Category: Salem Area Forecast

More snow than I thought

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

Aww yes, good times….. Winter is here apparently. I’m a grown man, and I know when I’m wrong. I’m clearly wrong. The snow is falling hard out there and even though the temps are all above freezing, the snow is falling faster than it’s melting and now roads in in parts of Salem, specifically west Salem are turning white! These pics below are from west Salem (elevation around 230′).

The snow SHOULD still SLOWLY melt away tonight. Look for another update tonight, but yes. We are getting snow; although it’s still heavily favoring the western side of the valley, that part of my forecast is still holding true.

I expect poor driving conditions for the remainder of the day now for areas receiving snow, and watch for ice tonight!

Be safe and drive carefully!!

The No snow Monday night update :(

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A real quick update tonight.

As mentioned in my previous forecast, temps really need to drop around 30° or colder tonight if we want it to snow tomorrow and that’s probably not going to happen. In this particular setup the west side of the Willamette Valley does better than the east side. There are a few reasons for that, but basically cool air blowing out of the gorge sorta pools up against the Coast Range allowing those communities to be colder than the rest of the valley. Yes, that is a real thing 🙂 😉

Take a look at this snow map showing snow in the Coast Range and for the locations and cities on the western edge of the valley. Salem is the big gold colored dot. It shows us getting some snow, but I’m not buying it at all. This same weather model has temperatures around 36 degrees during this same exact time which is why I’m not buying into snow here in Salem. Communities like Dallas, Amity, Newberg, and up towards Forest Grove and Banks could all score some snowfall with this storm. Precip should move in between 11AM and 2PM.

Here’s a forecasted radar image for tomorrow at around ***AM It clearly shows……

Bottom line is we will not see accumulating snow here in Salem tomorrow. Sorry, but we simply don’t have cold enough air in place. We will likely see snow in the air, maybe even a lot snow flying through the air, but it won’t be sticking. Perhaps if we are lucky, some brief accumulations of slush in spots, but nothing more than that.

If we wake up in the morning and temps are somehow in the 20s or even around 30, then I will be making drastic changes, but for now my thoughts are the same: no snow and no snow day here in Salem or Keizer tomorrow.

Progressing nicely.

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Well, no major surprises yesterday. As forecasted, a very cold rain fell through most of the Sunday with snow mixing in above 500 – 1000 feet with plenty of snow falling in both the Cascades and the Coast Range. The airmass outside this morning is chilly. Check out area temps as of 8AM.

There are pretty clear signals that we will continue to stay under the influence of cool airmasses for at least the next 7 days. I see several more chances for snow coming up this week as well; although, at this time none of them are looking real solid. Here’s my latest thoughts.

The rest of today/tonight: We could see a brief snow shower, but do not expect accumulation. We have a better chance of seeing ice pellets or even hail accumulate today than we do with snow, and even that chance is minimal.

Tuesday: It really comes down to how cold we get tonight. If we can get down to 30° or colder, then I believe we have a decent shot at snow. The problem is we have no real source of cold air to draw from, and we don’t have arctic air in place either like we have had for past snowstorms. The precipitation is arriving during the daytime on Tuesday which is why it’s crucial (if you want snow) that we start the day off cold. I’m still leaning towards no accumulating snow except maybe briefly in the highest hills around town (west and south Salem). Could be a situation where we see lots of snow falling through the air, but not sticking here in town. I’ll have an update tonight and possibly again tomorrow morning as we get closer.

Wed & Thu: Low snow levels continue. Not expecting much (if anything) during this time either, but will keep an eye on things in case changes pop up.

Fri: Will likely end up being a similar to what we are seeing today, but with maybe a little more precip, and slightly cooler temps. Those two changes equal a better shot at seeing some light dustings of snow around town.

Sun: Another cold system comes in bringing low snow levels again… This is a long ways off, so not too concerned about it yet, but you get the idea – low snow levels are here to stay for awhile which means lots of updates and things to keep a close watch on.

Finally, it should go without saying, but both the Coast Range and the Cascades will be getting lots and lots of snow in this cool & damp pattern. Keep this in mind when traveling as almost every highway in the state outside of the Willamette Valley will be prone to snowfall most of this coming week.

Take care and happy Monday!!

Way above average and the chance for snow

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

This title refers to both precipitation and temperature. We have had some very mild (mild by January standards) high temps. Two thirds of the way through the month and we are 4.4° above normal!!! Currently we are in one of our top 10 warmest Januarys on record. Yikes!! On the precip side of things it’s been a dry several of days; however, the first 12 days were unusually wet. Salem has had 6.88″ so far which puts us at 157% of normal for this point in the month.

Change is in the air

If you were up and outside this morning, then you likely noticed changes in our airmass have already begun to taken place. Check out the chilly morning temps around the region as of 7AM.

