Quick highlights

• Numerous thunderstorms over and east of the Cascades. Some will likely reach severe status with strong winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and possibly large hail.
• Very slight chance storms make it all the way to Salem or the I-5 quarter. Best chance is east of I-5.
• A few light showers tonight and Friday morning.

Details

These thunderstorms will form generally east of the Cascades, cross the mountains, and head into the foothills and far eastern Willamette Valley before dying off. I just don’t see good enough support to keep the storms alive much past the foothills.

Mill City, Scotts Mills, Silver Creek Falls, Gates, Detroit, Lyons, possibly even Scio and the Stayton/Sublimity area, and Sweet Home all stand a much better chance of experiencing a thunderstorm head on. These could include frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain.

The rest of the Willamette Valley (Salem, Keizer, Woodburn) should see lightning, but the storms themselves will be several miles off to our east and or will dry over us as in the form of a regular shower.

Basically, the further east you are, the higher chance you have of seeing a storm. It will be an interesting day from a weather man’s perspective watching the storms develop, head east towards us, and then die out just before reaching us. There remains a slight chance storms hold together and hit the valley, but that chance is very low.

Timing

Probably 3 to 9pm for the locations mentioned above and adjacent areas. This slideshow shows this progression of the storms fairly well.

You can see how strong they look before reaching the Cascades, and they will put on quite a show over the mountains and in the foothills, but then they die off quickly once they hit the valley.

Stay safe and have a wonderful day today! Enjoy any light shows we end up getting.

Quick highlights

• Mostly dry weather over the next 7 days.
• A few areas could see thunderstorms. Storms have the potential to be on the strong side (watching Thursday in particular).
• A few showers Friday before a drying trend sets in.

Forecast

Details

1.) For the remainder of today expect a continuing chance for a rain shower or maybe even a thunderstorm through about 10pm. Highest chance continues to be near the Coast Range.

2.) Dry on Wednesday and mostly sunny.

3.) Thursday: Mostly sunny, but there’s a chance for evening thunderstorms. Storms will form east of the Cascades, and the steering flow aloft will be from the east/southeast that day. Furthermore, these storms will have a lot of support from the atmosphere making it easier for them to move right into the Willamette Valley Thursday evening. I’ll be watching closely. Just keep in mind that Thursday evening could turn into something impactful.

4.) Friday will feature some morning showers leading to a partly cloudy, but dry afternoon and evening.

5.) Saturday: Partly cloudy and dry.

6.) Sunday: Start of a warming trend. Highs near 80. Monday and Tuesday of next week will be on the warmer/hot side with sunny skies and highs climbing to the upper 80s by Tuesday.

Cascades and Central Oregon

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible both Wednesday and Thursday. If you are camping, hiking, traveling, or just going to be anywhere from Crater Lake up to Hood, and from Sisters, Bend, Redmond over to John Day and Hell’s Canyon or anywhere in between then pay attention to the forecast and what you see with your own eyes both these days. Between now and Thursday night, someone in Oregon is going to get slammed by strong storms. If I get around to it, I’ll put out another update Wednesday evening.

Take care and have a wonderful rest of your day!

Good morning! Have a great day out there! I really wanted to get an update out sooner, but life has been busy and I hate to sacrifice quality. 🙂

Tuesday

Dry and mostly sunny day today, slight chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Highs in the upper 70s, but a quick cooldown this evening. Higher chance for a thunderstorm in the Cascades and north of Portland.

Wednesday

Widespread showers during the morning through about lunchtime. Probably a good quarter inch to half inch making for a much needed spring soaking. Mostly dry in the afternoon with just a slight chance of a PM shower. High: 67°.

Thursday

Lots of cloud cover, but dry. Sprinkles in the northern Coast Range, and coastline, and up around Portland. High: 70°.

Friday and Saturday

Higher chance for scattered showers. Sunbreaks at times – certainly not a washout. More dry times than wet. Lows in the mid 40s each morning, and highs in the upper 60s.

Sunday

Dry again. Low of 46°, and highs near 70. Partly cloudy.

Have a great and safe day out there!

Tonight through Saturday evening we have a slight chance for a few rain showers and maybe even a stray thunderstorm. The chance is small, and many of us will probably stay dry, but keep this possibility in mind. It’s high enough that it was worth posting about.

I’ve shared four different estimated radar images from four different weather models. Scroll through them to get an idea of what we are looking at. Most of these are for the overnight hours or early morning hours on Saturday.

What I see is exactly what I stated above: a slight chance for a rain shower, but mostly dry. This pattern can produce stray thunderstorms too, so I threw that into the forecast.

