Tag: weather

Heavy rains, flooding next week

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a busy day for me looking over flood maps, rain charts, and different forecasts. Needless to say, we have some very heavy rain on the way, and not only heavy, but prolonged too with some flooding looking very likely now. Details below:

The quick version

Typical rainy weather continues now through Monday, and by this I mean periods of rain or scattered showers. Some brief periods of moderate to heavy rain, but no threat for flooding during this time frame. Between now and Monday afternoon I expect around 1 – 1.5 inches of rain in total.

Monday night through Wednesday: Steady rain during the majority of both these days with frequent periods of heavier rain. Winds will be pretty gusty at times throughout this period too. I’m thinking gusts 35 to 40mph. Not real strong, but if soils are saturated, and they will be, I could see a few isolated instances of trees coming down here in the valley and along with those trees, some power lines. Please be prepared for some power outages next week.

Extended forecast

We are approaching the event and close enough to share some estimated rainfall totals. I’m thinking Salem easily sees over 2 inches between Tuesday and Wednesday alone, and this could be a rare time where we see upwards of 4 inches within a couple of days. Depending on which side of these totals we end up on, we could see some real serious localized flooding on the small creeks around town.

Remember, in situations like this conditions can vary greatly depending on location. My forecasts are typically centered around Salem, but generally can be used and are valid for locations like: Monmouth, Independence, Albany, Silverton, Wilsonville, Canby, and any locations nearby or in between. This next graphic shows my thoughts for this region for Monday – Wednesday.

This next graphic covers flood risk for local rivers. There are many more creeks and rivers around our region than I had time for, but this should give you a good idea of what to expect.

If you live near any sort of creek, river, flood basin etc. that is not listed, then you should be paying attention to water levels and hopefully you can sort of estimate what might happen based on the information I’ve provided.

For the most part, expect smaller creeks to rise quickly during the midst of our rainstorm next week, but those same creeks should fall shortly after the heaviest rains end. The mid sized streams and rivers take longer to rise to flood stage which is why most of those may not flood until late Tuesday night or Wednesday.

I still do not expect the Willamette River to flood. It will of course rise a lot, and I could see River Road heading out towards Independence closing (maybe), but there is just no snowpack to melt, and the Cascade reservoirs have a ton of storage capacity right now. Our biggest floods historically have always happened when we have a large snowpack present in the Cascades, and (typically) when the reservoirs are already closer to capacity. Those two factors are really going to save us from what could have been much worse flooding this time.

The coast and Coast Range

Stormy! Not necessarily super strong winds or huge waves, but the combination of the heavy rain, gusty winds, and higher than normal waves for several days straight will make for wild times along our coastline. Rain totals of 5 to 8 inches are likely over the next five days, wind gusts of 40 to 50mph Monday afternoon through Wednesday night, and at least some flooding is likely on most of the coastal rivers.

Phew! There’s a lot going on next week, and winter is still young, so I’ve created a Discord server with several “channels” on it. On Discord you will find a channel where you can share questions, comments, or your current weather conditions. There is a “photos” channel designed for easily sharing weather related photos. I’ve also added a couple of channels for linking these “Bryan Weather Alert” forecasts, and lastly, I added a channel which will be great for sharing quick, but important updates to the forecast! It should be a lot of fun, an easy place to finally share weather related photos together, and a great way to engage as a community a little.

Please feel free to join the Bryan Weather Alert community on this newly created Discord server! Bryan Weather Alerts on Discord

Take care, and stay safe out there! I’m certain I’ll have more updates in the next few days.

Looking towards Thanksgiving

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

Things have been real mellow around here, and up until the past couple of days, it’s been quite mild too. Salem achieved a record high of 65° this past Saturday. The only thing that has really changed from this week compared to the previous week are the cooler temperatures. We hit the 60 degree mark eight days this month, but since that record high on the 15th, we have been in a cooling trend. Salem finally got down to 32° this morning for the first time this fall, and we never broke out of the 40s. Inversion season is definitely here!

