A snowstorm for the mid and southern Willamette Valley looks to be right on track for tonight and tomorrow morning. 

Timing & details:  Sometime around 10 or 11pm a rain/snow mix will begin.  It won’t take very long to switch over to all snow.  Snow will continue through the early morning hours before changing to a few light snow showers for the rest of the day and possibly lasting into the evening.  Corvallis down to Eugene should score some really big snow totals.  Quite likely in the 7 to 12 inch range.  The Salem area will likely be lower with 3 to 5 inches being a likely outcome for us.  The Portland metro area will likely receive the lowest snowfall totals with only a dusting to 3” likely up there. 

Keep in mind how small shifts in the track of the storm can make big differences regarding snow totals.  One of the game changers I mentioned yesterday is that if the storm and main precip band moves a little bit further from where it’s forecast to go than we could easily see more (or less) snow.  Right now I’m happy with the 3 to 5 inch forecast, but don’t be surprised to see more than that.

You can also keep tabs on the incoming storm with this link right here.  You can see a nice stream of clouds and moisture headed right into Oregon, and with cold air coming in we have the right ingredients for a nice snowstorm!

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&z=1&im=14&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20190225014718&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=4328&y=3416

Rest of the week

Tuesday:  Very cold, but dry.

Wednesday – Friday:  More snow opportunities as we stay in an unusually cold wintry pattern.

Ready for an incredible Photoshop job?  Well here it is!  Kind of silly I know; however, it accurately depicts my feelings right about now concerning our upcoming snowy & cold winter weather.

Basically we have a very good shot at a snowstorm Sunday night through much of the day Monday with potential for more snow over the course of this coming week.  This the most certain I’ve been about snow falling in the Salem area since I began this website last winter.  Let’s get to it!!  I’ll give the highlights first along with the extended forecast, and then if you’ve got time I have the all-important “game changers,” & and a few closing thoughts further down.

Highlights

Tonight/Sunday morning:  Most likely just rain.  There’s a slim chance some of you will briefly see accumulating snow very early Sunday morning before switching back to a cold rain as the day wears on.

Sunday:  Cold rain.  In some places a rain/snow mix at times.

Sunday night – Monday night:  Rain/snow mix changing to all snow.  Snowy much of the day Monday.  Now, I greatly dislike guessing snowfall amounts as there are so many factors that can mess these guesses up, but for now I’m going with at least 2 inches for everyone with a fair possibility of much more.  This includes all areas from Corvallis up through Portland.  See “Game Changers” below.

Tuesday – Thursday:  A very cold & damp period with cold rain at times, and a few additional shots at sticking snow to the valley floor.

Friday – next Sunday:  Very chilly weather continues, but for now it’s at least looking dry.

Game Changers

Here’s my possible and ever important game changers section that could throw a wrench into the forecast.

1. Very slim chance for this one, but the opportunity is there for a little snow tonight specifically in the higher hills around the valley (500 – 1000’). If I feel the need to, I’ll do a quick update tonight regarding this potential as I should know more by then, but for now just plan on a cold rain.
2. Currently for the Sunday night/Monday storm I’m thinking 2 – 5” of snow; however, this storm is carrying a lot of moisture with it which means we and/or other locations in the valley could end up with up with close to a foot of snow!!  Remember this is just possible game changer and is not what I’m expecting to happen at this time… 
3. I don’t see this happening, but heck, here in Salem we are custom to disappointment when it comes to snow, so I’ll mention it. There’s a small chance this storm goes too far north in which case we get a ton of cold rain.
4. An even slimmer chance this storm goes too far south leaving us very cold with only a few flurries.

Final Thoughts

This Sunday night/Monday storm is looking more and more likely as time goes on with widespread accumulating snow almost certain up and down the I-5 corridor from at least Eugene up through Portland.

Tuesday – Thursday of next week will feature more opportunities for snow as low pressures (aka storm systems) look to pass by to our south allowing moisture to ride up over the cold air in place resulting in more snow.  Hard to narrow down details yet, but keep in mind more snow beyond the Monday storm is a very real possibility.

As always, keep your eyes open for those updates and be safe!!

A nice rainy night is in progress as I write this, and I gotta say I absolutely love a rainy night every now and then.  It’s just so soothing to listen to…

Anyway, it’s looking like the next 7 days are going to stay very chilly, cold, and wet at times with tons of mountain snow.

All the details you need to know

Wednesday:  A showery day.  A few showers could contain hail.  A couple PM sunbreaks.

Thursday:  Frosty cold morning giving way to a cool, but mostly sunny day.

Friday:  Another cold start.  Majority of the day will stay dry with rain arriving late in the afternoon.

Saturday:  Very similar to Wednesday’s weather.  Cold showers, hail possible.  Don’t be surprised to see some wet snow mixing in as well.

Sunday:  A slightly colder version of Saturday with snow mixing with the showers, especially up in the hills.

Monday:  A chance for some morning flurries or sprinkles.  Partly cloudy afternoon.  Cold.

Tuesday:  Watching for a chance of rain (possibly snow or a rain/snow mix).  Big changes possible with Tuesday’s forecast which means…. You guessed it!  Stay tuned for more updates!!! 😉

As this picture clearly shows I’m a deep thinker lol…  Today I’m thinking about the forecast for this weekend and next week as we will continue with both colder than normal weather, and more flirtations with possible low elevation snow. 

The next 7 days.  Yes, more snowflakes in the forecast, but sadly it will likely be more of the same with some slush or a dusting at best.  Better chance for snow the higher up in elevation you live.

Details

Rest of today:  Breezy with gusty south winds turning us mild (briefly).  Rain moves in tonight with a cold front and we cool right back down.

Friday:  Showers during the day with some steadier rain in the evening.  A few hail/ice pellets showers possible along with some fairly heavy rain showers, especially during the afternoon hours.  Snow levels around 1500’.

Saturday:  Snow level will start quite low (around 1000’) before rising to 2000’ later in the day with a few showers.

Saturday night – Sunday morning:  Another cold air mass surges in during the overnight hours bringing snow levels close to 500’.  I’m currently not anticipating anything real exciting, but the possibility exists that a few snow showers could fall down to the higher hills around town.

Sunday:  After a few rain (or snow showers), skies should clear up leading to a partly cloudy afternoon. 

Monday:  Dry & chilly.

Tuesday & Wednesday:  More chilly weather with rain showers and very low snow levels.

No great chance for snow on the valley floor yet, but if you live 500 – 1000’ you have a decent shot at seeing a light coating to an inch or two this weekend with possibly a little more next week.  Basically our cold and wet pattern is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Happy Valentine’s Day!!