Category: Salem Area Forecast

Snow & forecast update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment
Who got snow and who didn’t…

As always “the devil is in the details” lol…  It looks like the east side of the valley did in fact do slightly better in terms of snowfall (and they could get more), especially considering Salem has nothing still.  The Coast is the biggest winner so far with many locations north of Lincoln City receiving 1 to 4 inches of snow.  Even down to sea level!!  This pic of highway 101 near Seaside from earlier really shows the winter wonderland over there.

Seaside snow 2.4

Since Salem once again missed out on the snow I thought I would share this collection of pics from locations around the region to help ease the pain 😉

*The pic with the red truck was taken along at the coast near Astoria, the beach pic is Haystack Rock, the ruler pic is from Cannon Beach, & the snowy house is from Washougal.*

ENJOY!

 

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A quick recap of our “storm” so far

The Good

Cold air aloft had little trouble making it here.  I understand it’s not crazy cold down here in the valley, but you don’t have to travel far to find temps below freezing. 

Here are the temps around the northwest as of noon.  A very chilly air mass!!  Look at Seattle still in the mid 20s!  That’s some cold arctic air just to our north!

noon temps 2.4 

The forecast for the coast and Coast Range worked out very well with all those areas receiving snow and in some places a bit of it. 

Forecast for the east side of the valley went okay.  Not as much snow as I predicted, but in general east side locations like Stayton and Scio all ended up with a dusting which is more than Salem got, so I’m giving myself a passing grade on this part of the forecast.

The bad and the ugly

Not enough moisture.  Many of the weather models and consequently myself overestimated the amount of precip that would make it into the valley.  If you want snow in a pattern like this then you need heavy or steady precip to literally help “pull the cold air down.”  Yes, that’s actually a real thing as steady precip often times forces & brings cold air down with it from higher up.  This is exactly what happened at the coast which is why they ended up with snow and we didn’t.  I banked my forecast on at least a few more showers making it over the Coast Range and that did not happen. 😦

So what’s ahead?

A weak band of precip will slide primarily along the east side of the valley producing snow in the air.  Snow will not stick due to the “heating of the day,” but if the precip can stick around into the evening hours than locations like Silverton, Canby, Molalla, Scio, and Stayton/Sublimity could all see a dusting of snow. Emphasis on no more than a dusting as I don’t see a lot of moisture to work with, plus we are several degrees above freezing currently.

Possible game changers
  • Depending on where the precip band shifts we could see no snow even in the air or more snow if it moves close to us.
  • If moisture is heavier than forecast we could end up with a nice snowy night tonight.

Looking further ahead

Tuesday – Thursday:  Vast majority of this time will be dry.  A light rain or snow shower is possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, but that’s it.  Partly cloudy skies should rule the day.  Just keep in mind it’s going to be chilly.

Friday – Sunday:  Closely watching for a better opportunity for widespread and possibly significant snowfall.  None of this hit or miss weak shower stuff.  More to come on this potential tonight or tomorrow.

 

 

 

Sunday morning update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Big time forecast right here with a lot to cover, so let’s get down to it!!  Highlights first and then the extra details.

Feb 3

Highlights

Today:  Showers much of the day with snow levels around 500’ – 1000’.

Tonight.  Snow level drops down to the valley floor.

Monday:  Snow showers throughout the day with highs in the mid to upper 30s.  Everyone should at least have a coating of snow with a few inches very possible for those of you around 500’ or higher.  A cold day for sure!

Tuesday:  Very light snow early on turning partly cloudy in the afternoon.  Highs will be close to 40°.

Wednesday:  Cold & dry.

Thursday – Saturday:  More opportunities for snow as both cold air and moisture come together right over our area.  More on that another day, for now you just know that this cold and potentially snowy weather is going to continue for a while.

Details, and lots of them 😉

I’m watching very closely our temps both at the surface and up above to help determine our chances for sticking snow on the valley floor.  It seems likely that we all see at least a coating of snow with the higher hills around town picking up 1 – 3 inches through Monday evening.  Keep in mind that it’s possible our roads stay mostly clear even if we get a little coating of snow as it’s hard for snow to really stick to pavement when it’s only 32/33° especially during the daylight hours.  If we stay just a couple degrees colder than what I’m thinking and or if there ends up being more moisture then we could easily see more snowfall.

