Category: Salem Area Forecast

Active weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A quick update regarding our wet weather. Currently, I hope you are enjoying the nice dry break we are seeing right now. In fact, we should have several more hours of dry, increasingly humid, and mild conditions with temps reaching the 70s this afternoon; however, a very moist “slug” of moisture is posed to move in during the later evening hours. Right now I’m thinking rain moves in after 6PM. Rain continues Saturday night through most of Sunday. Expect Sunday to be very wet. The rain tonight and tomorrow is really going to favor the coast, Coast Range, and the western half of the Willamette Valley. This rainfall map (through Monday evening) shows this well.

You can also see tonight’s storm system moving towards us on satellite by using the link below:

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=conus&x=6616&y=3047.3333740234375&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
  • We should see a few more breaks in the rain on Monday with showers increasing late in the day along with an elevated chance for thunderstorms over the Cascades.
  • Sunbreaks, PM showers, and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening time frame contains our best bet at seeing thunderstorms around here. Thunderstorms will be more likely the further north you go, but Salem should still at least see some nice downpours this day. We dry out quickly Tuesday evening after roughly 6PM. All this rain is going to add up. This map shows the expected rainfall through Tuesday night. This is on top of the nice rainfall we saw Friday!
  • After the rain we dry up on Wed with AM clouds & PM sun. Highs in the upper 70s.
  • Thu – next weekend will be very summer like as highs climb into the 80s with lots of sunshine!

Have a great weekend and stay safe!

Weekend forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

First off I have to say the showers this week have underperformed just a little. Salem has officially picked up a mere 0.03″ of rain since this cooler & “wetter” weather began back on Saturday.

The main “rain event” from the start has been and still is looking to be Friday through next Tuesday as several waves of moisture ride up into western Oregon. Trying to pinpoint exactly when these waves of moisture will show up is proving to be more difficult than usual due to the trajectory/path of this storm system. The main thing to keep in mind is we will have several rounds of steady rainfall Sat through Tue with breaks of dry weather mixed in between. There will also be a chance for thunder Sun – Tue. Below is the forecasted total precipitation through Monday night from both of the major weather models.

It appears we are still on track to pick up at least an inch to maybe even over an inch and a half of rain in the coming days which would be great news for our drought!

A few quick highlights

1.) Thursday: Unfortunately, this day has gone from being “totally dry” to “mostly dry with a slight chance of a sprinkle.” Nothing too heavy, but just enough to prevent it from being totally dry.

2.) Friday’s going to be wet with periods of rain. More rain the further north you go.

3.) Sat – Tue: Humid, mild, and fairly wet with periods of rain and maybe even a thunderstorm or two.

In related news it looks like the radar is up and running a day early! You can track the showers out there with this link.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RTX-N0Q-1-24

Happy “Hump Day!” and enjoy the cooler weather while it lasts. I imagine summer weather will return in no time…

Changes in the forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

First off, today has been a great example of what “a mostly dry day” looks like. In my previous forecast I mentioned we would likely see some drizzle or a few sprinkles and to not cancel your outdoor plans, and nothing more than a few sprinkles is exactly what has happened today. Nice to see a forecast come through 🙂

Moving on I’ve noticed some really good trends in the forecast lately. Just two days ago it was looking like sprinkles would be about the best we could hope for in the coming week, but now it appears as though we will pick up much more than that.

Extended Forecast

Highlights

1.) Big changes in Sunday’s forecast with this storm system coming in just south enough now to clip Salem. Expect more rain further north in the Portland area while Eugene and points south should remain basically dry. Right here in Salem be on the lookout for some heavy afternoon showers along with gusty winds. Gusts over 30mph are possible. Don’t be shocked to hear some thunder with the showers either.

2.) Monday: Lots of clouds, a few sunbreaks, but really nothing more than a few sprinkles at most. Basically dry.

3.) Tuesday & Wednesday. Partly cloudy with PM showers. Showers will favor the coast, Coast Range, and the Cascades. Slight chance for a thunderstorm or two. Because the showers will be scattered in nature, there’s a chance some of you stay mostly dry these two days while others experience a brief soaking.

