Category: Salem Area Forecast

Christmas 2020

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

It’s Christmas Eve! I hope you all are doing very well!! It’s freezing cold outside. As of 2PM it was still only 32 degrees here in Salem!!!!! Tonight will be cold as well with temps falling back into the upper 20s across the valley.

Highlights for the coming week

1.) Christmas day is going to be cold with a drippy/wet afternoon. Not cold enough for snow (or ice) this time – just a cold light rain for us here in the valley. Watch for spots of ice due to the freezing fog tonight and Christmas morning as temps will be below freezing again. Temps SHOULD rise above freezing just before the rain starts tomorrow, so at this time I’m NOT expecting any freezing rain issues.

2.) The Gorge should see snow both tomorrow and again on Saturday, so take note of that if you need to head over I-84.

3.) Saturday will be rainy at times and breezy with several inches of mountain snow.

4.) Sunday should be mostly dry. Monday will totally dry, but quite cold.

5.) Another storm comes in Tuesday of next week. Don’t get too excited, but I’m keeping an eye on this one as snow levels could start out fairly low as this storm system moves in before we warm up. Again, not too excited about anything yet, but I will be watching for any changes with this storm and I should have an update for you all either Saturday or Sunday.

There you have it! Merry Christmas and have a wonderful time celebrating!!!!

December 18th

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

It’s been a busy week between work, Christmas shopping and a few family events. As promised in my last forecast, things have turned wetter over the past several days and the wet weather should continue for several more…

The biggest highlight is probably the rainfall we are expected to receive Saturday through Monday. This chart shows Salem receiving just over 3 inches between now and Monday night!

Saturday night and Sunday will be the wettest period with lots of steady, and at times heavy rain. This will also be the time to watch for some minor flooding. There’s currently a flood watch up for our region. I suspect the flooding will be contained to smaller creeks and streams and some of the more “typical” low laying areas, but keep an eye out just in case. Here’s what the next 7 days look like.

Highlights

1.) If you have to get things done outside then Saturday is your best bet with a few dry breaks during the day before the steady rain moves in Saturday night.

2.) Chilly air moving in will change our warm rain into a cold rain during the day on Monday. In fact, our high temp will likely be during the morning hours as we gradually cool through the day. By Monday night the snow levels will be down into the foothills and the Coast Range.

3.) Cold and dry leading up to Christmas.

4.) A chilly rain Christmas day. Yeah, that’s not real exciting, but unless it can somehow be colder than what is currently being predicted, I just don’t see anything other than a cold rain that day.

The Cascades

The Cascades will see rain for the majority of this incoming system; however, Christmas skiing will be saved thanks to the cold air arriving on the backside of this storm. 6 to 12 inches of new snow should fall Monday through Tuesday. More snow should fall late in the day on Christmas as well as the day after making for some excellent Christmas break skiing!!! Hoodoo currently has 41 inches at its base which is not too shabby for this time of year.

Take care and stay safe!!

December 11th

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

We’ve kicked off December on a rather dry note. 10 days in the bag and we have only received 20% of our usual rainfall. A very dry start to the month!! Of course these things tend to balance out, and sure enough the next couple of weeks look wet with lots of Cascade snow and plenty of valley rain.

Highlights

1.) This map shows about 2 to 3 inches of rain through Friday of next week with rain almost every single day.

2.) Both Saturday and Monday will be the only mostly dry times over the next 10 days. Keep this in mind if you’re wanting to do stuff outdoors.

3.) No big wind storms, flooding, snow or ice on our horizon; although there will be some snow and ice in the Gorge at times on Saturday night and Sunday morning should your travel plans take you out there – specifically east near Hood River and The Dalles.

4.) Large swells/waves are forecasted along the coast beginning on Sunday and lasting through at least the middle of next week. You can also expect gusty winds out at the coast with the storms coming in this week.

5.) Up in the Cascades 20 – 30″ of new snow now through next Friday! Best travel days will be Saturday and Monday as they will be drier. Thursday & Friday will be somewhat decent travel days in that there will be rain, not snow falling up in the passes. This also means Thursday & Friday may not be the best time to go skiing (unless you enjoy skiing in the rain lol). Nice to see that overall the snowpack will continue to grow this week.

There you have it. Fairly typical stormy December weather with rain down here and lots of mountain snow.

Take care and stay safe and healthy!!

November 2020

On By bryanweatherIn 2020, Archives, Monthly reports, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

I hope you all are enjoying the holiday season! Even with everything going on there is still much to be thankful for and much to enjoy. Just some quick words of encouragement from your local weatherman. 😉 Okay, moving on we have several dry or mostly dry days ahead with no sign of any big storms or arctic blasts, so with not much going on I figured it was a good time to recap November.

