Category: Salem Area Forecast

November 2020

On By bryanweatherIn 2020, Archives, Monthly reports, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

I hope you all are enjoying the holiday season! Even with everything going on there is still much to be thankful for and much to enjoy. Just some quick words of encouragement from your local weatherman. 😉 Okay, moving on we have several dry or mostly dry days ahead with no sign of any big storms or arctic blasts, so with not much going on I figured it was a good time to recap November.

Highlights

November 2020 was not real exciting in terms of weather events. We had several days of wind & rain including a peak wind gust of 43mph on the 13th, but very few really wet storm systems. Perhaps the biggest highlight of the month was the good start to the mountain snow season up in the Cascades. It’s been several years since we have seen an early start like this. As of Monday, Hoodoo had 34 inches of snow which is well above normal for the end of November!! The final thing worth noting from the month would be the higher than normal amount of dry days (both foggy and sunny) which helped to keep our precipitation for the month slightly below normal.

Temperature

Warmest high temp was 68°  November 4th   

Coldest high temp was 39°  November 27th  

Warmest low temp was 58°  November 4th

Coldest low temp was 24°  November 9th

8 days with lows at or below freezing.

It’s been awhile, but we finally had a cooler than normal month.  November 2020 was 1.1° below normal.

Salem had 19 days with measurable precipitation with most of the action taking place mid month, but as mentioned, not very many wet storm systems at all. The wettest day of the month was the 13th with 1.21” of rain.   We ended November with 5.89″ of precip which is 90% of our average for the month, so yet another drier than average month.

Looking ahead

December is typically our wettest month of the year and one of our coldest. We will see what happens, but early indications are hinting at a cooler than normal month. As far as snow goes, December has not exactly been a big snow producer around here as of late. In fact, over the past decade February has actually been our snowiest month on average. Curious to see if that stays the same this year or if we get some good snowfall during December or January instead. Anyway, check out this graph of December snowfall going back to 2004.

Really only 2 years with any decent snowfall on this chart. I’m sure a lot of you remember 2008 when it snowed and snowed and snowed leading up to Christmas.  More recently in 2016 we had a nice December snowstorm, but overall December snowfall has not been all that common lately.  With that said, our chances seem to increase slightly during a La Nina.  Take it for what its’ worth, but I’m thinking we see some snow this December.  Just my gut feeling…   😉

Happy December!!!

Foggy days

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

Right on track the fog showed up today and kept temperatures down across the valley. We made it to a sizzling 41° for our high. We cool back down tonight. Saturday will likely be a near repeat. No reason to expect the sun will magically break through the fog this time of year – at least down in the valley.

Up in the Cascades it’s a whole different story in a pattern like this. Lots of sunshine over the fresh coating of snow. Check out these beautiful images from Hood and Hoodoo today!

The next 7 days

Fairly high confidence in the forecast for the next several days. Thursday (Thanksgiving) should be mostly dry, but there is a slight chance for an afternoon shower or two. Lower confidence for that day.

In case you need a refresher, I enjoy using different colors to represent the confidence I have in the forecast. For example a difficult forecast with a high probability of changing is going to be highlighted yellow while green highlighting indicates high confidence in my forecast staying on track.

The Cascades will have a little bit of snow Sun & Mon, but overall not too bad for traveling. Tue night through Thanksgiving morning will be pretty snowy with another 10 to 15 inches of new snow for the ski resorts.

Have a great weekend!!!!

Midweek update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

Another stormy day out there today. Winds have not been too crazy with gusts no higher than 30 -35mph, but plenty of rain. As I write this we have a band of rain rolling through with a peak of sun making for a pretty neat to scene. 🙂

Wednesday & Thursday: Showers & sunbreaks, breezy at times with brief downpours. Maybe even a thundershower or two with some small hail mixed in. Wednesday will be the wetter of the two days.

The Cascades

Snow levels fall down below pass level late tonight. 10 – 15 inches of new snow for ski resorts by the time Friday rolls around. Since I don’t have my own graphics department lol, I borrowed this from Mark Nelson at Fox 12 Oregon. You can see just how healthy the snowpack is compared to the past 10 years for this early in the season.

Friday & Saturday both look dry, so a nice two day break from the rain before another system rolls in on Sunday. I should note there will be a fair amount of fog and clouds on these two dry days – not exactly a super sunny period, but dry nevertheless.

Thanksgiving week is the week after (already!!!) and it’s looking stormy and wet with more mountain snow & valley rain.

According to plan

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Fox 12 Weather provided this nice graphic showing peak wind gusts from our storm Friday morning.