The main message is that there are still no big storms on our horizon. No flooding scenarios, strong winds, chances for snow etc. Just more of the same: a little rain at times, some fog, and a few sunbreaks. The riveting details are below:

Tonight: Light rain switching over to scattered showers overnight. Chilly with temps in the mid to low 40s. Brrrrr!

THU: A few showers early. Dry afternoon and evening. High of 54°.

FRI & SAT: Dry. Fog seems very likely both days with a few sunbreaks possible during the afternoons. Highs in the upper 40s.

SUN & MON: Some rain both days, but nothing big or major that would cause significant issues for our day to day lives.

Looking ahead to the days leading up to Thanksgiving, and Thanksgiving itself, I continue to see no big storms. Maybe some mountain snow to deal with, but will have more updates again as we get closer to the holiday. The main message is that this rather calm weather pattern appears to continue for another week.

Warm Novembers

We have had a very warm November so far running almost 4 degrees above normal! Check out this map showing temperature departures from average so far this November.

Very warm in the west, and cooler along the east coast. Well I’m here to tell you that warm Novembers do not correlate to warm winters. In fact, maybe quite the opposite. Below I’ve charted temperature departure maps from four different years. All four of these years had similar La Nina conditions to what we have now, and all four of these years had very mild November temperatures – also very similar to what we have seen so far this November.

Looks similar right? Very warm out west and cooler along the east coast. Well, what happened after each of those warm Novembers? This next chart shows temperature departures for December through February from all four of those same years.

As you can see, the rest of those winters actually ended up on the cooler side. In some cases significant cooldowns occurred which lead to valley snowfall. How many of you remember December 2008 when it snowed several times in the weeks leading up to Christmas? Or December 2016 when it snowed several inches leading to an early Christmas break. Point is, a warm November does not equal a warm winter. If you could only see some of the comments in the weather forums I’m in then you would be laughing yourself to sleep. People claiming winter is over, others saying things like it’s difficult to imagine even the ski resorts getting enough snow to open this winter, and other super ridiculous nonsense.

We could end up with a dry and mild winter (has happened before, and it will happen again), but I’m not real worried considering it’s only the 19th of November, and again, the data I just shared indicates that warm Novembers do not necessarily lead to warm winters. Let’s see what happens…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and stay safe out there!

The next nine days

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Can you believe it’s almost Friday and the end of October? Time to look ahead at the forecast for this weekend (many of you want to know), plus the forecast for next week, and at the very end I have a fun little weather history tidbit for you.

I’ve combed through the weather models searching and searching and I cannot find a single completely dry 24 hour period after Friday through at least the next ten days! Eventually we’ll see dry weather again, it always comes back, but it’s very clear we are entering full on rainy season mode here in western Oregon. We have a lot of rainy, grey, and damp November weather on tap with only very short respites here and there.

Extended forecast

Highlights

Friday: The first half of the evening looks dry . Late evening activities could get rained on. Rain will begin earlier in the evening the further northwest you go. So the Portland metro could see a rainier Halloween evening than Salem. Locations south and east of Salem could easily stay dry well through midnight. If you’re wondering why apps keep on changing their forecasts for this Friday it’s because it just doesn’t get much closer than this. The estimated radar image for 8pm Friday night shows a band of rain just to our northwest. Move that sucker 25 miles closer and we have a very wet evening. See how tricky that is?

Saturday: Wet with rain much of the day.

Sunday: This is it! It could be mostly dry during the daylight hours Sunday, so take advantage of it! 🙂

Mon – Tue: Wet at times, but nothing real wild.

Wednesday: This storm looks a little more impactful with heavier rain likely, and possibly some gusty winds.

Thursday & Friday: It seems like another pretty wet storm system will move in at some point during these two days bringing steady rain and possibly more gusty winds.

Impacts

None of the storms this coming week appear capable of producing really strong winds. Instead plan on typical run of the mill 30 to 40mph gusts. Should this change, then I would of course do my very best to inform you. Right now the biggest issue weather will have on your day to day life (other than getting soaking wet outside) is the likelihood of clogged/backed up drains creating ponding on roadways and in some parking lots. As far as mountain snow goes, well I don’t see very much at all over the next 8 days. These storms will be on the mild side. This means wet and rainy Cascade passes.