Past experiences with similar setups tells me shower chances will linger through Saturday evening. If a shower or storm does roll through, know that it will pass fairly quickly with dry weather moving back in shortly after.

Sunday: Will be hot, especially for early May. Highs in the upper 80s. Might be a good idea to open some windows Saturday night to cool down the house before the heat kicks in Sunday.

Monday – Friday: Low 80s down to the mid 70s for highs all week long. Morning clouds will be the biggest factor in keeping highs down. Pretty simple, the longer the clouds stick around, the cooler it will be that day. Breezy at times – just like we see in summer. Currently, Monday looks to be the breeziest day next week.

Enjoy the warm weather!

Springtime weather patterns are tricky to forecast, and just a few days ago it was looking like Saturday and Sunday would be wet, but that has changed (for the better). I suppose it’s better to forecast a wet weekend and then have it turn out to be dry than the other way around lol. All the details are below.

Details

Rest of today: A slight chance for an afternoon downpour, but mostly dry. Highs in the upper 50s. Better chance of a frost or freeze tonight thanks to the cold airmass still in place and clear skies expected tonight. Lows 32 to 35°.

Friday: After the cold start to the day, partly cloudy skies with ample sunbreaks will warm us into the low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday: Highs in the upper 60s to near 70°. Partly cloudy skies and only a slight chance for a shower. I can’t guarantee a totally dry weekend for everyone west of the Cascades, but the majority of us will stay dry with increasing clouds at times.

After Friday morning, our lows will be done flirting with the freezing mark, so sensitive plants outside will once again be safe. Lows over the weekend will be in the low 40s.

Monday – Wednesday: Monday begins dry and even mostly sunny, but showers increase late in the day. We could even see a thunderstorm Monday evening. Showers persist through Wednesday. Highs near 70 Monday, and lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

That’s it for now. I see the mountains scored well over a foot to nearly two feet of snow (depending on elevation). It was much needed! I’ll leave you with a couple photos from Hoodoo today. Hard to beat a sunny day over a fresh snowfall. 🙂

Today was chilly! Cloudy, breezy, and cold. Temperatures at noon looked like this:

Brrrr! barely 50° in the middle of April! The next few days will continue to feature winter like conditions.

Details

Tonight through Wednesday morning

Steady rain increases tonight and lasts through much of the night. Nearly an inch just tonight! Winds will gust around 35mph and up to 40 in some spots as the cold front approaches. A windy night! Maybe a power outage or two as trees have regained much of their foliage.

Behind the cold front, temperatures drop dramatically. Probably 8 to 10 degrees within a few hours putting us into the low 40s or even upper 30s Wednesday morning. This next image for 6AM shows the snow level falling quite low behind the front. I’m willing to bet that Silver Creek Falls and locations in the foothills on the east side of the Willamette Valley (Mill City, Gates etc.) will see at least snow falling in the air, and perhaps a slushy coating during the early morning hours. The rest of us, just a cold rain.

Wednesday afternoon and evening

Plenty of moisture, sunbreaks, and cold air aloft will provide us with the right atmosphere for downpours, thundershowers, and showers with small hail. It will be an active afternoon around here with the weather changing frequently throughout the day. Temps ranging from the mid 50s under the warm April sunbreaks down to the lower 40s under the heavy showers of rain, hail, and graupel.

This image for 7pm shows lots of heavy showers roaming around the mid valley, and gives us a decent idea of what the afternoon and evening will look like. It also shows large gaps between the showers indicating nice sunbreaks at times. Again, plan on rapid changes throughout the day.

Wednesday night

A late season frost is expected Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Lows will range from 32 to 37 degrees depending on your location. Be sure to protect your sensitive plants from the frosty/freezing temperatures. I know I’ll be covering a few things up that night.

Thursday

Numerous sunbreaks, but a few showers and downpours are still likely, especially during the afternoon. High of 57°. Plan on another frosty night Thursday night.

Friday

Morning fog and spots of frost. Afternoon sunshine will warm us up to the low 60s.

Saturday

A dry morning is possible, but showers and rain increase as the day goes on. Highs reaching the low 60s.

Sunday and Monday

Showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

The Cascades

Lots of snow up in the Cascades. 14 to 24 inches with more falling the higher up in elevation you go. Not good weather for hikes or early season fishing trips to the Cascade lakes. Be prepared for snowy passes tonight through Thursday morning. Temperatures will be in the 20s at night and low 30s during the day. Snow level near a 1000 feet early Wednesday morning, but climbing to 2000 feet during the day.

Lots going on. Enjoy the wintry weather the best you can, and have an excellent and safe Wednesday!!