Category: Salem Area Forecast

Stormy day

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

By every definition of the word today is going to be a very stormy day.

By the way, you may have heard by now about our “bomb” cyclone/storm offshore. I can tell you that yes, this is one of the strongest storms on record this close to our coastline; however, it’s 100s of miles away and the winds from it will be nothing more than what we see with a typical wintertime storm. With that said, we still have a lot of very stormy weather on tap for today.

Highlights

1.) Winds will gust 30 to 40mph today and tonight which is still enough to cause a few scattered power outages.

2.) Showers have the potential to be very heavy with this storm. I expect some neighborhoods will see ponding on roads and maybe some spots of brief localized flooding especially where drains are clogged. Some low laying areas could be at risk if a heavy shower stalls overhead. This type of weather pattern is conducive to showers stalling over the same locations leading to heavy rainfall totals in localized spots.

3.) The coast will see some massive waves today. Waves up to 40 some feet are possible through tonight.

4.) The coast is also at risk of seeing some weak funnel clouds and or tornados. Not trying to frighten anyone, and if any do form they will likely be the typical weak NW variety. Regardless, even a weak tornado can still cause damage.

5.) Anyone could hear thunder as the atmosphere is very unstable today.

Monday will be similar as this storm system takes its time moving across the region.

Stay safe and enjoy the stormy fall weather.

Stormy week ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

I have a fun new chart to show you all. This chart below is really good at conveying the big picture up to two weeks out with each horizontal line showing a single possible outcome. Time on this chart goes from left to right and it shows 24 hour rainfall totals (measured in inches) ending every 12 hours which means there is some overlap with these totals.

What I look for on charts like this one are patterns and trends – not details. So in this case the concentrated number of predictions showing heavier rainfall around the 22nd and again near the 28th of October provide me with a high level of confidence some sort of big rainstorm is heading our way both those days. Another use of these maps is just looking at the probability for rainfall on any given day. For example, from looking at all of these possible outcomes, it seems extremely clear to me that today will be the last completely dry day until at least the 30th with many of the predictions showing rainfall every single day for the next 11 days.

We are heading into a very stormy and wet weather pattern. Right in line with what we would expect during a La Nina. Between now and the end of the month we could easily see over 5 inches of rain! Check out this total rainfall map ending close to midnight on Oct 31st.

Again, the message seems very clear to me which is very wet times are heading our way. Here’s a satellite image of tomorrow’s storm heading our way.

Highlights

Two other things to really watch for with these storms are: number one, the high surf and big waves at the coast. These storms are capable of producing some really big waves. Great for storm watching, but be careful if you head out there.

The other concern I have is for high winds and the increased potential for power outages in the coming days as strong winds develop with some of these storm systems. In fact, we could see fairly gusty winds Wednesday with this first storm system. Winds will likely gust 30 to maybe 40mph tomorrow morning. Nothing too crazy is being predicted for the moment, but this pattern will bring the windiest weather we have seen since January.

We also have a chance for a few thunderstorms Wednesday.

Thursday will start out mostly or even completely dry and could stay dry until the late afternoon before the next storm rolls in.

Expect both the weekend and much of next week to be stormy and quite wet.

Stay safe!

September 2021 and a quick forecast

On By bryanweatherIn 2021, Extra!!, Monthly reports, Salem Area Forecast, Weather Year 2020/2021Leave a comment

I figured it was time to bring back the monthly reports. These are definitely a fun way of documenting the month just in general as well as highlighting any major weather events from the month. If you are looking for the forecast then skip down to the bottom. 😉

September 2021 Summary

Much of September 2021 was actually very warm and summer like which is common for September; however, a few good soakings during the second half of the month gave Salem a rainfall total of 2.89″ which is a whopping 198% of our monthly average! This chart below shows the percentage of total precip for each month here in Salem going back to last October.

This image above shows the upper level pattern which brought Salem steady rain on the 27th.

At 1.9° above normal, September ended up being Salem’s 6th warmer than average month in a row in what has been a fairly warm year. This chart shows the number of degrees above or below normal each month has been since last October.

Looking ahead

October is off to a fairly cool and dry start. As of today (Saturday), Salem is sitting at 3.7°F below normal for the month, but with only .19″ of rain. From looking at the long range charts, it seems obvious the cooler weather is here to stay.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

1.) Sunday’s going to be a typical shower and sunbreak type of day with small hail and brief downpours possible. Very cool air with this storm will bring a few inches of snow to the Cascades Sun night and Monday morning.

2.) Plan on Monday being mostly dry with just a very slight chance of a PM shower. The cool airmass behind this system will set us up for our coldest lows of the year Tuesday morning with frost in some of the outlying areas around the valley.

3.) A weak storm system moves though Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing a few showers here and there, but nothing big.

4.) Besides the nice weather we are seeing today, next Tue, Thu, Fri, and Sat all look dry for outdoor projects and adventures. No sign of any late season warmth to go with that dry weather unfortunately as we seem to be locked into a cooler pattern for the foreseeable future.

