Happy Thursday everyone! From what I’m seeing it appears as though the train is still on the tracks for now. Hahaha!!! Check out regional temps as of 11AM:

As you can see there’s a lot of very cold air east of the Cascades which is blasting through the gorge straight into the northern Willamette Valley. Next take a look at the satellite view of the storm rolling in. It’s a beast of a storm!!

The greater Portland metro area: All of Clackamas, Washington, and Multnomah counties, as well as parts of Yamhill County are looking at what will probably be a major top tier snowstorm. Locations further south like Wilsonville and Newberg may only pick up 2 to 6 inches of snow, while cities both close to Portland and cities north and east of Portland could easily see – and I’m not kidding – well over a foot of snow between now and Saturday afternoon! Plan on Portland being an absolute mess through Sunday, perhaps even into Monday with Portland metro roads freezing up and turning snowy before the PM commute this afternoon.

THE SALEM AREA

TIMING: Salem falls below freezing tonight. The cold air is currently spreading down into our region at a more “aggressive” rate than what some models were initially showing. Due to this fact, I’m feeling confident that Salem drops below freezing between 7 and 10PM tonight. This is a little bit sooner than what I said in my last update.

What to expect: For today we will only see cold rain. I’m still thinking we end up with a brutal mix of freezing rain, some sleet, and a little bit of snow at times beginning late tonight and lasting on and off through Saturday morning. My concern is that freezing rain will be our dominate precip type for the duration of this event. This could end up being an extremely hazardous and dangerous ice storm for the immediate Salem area. I’m thinking lots of trees, tree branches, and limbs coming down.

Because we are so close to the deeper cold air, it is very likely that we switch back and forth between freezing rain, sleet, and snow over the next two days. Being right on the edge of the cold air will cause us to do a lot of switching between precip types. I want to illustrate why this forecast is so tricky. This first pic shows estimated total snowfall in inches ending Monday morning.

If this model is correct, Portland will end up with 12 to 18 inches of snow while Salem sees maybe an inch or two at most (I’m accounting for the cold air being slightly further south than what this model predicted.) In this scenario Salem would see a better part of an inch of freezing rain!! This could easily be one of the more serious ice storms we have seen in at least a decade. HOWEVER…… 🙂 Check out this next map from the other major weather model. It shows what could happen if the cold air is even more aggressive in moving in, with Salem receiving over 10 inches of snow and only a little bit of freezing rain.

If you take a blend of these two models, which is sorta what I’m doing, you end up with a lot of freezing rain and a little bit of snow. As much as I would like a ton of snow, I’m leaning more towards the freezing rain outcome being correct with just some snow here in Salem. I do recognize, however, that if things trend a little bit colder we could still see a big snowstorm here as well!

Either way Salem should stay close to or below freezing tonight through Saturday morning/early afternoon. This time of year it’s possible roads could be okay to drive on during the peak daytime hours on Friday if precip lets up and if we get a break in the clouds, but don’t bank on that. Drive as if they are still icy, stay safe, and plan on roads being a mess beginning late tonight through Saturday morning. At some point Saturday afternoon we should warm up above freezing and begin the melting process here in Salem. Portland will take longer and may not thaw out until Sunday afternoon.

I will continue to check real time observations to see if we are running warmer or colder than expected, and there are always little surprises that happen which simply can’t be forecasted and it will be interesting to se what actually transpires. Anyway, no promises on when the next update will be, but keep an eye out and plan for an icy few days with more snow the further north you go.

I’m using the words “wintry” because currently it’s looking likely that we end up with regular rain, freezing rain, and maybe sleet, but not necessarily so much in the way of snow here in Salem. So much to cover and so little time lol, so let’s dive right in!

1.) A chilly, but very light east wind is already beginning near the Columbia River Gorge, and by Thursday afternoon it should be just blasting through the gorge transporting very cold air into our region. Right now the cold air is still making it’s way south and west towards us. Here are regional temps as of 9PM:

As you can see we have a long ways to cool before we will be cold enough for freezing rain or snow. This event will largely be gorge driven as that is where the coldest air will be coming from. The Portland metro area is always the more favored spot for seeing lots of snow in this setup, and to a lesser extent the west side of the Willamette Valley is also favored some as cold air blowing west through the gorge sort of pools up against the Coast Range.

2.) Light rain at times arrives Thursday morning. It will be a cold rain, but I expect Salem to stay above freezing during the daytime hours. Portland will likely freeze over around sunset give or take a few hours, so if your plans take you up there keep this in mind. Salem may not freeze up until some time between 9PM and 3AM early Friday morning.

