Category: Salem Area Forecast

Winter 2020/2021 Outlook

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, Weather Year 2020/20212 Comments

Salem had a toasty high of 85° today!! The next several days are going to be much warmer than normal with highs in the mid 80s as we end September and begin October. I imagine everyone will be doing their best to enjoy the nice weather because we all know our wet season is just around the corner…

Since fall is here, even if it doesn’t totally feel like it, I figured it could be both fun and a good time to share a few thoughts on this upcoming winter. I’ve never done something quite like this before and to be honest some years, like last year, are more of a crapshoot; however, this year we are expecting a moderate La Nina which gives us a few extra hints as to what type of weather we are likely to see this winter.

For this discussion I analyzed 11 La Nina winters which had similar strength to the one being predicted this year. I’ll also be referring to the months of November through March which I consider to be our primary storm/winter season. There are some years where the storm season really gets going during mid October, and this could be one of those years, but the statistics I looked at and the focus of this discussion are centered on the months of Nov – Mar. This first chart shows those 11 La Nina winters and how they fared in terms of precipitation for Salem, whether or not there was a valley flooding event, and Salem’s total snowfall in inches during each of those winters.

* = Estimated snowfall total as official records are not available those years.

1.) Perhaps the number one thing that stands out is how wet La Nina winters typically are in the valley. 9 of the 11 La Ninas surveyed gave Salem above normal precip. That lends pretty solid confidence we will end up wetter than normal. As is the case every winter, Salem should still see a number of dry days mixed in. The key thing to remember is that overall statistics favor a wetter and rainier than normal winter for the Willamette Valley.

2.) Not shown on the chart, but odds also favor an above normal or at “worse” an average mountain snowpack this year which is great news for skiers/snowboarders and our water supply. One caveat is there have been a few La Nina winters which got off to a slow start in the snow department meaning Nov and Dec weren’t necessarily real good in terms of mountain snow; however, the vast majority of those winters still saw an excellent second half to the ski season as snow ramped up nicely in Jan and Feb of those years.

3.) This next one is not good news. Keep in mind I’m strictly talking odds here by looking at what happened in past La Ninas, but for this one the odds are not in our favor. Of the 11 years surveyed, 8 saw a notable (either minor or major) valley flooding event. The percentage of La Nina years with significant flooding events is high when compared to non La Nina winters. Below is a list of historic flood events on the Willamette River in Salem. This list only contains floods occurring since flood control dams were built in the 50s. It’s no coincidence that 10 of Salem’s 13 worse floods occurred in La Nina winters, and while it’s far from certain, one would be wise to keep this in the back of their mind, especially if you live in a flood or mudslide prone region as the odds of seeing some sort of flooding event this year are higher than normal….

Data courtesy of NOAA
https://water.weather.gov/

4.) Perhaps the most anticipated question is whether or not it’s going to snow here in the valley. Well, 11 of the 11 La Nina winters I reviewed in detail produced at least some snow here in Salem. Woo hoo! Breaking it down further, 6 of those years produced enough snow for sledding or building a snowman in (highlighted in purple on the chart). The other 5 only saw minor accumulations of a slushy inch or two. Take it for what you want, but odds are high we at least get an inch or so of snow, and odds are higher than normal we see a respectable/decent snowstorm at some point this winter. Far from a slam dunk as I like to say, and we are talking statistics, but it does provide some extra hope for us snow lovers. Definitely better odds than last winter! 🙂

So yes, may the odds be ever in our favor, and with how 2020 has gone I really do mean that. A quick recap for you:

1.) Odds favor a wetter/stormier than normal winter overall.

2.) Odds favor a good mountain snowpack and good year for ski resorts.

3.) Increased odds for a significant valley flooding event.

4.) Higher than normal odds for some valley snow.

For reference, here are all La Nina winters (regardless of their strength) since 1960. Again, the pattern is the same. Almost all of them ended up wetter than normal, many of the years had flooding here in the valley, the majority of these years had a good mountain snowpack, and all of them produced at least some measurable snow (albeit some years it was no more than an inch or two) down to the valley floor.

