Happy Wednesday! Three short highlights for those short on time with more details below.

1.) We’re in the midst of a very calm and low key weather pattern. Temperatures continue to vary each day depending on winds, cloud cover, and fog. Highs ranging from the mid 5os (like we saw just a few days ago) down to the 30s (like we are seeing today). Lows remain more consistent continuing to drop into the upper 20s or low 30s each night. This weather pattern lasts through next Wednesday.

2.) Very strong gusty east winds develop in the Columbia River Gorge Thursday, and last through Sunday. Areas near 205 eastward will be effected the most all the way through the west end of the gorge.

3.) A change to wetter (and possibly colder) weather occurs next Wednesday or Thursday. Too far out for details, but weather models are indicating the large area of high pressure currently over us is going to retrograde (meaning slide west) allowing colder air to approach the Pacific Northwest.

Details

This map below shows what the atmosphere looks like at around 18,000 feet up today.

It’s extremely warm up above us. In summertime, this same pattern would easily give us 90s or even a 100 degree day. See what a difference the sun angel and length of day can make! Instead we are stuck in a cold layer of fog. Look at the satellite image from earlier today.

Fog is stuck in the Willamette Valley while the rest of the state basks in sunshine.

Typically it gets colder higher up you go in an airmass, and that is still true today. The thing is, we have two separate airmasses at play here. The first airmass is our inversion layer. Underneath this blanket of fog, it does get colder the higher up you go, but once you pop out above the fog and enter into the second airmass above us, temperatures warm dramatically. Check out the wild inversion going on right now.

When is the last time you saw Government Camp on Mount Hood more than 20 degrees warmer than Salem? It’s a beautiful day up on the mountain! Santiam Pass is also very mild sitting at a balmy 63°.

If you view this post on the website (instead of the email version), then you can use the slider tool below to show the dramatic change expected next week. The first image shows the atmosphere today. Find Oregon on the map, and notice the very warm anomaly over us represented by the warm brown and deep red colors. The second image shows us what it looks like ten days later – much cooler/colder for sure!

No valley snow predictions yet. Might not snow at all here in the valley, but a colder airmass is on the way for the PNW, and more importantly, additional mountain snow.

Fortunately, we got all that mountain snow last week (24 to 30 inches) allowing resorts to open limited terrain during this long dry stretch. If you are in the snow recreation industry then you know it’s been an extremely tough season though, but help is on the way again. Just need to hang in there for about 7 or 8 more days…

I plan to update you all again once the details for later next week start to come into view. For now, enjoy the week and as always, stay safe out there!

Very short post on this rainy and windy night providing a heads up for what should be a stormy Wednesday and chilly couple of days.

Wednesday in particular looks stormy. Gusty winds to 40mph, small hail, downpours, thunder and lightning, and even some wet snow are all possible Wednesday. Brief sunbreaks between showers, but plan on intense downpours ruling the day. Here’s couple of estimated radar images revealing what looks like a line of heavier rain moving through roughly between 9AM and noon Wednesday. Click for a closer look. 🙂

Snow levels drop to 1000 to 1500 feet Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Coast Range locations and communities up the Santiam River Canyon (Mill City, Gates etc.) could all see a little dusting of wet snow during this time frame. Salem’s high on Thursday will top out only around 43°.

Cascade passes get the brunt of this series of storms with 18 to 26″ of snow falling now through Friday morning. Now through Wednesday night will be the worse travel times, but snow showers continue right into Friday morning before finally tapering off. Hopefully this will be enough for ski resorts to open up.

We have a mostly dry weekend ahead for the mountains which would make getting to the snow and ski parks much easier come Friday afternoon through Sunday.

Stay safe and happy Wednesday! 🙂

The weather action is picking up with several different storms arriving over the next week. I’ve got a nice new extended forecast for you all. These graphics are better at communicating the time of day rain can be expected. For example, you can see Tuesday morning should be dry, but rain will move in during the afternoon. Remember you can click on images for a closer view. 🙂

Highlights

Snow levels dip pretty low for the first time this winter Thursday morning through early Friday morning. During this time period, snow showers could fall in the Coast Range and other foothill locations like Silver Creek Falls.

It will also be a wet week. No flooding, but I expect multiple rounds of rain and heavy showers in the coming week. Estimated precip totals show a widespread soaking over the course of the next several days which is good news.

The Cascades

Perhaps even better news is that these storms will bring the snowiest weather the Cascades have seen all winter. It’s been one of the worst ski seasons ever, and the snowpack is severely behind schedule, but this parade of storms will finally bring much needed snow and hopefully enough to open more terrain for the snow parks.

This next map shows estimated snowfall totals through Friday the 9th. Ignore the snow showing up in the Willamette Valley as it tends to overdo the low snow levels. The main takeaways are: lots of mountain snow (3 to maybe 4 feet of it), and snow levels will be low enough for the Coast Range and foothills to see a little bit of snow.

