It just doesn’t get better than this around here in March. Mostly sunny skies, highs this afternoon in the low 60s, and totally dry. I hope all of you are able to get out and enjoy the nice weather today!
Extended forecast
1.) Sunday and Monday we have a brief, but fairly major cool down on the way. Rain moves in Sunday afternoon transitioning into scattered showers on Monday. Snow levels will drop down to near 1000′ early Monday morning.
2.) A fair amount of sunbreaks on Monday with a scattered showers increasing during the afternoon hours.
3.) Tue & Wed: Dry and mostly sunny.
4.) Rain and showers move back into the area on Thursday and at this point look to continue through most of next weekend.
Checking out the radar this afternoon you can see a few scattered showers around with lots of dry breaks in between. Showers here and there, but the majority of the day has been dry. Expect basically the same exact thing both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Extended Forecast
Highlights
Thursday – Saturday:Totally Dry. Cool nights and mornings with lows dipping to freezing each night, but mild and sunny afternoons.
Sunday: A powerful and dynamic cold front moves in lowering snow levels close to the valley floor. I’ll keep an eye on this storm, but for now plan on valley rain with snow in the mountains above 1000′. This system will leave behind some very chilly showers on Monday with highs struggling to reach 50°.
The Cascades
This time of year the roads generally stay clear of snow and ice during the daylight hours and this week is no exception. The road cam at the top of Santiam Pass shows this well. Temps below freezing with occasional snow falling; however, the road surfaces themselves are above freezing thanks to the increased energy output of the March sun.
I expect several more inches of new snow now through Wednesday night keeping a fresh layer of snow up there.
Sunny and mild Thursday – Saturday, but big time snowfall coming for Sunday and Monday with the cold storm system posed to move in.
Typical March weather around here with some nice sunny days this past week and highs that reached the upper 50s and even low 60s (61 degrees back on March 1st). But….. It’s March and it’s Oregon which means cooler and wetter weather is never far away and that really is how it goes around here.
This time of year I feel like the number one thing people ask me and want to know most is what days are going to be dry for playing sports, jogging, planning an outdoor social events (more common these days), hiking, or just working on outdoor projects around the yard, so I’ll do my very best to answer that. 😉
The rest of today through Tuesday: Showers at times every day; however, I don’t see any sign of an all day washout meaning you can expect a few sunbreaks or at least breaks and pauses in the showers each day. Not reliably dry days, but far from being complete losses either haha! The simulated radar image below for 10AM Sunday shows this well with scattered showers roaming around the northern Willamette Valley for that time.
Looking for dry weather then head east of the mountains. Much drier over there!
This pattern typically favors heavier showers during the afternoon hours, and that will go for every day now through Tuesday. Sunday in particular could see heavier showers though with hail and maybe a little bit of thunder or lightning for some of you.
Snow levels will be quite low during this period of time. I wouldn’t be surprised if people living up in the Coast Range or Cascade foothills above about 1000′ saw a dusting to an inch of snow one of these mornings. Here is the forecasted snowfall through Tuesday night showing snow in the Coast Range and the Cascades down to fairly low levels.
Monday stands the best chance of being mostly dry. Not 100% dry, but I’m thinking right here in the valley we should only see a couple of showers at most. Both the Coast Range and the Cascades will see a fair amount of showers still.
Wed – Fri: Nice and dry for the back half of our work week with highs returning to the upper 50s- maybe even 60 again. If you are wanting completely dry weather then these are the days for you.
Looking further ahead, another cool system drops down (unfortunately) just in time for next weekend….
February 2021 is coming to a close and March is just around the corner. Here’s how the next 7 days are looking:
HIGHLIGHTS
1.) Friday: Cool and breezy with rain and hail showers, sunbreaks.
2.) Saturday morning through Sunday night will be dry. I can’t help but feel like someone was praying really hard for a dry weekend, because that is exactly what we have on tap. Temperatures are going to be chilly in the morning hours; however, the late February sun should help keep things more reasonable during the day.
3.) I’m calling for rain for Monday with breezy winds of 20 to 30mph – a stormy day. Some of the weather models have this day totally dry which is why I’m not as confident about this forecast, but for now plan on it being a wet day.
4.) Tue – Fri should be dry. Watching for the chance of rain on Friday, but other than that, most of the work week will be dry and mostly sunny! I wouldn’t be surprised if some locations in the valley hit 60 this week either Thursday or Friday. Yes, spring will be trying to make an appearance this week. 🙂
The Cascades
Up in the Cascades snow levels will hover around 1500 – 2000′ with tons of fresh snow up there over the next 36 hours. This chart is showing 1 to 2 feet of new snow now through Saturday afternoon depending on elevation. This is in addition to the several inches of snow which fell all day long today. It’s going to be quite the snowstorm up in the mountains as winds will be gusting 25 to 35mph creating near whiteout conditions at times on Friday. Not a good time to travel up there. Saturday and Sunday will be much better, especially after around noon on Saturday.