My forecast of 35 – 50mph turned fairly well and in the tricky world of forecasting I will jot this down as a win. 🙂

Storm number two is rolling in now. The rest of today is going to be very wet with steady rain increasing through the day and turning heavy tonight. Expect well over an inch of rain to fall by this time tomorrow. Southerly winds pick up tonight as well with gusts 30 – 40mph.

The Next 7 Days

1.) Sunday still looks like the calmest day with scattered showers, sunbreaks, and fairly light winds.

2.) Monday: Rainy through the early afternoon. Mild and breezy. Temps will likely top out around 60°.

3.) Tuesday: Still watching the potential for another round of strong winds and heavy rain, but lots still up in the air with this system. Very stormy along the coast.

4.) Wed & Thu: Showers, breezy, and lots of mountain snow. Assuming businesses are allowed to operate, ski resorts should have one of the best starts to the ski season in years with close to 30 inches of snow currently being reported at Hoodoo and more on the way later this week. There will be some melting Sun – Tue with the milder weather, but overall it looks like we are off on the right track in the snowpack department!!

Have a fantastic weekend!

Stormy weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

There is a lot going on in the weather department, so let’s jump right in.

1.) Tonight/Friday, windy with heavy rain at times transitioning to showers during the afternoon. Maybe even a late afternoon thundershower. Gusts should top out around 40 – 50mph which is not super “wild”; however, that’s stronger than any storm we saw last winter. Expect a few power outages.

  • Rainfall will end up over an inch by the time Saturday rolls around which means localized areas of minor flooding is possible.
  • This chart shows peak wind gusts in knots at 4AM Friday morning. The 47 over Salem translates to 54mph which I think is a little overdone, but we will see. Either way it’s going to be quite windy tonight and Friday morning.

2.) A second (not as intense) round of rain and wind moves in Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Gusts with this storm will be closer to 25 – 35mph.

3.) Sunday will be a sort of in between day with both a few showers and a few sunbreaks at times. Sunday night – Monday more rain & wind. This third storm contains a lot of moisture. We could easily see well over an inch during this timeframe. Will monitor this storm also as time gets closer.

4.) Yet another strong storm is possible Tuesday & Wednesday bringing the potential for more heavy rain and strong winds.

5.) Over 4 inches of rain are forecasted by next Thursday morning. Even if this is overdoing the rainfall by an inch we still have an extremely wet stretch of days ahead.

THE CASCADES

Very poor travel weather starting late tonight through Saturday night with heavy snow and high winds. Great snowpack building weather though with 18 – 24+ inches of new snow falling, but terrible if you wish to travel over the passes. Much better conditions on Sun & Mon.

THE COAST

  • Along the Oregon coast expect lots of big waves, like 40 plus foot waves at times, powerful winds, and high surf to be the rule of thumb over the next week or so. Add in some heavy rain (3 – 6+ inches over the next several days) with the high surf, and coastal flooding is going to be an issue in places.
  • Sunday looks to be the calmest day, and even that day will prove to be showery and breezy at times, but with a few glorious sunbreaks scattered in between.
  • Wind gusts will also be higher at the coast, as is usual, gusting 60 to 70mph with this first system. Gusts above 50 are likely with some of next week’s storms too.

Like I said, lots going on. Okay, happy Thursday and stay safe!!

Cool and wet

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

Well, we kicked off November on a warm note with highs in the 60s the first 5 days of the month, but things have cooled off dramatically and will stay cool through the week. This morning was particularly cold with lows 24 – 27° across the mid valley. Brrrrrrrrr!!!!

Salem’s 7 day forecast

HIGHLIGHTS

1.) Tue – Thu: Showers possible each day with some good mountain snow (12 – 20 inches by Friday morning). Tue in particular will have fairly vigorous showers with hail possible. The driest day this week is going to be Wed with only an isolated shower or two.

2.) Watching Friday/Saturday for the development of a powerful wind & rain storm. Keep both eyes open for updates as this system has the potential to bring some very stormy weather to our region.

3.) Sunday and much of next week look wet. Rain or showers almost every single day, windy at times too with additional rounds of mountain snow.

Warm weather & rain moving in…

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s lunchtime which means I have just enough time to squeeze in a quick update lol. 😉

The past several days have been quite warm for November. Yesterday was 15 degrees above normal with a low of 58 and a high of 68!! Look at how warm the state as a whole was. These were temps as of 3PM yesterday.

Very warm, in fact record breaking warmth for a number of cities. Today is still fairly mild, but rain is approaching and this storm will usher in much cooler weather.

As of 11:40AM you can see the rain approaching from the NW.

Link to the radar (updated every ten minutes courtesy of Fox 12 News) http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_radarnwor.jpg

Bottom line: it’s going to be a rainy couple of days.

Happy Thursday and stay safe!