Mild & Dry

Did you notice how mild it was yesterday?  Salem tied the record high for January 10th at 60°F.  Check out some of the other very mild high temps across the area.

highs 1.10

The relatively warm weather won’t continue with temperatures gradually cooling over the next 5 days.  By Tuesday daytime highs should be down in the mid-40s and lows into the 20s.  Regardless of how mild or cold it is, the one thing it will be is totally dry through at least Tuesday. 

This type of pattern also gives strong gusty winds through the Gorge.  Winds will easily reach 35 – 40mph out near Troutdale with occasional gusts above 50.


The next 7 days

jan 11

There’s a small chance for a couple of wimpy showers Wednesday.  Thursday into next weekend are looking fairly wet.

Up in the mountains it will be easy going for several days with no snow until Thursday.

 

*Minor correction:  Salem’s peak wind gust from the storm last week ended up being 54mph, not 51mph as I stated.  Small difference, but as always I want to make sure I’m delivering accurate information for my wonderful viewers.

Storm recap and the week ahead

Brief recap of Saturday night’s storm

Was a quick storm with the strongest winds arriving right on target at around 8:30pm and dying off sometime around 11:30pm.  The Salem airport recorded wind gust of 54mph, our strongest gust this winter.  Many locations in the mid valley saw 48 to 54mph gusts.

Of course I love it when my forecasts turn out well, and if you have been following me over the last year you should have no trouble thinking back to a time or two (or more) when I missed a forecast.  Today I’m happy to say this weekend was not one of those times 😉 🙂


Okay, enough bragging, and onto the forecast for this coming week.  Currently we have very cold showers streaming onshore which will continue much of the night.  The snow level is quite low at roughly 1500 feet (for sticking snow), and will lower slightly tonight down to 1000’ or so.  Check out how Santiam pass looked late this afternoon.

 

Very snowy up there and that will continue to be the case through Monday night.  All of this is good news for our snowpack.  I see Hoodoo is now reporting over 50” of snow for their base!

Back down here in the valley, I suspect a few roads could be icy early Monday morning IF we get some extra clearing tonight, so pay close attention to conditions before you stepping out to go tomorrow. 

This coming week looks wet.  No big washouts, just drippy regular Oregon rain.

Best chance for dry weather is Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

Next weekend is looking wet..

Stormy weather

Highlights

Very active weather on tap for the entire Willamette Valley these next several days.

First things first, we have a pretty strong wind event headed our way Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.  Wind gusts should be in the 35 to 50mph range with chances that they go a little higher or lower depending on the exact track of the storm. Regardless it will be a rainy and windy night.  You can see the storm on the visible satellite right here.  Very impressive looking!!

Saturday night’s storm curling up and heading our way.

Sunday will be chilly & breezy with cold showers streaming onshore.  Could even see a hail shower or two.

Sunday night & Monday will be even chillier with a couple showers left over.  Snow levels will only be around 1000’ (possibly lower).  This means the Coast Range and Cascade foothills could see some snow (1 – 3”).  The snow potential does not affect the Salem area at this time…   

Here’s just one of the many snow maps I look at to help make my forecasts. This is total snowfall in inches ending Tuesday night.

A lot of purple and darker pinks in the Cascades indicating 6 to 12 inches of new snow up there with even more on the highest peaks.
Take away message:
  1. Cascade passes will be snowy Saturday night through Tuesday morning.
  2. Coast Range will be seeing snow at times Sunday – Tuesday AM.
  3. Foothills down to 1000′ will see an inch or two Sunday night/Monday morning.

Tuesday could be a bit interesting with a warm front pushing up from our southwest bringing plain old rain, but with cool air in place I could see the foothills and Coast Range communities start out with a brief snow or ice mix before changing to rain.  Something else to keep an eye on.

Wednesday & Thursday:  Lots of clouds with a few showers.

Friday:  Foggy & mostly cloudy.