It has been a LONG several days. Internet and electricity have been scarce and hard to come by, and after putting out so many forecasts last week it was nice being able to just relax and take a little break now that the weather has slowed down again. I’ll be writing a more detailed post with a look back at what ended up being a truly historic and extremely destructive ice storm later this week. My initial thoughts are that the forecast ended up working out pretty much as anticipated with only a few minor changes/surprises. As the storm got closer and closer it became evident a major ice storm was coming, and it was absolutely shocking to see it fully materialize the way it did!!
Looking ahead we have fairly “normal” February weather on tap with periods of rain, showers, occasional sunbreaks, and lots of mountain snow. Temperatures will be running a few degrees below normal now through Saturday, but not enough to bring wintry weather back into Salem for now…
Wednesday will be the driest day of the next 7. Saturday could end up being mostly dry as well. Expect rain and showers Thursday and Friday.
There you have it!! Stay safe out there and I’ll catch you all in a day or two with a look back at our historic ice storm plus a more detailed extended forecast.
We have just under 2 hours of okay diving conditions before things turn bad and roads freeze over this evening. I want to emphasize again how this “second” storm will have much more of an impact than the one last night. Salem never rose above freezing today and we won’t. In fact we will probably cool off 2 – 4 degrees this evening back into the upper 20s. Brrrrr!!!!!! Here’s another temp update as of 4PM. Notice the bitterly cold air east of the Cascades and the sharp contrast in temperature from Salem to Roseburg where it’s a balmy 53 degrees!! It’s always amazing to see just how powerful the gorge can be in bringing cold air into the northern Willamette Valley.
Freezing rain has been slowly accumulating on elevated surfaces and objects all day long as temps have not gone above 30. There’s a lot of freezing rain coming with this next storm system and I expect roads to freeze up quickly as soon as the sun goes down. I’m thinking half an inch to almost an inch of freezing rain will fall between now and noon Saturday which is going to take a major toll on trees and powerlines. I fully expect lot of power outages and downed trees tonight and tomorrow. Below is an estimated radar image for 10PM this evening. The dark pink and purple coloring around Salem indicates heavy freezing rain and with temps in the upper 20s. This is definitely going to end up as a top tier/historic February ice storm for Salem!
Freezing rain should extend down to Corvallis and Albany, but I’m thinking those locations may warm up a little bit sooner on Saturday which could keep them from seeing as much ice as Salem.
Snow could still mix in at times here in Salem the way it did last night in areas west and north of downtown, but overall freezing rain will be the main precip type.
Roughly Wilsonville northward is still on track for some heavy snowfall. There will be areas of Portland that end up buried under a foot plus of new snow by this time tomorrow! This is shaping up to be a truly epic February snow and ice storm for our region!!
Salem should rise above freezing Saturday afternoon at which point we should stay above freezing and begin to melt/thaw out.
Portland may not thaw out real well until Monday, especially parts of the metro area that are located close to the gorge.
Okay, I think I covered everything. Be safe out there!!
From what I can see out there we still don’t have any major surprises going on yet which as a forecaster is always a relief lol. There is a nice layer of ice on basically everything outside here in Salem. Trees, plants, and cars are all coated in a glaze of ice. Our major roadways are looking okay; however, most of our sideroads and parking lots still have a lot of slick spots of ice on them. Be very careful out there and drive or walk as if there could be ice even if it looks just wet. Here are regional temps as of 8AM:
You can very clearly see the influence of the Columbia River Gorge with very cold air moving west right into the northern Willamette Valley. Roads should thaw out slowly and driving conditions shouldn’t be all that bad on the main roads thanks to our limited “heating” of the day, but don’t be fooled into thinking we are all done. This second storm moving in is juicy and will be packing quite a punch.Unlike last night where the freezing over process was slow, main roads tonight will freeze over very quickly between 2 and 5PM depending on temps and how heavy the precip falls this afternoon. It’s worth pointing out that some of the side roads around town may not even truly thaw out before this next round of freezing rain and snow moves in.
Freezing rain will again be the dominate precip type later today through Saturday morning with sleet and a little bit of snow mixing in at times. As mentioned, this storm has a lot of precipitation with it, so the potential is there for some serious ice accumulations. Tonight and Saturday morning will be the “main event” of this whole wintry weather ordeal. This is also the time frame that some of you may lose power due to what could end up being heavy freezing rain.
Portland is still on track for a major snowstorm later today through Saturday morning. I’m thinking 6 to 14 inches up there depending on location. A crazy big snowstorm for them!
In theory Salem should begin to thaw out Saturday afternoon – at least some. This is subject to change of course, but as for right now that is the plan.
Alrighty, there you have it! Plan on main roads being okay for the middle of the day, but turning bad quickly late this afternoon/early this evening, and plan on power outages tonight with lots more freezing rain tonight and tomorrow with varying amounts of snow and sleet mixed in.
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