Monday night into early Tuesday a band of light precipitation will likely drop another dusting of snow for just about all of us.

I continue to believe that the east side of the Willamette Valley will see higher snow totals these next few days as the moisture and snow showers sort of “backs up” against the foothills of the Cascades.

Beyond Tuesday there are three things popping out at me.  One is the nice dry break in the weather Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.  Second thing is the consistency in the weather models showing more opportunities for snow starting Thursday and lasting through next Sunday.  In fact I have fairly high confidence we see even more snow during that second half of the week than we see these next few days!

The third thing is perhaps the most interesting thing to me.  Starting today it appears as though we will be entering into a near historic cold spell.  Not historic because of how cold it will be, but historic due to the sheer length of time I expect the colder than average weather to last.  I understand this could change, but I have to say that in all my experience forecasting weather I have rarely seen this much agreement between models for the extended period which leads me to believe this colder pattern is going to last quite a while.  Naturally one would expect increased chances for snow with such a cold pattern, and that’s exactly what I’m seeing.  In fact I see numerous opportunities for snow over the next couple of weeks.  So like it or not, it’s quite possible we are in for a very prolonged February cold spell!!

The Coast, Coast Range, & Cascades

Snow should fall to sea level Sunday night and Monday.  This pattern also favors snow along the coast.  The Coast Range will be very snowy with 4 to 8 inches expected now through Tuesday, and the Cascades will of course be snowy as well with 6 to 12 inches up there over the next 3 days.

Some fun “do it yourself” forecasting tools for predicting snow

You may want to keep an eye on these maps as they are some of the best indicators as to whether or not we will have snow.  I don’t think I’ve had links like this so hopefully they work 😉

This first map shows temps in Celsius at roughly the elevation of Santiam pass (about 4,800′).  When winds are out of the south or from the west (onshore winds) we generally want to see at least -6° or colder in order to see sticking snow to the valley floor.  “Warmer” temps can do the trick just fine if and only if: 1.)   the precip is heavy enough,  2.)  the winds are very light or calm, or 3.)   if winds are out of the north or east like the cold winds out of the Gorge.  Basically as long as we are on the blue side of the lines.

This second map shows temps in Celsius at about 2500′ in elevation.  If you are rooting for snow than all we typically need is to be somewhere in the blue.  It’s better to be at -2°C or colder, but even 0°C at this elevation can do the trick if precip is heavy enough or if the winds are light or calm or from the north or east.

 

 

 

Friday AM update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

A few updates for you this fine Friday morning.  If you are in a hurry here’s the latest.

Feb 1

The biggest change has to do with Saturday being much drier than previously thought as the rain will be just about finished before we even wake up Saturday morning.  A nice change if you wish to be outdoors.

Now for the details. 

Here’s a review of what I’m feeling most confident about.

High confidence

1.)  Everyone at least sees snow in the air at some point either Monday and or Tuesday.  Keep in mind that when I throw snowflakes up on the forecast graphic it does not necessarily translate into accumulating snowfall.  It simply means our atmosphere is cold enough to keep the precipitation as snow all the way to the valley floor.  Whether or not we are below freezing for it to stick is a whole separate issue.

2.)  Anyone living above roughly 1000’ stands a very good chance of receiving a couple inches, if not more.

3.)  I still think those of you on the east side of the valley have a better shot at seeing accumulating snowfall with this setup.

Breaking it down day by day

Today:  Forecast is on track for a wet day.

Saturday:  As mentioned, a decent chunk of the day will be dry.  Rain moving in after dinnertime. 

Sunday:  Cool with showers.  The afternoon and evening look to be the wettest.

Monday:  Lots of details still up in the air, but with one new change.  I’ve bumped the temps up slightly for Monday which will make it just a little bit tougher to have widespread accumulating snow on the valley floor.  Note that when I say “slightly” I’m thinking highs 39/40° instead of 37/38° and lows right around 32/33°, so a small difference, and still quite chilly.  Cold enough still to produce at least a rain snow mix for the valley.

Tuesday:  Mostly cloudy with very light rain & snow showers possible. 

