As this picture clearly shows I’m a deep thinker lol…  Today I’m thinking about the forecast for this weekend and next week as we will continue with both colder than normal weather, and more flirtations with possible low elevation snow. 

The next 7 days.  Yes, more snowflakes in the forecast, but sadly it will likely be more of the same with some slush or a dusting at best.  Better chance for snow the higher up in elevation you live.

Details

Rest of today:  Breezy with gusty south winds turning us mild (briefly).  Rain moves in tonight with a cold front and we cool right back down.

Friday:  Showers during the day with some steadier rain in the evening.  A few hail/ice pellets showers possible along with some fairly heavy rain showers, especially during the afternoon hours.  Snow levels around 1500’.

Saturday:  Snow level will start quite low (around 1000’) before rising to 2000’ later in the day with a few showers.

Saturday night – Sunday morning:  Another cold air mass surges in during the overnight hours bringing snow levels close to 500’.  I’m currently not anticipating anything real exciting, but the possibility exists that a few snow showers could fall down to the higher hills around town.

Sunday:  After a few rain (or snow showers), skies should clear up leading to a partly cloudy afternoon. 

Monday:  Dry & chilly.

Tuesday & Wednesday:  More chilly weather with rain showers and very low snow levels.

No great chance for snow on the valley floor yet, but if you live 500 – 1000’ you have a decent shot at seeing a light coating to an inch or two this weekend with possibly a little more next week.  Basically our cold and wet pattern is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Happy Valentine’s Day!!

Quick highlights

Monday:  Cold rain.  No issues.

Monday night – Thursday morning:  During this period of time we will be having near constant precipitation as a couple of storms essentially stall directly over the region.  Total precip between now and Thursday will be in the 3 to 4 inch range!!!  That will cause some localized on our smaller creeks and streams and some low laying areas.  No concern regarding the bigger rivers.  Notice I still have lots of snowflakes on the extended forecast below indicating that we will be “flirting” with snow much of the week, but for now I’m still leaning towards us just getting plain rain this week.

Beyond Thursday we stay colder than normal and wet.

Extra Details

Predicting snow around here truly is a pain in the, well you know…  Anyway, there are so many factors that have to be considered, and tonight I have some more “game changers” for the Tuesday – Thursday timeframe which could give us some heavy wet snow.

Some of the forecasting models indicate steady and heavy precip could drag the snow level down to the valley floor.  This has happened before.  It’s how we got that snowstorm in March several years ago.  The problem with this setup is everything has to come together just right or else we end up with only cold rain.  Check out this simulated radar image for early Tuesday morning.  It shows in the blue some very heavy snow falling in parts of the valley while the rest of us sit under a cold heavy rain.  Hard to say what will happen…. 

Of course there are countless other maps and charts I look at, but this one I felt did the best job of showing how borderline we are going to be this week with seeing or not seeing snow.  Something to keep in mind.  Look for another update by Monday night as I should have a better idea by then.

Enjoy your Monday 🙂

The forecast seems to be on track thus far which is making me pretty happy.  As expected, temps across the mid valley were between 32 and 35 degrees this morning depending on elevation.  In fact elevation made all the difference in the world concerning who saw snow and who didn’t.  Here are some images of the road conditions from earlier.  If you are familiar with these streets then you will notice south Salem in particular was a winter wonderland this morning while the rest of Salem & Keizer had almost no snow on the ground with the higher west Salem hills as the only exception.

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The rest of today and tonight:  A few more snow showers will roll in through the course of the afternoon, but they will not stick as we are a bit above freezing now; however cold air is pouring down from Canada and by 4 or 5pm I expect us to be back down to near freezing.  Anything that falls after that point in time should stick, so plan on icy roads starting this evening.

I’m forecasting a decent chance for widespread snowfall tonight as we will have a fairly similar situation to the one that brought us snow earlier this week.  I’ve posted the simulated radar for roughly 3AM.  You can see a nice band of snow directly over us.  We will be plenty cold by this point, so I’m going with ½” – 2 inches for everyone.

Sunday:  we wake up to a frozen landscape with temps in the low to mid 20s.  It will be a slow thaw as we creep towards freezing by the late afternoon.

Sunday night:  Another storm rolls in which should start out as snow, but will very quickly switch over to rain leaving us with a slushy dusting to an inch at best.

Monday:  I now fully expect Monday to be a cold rainy day with breezy south winds.  Our regular school and work schedules will most likely be just fine this day.

Monday night/Tuesday:  This is a major storm with estimated total precip being around 1.5 – 2”!!!  Now a lot of that is probably going to be rain, but if we are somehow colder than expected this could be a huge snowstorm.  For now I’m thinking we start with some rain change over to a heavy wet snow and then during the day Tuesday we make the switch to freezing rain (briefly) and then just plain old rain.  Tuesday is going to be a rough day for anyone trying to travel.  I’m thinking 1 – 4” for the valley floor with 2 – 6” for the higher hills around town, and up to a foot plus above 1000’.  In addition to that we will likely see up to an inch of rain on top of that Tuesday afternoon which could make for some localized flooding.

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Beyond Tuesday we stay in a very cold and wet pattern setting us up for more snow events/storms…

It truly is going to be an extremely wild couple of weeks regarding the weather, and depending on how things set up such as tracks of the storms, how cold the air is, and how much moisture there is, we could be looking at some very “epic” snow totals.

First things first.  This evening we have a strong front pushing in from the NW bringing a good dose of precipitation with it.  Here’s a link to the radar:

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Timeline

Tonight:  Rain, heavy at times.  Snow could easily mix in down to the valley floor, but it will not stick in the lowest elevations initially.  This is tricky business as both elevation and proximity to the Gorge will make all the difference in the world for how much snow everyone sees.