The odds definitely favor a more active winter, but only time will tell, so be ready for anything, and then I guess just sit back and see what happens…

Late Season Warmth

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

Salem’s extended forecast

Any questions?? Lol, it’s a very straightforward forecast this week. Mostly sunny every single day now through at least next weekend, maybe even longer. Areas of morning clouds will show up some days, especially during the second half of the week, but even those days will end up with sunny and warm afternoons.

Highs generally 80 – 85° all week long – a good 10 degrees above normal.

Lows around 50 – 54° each night will make for chilly evenings & mornings, but as chilly as that may feel to us, these temps will also be several degrees above normal. For reference, Salem’s average low temps this coming week are around 45 – 46°.

After the soaking rains we saw this past week, the fires will be slow to spread despite the dry weather. A little bit of smoke may drift back towards the valley, but if it does it will be minor, and nothing even remotely close to what we saw earlier this month.

Enjoy the nice sunny weather!!!

Rainy and Breezy

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We have a good old fashioned fall storm out there today. Breezy south winds have been going all day and the rain won’t be too far behind. I imagine the rain will get going here in Salem between 2 and 4pm. Expect the better part of an inch of rain to fall with this storm along with more gusty winds.

Thursday’s weather will feature showers and thundershowers. Thundershowers are most likely north of Salem and along the coast; although anyone could see a few brief downpours or small hail with the “regular” showers tomorrow.

Showers stick around for both Friday & Saturday with Friday being the wetter of the two days.

I’m still feeling confident Sunday will kick off a nice stretch of late season sunny and warm weather with highs next week reaching well into the 70s & 80s. The best part about it is we will actually be able to enjoy the nice warm weather this go around since most of the wildfires around here will be on life support thanks to both the coming rainfall and the continued hard work of the firefighters who are still out there working on these fires.

The Oregon Coast

The largest waves of the season will arrive today with waves heights of 20 – 25 feet expected this afternoon through Friday. Not exactly the biggest waves ever, but definitely the largest so far this season. Will make for some fun storm watching weather should you find yourself at the Oregon coast.

The nice weather next week won’t be limited to the valley. Warm, sunny weather is expected along the coast with Tue – Thu being the nicest days and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds may still be breezy at times next week with the warm weather, but let’s be honest, when are they not breezy out there? 😉

Storm pics and the week ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, Weather Year 2019/2020Leave a comment

It’s been a few day now, but those were some wild storms the other night, wouldn’t you agree? Many locations around Salem picked up over an inch of rain that Thursday night. I picked up 1.18″ at our south Salem home. Much of that falling within 30 min!! The other exciting part of those storms was the amount of lightning produced. Here are a few images I caught on video.

Looking forward we have a couple of nice dry days before rains move back into the region on Wed. Here’s your forecast for the week ahead:

Highlights

1.) Overall fairly high confidence with the forecast this week. Wed may initially start off dry, but it won’t last long as a steady rain and breezy winds move in. In fact Wednesday is looking like quite the soaking with anywhere from half an inch to an inch of rain expected. More good news for the fires continuing to burn up in the Cascades.

2.) Thu & Fri: Showers and sunbreaks. Chance for a thundershower Thursday, but this will be a more typical brief downpour, maybe a rumble of thunder, and small hail type of thundershower. Nothing like the storms we just had.

3.) Sat: An isolated shower or two, but overall mostly dry.

4.) Looking further out it appears September will end on a dry & warm note with Sunday through at least Wednesday of the following week looking sunny, mild, and dry!

Rain, Thunderstorms, and, smoke

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The big picture has transpired more or less according to plan with one main issue. The sharp cutoff in precip I mentioned in previous forecasts ended up occurring a little further west than anticipated leaving the entire Willamette Valley (not just the east side) basically dry these past two days with only a few sprinkles here and there. The coast and a number of locations in the Coast Range still received decent rainfall with both Tillamook and Astoria picking up close to half an inch of rain so far this week.