3.) The bad news is I’m not sure we will get very much snow. Salem will likely see mostly rain, freezing rain and maybe some snow mixing in occasionally. Snow chances increase the further west and north you live. In case you’re not sure how or what causes freezing rain check this graphic out below.

Basically the cold air Thursday night through Saturday won’t be deep enough for snow here in Salem as of right now.

5.) Storm number two comes in Friday afternoon through Saturday. This is the storm that should bring us the majority of our freezing rain and if things work out just right maybe some snow too.

FOR now, the most likely scenario I’m going with for now is we get plain old rain Thursday, and freezing rain Friday & Saturday with maybe half an inch up to 4 inches of snow and sleet mixed in. Could be a day were we switch back and forth between snow and freezing rain – what a mess!

Far less likely scenario is we see a lot of snow Friday & Saturday like 6+ inches. If the cold air overachieves and is deeper than expect then this scenario could happen which is why I’m mentioning it. Currently this is not expected to be the case.

Even less likely, but still technically possible is we end up with the coldest rain you’ve ever seen. This seems extremely unlikely based off of the trends I’ve seen, but if for some reason the cold air stalls just to our north we could be looking at a ton of 33 degree rain. Woo hoo!

Locations north of roughly Wilsonville will see significant snowfall of 5 to 12+ inches by Sunday morning. Locations between Wilsonville to roughly Salem will be in the messy and difficult to forecast rain, freezing rain and snow mix zone. Salem down to Albany should receive at least some accumulation of freezing rain Friday and Saturday, and again, very slight chance, but the chance exist that we see snowfall here if things work out just right (SLIM CHANCE THOUGH). With freezing rain likely the possibility exists for power outages, damage to plants, and lots of tree limbs down.

Phew!! I’m exhausted! Okay, time for a relaxing evening and I’ll give you all a nice update tomorrow morning or early afternoon!!

Take care!!!

A super quick update with no fancy pictures, charts, or maps. Just the basics. I will have a full update Tuesday afternoon/evening for you.

Highlights

1.) Tue & Wed will be chilly, especially in the mornings, but should stay mainly dry. Good days to go to work, travel around, and run errands.

2.) Thursday should be okay for travel too. I expect rain during the day with temps dropping as the day goes on.

3.) Thursday night into Friday morning we transition to either freezing rain, snow, or a wintry mix of both.

4.) There is a very good chance for wintry weather and significant impacts to travel in the Mid Willamette Valley from the moment we switch to frozen precip Thursday night/Friday morning all the way through Sunday, and perhaps even into early next week. It’s looking more and more likely that this will be a multiday event with several rounds of snow and or ice. Make sure you have all your errands done by Thursday afternoon just to be safe, and for now plan on roads turning bad possibly as early as Thursday night and lasting until Sunday, again maybe even longer.

I should have more details for you tomorrow. It’s going to be an exciting week around here!

Happy Monday!

It’s February 2nd (Groundhog Day lol). I hope you’re doing well! I’ve got a fresh 7 day forecast for you and some quick thoughts on what’s coming up.

Highlights

1.) For the remainder of today we will see additional sunbreaks & showers with downpours, small hail, and the slight chance for a rumble of thunder.

2.) Wednesday morning could be interesting for a few of you as we have steady precipitation, a cooling airmass, and light winds. All three of those factors will work together to bring snow levels down quite low. Take a look at these two snowfall maps.

Hmmmmm and ugh lol… The last time these maps showed snow I ignored them lol and got burned. That’s not to say that these maps are not always right, but I’ll keep an eye on this still as it will be a close call for some of you. Basically these maps are both indicating snow falling down to very low levels briefly overnight tonight and into early Wednesday morning. Not a lot of snow at all, and not a very good chance, but after the “surprise” snow last Tuesday we should know that when things things work out just right snow is possible even if the chance is “not very good.”

I’m expecting just rain at this point; however, if it does snow, it will be brief and it should be no more than an inch or two for those of us in the valley. This setup favors locations south and east of Salem this go around. Eugene, Sweet Home, Lebanon are all have an increased chance of receiving snow.

3.) Either way, by mid morning we should have some nice sunbreaks and it will all be over with the exception of a few leftover rain showers during the afternoon hours.

4.) The rest of the week is pretty much what you see on the graphic. Nothing exciting for now, but extremely low confidence which is why I still have a lot of days colored in yellow. Every new forecast that has come out these past few days has spit something different out for this timeframe, and I mean everything from snow to rain to lots of sunshine lol which is making it extremely difficult to even guess what will happen this weekend and beyond. I’m hoping to have a better idea at some point tomorrow. For now, enjoy the sunbreaks and downpours.