Tag: weather

A weekend soaking and look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s a beautiful Thursday afternoon and temperatures are in the low 70s here in the mid Willamette Valley. I have a short update on our wet weather plus a look into next week and beyond below.

The forecast

Our wet weekend is still very much on track. This weekend’s showers and rain show up very nicely on this ensemble chart. Remember, time goes from left to right on here and each horizontal line is a predicted outcome, and in this case, the outcome is precipitation. When viewing these charts we look for general agreement and trends.

Besides the soaking rain this weekend, you can spot the real light rain/sprinkle chance showing up for next Thursday (the 26th). I also noticed a higher than usual number of ensembles predicting a little bit of rain maybe the first few days of July. I’ll keep a close eye on that.

Friday will feature showers with just a few sun breaks here and there between showers. Quick hitting thunderstorms and heavy downpours are possible for all valley locations. The simulated radar image below does a good job depicting this scenario around 2pm Friday.

On Saturday we will actually see some steady rain during the morning/early afternoon hours before transitioning to a few showers later in the day. Again, downpours are definitely possible for all areas west of the Cascades. Steady rain will make it hard for high temps to top 60°.

Sunday: Expect this day to be mostly dry, but an isolated shower or two will require people outdoors to keep an eye to the sky. Overall a much better day weather wise for outdoor activities. Highs around 71°

Mon & Tue: Partly cloudy (more clouds during the morning hours) with lots of afternoon sunshine. Highs 80 to 83°

Wed: Increasing onshore flow again will lower highs back into the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies.

Thu & Fri: Could see another sprinkle or light shower (similar to what we just saw this past Wednesday) at any point during this time frame, but especially Thursday morning. Highs in the mid low to 70s with sun breaks mixed in.

Sat – Mon: June will finish on a warm note with highs in the mid to upper 80s and mostly sunny! A huge contrast to what we will experience this coming weekend.

Take care, enjoy the west weather the best you can, and don’t forget to pray for the people God puts on your heart today. Our world could use more prayer right now.

A very dry spring with rain on the way

On By bryanweatherIn 2024/2025, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a long time since I posted. The weather has generally been extremely uneventful, plus I’ve been busier than usual with work and side projects (including the garden). Regardless, I figured it was time for an update.

The forecast

Wed & Thu: Onshore flow increases pushing in a stronger marine layer along with a very weak front. This will result in highs in the low to mid 70s. Expect plentiful AM clouds with PM sun breaks. We could see a sprinkle Wednesday morning; otherwise, these two days will remain dry.

Fri: PM showers. A cold atmosphere up above will result in the possibility of thundershowers too. Some of the downpours could be quite heavy. Highs right around 60°.

Sat: Additional showers and thundershowers with a more steady rain likely during the late afternoon and evening hours. This will produce a widespread soaking rain for areas west of the Cascades. Downpours will have potential to be heavy. Highs will struggle to reach 60°

Sun: Showers wrap up with much of the day being dry. Just keep in mind that showers could still take place during the day on Sunday. Highs into the lower 70s again.

Mon – Wed: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Highs around 80° each day. Lows will start out chilly right around 50 to 53°.

Rain totals look to range from half an inch to just over an inch of rain here in the Willamette Valley. This will bring much needed precipitation to our region!

Aside from the first week of April, we have been unusually dry this spring. The few “rainy” days we have seen the past 8 weeks have not produced more than a third of an inch on any given day. The map below shows percent of normal precipitation locations have picked up between April 18th and June 17th. Many valley locations are running at a mere 15 to 25% of average.

We are running slightly better precipitation wise than the dry and hot spring of 2021. That year brought our most intense heatwave ever with temperatures soaring above 110° throughout the Willamette Valley. That was an awful experience. Luckily, no signs of hot weather.

As far as temperature goes, May 2025 went down in the history books as only being 0.2° above normal. For all practical purposes that’s considered average. At the moment, June is running 3.5 degrees above normal, a special thanks to the hot spell last weekend. That number will fall dramatically by this time next week due to the much cooler weather moving in.

For reference, I added a chart showing total rainfall for Salem during the month of May going back to 1997.