Today we stay dry until this evening when thunderstorms and some fairly heavy rain showers finally move in across all parts of the Willamette Valley. My best guess is showers and storms arrive between 7 and 9pm. It could be quite the lightning show for some of you tonight. Thankfully these storms will bring plenty of heavy rain with them, so lightning shouldn’t pose too much of a threat in term of starting new fires. Strong gusty winds are also possible with these storms.

Heavy rain showers continue on Friday. The showers on Friday will be slow to move, so if you get caught under one you can expect a good soaking. Slight chance of thunder and lightning tomorrow as well.

Here are projected rainfall totals now through Saturday evening, and while it’s possible some of us won’t get quite this much rainfall, the big pictures is everyone’s getting rain, and a bit of it. Nice to see a decent soaking in the forecast! Feel free to click image for a larger view.

We will see a dramatic improvement in air quality tonight and Friday with these heavy rain showers and storms. In fact we have a decent chance at seeing regular blue skies over Salem, in between showers of course, tomorrow and even more so on Saturday assuming we can clear out of the clouds enough. Our smoky saga is finally almost over…

Busy week ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

Well, we have another busy week in store as we slowly clear out of this smoky mess, plus we have a chance for thunderstorms this Thu & Fri. First things first, with no significant winds in the forecast in the near future it’s looking like the smoke will be with us to some extent now until Thursday. 😦 It should improve a little Mon night and Tue, especially in the locations that get some good rain showers, but a change in the winds aloft (up high) will likely bring more smoke back into our region on Wed…

My thinking hasn’t changed in terms of who gets rain Mon – Wed and who doesn’t. Showers will generally be confined to locations along & west of I-5. Many places in the Santiam Canyon and eastern Willamette Valley will not see much in the way of rain until Thu. Below is the latest total precip forecast map which goes through Wednesday.

The coast & Coast Range get around an inch of rain and Salem receives nearly half an inch while locations like Detroit, Mill City, Lebanon, and Sweet Home see little more than a few sprinkles. This next map shows estimated precipitation totals through Saturday night. The second half of the week is definitely looking much wetter for those eastern locations.

Extended Forecast

The key thing to remember is that for Mon – Wed the potential for rain increases quite a bit as one heads further west, and it won’t be until Thursday when rain showers finally move through the entire region giving everyone a decent soaking.

The other highlight for this week is the chance for thunderstorms both Thu & Fri. Fortunately there should be plenty of rain (maybe some hail as well) with these storms limiting any new fire threats from lightning.

Hang in there and stay healthy…

Sept 12th update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

What was suppose to be an enjoyable week of late warm summer weather with highs in the 90s instead turned into a smokey and fiery hell leaving communities devastated along with a number of popular recreational sites, terrible air quality, and highs nearly twenty degrees cooler than what was originally forecasted due to thick smoke.

If you are looking for relief from the smoke it is still coming, very very slowly…… Our clearing out process will pick up a little on Sunday, at least up high. Down here in the valley we are essentially stuck in an inversion pattern still keeping the smokey air trapped near the surface until probably Tue when showers and rain finally move in. Of course with all the smoke and ash particles floating around in the sky this has the potential to be some of the grossest rain that has ever fallen here in western Oregon, so don’t go singing in the rain when it does arrive, at least not at first.

The rain will take its sweet time moving inland next week. The maps below show forecasted precipitation totals through Tuesday night and give a decent idea of what parts of the state will see rain first. In general places northwest of Portland, Salem, and down to Florence will receive decent rainfall Mon night and Tue while locations like Sweet home, Springfield, and much of the Santiam Canyon will sadly stay mostly dry with just a few sprinkles and isolated light showers until Thu. Of course if this storm comes onshore even a little bit further than expected then we would be looking at showers over those areas on Tuesday as well. Something we can be praying for.

Those maps depict pretty clearly a sharp drop off in precip/rainfall as one moves southeast. Fortunately by Thu afternoon and Fri all locations west of the Cascades will be seeing rain as showers become widespread across the region. Showers continue on Saturday and possibly even through next Sunday.