There you have it. Have a fantastic weekend!

Busy days

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

Did you hear about the weak tornado that touched down up in Battle Ground Washington? Not much damage as it was very weak, but still “exciting” as weather goes around here. We just wrapped up our second big soaking of the month with Salem picking up well over an inch of rain over the past 3 days. So after a long dry summer we are now having a wetter than normal month which is great news! Check out the rain totals since Sunday.

Nice to see rain across the region helping improve the drought situation. 🙂

EXTENDED FORECAST

Expect a couple of showers on Thursday.

Friday – Monday: Mostly sunny and dry. Some patchy fog possible; otherwise, a very nice weekend with highs in the 70s! 🙂

Rain looks to return next Tuesday as well fall back into a cool and wet pattern again.

Take care!!

Stormy couple of days

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Posting from my phone today. Still the same extremely handsome and very accurate forecaster, 😉🙃 but without all the fun charts or maps.

Basically the next 2 days will feature a lot of clouds, some heavy showers, even some gusty winds at times, and on Tuesday, in particular, a few sunbreaks mixed in as well. Could be some lightning, thunder, and small hail at times during the afternoon hours both days.

Wed: Should be dry, but cool with areas of morning fog – very fall like if you ask me with lows in the mid 40s and highs in the upper 60s.

Thu: Dry until the late afternoon when we have a shot at seeing a few quick showers.

That’s all for now. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!!

Extended forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

After a very thorough soaking over this past weekend we are back to dry weather. Mild, sunny & dry weather is common this time of year as it’s not really the full blown “wet season” just yet; however, gone are the endless days of dry weather. I have forecast details below, but first a quick look at our rainfall totals from the weekend storm. These totals are rounded so they don’t tell the whole story. Salem’s official total from the storm was actually 1.49″. It was both a good start to our rainy season, and it made a big dent in the wildfire situation here in OR.

EXTENDED FORECAST

1.) Slight chance of a shower Wednesday. A very weak system will be sliding by to our north with a few more showers up around Portland. By 5PM the sky should clear up with Wed ending on a dry note.

2.) Thu – Sun look dry. This will be a great stretch of time to either play or get things done outside. Keep in mind it’s the second half of September which means warm temps during the day cool off quickly at night with lows around 52 – 54°. This will likely be the last really mild and dry weekend of the year, so take advantage if you can!!

3.) Mon looks to be wet as showers return to the area.

4.) Tue could end up being a very stormy day, but will have more updates as we get closer. For now at least plan on it being wet.

Take care out there and be kind to each other!

Happy Thursday!

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS4 Comments

Good morning! It’s been a truly historic summer in regards to heat and record high temps. I’ll have a final look back at our incredibly hot summer another time. For now I’m back in the forecasting saddle and it feels great to be back! Forecasting is a huge passion of mine; however, for the past 6 weeks I’ve been absolutely swamped with my new teaching job.  In fact it’s been a long time since you’ve heard from me as summer is already a slow time of year regarding the weather not to mention the many hikes and little trips I took over summer in addition to all the work I’ve had.

So yes, I’m back and it’s good to be returning to the swing of things. Looking ahead it’s very clear to me that summer is over. Sure, we will still have plenty of 70 degree days and maybe even a few more 80 degree days, but have you noticed the chillier nighttime lows? The heat of the day doesn’t last real long this time of year. Speaking of cool nighttime lows, the coolest temps we have seen since early June are occurring this morning with lots of low to mid 40s. Salem was at 45° as of AM. In fact check out all of the chilly temps this morning across the region!

Here’s a look at the next 7 days with highlights and details below.

Highlights

I’m confident rain should move in after “dinner time” Friday night meaning your Friday plans should be good to go through at least 7 or 8PM – maybe even later.


This map shows Salem picking up .8″ of rain in only 6 hours early Saturday morning with more as we go through the remainder of the day.

Indeed it’s going to be quite the soaker Friday night & Saturday morning with close to an inch of rain falling! Saturday afternoon will feature a more typical shower/sunbreak pattern – maybe a rumble of thunder.

Showers increase on Sunday. Again, slight chance for a rumble of thunder or even a funnel cloud.

The rain shuts off abruptly Sunday night making for a dry Monday (maybe some morning fog), and then Tue will be sunny and mild.

Forecasting confidence goes down on Wed as it looks like we will be on the edge of a weak system. For now plan on a mostly cloudy day with a light shower or two – nothing big.

Your dry days for getting things done outside are today, Friday, and again next Mon & Tue.

That’s all I have for now. Feels great making a forecast like this again! We have another La Nina winter in store which means it’s likely going to be a busy year with plenty of storms and exciting weather events, and I plan on being the guy you can count on to keep you informed and in the know 😉 🙂

Take care and I hope you all are staying healthy and safe!