Feel free to track the storm on satellite with link: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&z=1&im=14&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=50&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20190104193219&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=4458.13330078125&y=4418.933349609375

More updates to follow, so stay tuned!!!!

December 26th

The Valley

A quick day after Christmas forecast for you all.  Nothing too exciting heading our way.  Just cool weather with rain at times and lots of clouds.  Basically I don’t see a whole lot of sunshine in the near future for us.

Dec 6


 The Cascades

The recent mountain snow, which I (so humbly) predicted has brought Hoodoo’s base up to about 40” which is awesome news!!  I see at least another 9 – 12 inches of new snow coming between now and Sunday night which will add to our now growing and somewhat respectable snowpack.

Snow levels look to be around 2000 – 2500’ today and tomorrow.   4500’ dropping down to 2000’ on Sunday.   

Snowy pass conditions today, Thursday, and again on Sunday.  Expect spots of ice and snow all the other days as the lack of sun will make it tough for the roads to really clear up.

 That’s all I got, so be safe and enjoy the rest of your week! 

Christmas Break Snow

Some excellent news for the Cascades and ski resorts.  First off, the snow from Thursday’s storm brought the base at Hoodoo up to about 28” which was enough to open the majority of their terrain and with additional snow headed their way I suspect they should have all their runs open any day now.  Mount Bachelor, and the ski resorts on Mount Hood also have most of their runs open.  It’s not a lot of snow up there, but enough to have some fun.

Now for the rest of the good news: it looks like some 16 – 22” of new snow is on the way between now and the 26th with more for the higher locations and even more possibly in the days leading up to New Year’s Eve.  All just in time for Christmas break!!!   If you are a skier, snowboarder, snowmobiler, or just a snow lover than the Cascades will be the place to go these next couple of weeks.


Traveling across the Cascades I don’t see any real good day.  Notice how Santiam Pass looks this afternoon despite being dry all day so far.  With more snow arriving tonight I expect either snowy roads or at least spots of ice each day, so make sure you have good traction (chains, studs ect.), take it slow, be safe, and get out there and enjoy the snow!

Santiam Pass 12.22

Low snowpack

OR snowpack 12.11

This map depicts the percentage of water stored within the snowpack relative to normal.  You can see most of the state is well below normal.  A combination of mediocre storms and lots of dry days (think back to just last week) and we end up with this low, below average snowpack.

Notice how the southern regions are reporting close to and even above normal conditions.  Above average precip in southern Oregon is common during El Nino winters (like the winter we are in now), and I expect that trend to continue.

To give you an idea of how low the snowpack is, the current base at Hoodoo ski area is 18.5″ of snow.  Not very good.


Forecast

In the meantime I see 5 to 12 inches of snow coming for the mountains tonight and tomorrow.  More the higher up you go in elevation, but even a few inches as low as 2500′ are possible.

Beyond tomorrow I don’t see very much snowfall in the forecast unfortunately.  Hopefully later in the month we can get a series of colder and wetter storms to really build the snow up a bit more.

Cold rain ahead

You may be hearing rumors of possible freezing rain or ice, and I’m sure you were just hoping to find out what my thoughts were on the situation.  Luckily, I’ve got a brand new forecast just for you to help settle all those rumors.

Dec 2


Details

It’s cold out there right now and it’s been cold all week long.  No doubt about that.  Now we have clouds moving in.  The question is: will it get icy this weekend?  For the Salem area and most of the valley the answer is no.  Not in any way that should affect your travel plans.  It should be just “warm” enough here to keep us from getting any sort of freezing rain.  Instead we will be left with some very cold rain showers.  Lucky us!!! 😉

If you plan to travel through the Gorge it will be another story.  I expect some spots of ice and even a little bit of snow in the Gorge east of Multnomah Falls and more so out towards The Dalles.


The Cascades

Up in the mountains it looks like some light snow is on tap Saturday with steadier snow Sunday night & Monday.  Tuesday should be dry until evening when more snow will move in.

Snow totals by Thursday of next week should be around 10 – 16 inches for most of the ski resorts and mountain passes.