There is no clear trend here. The only notable thing I could see was the tendency for totals to range more drastically over the past several years, but in the grand scheme of things, several years is hardly a trend.

We’ll see where we end up for rainfall in June. For now enjoy the continued dry weather, and keep in mind that Friday through Sunday will be generally wet.

The Cascades

Planning on hiking or camping up high? Well, plan on some snowfall Friday night through Saturday night. Snow levels will dip down low enough for the volcano summits/peaks to pick up several inches of snow. Timberline, the tops of the sisters, Jefferson Park, Crater Lake, and any other peaks above roughly 5500 feet could see snow this weekend. Keep this in mind. Spots along the PCT (Pacific Crest Trail) could also see snowfall impacting hikers and backpackers this weekend. By Sunday afternoon the summer sun returns and the snow up there will quickly begin melting off again.

Wild weather!

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Time for a storm and forecast update. The rain portion of the forecast is working out very well. Salem officially picked up 0.84″ of rain Saturday. So far today we are now over an inch and counting. Here are the Sunday rainfall totals as of 4pm.

Heavy rain came down over a large swath of the central Willamette Valley earlier this afternoon driving up creek levels and causing a few isolated spots of ponding. The Luckiamute River is just one example showing the cause and effect of all that rain.

Other rivers and creeks have also shown sharp rises today. Mill Creek in Salem is currently below flood stage, but it showed a quick jump in its level today as a result of the rain. Looks like it rose almost 2 feet since 10pm last night! No major flooding is expected, and the break in the rain will help ease those creeks some.

Expect just a few scattered showers at most over the next 12 hours as we enjoy a break in the steady rain. The next batch of rain arrives around 4am early Monday morning and will last for a few hours before ending mid morning leaving us with sunbreaks and a very unstable atmosphere tomorrow afternoon.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning

Wild weather will be on tap during this time frame. Heavy downpours, strong gusty winds, and even thunderstorms are possible during Monday afternoon. Dynamics are in place which could lead to some strong thunderstorms -something which is pretty rare for our region. This estimated radar image for 4pm Monday afternoon shows an intense line of showers and storms rolling across the valley. These storms would bring very heavy rain, gusty winds, and of course the possibility for lightning and thunder.

The map above is not gospel truth, but it does give us a general idea of what Monday afternoon might look like by showing the potential for storms.

Additional showers and periods of rain fall during the night Monday through Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon should be fairly sunny with only a couple isolated showers leftover.

As far as the wind goes, I’m still expecting the strongest winds to take place Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Wind gusts since Saturday have generally underperformed with most locations in the valley seeing nothing higher than 35mph, which is still breezy, but not strong enough to cause lots of problems.

The storm coming in Monday is a totally different setup. This final round of wind will be a result of a low pressure racing northeast off our coastline. The path the storm is taking is ideal for bringing strong gusty winds to the valley. I’m confident we will see widespread gusts of 40 to 50mph resulting in scattered power outages across the valley.

Tuesday afternoon kicks off a several day stretch of calm and mild weather which should last through Friday.

Stay safe out there!!

Heavy rain, wind set to move in

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We had a fun couple of days with snow and ice just over a week ago, and this past week has been fairly uneventful (a nice break for me haha), but this morning it has become very clear that impactful weather is returning to our region. Lots to cover, again, so let’s dive in!!

Main message

Copious amounts of rainfall and strong gusty winds will impact the region beginning tonight and lasting through Monday evening. Expect some power outages and localized flooding. More details below.

Details

There are three big stories with the series of storms set to move in: heavy rain, strong winds, and the potential for some rare (at least in this part of the world) strong thunderstorms. More on the wind and thunder later. Below are two separate maps showing estimated rainfall totals through Tuesday morning. Very clear message is we have LOTS of rain coming our way over the next three days!!

A good guess based on all the information I have available to me would be 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain now through Tuesday afternoon.

The rain will range in intensity over the next few days with periods of lighter rain being blown by the wind, and periods of intense heavy rain. Out of all the rain storms we have seen this winter, this is the one that has my attention the most for localized flooding and ponding on roadways. Any locations near flood prone creeks, ditches, low laying areas, or areas with poor drainage could flood with these storms.

