Rain, Thunderstorms, and, smoke

The big picture has transpired more or less according to plan with one main issue. The sharp cutoff in precip I mentioned in previous forecasts ended up occurring a little further west than anticipated leaving the entire Willamette Valley (not just the east side) basically dry these past two days with only a few sprinkles here and there. The coast and a number of locations in the Coast Range still received decent rainfall with both Tillamook and Astoria picking up close to half an inch of rain so far this week.

Today we stay dry until this evening when thunderstorms and some fairly heavy rain showers finally move in across all parts of the Willamette Valley. My best guess is showers and storms arrive between 7 and 9pm. It could be quite the lightning show for some of you tonight. Thankfully these storms will bring plenty of heavy rain with them, so lightning shouldn’t pose too much of a threat in term of starting new fires. Strong gusty winds are also possible with these storms.

Heavy rain showers continue on Friday. The showers on Friday will be slow to move, so if you get caught under one you can expect a good soaking. Slight chance of thunder and lightning tomorrow as well.

Here are projected rainfall totals now through Saturday evening, and while it’s possible some of us won’t get quite this much rainfall, the big pictures is everyone’s getting rain, and a bit of it. Nice to see a decent soaking in the forecast! Feel free to click image for a larger view.

We will see a dramatic improvement in air quality tonight and Friday with these heavy rain showers and storms. In fact we have a decent chance at seeing regular blue skies over Salem, in between showers of course, tomorrow and even more so on Saturday assuming we can clear out of the clouds enough. Our smoky saga is finally almost over…

Busy week ahead

Well, we have another busy week in store as we slowly clear out of this smoky mess, plus we have a chance for thunderstorms this Thu & Fri. First things first, with no significant winds in the forecast in the near future it’s looking like the smoke will be with us to some extent now until Thursday. 😦 It should improve a little Mon night and Tue, especially in the locations that get some good rain showers, but a change in the winds aloft (up high) will likely bring more smoke back into our region on Wed…

My thinking hasn’t changed in terms of who gets rain Mon – Wed and who doesn’t. Showers will generally be confined to locations along & west of I-5. Many places in the Santiam Canyon and eastern Willamette Valley will not see much in the way of rain until Thu. Below is the latest total precip forecast map which goes through Wednesday.

The coast & Coast Range get around an inch of rain and Salem receives nearly half an inch while locations like Detroit, Mill City, Lebanon, and Sweet Home see little more than a few sprinkles. This next map shows estimated precipitation totals through Saturday night. The second half of the week is definitely looking much wetter for those eastern locations.

Extended Forecast

The key thing to remember is that for Mon – Wed the potential for rain increases quite a bit as one heads further west, and it won’t be until Thursday when rain showers finally move through the entire region giving everyone a decent soaking.

The other highlight for this week is the chance for thunderstorms both Thu & Fri. Fortunately there should be plenty of rain (maybe some hail as well) with these storms limiting any new fire threats from lightning.

Hang in there and stay healthy…

Sept 12th update

What was suppose to be an enjoyable week of late warm summer weather with highs in the 90s instead turned into a smokey and fiery hell leaving communities devastated along with a number of popular recreational sites, terrible air quality, and highs nearly twenty degrees cooler than what was originally forecasted due to thick smoke.

If you are looking for relief from the smoke it is still coming, very very slowly…… Our clearing out process will pick up a little on Sunday, at least up high. Down here in the valley we are essentially stuck in an inversion pattern still keeping the smokey air trapped near the surface until probably Tue when showers and rain finally move in. Of course with all the smoke and ash particles floating around in the sky this has the potential to be some of the grossest rain that has ever fallen here in western Oregon, so don’t go singing in the rain when it does arrive, at least not at first.

The rain will take its sweet time moving inland next week. The maps below show forecasted precipitation totals through Tuesday night and give a decent idea of what parts of the state will see rain first. In general places northwest of Portland, Salem, and down to Florence will receive decent rainfall Mon night and Tue while locations like Sweet home, Springfield, and much of the Santiam Canyon will sadly stay mostly dry with just a few sprinkles and isolated light showers until Thu. Of course if this storm comes onshore even a little bit further than expected then we would be looking at showers over those areas on Tuesday as well. Something we can be praying for.