The Cascades will be snow covered the majority of the time Sunday through Friday. Best times to travel the Cascades without too much snowfall would be today, Sunday late morning and afternoon, and Monday through Tuesday morning. Tuesday evening through Thursday night look to be the very snowiest timeframe with heavy snow likely in the passes.

Bottom line is it’s going to be cooler, there will be plenty of valley rain, and (finally) lots of mountain snow. Take care, happy new year again, and stay safe out there!

A brief post during this festive week between Christmas and New Year’s Day. No fun charts or maps today. Just wanted to highlight a few travel concerns as we look towards the new year.

The first area of concern is the Columbia River Gorge and Basin between Thursday morning and Friday morning. A light wintry mix of freezing rain or sleet should begin around 10AM to 1PM (from south to north) on Thursday. Freezing rain ends early Friday afternoon.

Locations I’m thinking could be impacted by ice include but are not limited to: highway 197 around Dufur, 97 near Wasco, and I-84 out towards Hermiston (maybe Pendleton), and as far west as Cascade Locks. Warmer air at the surface moves in late Friday afternoon or evening ending the threat for ice in the Columbia River Basin.

The coast is our second area of concern where higher than usual waves will coincide with the “King Tides” on Saturday. Could be decent wave watching weather Saturday afternoon, but use caution as wind gusts reach 40 to 50mph and heavy showers reduce visibility at times along our rugged coastline.

Salem area forecast

WED: Another very cold morning. Lows around 26 – 28° and highs in the low to mid 40s. Increasing clouds, but dry.

THU (New Year’s Day): Mostly cloudy and chilly. High only near 40°. Light rain during the afternoon.

FRI: Mostly cloudy with a light shower or two. Milder, high of 52°.

SAT: Showers throughout the day and windy. Wind gusts 30 to 40mph. High around 54°.

SUN: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and sunbreaks. High near 50°.

MON: A mostly dry day, but plenty of clouds around. Highs in the upper 40s.

Enjoy the extra time off for those of you who get some extra time off. Party and drive safely, and happy new year!!! 🙂

Shortest post ever 🙂 Windstorm scenario has chilled out thankfully, and we are left with just breezy winds today. Gusts should stay below 40mph. No big deal, but was a close call, and the most weather model disagreement I have probably ever seen going down to the last minute. Good to always be prepared anyway. Merry Christmas!!

The update I promised, and it’s one of the tougher updates I’ve ever done. Tough because so many people have plans this week for Christmas, and tough because I’m still not sure what will happen, and that can feel frustrating. The rest of today and Tuesday will feature more of the same: breezy at times, sunbreaks, showers. The steadiest rain will occur this evening around 4 to 8pm tonight. Now for the tough part.

In my last update, I mentioned the potential for strong winds in the Cascades and over in central Oregon. It’s looking more likely that those strong winds could also move through the Willamette Valley. Please carefully read through these important highlights:

Highlights

1.) A very small low pressure system is expected to move from south to north Wednesday morning. It’s small, but locations near the path will experience strong and damaging wind gusts. That part seems certain. The path the storm takes is still very uncertain.

2.) Understand that highways may close Wednesday and stay closed through at least part of Christmas day due to downed trees or power lines. Again, please consider traveling sooner rather than later if you have the option to avoid closed highways. If you end up leaving early and nothing happens, I doubt you will regret it, but if you miss celebrating Christmas with family because every highway crossing the Cascades is closed, then it’s a much sadder story.

3.) Because it’s Christmas this week, and due to the potential for disruptive weather, I will provide an additional update as soon as things become more clear.

4.) Be prepared for power outages on Wednesday that could last through the week.

5.) This will be a quick hitting storm (if it does hit us). Calm weather returns Wednesday evening. Thursday through next Tuesday (the 30th) look extremely calm. We just have to hope we either dodge this storm, or make it through it, and then it will be smooth sailing.

6.) Lastly, keep in mind nothing is final yet. More changes to come.

Below are three images showing top wind gust speeds for Wednesday. See why this is a tough call? Some of these outcomes would be devastating, some would limit the strong winds to the mountain passes and central Oregon still, and some would be no big deal whatsoever.

Rest of week details

Thursday (Christmas Day): Wet with light rain much of the day. High of 48°.

Friday and Saturday: Scattered showers with sunbreaks. Highs in the upper 40s.

Sun – Tue: Foggy, maybe some afternoon sunbreaks. Dry. Highs in the lower 40s, and lows near freezing.

The Cascades

Christmas will probably be the snowiest day in the passes, but snow showers will persist through Saturday. Sunny and beautiful Sunday through next Tuesday! Unfortunately, I only see around a foot of new snow this week which is probably not enough to open new terrain.

Stay safe and keep an eye out for another update!