Flood watches and warnings are also up for several coastal rivers, the Pudding River, and the Luckiamute River. Below is a forecasted river height for the Luckiamute River. It shows it rising 13 feet between now and early Monday morning!!

So that’s the rain portion of the forecast with the rain increasing as the day goes on. I’ll be honest, the term “atmospheric river” is way over used in the media; however, it’s appropriate to use it for such a time as this. This will likely be the heaviest rainstorm we have seen here in the mid Willamette Valley this entire winter season.

The wind

After reviewing all the weather models closely, I’m much more concerned about the impact wind will have with this storm than I was just a couple days ago. Right now it appears we will have gusts widespread 35 to 45mph during three separate periods of time. The first period is this afternoon and early evening with winds relaxing a little bit while we sleep. Round two will take place during the day Sunday. Round two will feature stronger gusts than what we see today.

The winds relax big time later Sunday evening through early Monday morning before round three moves in. Round three will contain the strongest winds of the entire storm. Gusts with this round could reach 50mph in some valley locations. Weather apps may be slow to pick up on this still, but Monday looks extremely stormy with additional power outages throughout the day. Peak wind gusts will occur during the daytimes hours on Monday. It will be a wild day at work no doubt! Plan on your power possibly being disrupted at some point over the next three days due to the combo of gusty winds and saturated soils.

Finally, we have rare threat for strong thunderstorms Monday. A warm front will lift through the region Monday morning. Behind the warm front, good forcing up in the atmosphere coupled with sunbreaks ahead of the cold front will create a recipe for thunderstorms that could bring very heavy rain and strong gusty winds to some locations.

Bottom line is we have a very active set of days ahead of us, and this series of storms has my attention more than any others we have seen this year.

If time allows, I would love to update you again on Sunday as I’m confident there will be new changes by then. Stay safe, be ready for power outages, and localized flooding, and enjoy the weekend!

Winter wonderland!!

On By bryanweatherIn 2024/2025, Archives, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Woo hoo! Snow has been widespread across the entire mid Willamette Valley! It’s clear now that we have either hit the upper end of my forecasted snow totals or surpassed them for this point in our winter storm with more on the way tonight through Friday morning.

At the moment we are currently in between the rounds of heavier precip, and the “heating of the day” has helped major roads clear up a bit, but conditions go down hill tonight as temperatures drop and as round #2 moves in, so don’t get stuck out there thinking all is well.

What’s ahead?

More snow tonight with freezing rain and sleet mixing in. This second wave of moisture still looks quite “juicy” lol with a solid half inch of melted down precip (or more) with round #2. I currently expect at least a little bit of freezing rain or sleet to mix in tonight before changing back over to all snow; however, models have already been trying to push the cold air out of here too quickly, and so for the moment I’m leaning towards more snow and not as much in the way of ice.

Either way, winds continue to breeze out of the north, and temperatures will be plenty cold enough that whatever falls from the clouds will be frozen or will freeze on contact (freezing rain). My best guess is an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow with some freezing rain. If this storm continues to overperform I could see us surpassing those totals too! There are always little twists and turns with our winter storms here…

Snow will come to an end Friday morning, but with the colder than expected temperatures and increased snowfall, we should plan on road conditions improving very SLOWLY through the day on Friday with side roads remaining in rough shape.

Refreezing Friday night with clearing skies will lead to more issues again on side roads and less traveled streets through early Saturday morning before finally thawing out the rest of the way.

One additional thing I want to mention is how the Salem Airport temperature sensor has been regularly reporting a bit warmer than surrounding stations. Even warmer than weather observation spots in downtown and east along Lancaster Drive. Mark Nelson posted this graphic from the other day showing just how off it’s been and that he has tracked this for a couple years now. He does excellent work for Fox 12 and I appreciate his attention to details and to locations outside the PDX metro if you ever need a good forecaster to watch on TV.

So if you’re curious why your weather sensor at home has you in the upper 20s, but your weather app says otherwise, well now you know! Even right now you can see it is way off compared to the rest of the city and local area sitting at 34° while the rest of us are in the upper 20s to around 30°.