Some fun weather facts for you all. I looked back into the history and record books, and I found out that in 1935 it snowed 5 inches officially at the Salem Airport on Halloween making it the earliest snowfall in Salem on record.

As far as the single snowiest day in Salem’s recorded history goes, it appears the record was set in 1937 when 25 inches fell between January 31st and February 1st. There are several documents (journals, weather reports etc.) indicating that up to 33+ inches fell in parts of south Salem in just those two days alone! Check out this photo from downtown Salem after the storm. Keep in mind this all happened after 6 to 12 inches of snow had already fallen during the week prior.

And this next photo was taken on State Street in downtown Salem after the storm.

What would happen if that took place today?!?!? I suppose every winter brings with it new opportunities for something wild to happen, and since Friday marks the earliest snowfall on record here, I figured it’s time to start keeping an eye out for snow…. Or, we could end up with a snowless winter which happens far more often than big snowstorms around here. :/ Time will tell…

Okay, stay safe out there, remind your kids to be respectful and mindful of people, property, and cars when running around from house to house in search of candy (sounds a little weird when you think about it lol), and of course, have fun! 🙂

October

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Welcome to October!! This is an exciting time of year for weather here, and I have a full post loaded with stats, maps, charts, graphs, and fun facts. Take a look at the headlines in case you’re short on time.

Headlines

  • Detailed look at temperatures in September.
  • Detailed look at precipitation from September and from the past year.
  • Detailed look at what to expect in October.
  • A quick forecast for the next several days is located at the very bottom.

September 2025 in review

The month started off very warm and humid. The first five days of the month had highs above 80°. We also had a couple of thunderstorms in the area, but nothing widespread. In general, warm/humid conditions dominated the first half of the month. So warm that it took until the 15th before we finally experienced a temperature cooler than the lowest temperature from August! The rest of the month went on without anything real notable. Our coldest temperature took place the morning of the 26th with a chilly low of 43°, and the hottest temperature of the month occurred on the 16th with a high of 93°.

This first graph shows Salem’s daily high temperatures compared to our average high temperatures.

This next chart is the same exact information, but displayed like a calendar of September (well minus the dates lol). Days highlighted grey indicate highs right at average for that day, orange highlighting indicates warmer than average high temperatures, and then we have blue representing colder than average highs. It’s a fun alternative way to display the same information.

More warm days than cool days, and when combined with our warm overnight lows, September 2025 ended 2.1° above normal. Thumb through these next images to see temperature anomalies from June, July, and August for the lower 48. These provide an easy way to see how summer played out across the nation. Note that September maps are not available at this time.

Moving onto precipitation, the winter of 2024/2025 was on the slightly drier side of things for the Pacific Northwest as a whole. This map shows how much precipitation we have received over the past year. You can see the slight “rain shadow” effect of the Coast Range and a much more significant effect from the Cascades. The wettest location is a little spot located in the southern Oregon Coast Range where 187″ of precip were recorded over the past year!!

Despite all the rain, we are currently in a little bit of drought.

You can have buckets full of rain, but if you live in a location where tons of rain is normal, then it is still possible to experience drought conditions. It all depends on when the rain falls (too much at once versus spread out over time), and of course how much rain has fallen in total. This year, we had an unusually dry April, May, and June which put us behind as we headed into our dry summer.

Notice how well a large chunk of central and eastern Oregon are doing in regards to precipitation. That’s thanks to the numerous thunderstorms they saw during August and early September.

Regardless of the slightly drier weather, it’s amazing to see the sheer volume of snow that still piled up in our mountains since last year. Check this out!

The seasons are changing, it was foggy this morning, we had measurable rainfall four days this week which was our longest wet streak since May, and I believe our drought conditions will soon be behind us! Time to move onto October to see what lies in store…

October

October is a new beginning for Salem and the pacific northwest. October 1st is officially the beginning of our rainfall (water) year, our average high plunge from 72° on the 1st down to 58° by the end of the month, record lows start dipping into the 30s and then the 20s, and precipitation doubles from what we normally see in September. Put all together, and no other month features such a drastic change in our local weather as October does.