Wednesday & Thursday:  With how much things change around here I ought to not say much other than both days look cold lol…

Final thoughts

As I mentioned in the previous update it currently looks as though we will see a lot of snow in the air, but only end up with a dusting or some slush.  For now I’m still not seeing a setup for a good snowstorm.  I still expect many more changes as time goes on and I’ll do my best to relay those to you all.

Winter is Coming!!!

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast1 Comment

I’ve been waiting all winter to post this….

Brace-yourself-Winter

I imagine by now you have seen or heard forecasts for snow next week.  Well I’ve seen them too and I have to say I’m pretty excited. 

Many details are still up in the air, so I won’t get too carried away with specific snow amounts or anything like that, but I’ll try to sort out what seems certain at this point in time.

Right now I have high confidence in three things happening this coming week.
  1. Colder than normal temps are on the way.  This one is just about set in stone.  Sunday through most of next week will be cold.  Right now I’m going for highs in the upper 30s/low 40s.
  2. Snow levels near the valley floor. Everyone should at least see snow flying through the air, and my confidence is growing that everyone will also see at least a slushy “dusting” of snow similar to last February’s event with the possibility for a bit more.
  3. Unless something changes, this is not a setup for a big snow storm. Notice I’m only talking about a dusting or so for the lowest elevations.  Subject to change as there are hints that we could see some heavier snowfall…

The next 7 days

jan 30

Day by day details & highlights

Tonight:  The atmosphere is going to moisten up just enough to allow some areas of fog or freezing fog to develop.

Thursday:  Unless we get trapped under a blanket of fog it will be mostly sunny and dry like today with another cold start.  Lows starting out in the mid to upper 20s.  Clouds moving in later in the day.

Friday & Saturday:  Wet.

Sunday:  Frequent showers and cool with snow levels lowering through the day.

Sunday night:  Our first shot at snowfall as very chilly showers roll onshore. 

Monday:  By Monday morning I expect at least a dusting of snow just about everywhere with more respectable accumulations in the higher elevations.  This type of pattern favors those of you living on the east side of the valley as that region will receive more precipitation with the cold air posed to move in.

Tuesday:  A few leftover snow showers & cold.

Wednesday:  Looks dry for now, but very cold start to the day.  Coldest lows of the winter likely.

Beyond Wednesday:  All I know is the cold looks to continue…

Fog for the win

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

All week long I’ve mentioned my concerns about fog developing this weekend keeping our temps cooler than they would otherwise be.  Turns out the fog won.  You can see the entire valley cloaked under the blanket of fog on this visible satellite image from this morning.

fog 1.26

If we had stayed free of the fog (say that 3 times fast) we could easily be in the 50s right now.  Just look at the temp at the top of Santiam Pass right now.  It’s a balmy 54° with more daytime to come.  It will get up to almost 60 up there today!!  Back here in Salem it’s a nice cool 39° thanks to our fog 😉

santiam pass warm 1.26

I see no reason why Sunday and possibly Monday won’t also end up foggy.  In fact there’s a chance for fog almost every single day this next week.  The only exceptions are the days it’s supposed to rain lol…  Here’s a look at the next 7 days.  Notice the lack of green highlighting indicating the variability in our temps which all depend on how much or how little fog we end up with.

jan 26

  • Dry through Tuesday
  • Showers on Wednesday
  • Dry Thursday
  • Wet for next weekend

Last, but not least I have some food for thought.  This graph shows the number of days with highs below 36°F per winter for Salem, OR.  It goes back to the winter of 1997/1998.  In the scheme of things this is a very short time frame, so don’t draw too many conclusions from it.  I just thought it was a fun bit of info to share.

salem cold high temps

 

 

Boring winter weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

I’m sure a number of you enjoy this dry weather, but those of you who know me well know I love a good storm whether it be lots of rain, wind, snow, or ice, and sadly we have not had very many good storms at all this year. It’s been an especially boring winter overall with warmer than average temps and drier than normal rainfall, but life goes on.

Highlights

It looks to stay dry and mild for the foreseeable future with the minor exception of Wednesday when some very light rain showers will come through.

Following up on our “warm” weather potential this weekend I’ve decided to lower the high temps just a smudge. It will still be above average, but only mid 50s at best. Patchy fog is possible just about every single day this week which could keep temps cooler than what is currently forecast.