Those maps depict pretty clearly a sharp drop off in precip/rainfall as one moves southeast. Fortunately by Thu afternoon and Fri all locations west of the Cascades will be seeing rain as showers become widespread across the region. Showers continue on Saturday and possibly even through next Sunday.

What’s going on?

Another update for you all. As forecasted, easterly and northerly winds have died off which is good news in terms of slowing the spread of most of the fires burning in western Oregon; however, we have a few things going on which is making our “clearing out” process extremely slow. I’ll break it down for you.

1.) We are currently in a pattern very similar to the wintertime inversions we get when fog is trapped in the valley day after day. Similar, only this time it is extremely thick smoke and ash trapped at the surface.

2.) Light westerly/southwesterly winds will eventually begin “blowing,” if that’s what we want to call it, later this evening. Problem is these cooler breezes are expected to only be about 5 to 10mph tops meaning it will take a loooong time for us to clear out. For comparison the winds that drove the smoke into the valley the past three days were gusting around 20 to 30mph here in Salem, so this wind shift is helpful, but extremely weak.

3.) Yikes! Take a look at these satellite pics! Virtually all of the brown/grey you see on here is smoke, so who cares if we have an onshore breeze if there is smoke for hundreds of miles offshore. This is the result of nearly 3 days of easterly winds. I’ve never seen so much smoke so far offshore here. Just absolutely awful….

To help give some perspective on the affect this smoke is having on our weather, take a look at the area temps as of 2pm. Notice Salem sitting at 66 on a day when it should have been in the upper 90s. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the Puget Sound 15 to 20 degrees warmer than us. Very unusual….

Insane weather for sure and praying that the worse is behind us. Of course, we won’t really clear out all the way until maybe Tue or Wed of next week after we finally get some decent rainfall. More on next week’s forecast later. For now take care and stay indoors as much as possible.

Fire weather update

I don’t have the latest numbers or maps on where the wildfires are burning or what locations are in need of evacuating. I’m learning that stuff as quickly as you all are and it is changing fast. What I can tell you is the winds should die down Thursday and even reverse direction a bit which will not only help clear some of this smoke and ash out (although it will take quite some time), but it will also help reduce and slow the spread of the fires.

The best news I can give you, besides the change in the winds, is that rain is finally expected to arrive Monday evening. In fact next Mon – Wed looks wet which should help put an end to any more significant fire threats. Of course Mon feels so far away right now, but it is better than not having any rain in sight. This map gives you an idea of how much rainfall we could be looking at next week. Lots of blue coloring over western Oregon indicating a solid half inch of rain or more. Good news for fighting the fires, and it sure as heck can’t come soon enough…

This satellite loop shows how the winds are driving thick smoke right into the valley.

I hope you all are staying safe and staying alert. There are what feels like an infinite number of sources to keep you up to date, so make sure you have one that is specifically for your local area to help minimize confusion.

Bad news

It’s hot out there, especially for September, and now we are about to add to the mix some strong winds which is really bad news for the wildfires currently burning here in Oregon. Winds pick up later this afternoon and will continue through Wednesday evening before finally dying down.

Here in Salem you can expect gusts around 25 to 35mph, maybe an occasional gust closer to 40. If you’re headed into the Cascades, the Coast Range, the gorge, or to the Portland area – so pretty much everywhere else in Oregon lol, then you could be looking at gusts over 50mph!

In case you missed the memo, this will be a warm wind and not the “cool you off” type of breeze we so often get. The next 7 days will be hot and well above average with a shot at going above 90 almost every single day this week and still no sign of rain. Enjoy the warm weather and pray for no new fires.

Hot September weather

I’ve taken a look at all the fancy charts and maps I enjoy looking at and I see a solid stretch of late summer heat headed our way. Aside from today, highs the rest of the week will be upper 80s to low 90s. Labor Day Weekend looks hot with highs in the low to mid 90s, and next week could be even hotter with highs in the 90s, and maybe even a couple of 100 degree days mixed in!!

So yeah, there you have it. Still no sign whatsoever of any significant rainfall or stormy weather. Pretty much nothing but sunshine and warmth for the next couple weeks. Stay cool, and enjoy this nice summer weather while it lasts!!!