4.) Thursday: Partly sunny and dry. The best day of the week to be outdoors – assuming you wish to stay dry lol 😉

5.) Friday: Periods of light rain.

6.) Next weekend: Lower confidence, but as of right now, both Saturday and Sunday feature a decent chance of seeing frequent showers, and depending on the track of this system, maybe a few thunderstorms too.

Overall the forecast has trended quite a bit wetter for both tomorrow and much of next week. The map below shows the forecasted total precip now through next Sunday.

Basically if this materializes everyone here in the valley should pick up at least an inch of rain over the next 8 days with more in the mountains and along the coast. Even central and eastern Oregon should get in on the action with rain expected over there as well. This is really good news for our drought conditions, and we need it! Below is an up to date version of the map I shared a few days ago. It shows total rainfall in inches here in Salem since March 1st versus the total we should be at.

This shows we are the better part of 5 inches below normal. So yes, we do need the rain!

On a side note, one of the primary radars used to detect rain in western Oregon is down for repairs until at least Thursday. This means the little rain maps on the apps you use and some of their hour by hour forecasts may not be as accurate as usual. Just fyi and something to keep in mind. With the increase in active weather I will likely have additional updates for you in the coming days as things change.

I hope you all are having a wonderful weekend! Stay safe!

Brutal heat, May 2021, and a quick look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn 2021, Extra!!, Monthly reports, Salem Area Forecast, Weather Year 2020/2021Leave a comment

First off I would like to recognize the brief, but major heatwave we just experienced. Very rare to see temps so hot this early in the season. Check out the scorching high temperatures we experienced on Tuesday. Lots of new records!

Another nice little graphic I’m borrowing from Fox 12 Oregon showing some of the new records set around the region this past Tuesday.

A significant warm spell for so early in the season, and for those of us who work either outdoors or in buildings with no AC it has been a brutal few days!

Moving on, let’s recap May 2021. Some things just don’t change with yet another very dry month here in Salem. A lack of significant rainfall kept us at 42% of our normal precip for the month (.94 inches). We also ended on the warmer side of things at 2.48° above normal. In the meteorological community, the official spring season is from March 1st through May 31st. This spring will go down as the 8th driest on record here in Salem!

Below is a graph I made showing total rainfall since March started (the blue line) versus our normal cumulative rainfall (the green line). It’s easy to see that since March begun we have fallen further and further behind normal, and until we get some significant rainfall, this gap will continue to grow.

Unless we have a crazy wet summer, our drought conditions will only continue to worsen. Again, keep in mind a drought does not equal or guarantee a bad fire season, but it definitely helps set the stage for one. As much as it kills me to say this, hopefully we can manage a few summertime soakings to help minimize the fire threat.

Extended Forecast

Not a whole lot to report on. We do have some much cooler weather on tap for Saturday through most of next week. We even have a chance for some really light rain/drizzle Saturday.

Main points to know:

  • Light rain/drizzle is possible Saturday, but don’t let it stop you from going outdoors. This will not be a washout type of day at all. Wetter up in the both the Coast Range and Cascades though if your plans take you there…
  • No sign of a rainy or real wet day at all. Sure we will see a few sprinkles, but nothing which will really make a dent in our drought.
  • Most of next week will be cool with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows dipping back down into the upper 40s at night!
  • No sign of another heatwave anytime soon…

Take care, stay safe, and have a fantastic rest of your week!!

Extended forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A quick write up for you during my lunchbreak. We have a slight chance of some thunder this afternoon plus I figured I would highlight the good and bad days for out door activities and projects as we have few rainy days on tap this week.

Highlights

  • The rest of today is going to be (for the most part) wet. Maybe a rumble of thunder or two later this afternoon along with a few downpours.
  • A few showers on Tuesday.
  • Wednesday’s shaping up to be nice and sunny with highs in the mid 70s.
  • Thursday: Rainy and breezy. A real spring soaker type of day.
  • Friday: A couple leftover showers; otherwise, mostly dry.
  • Memorial day weekend. Sat – Mon should be warm & dry. Highs in the 70s and 80s!