Check out these pics from around 4:30pm.  Snow sticking in the Coast Range of NW Oregon and that cold air and precip is headed our direction.

 

Possible Game Changers

If temps are just a couple degrees colder than forecast giving us much more snow.

If the low pressure takes longer to drop south then we will end up with mostly just a cold rain.

Precip sticks around longer than forecast Saturday allowing for higher snow totals.

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Details

Saturday:  Snow showers with temps holding really close to 33/34° which makes it super difficult to forecast snow totals.  My best guess is a dusting to 3 inches.  4 to 5 inches above 500’.  This is still not looking like a big snowstorm for us Salem people.

Sunday:  We start off cold.  Probably somewhere in the low to mid 20s before warming up close to freezing.  Snow moves in Sunday night giving us another shot at a dusting to an inch or two before changing over to rain very early Monday morning.

Monday morning:  Could end up being a fairly regular first half of the day with a cold rain or rain/snow mix.  Snow levels around 1000’.

Monday afternoon – Tuesday:  I’m watching for what could be a very snowy storm.  In my last forecast I had this storm coming in on Monday.  Well changes happen and expect many more changes to occur over the next day or two as we get closer to the event.  The most recent changes have made the forecast much more complicated.  The amount of moisture has increased since my last update which could give us more snow if it’s cold enough.  There’s also a chance we get plain old rain or freezing rain for part of the storm.  Either way we still look good for at least a couple of inches of snow during this timeframe.

Wednesday – Friday:  More opportunities for snow as we stay in a very cold, but wet pattern. 

Keep checking for the latest forecasts, and keep an eye on the WEATEHR ALERTS tab/page as that’s where I will post updates regarding any last minute “game changers.”   

Summary

Sometime tonight we switch to snow.  Everyone should get at least a dusting of snow and possibly up to 4 inches for the valley floor when all is said and by done Sunday morning.  Our roads might start off slushy/snowy, but I’m guessing that for the most part our roads stay clear much of the day.  As soon as the sun goes down Saturday evening everything will be freezing up quickly making travel anywhere Saturday evening treacherous.

Sunday:  Cold, dry with late day/evening snow.  A dusting to 2”.

Monday:  Rain or a rain/snow mix turning back into snow Monday night.  Another 1 – 3”.

Tuesday:  Freezing rain, rain and snow all are possible.  Basically a big mess.  Should have a lot more actual details within a day or two.

My take away message:  There is no sign of this cold weather pattern ending.  I’ve been saying it and I will say it again, we are looking at a prolonged period of cold weather with numerous opportunities for snow.  Buckle up, because it’s going to get crazy!!

 

 

I’ll start off with this awesome pic showing the capitol mall coated in white after Monday night’s little snow storm.

That was a nice little snow event.  It appears as though almost everyone received between one and two inches of snow with a little less on paved surfaces.  Since then we have stayed much colder than normal.  This morning we experienced by far the coldest temperatures of the winter. Look at the bitter cold east of the Cascades!! -7°F in Yakima!

We are in the beginning of what looks to be a very prolonged stretch of cold and snowy weather. The “storm” this past Monday night was just the warm up event. If you’re in a hurry I’ve got the 7 day forecast right here followed by the parts of the forecast I’m feeling most confident about. When you’ve got more time take a look at the important details further down.

First off notice many of the days are highlighted in yellow indicating low confidence specifically in regards to the paths of the storms. The very cold air is certain, but what’s not as certain is how much moisture will fall with each storm and where exactly will each storm go. Something to keep in mind as big changes to the forecast are possible over the next few days especially for Tuesday & Wednesday of next week.

High confidence

Much colder than normal temperatures will continue for the better part of the next two weeks, and possibly even beyond than that.

Multiple opportunities for widespread snowfall. I would say between Friday night and this time next week Salem should at a minimum see 3 to 6″ of snow, and it’s definitely in the realm of possibility we see much more than that.

Lots of snow above 1000′, in the Coast Range, and up in the Cascades.

Lots of snow through the Gorge. In fact, don’t be surprised to see I-84 closed more than once over the course of the next couple of weeks along with other highways around the state.

All the Details

Friday:  The calm before the storm(s), and perhaps the last day roads will be completely snow and ice free for a week, maybe even longer. 

Saturday:  A very interesting day as we should start off very early in the morning with rain before changing to a rain/snow mix around lunchtime & finally changing to all snow by evening as arctic air rushes in from the NE.  I’ll be closely watching the snow levels as they are predicted to not rise much above 1000’, so if precip is heavy enough and/or if temps are a little bit cooler than we could see more snow than current predictions indicate.  We will start the day in the mid to upper 30s before falling into the upper 20s by midnight.  Snow totals:  1 – 2” for the valley floor.   2 – 3” around 500’.   3 – 6” above 1000’.

Sunday:  Very early morning snow showers with lows in the 20s giving way to partly cloudy skies and highs near 32°.  Snow moves back in Sunday night. Snow totals:  nothing – 1”.

Monday:  Snowy much of the day with highs staying below freezing. Snow totals:  2 – 5” for the valley locations.  Up to 8” above 1000’.

Tuesday:  More snow likely.  Just not sure how much yet.  There’s lower confidence on the track of this storm which is why I am less certain regarding snow totals; however, what I do know is a very cold air mass will be over us.  I’m going with high temps between 29 and 32 degrees.  Very cold!!

Wednesday:  Similar to Tuesday.  The possibility is somewhat high that we see several inches of snow between Tuesday & Wednesday.  I should have a much better idea in a day or two. 

Thursday:  Cold and mostly dry.