A very good question people ask this time of year is why our rainfall records begin on October 1st and not January 1st. The reason is because the vast majority of our rainfall takes place October through March, and if we stuck with the traditional date of January 1st for record keeping then we would be cutting our rainy season in half. Having it begin in October simply makes sense for record keeping, historical analysis, water management, forecasting for water availability, drought outlooks etc.

What is ahead?

Well, I’m still going with a few scattered showers this Saturday. Much of the day should remain dry, but it would be wise to plan on at least one or two brief showers moving through at some point during the day.

Sun – Tue: Totally dry. Highs gradually rise from 71° Sunday up to 77° come Tuesday. Lows each morning will begin in the low to mid 40s. Lots of sunshine during these three days!

Wed: Lower than usual confidence at the moment for both Wed and Thu. For now expect clouds to increase with a slight chance of rain late in the day on Wednesday. High of 68°.

Thu: Showers possible. Highs 62 – 65°.

There you have it! Get outside this weekend or early next week if possible, and enjoy the beautiful weather!!

A weekend soaking and look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s a beautiful Thursday afternoon and temperatures are in the low 70s here in the mid Willamette Valley. I have a short update on our wet weather plus a look into next week and beyond below.

The forecast

Our wet weekend is still very much on track. This weekend’s showers and rain show up very nicely on this ensemble chart. Remember, time goes from left to right on here and each horizontal line is a predicted outcome, and in this case, the outcome is precipitation. When viewing these charts we look for general agreement and trends.

Besides the soaking rain this weekend, you can spot the real light rain/sprinkle chance showing up for next Thursday (the 26th). I also noticed a higher than usual number of ensembles predicting a little bit of rain maybe the first few days of July. I’ll keep a close eye on that.

Friday will feature showers with just a few sun breaks here and there between showers. Quick hitting thunderstorms and heavy downpours are possible for all valley locations. The simulated radar image below does a good job depicting this scenario around 2pm Friday.

On Saturday we will actually see some steady rain during the morning/early afternoon hours before transitioning to a few showers later in the day. Again, downpours are definitely possible for all areas west of the Cascades. Steady rain will make it hard for high temps to top 60°.

Sunday: Expect this day to be mostly dry, but an isolated shower or two will require people outdoors to keep an eye to the sky. Overall a much better day weather wise for outdoor activities. Highs around 71°

Mon & Tue: Partly cloudy (more clouds during the morning hours) with lots of afternoon sunshine. Highs 80 to 83°

Wed: Increasing onshore flow again will lower highs back into the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies.

Thu & Fri: Could see another sprinkle or light shower (similar to what we just saw this past Wednesday) at any point during this time frame, but especially Thursday morning. Highs in the mid low to 70s with sun breaks mixed in.

Sat – Mon: June will finish on a warm note with highs in the mid to upper 80s and mostly sunny! A huge contrast to what we will experience this coming weekend.

Take care, enjoy the west weather the best you can, and don’t forget to pray for the people God puts on your heart today. Our world could use more prayer right now.

A very dry spring with rain on the way

On By bryanweatherIn 2024/2025, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a long time since I posted. The weather has generally been extremely uneventful, plus I’ve been busier than usual with work and side projects (including the garden). Regardless, I figured it was time for an update.

The forecast

Wed & Thu: Onshore flow increases pushing in a stronger marine layer along with a very weak front. This will result in highs in the low to mid 70s. Expect plentiful AM clouds with PM sun breaks. We could see a sprinkle Wednesday morning; otherwise, these two days will remain dry.

Fri: PM showers. A cold atmosphere up above will result in the possibility of thundershowers too. Some of the downpours could be quite heavy. Highs right around 60°.

Sat: Additional showers and thundershowers with a more steady rain likely during the late afternoon and evening hours. This will produce a widespread soaking rain for areas west of the Cascades. Downpours will have potential to be heavy. Highs will struggle to reach 60°

Sun: Showers wrap up with much of the day being dry. Just keep in mind that showers could still take place during the day on Sunday. Highs into the lower 70s again.