It’s nice to see some rain showing up as we desperately need it. Curious to see how much we end end up with… Regardless, it’s much needed. I’ll have a nice little update on where we stand in terms of our drought conditions later this week.

Have a great rest of your Monday! Take care of yourselves and stay safe!

Finally some more “active” weather

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS, Winter 2020/2021 OutlookLeave a comment

It’s been a dry spring. Really dry. Back in March we saw 58% of our typical rainfall for the month, then April rolled around even drier with 45% of that month’s average, and now here we are well into May and it’s still dry. Salem has received less than 27% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month. I imagine by now most of us are in summer mode, but we definitely could use the rain. Below is the estimated total precip through next Monday, and unfortunately it’s not a lot, but it’s the most we have seen in quite some time. Every little bit helps, but we are going to need a lot more rain if we want to avoid severe drought conditions this summer. The good thing is I see heavier rainfall predicted for areas east of the Cascades which should help ease conditions over there.

Forecast

1.) Scattered showers today with plenty of sunbreaks. A few thunderstorms are possible as well during the afternoon and early evening hours. Be prepared for some heavy downpours in places. Some showers could contain small hail.

2.) A few less showers on Thursday with lots of sunbreaks. Best chance for showers will be after 3PM.

3.) Plan on both Friday and Saturday being totally dry, but keep an eye to the sky during the late afternoon and evening hours both days as there will still be the slightest chance for a late day shower. More so close to the Coast Range and Cascade Range.

4.) The chance for rain goes up on Sunday morning as another little storm system rolls through bringing a shot at maybe some widespread rainfall.

Overall though, western Oregon is not forecasted to pick up much rain with any of these storm systems. Certainly not enough to eliminate the drought concerns. Sure your neighborhood could see a downpour, but across the whole region we are not expecting much rainfall. The drought monitor shows much of the state is experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OR

Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 had a really nice write up about all this dry weather and what it could mean for us. Check out his full blog post here:

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

Two things from his post I wish to emphasize. Number one is that a dry spring, like the one we’re experiencing now, does not guarantee a bad or destructive fire season. It certainly sets the stage for a bad year; however, a few well placed summer rainstorms can do wonders in preventing large wildfire outbreaks. As long as we get some rain from time to time during the summer months we should fair okay.

The second thing he mentioned is the role lightning plays into all of this. Lightning is a major starter of wildfires. If we stay warm and mostly dry this summer, but have very little in the way of thunderstorm activity, then we could still avoid a bad fire season – so long as humans don’t screw things up.

There you have it! I hope you all are enjoying the work week and making it through okay. Keep an eye to the sky the next few days as these showers could really dump a lot of rain in a short period of time….

Dry May forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

First off I want to acknowledge that yes, it will be wet the next few days (I know that haha lol), but it won’t last long, and before you know it we’ll be returning right back to the warm and dry weather which has dominated our region for the past several weeks. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, check out the early summer like temps out there as of 4PM.

1.) Looking ahead tomorrow starts off dry with a couple of showers moving in during the mid to late afternoon hours. High temps should be around 67°. A few more showers on Friday, but I have to say overall the amount of rain we are expecting over the next few days is not very much at all. A few days ago there was some hope we would get a nice widespread soaking this week/weekend, but that’s just not going to be the case.

2.) Saturday and Sunday will both be basically dry with only a very slight chance for an isolated shower.

3.) The vast majority of next week is looking completely dry with a lot of high temps in the mid to upper 70s. What seems clear is our drier than normal spring is going to continue through next week. A couple days of scattered showers isn’t going to make up for the numerous dry days we have seen and will continue to see in the coming week. We could really use a good dose of rain, but sadly, that’s just the one thing I don’t see coming anytime soon…

Take care, stay safe and healthy, and have a great evening!!