Highlights

November 2020 was not real exciting in terms of weather events. We had several days of wind & rain including a peak wind gust of 43mph on the 13th, but very few really wet storm systems. Perhaps the biggest highlight of the month was the good start to the mountain snow season up in the Cascades. It’s been several years since we have seen an early start like this. As of Monday, Hoodoo had 34 inches of snow which is well above normal for the end of November!! The final thing worth noting from the month would be the higher than normal amount of dry days (both foggy and sunny) which helped to keep our precipitation for the month slightly below normal.

Temperature

Warmest high temp was 68°  November 4th   

Coldest high temp was 39°  November 27th  

Warmest low temp was 58°  November 4th

Coldest low temp was 24°  November 9th

8 days with lows at or below freezing.

It’s been awhile, but we finally had a cooler than normal month.  November 2020 was 1.1° below normal.

Salem had 19 days with measurable precipitation with most of the action taking place mid month, but as mentioned, not very many wet storm systems at all. The wettest day of the month was the 13th with 1.21” of rain.   We ended November with 5.89″ of precip which is 90% of our average for the month, so yet another drier than average month.

Looking ahead

December is typically our wettest month of the year and one of our coldest. We will see what happens, but early indications are hinting at a cooler than normal month. As far as snow goes, December has not exactly been a big snow producer around here as of late. In fact, over the past decade February has actually been our snowiest month on average. Curious to see if that stays the same this year or if we get some good snowfall during December or January instead. Anyway, check out this graph of December snowfall going back to 2004.

Really only 2 years with any decent snowfall on this chart. I’m sure a lot of you remember 2008 when it snowed and snowed and snowed leading up to Christmas.  More recently in 2016 we had a nice December snowstorm, but overall December snowfall has not been all that common lately.  With that said, our chances seem to increase slightly during a La Nina.  Take it for what its’ worth, but I’m thinking we see some snow this December.  Just my gut feeling…   😉

Happy December!!!

Foggy days

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

Right on track the fog showed up today and kept temperatures down across the valley. We made it to a sizzling 41° for our high. We cool back down tonight. Saturday will likely be a near repeat. No reason to expect the sun will magically break through the fog this time of year – at least down in the valley.

Up in the Cascades it’s a whole different story in a pattern like this. Lots of sunshine over the fresh coating of snow. Check out these beautiful images from Hood and Hoodoo today!

The next 7 days

Fairly high confidence in the forecast for the next several days. Thursday (Thanksgiving) should be mostly dry, but there is a slight chance for an afternoon shower or two. Lower confidence for that day.

In case you need a refresher, I enjoy using different colors to represent the confidence I have in the forecast. For example a difficult forecast with a high probability of changing is going to be highlighted yellow while green highlighting indicates high confidence in my forecast staying on track.

The Cascades will have a little bit of snow Sun & Mon, but overall not too bad for traveling. Tue night through Thanksgiving morning will be pretty snowy with another 10 to 15 inches of new snow for the ski resorts.

Have a great weekend!!!!

Midweek update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

Another stormy day out there today. Winds have not been too crazy with gusts no higher than 30 -35mph, but plenty of rain. As I write this we have a band of rain rolling through with a peak of sun making for a pretty neat to scene. 🙂

Wednesday & Thursday: Showers & sunbreaks, breezy at times with brief downpours. Maybe even a thundershower or two with some small hail mixed in. Wednesday will be the wetter of the two days.

The Cascades

Snow levels fall down below pass level late tonight. 10 – 15 inches of new snow for ski resorts by the time Friday rolls around. Since I don’t have my own graphics department lol, I borrowed this from Mark Nelson at Fox 12 Oregon. You can see just how healthy the snowpack is compared to the past 10 years for this early in the season.

Friday & Saturday both look dry, so a nice two day break from the rain before another system rolls in on Sunday. I should note there will be a fair amount of fog and clouds on these two dry days – not exactly a super sunny period, but dry nevertheless.

Thanksgiving week is the week after (already!!!) and it’s looking stormy and wet with more mountain snow & valley rain.

According to plan

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Fox 12 Weather provided this nice graphic showing peak wind gusts from our storm Friday morning.

My forecast of 35 – 50mph turned fairly well and in the tricky world of forecasting I will jot this down as a win. 🙂

Storm number two is rolling in now. The rest of today is going to be very wet with steady rain increasing through the day and turning heavy tonight. Expect well over an inch of rain to fall by this time tomorrow. Southerly winds pick up tonight as well with gusts 30 – 40mph.

The Next 7 Days

1.) Sunday still looks like the calmest day with scattered showers, sunbreaks, and fairly light winds.

2.) Monday: Rainy through the early afternoon. Mild and breezy. Temps will likely top out around 60°.

3.) Tuesday: Still watching the potential for another round of strong winds and heavy rain, but lots still up in the air with this system. Very stormy along the coast.

4.) Wed & Thu: Showers, breezy, and lots of mountain snow. Assuming businesses are allowed to operate, ski resorts should have one of the best starts to the ski season in years with close to 30 inches of snow currently being reported at Hoodoo and more on the way later this week. There will be some melting Sun – Tue with the milder weather, but overall it looks like we are off on the right track in the snowpack department!!

Have a fantastic weekend!