Mon – Wed: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Highs around 80° each day. Lows will start out chilly right around 50 to 53°.

Rain totals look to range from half an inch to just over an inch of rain here in the Willamette Valley. This will bring much needed precipitation to our region!

Aside from the first week of April, we have been unusually dry this spring. The few “rainy” days we have seen the past 8 weeks have not produced more than a third of an inch on any given day. The map below shows percent of normal precipitation locations have picked up between April 18th and June 17th. Many valley locations are running at a mere 15 to 25% of average.

We are running slightly better precipitation wise than the dry and hot spring of 2021. That year brought our most intense heatwave ever with temperatures soaring above 110° throughout the Willamette Valley. That was an awful experience. Luckily, no signs of hot weather.

As far as temperature goes, May 2025 went down in the history books as only being 0.2° above normal. For all practical purposes that’s considered average. At the moment, June is running 3.5 degrees above normal, a special thanks to the hot spell last weekend. That number will fall dramatically by this time next week due to the much cooler weather moving in.

For reference, I added a chart showing total rainfall for Salem during the month of May going back to 1997.

There is no clear trend here. The only notable thing I could see was the tendency for totals to range more drastically over the past several years, but in the grand scheme of things, several years is hardly a trend.

We’ll see where we end up for rainfall in June. For now enjoy the continued dry weather, and keep in mind that Friday through Sunday will be generally wet.

The Cascades

Planning on hiking or camping up high? Well, plan on some snowfall Friday night through Saturday night. Snow levels will dip down low enough for the volcano summits/peaks to pick up several inches of snow. Timberline, the tops of the sisters, Jefferson Park, Crater Lake, and any other peaks above roughly 5500 feet could see snow this weekend. Keep this in mind. Spots along the PCT (Pacific Crest Trail) could also see snowfall impacting hikers and backpackers this weekend. By Sunday afternoon the summer sun returns and the snow up there will quickly begin melting off again.

Wild weather!

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Time for a storm and forecast update. The rain portion of the forecast is working out very well. Salem officially picked up 0.84″ of rain Saturday. So far today we are now over an inch and counting. Here are the Sunday rainfall totals as of 4pm.

Heavy rain came down over a large swath of the central Willamette Valley earlier this afternoon driving up creek levels and causing a few isolated spots of ponding. The Luckiamute River is just one example showing the cause and effect of all that rain.

Other rivers and creeks have also shown sharp rises today. Mill Creek in Salem is currently below flood stage, but it showed a quick jump in its level today as a result of the rain. Looks like it rose almost 2 feet since 10pm last night! No major flooding is expected, and the break in the rain will help ease those creeks some.

Expect just a few scattered showers at most over the next 12 hours as we enjoy a break in the steady rain. The next batch of rain arrives around 4am early Monday morning and will last for a few hours before ending mid morning leaving us with sunbreaks and a very unstable atmosphere tomorrow afternoon.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning

Wild weather will be on tap during this time frame. Heavy downpours, strong gusty winds, and even thunderstorms are possible during Monday afternoon. Dynamics are in place which could lead to some strong thunderstorms -something which is pretty rare for our region. This estimated radar image for 4pm Monday afternoon shows an intense line of showers and storms rolling across the valley. These storms would bring very heavy rain, gusty winds, and of course the possibility for lightning and thunder.

The map above is not gospel truth, but it does give us a general idea of what Monday afternoon might look like by showing the potential for storms.

Additional showers and periods of rain fall during the night Monday through Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon should be fairly sunny with only a couple isolated showers leftover.

As far as the wind goes, I’m still expecting the strongest winds to take place Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Wind gusts since Saturday have generally underperformed with most locations in the valley seeing nothing higher than 35mph, which is still breezy, but not strong enough to cause lots of problems.

The storm coming in Monday is a totally different setup. This final round of wind will be a result of a low pressure racing northeast off our coastline. The path the storm is taking is ideal for bringing strong gusty winds to the valley. I’m confident we will see widespread gusts of 40 to 50mph resulting in scattered power outages across the valley.

Tuesday afternoon kicks off a several day stretch of calm and mild weather which should last through Friday.

Stay safe out there!!