Stay safe, and keep on enjoying the snowy and wintry weather!! 🙂

Snow and ice storm

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Less then 12 hours from now I anticipate Salem will be a winter wonderland with a coating of snow and maybe some freezing rain and sleet mixed in too. This is the perfect setup for snow and ice here in the valley. A cold northerly breeze is pumping in modified arctic air and very dry air too. This means our temperatures will drop even colder once the precip arrives very early Thursday morning. The process of the moisture taking or absorbing the heat out of the atmosphere is known as evaporational cooling.

Main message

Precipitation begins around 4 to 7am Thursday morning. Expect widespread snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Sleet and freezing rain could mix in. Snowy and wintry weather lasts through around 10 or 11am.

Between 11 and 4pm Thursday not much will be going on. Additional showers of snow or freezing rain are possible, but nothing long lasting or widespread. It’s also likely that we “warm” up above freezing for a few hours in the middle of the afternoon due to the increased sun angle and lack of precipitation falling. Should precip continue heavier than expected than the whole brief period of melting goes out the window… Expect poor travel conditions even if we get some melting!

Thursday night through about 10 or 11am Friday morning will feature another surge of moisture. This second wave has potential to really drop the hammer either in the form of heavy freezing rain, heavy snow, or a mix of both.

Bottom line is we have a solid snow and ice storm on tap beginning very early Thursday morning and lasting through the first half of Friday. Too soon to make the call for road conditions Friday night (Valentine’s Day).

More details

So I’m quite confident we have a snow and ice storm on the way, and I’m confident we will be more than cold enough for it to stick and accumulate on all surfaces. What is still up in the air is how much of precipitation falls all together, and how much falls as snow versus freezing rain. Check out how much precip this particular model has falling through Friday 8am.

That could be a whole lot of snow, or a scary amount of freezing rain, or a mixture of both, but then we have other weather models showing not quite as much precip. This next image below also is forecasting total precip, but it cuts the total literally in half. Sure it still gives Salem a hefty total good for 5 to 7 inches of snow, but that’s only half of what that first image advertised.

This next image shows that second batch of moisture directly over the Willamette Valley Thursday night into early Friday morning. The “SLE” is the Salem Airport. You can see how we are right on the edge of the freezing rain and sleet (pink coloring) and the heavy snow (blue coloring).

The important message is that we have a snow and ice storm on hand. How much do we get and is it more ice or more snow is a question we just can’t know this time around until it happens. Be prepared for icy roads, snowy conditions, and possible power outages. Truth is that around here it only takes an inch or two of snow to mess things up on the road anyway, so what’s an extra half foot between friends right? 🙂

Stay safe and enjoy the snow and ice!

Winter storm Thursday and Friday

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

This will be a very short post, but an important one. I’m confident a winter storm will impact our region beginning Thursday morning through at least Friday morning. I’ll have a nice post filled with more details and shiny graphics tomorrow. For now, plan on weather disrupting your daily routines beginning Thursday morning with rough travel conditions lasting through at least the first half of Friday. This means snowy and icy roads during this period of time – even during the daytime hours on Thursday.

The situation this time is much more simple compared to last week which is why I have such high confidence two days out. We are not dealing with isolated showers, the timing does not have to fall in the middle of the night, and we don’t have to worry about southerly winds. We will be plenty cold, and moisture will be abundant with chilly breezes continuing out of the north for the duration of this event. The perfect recipe for wintry weather.

How much precip will fall, and what form of frozen precip will we experience are the two big questions still up in the air. At the moment it looks like the Salem area will see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain through the course of the storm. Temperatures will be below freezing all day Thursday through at least Friday morning, so accumulations will occur on the roads. My best guess would be 1 to 3 inches of snow, some sleet, and a little bit of freezing rain. Keep in mind forecasting snow totals is tricky when we are bouncing back and forth between snow and ice.

Friday afternoon or for sure by Saturday morning we should warm up to begin the melting process. It’s mid February, so the snow and ice won’t stick around super long, but for the two days it’s here, it will effect your life to a degree.

Happy Tuesday and stay safe out there. I leave you with a map of the regional temperatures as of 7AM this morning. Brrrrrrr!!!!!