We are headed for a much cooler end to January. In fact this past week has already been a little bit cooler; however, even chillier air will work it’s way in over the next few days. Details below:

Highlights

1.) Sunday. Hmmm, I’ve seen and heard lots of rumors about snow this day, but meh, I’m not all that impressed. Unless something changes, I’m going with a very cold rain with snow mixing in at times. It’s possible that it falls as all snow early tomorrow morning for a little while, but it’s going to be extremely difficult for it to accumulate on the valley floor as temperatures are going to likely stay a few degrees above freezing. There’s a better shot at seeing a brief coating of snow 500 to 1000 feet – maybe up to an inch. A few inches of snow are possible above 1000′.

2.) Sunday night/Monday could possibly give a few of us a light dusting of snow if we’re lucky as Monday will be a colder version of our typical sunbreak and shower type of day. Still no chance of any widespread or major accumulation.

3.) Watching Tuesday and Wednesday very closely as a storm will be moving in from a more favorable direction. Favorable at least if you are rooting for valley snow. 😉 We will have cool air already in place and the storm moving in has a bit of cool air with it as well. Of course we need just about everything to line up just right for snow around here, so don’t get too excited yet. At this time, Tuesday is looking like it could be our best shot at sticking snow this entire winter…

4.) The rest of next week we stay in a very low snow level pattern with lots of snow in the Coast Range, the Cascades, and the foothills around the valley. A very chilly and wet pattern for sure. Great for building the snowpack!

I’ll be updating much more frequently this coming week, so keep an eye out for those and keep an eye out for some snowflakes. 🙂

Take care and stay warm!

Wet

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Good and happy Monday morning!!!! 11 days into the month and January is running well above normal in the precip department. We have had several wet storm systems and we have a couple more coming up this week. Take a look at the next 7 days

The heaviest rain will fall during the nighttime hours tonight through tomorrow morning and again the same story Tuesday night. Winds will also be quite gusty Tuesday and Wednesday with gusts 35 to 45mph (maybe a gust to 50 here and there Tuesday night). I suspect 2 – 3 inches fall between now and Wednesday evening here in the valley. This will be a warm rain event, so no snow in the mountains unfortunately.

The only other weather event happening over the next 8 days will be some light rain falling Friday; otherwise, the rest of the next several days should be basically dry and quiet through at least next Monday or Tuesday.

The Coast

The coast should see winds up to 65mph Tuesday and Wednesday along with 3 to 4 inches of rain, and waves topping out 30 to 40 feet! It’s going to be an extremely stormy couple of days at the good ol’ Oregon coast.

There you have it! Watch for localized flooding over the next few days with this heavy rain, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a few people lost power with the wind Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Looking further ahead, it appears as though the second half of January might turn a bit more exciting and maybe a bit cooler too ( a nice little tease hehe), but for now the only highlight worth mentioning are these couple of very wet & windy storms. Take care!!

An early January washout

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

2021 is starting off on a stormy note. For starters the next 12 to 16 hours are going to be quite windy. Gusts of 35 to 45mph seem likely for the mid Willamette Valley with higher gusts of course along the coast.

The rainfall will be significant over the next few days as well. Nearly 2 inches of rain should fall now through Sunday.

The daylight hours on Sunday will bring a nice but brief break in the rain before more rain moves in Sunday night. Monday’s going to be another soaker with an additional inch of rain falling with that system. For all the visual learners out there (like myself) I have a chart showing these estimated rain totals for now through Tuesday morning.

The main take away is it’s going to be very wet. The rest of the week looks wet too with another storm moving in on Wednesday and I’m watching for the possibility of another storm coming in next Friday or Saturday. An active start to the new year for sure.

THE CASCADES

Lots of snow coming up for the Cascades as shown above. I’m forecasting at least 3 feet for most of the ski resorts by the end of next week – maybe even more.

THE COAST

The final highlight for this coming week will be the very large swells and waves out along the coast. Waves should reach heights of at least 30 (if not higher) every day now through Wednesday. An impressive stretch of large waves out there should you have the opportunity to get away and go storm watch! 🙂

Have a nice weekend and enjoy the stormy weather!!!

Super fast update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

I apologize for the lack of updates. It’s been a busy, but fun week with family and friends. We had a chance to enjoy the snow up in the Cascades, and then just yesterday we had the opportunity to travel to the Oregon Coast for the day. Beautiful weather over there yesterday!!

Highlights

1.) Several days ago I mentioned the possibility of low snow levels today. I stated that I wasn’t too excited about anything happening, and sure enough today we have nothing but cloudy skies and some chilly air – nothing more….

2.) Tomorrow will be wet, especially during the afternoon hours with a period of moderate to heavy rain moving in and some gusty winds.

3.) A few showers Thursday

4.) Friday will likely start off mostly dry before rain moves in late in the day.

5.) I should have a more detailed outlook in the next few days, but the main takeaway is that January will be starting off on a very stormy note with several rounds of strong winds, lots of rain, and copious amounts of mountain snow beginning Saturday and lasting through the at least the first 9 days of the month. Check out the estimated total precip for now through Saturday January 9th. 4 to 5 inches of rain for the Mid-Willamette Valley with up to 10 inches in the Coast Range! Much of this is expected to fall as snow up in the Cascades. We are looking at maybe several feet of new snow next week for the ski resorts. Busy and wild times are coming!!!