Category: Salem Area Forecast

Winter 2020/2021 Review

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, Weather Year 2020/2021Leave a comment

Winter is done and it’s time to see how my outlook faired when compared to reality. This is the full meal deal with lots of info, so make sure you’re sitting comfortably for this one lol 🙂 . If you’re looking for a forecast just know that we have a few showers coming in tonight through Thursday morning and then one more cool and showery day on Saturday before we dry out and warm up setting the stage for a very mild and sunny stretch of weather next week.

WINTER 2020/2021 REVIEW

Back in October it appeared as though we had a moderate La Nina on tap and I laid out several things that were more likely to occur during a La Nina winter based off of similar winters in the past. In case you wish to travel back in time to see what my thoughts and predictions were you can check out my 2020/2021 winter outlook here: https://bryanweatheralert.com/2020/09/28/winter-2020-2021-outlook/

1.) Wetter than normal: (OKAY). Nov and Dec were both slightly below normal, Jan was fairly wet, Feb came in a little above normal, but March finished out well below average. When all was said and done, Salem ended up right around average in the precip category. I stated in my winter outlook that a dry winter was very unlikely, and that part held true. This winter was definitely not a dry one, but to call it a wetter than normal winter would be a little bit of a stretch.

2.) Above normal mountain snow: (GOOD). We started the season off strong with above normal snowfall in November, but a warm and slightly drier than normal December brought the snowpack below normal by the time we rolled into January. Fortunately a few well timed storms in December kept enough snow on the ground through Christmas break to keep most of the ski areas operational – something we did not have the previous December.

The snowpack didn’t really increase much though until the end of January when we saw our brief snow event, and again with the colder weather during mid February. The cooler and wetter weather in February brought tons of snowfall to the mountains and pushed us above normal again. Occasional cool systems through the month of March maintained a very healthy snowpack as we headed into spring. With all things considered I call this forecast a hit with the snowpack being at or above normal for the majority of the winter.

3.) Flooding: This was not as much a forecast as it was more of a warning or heads up. I’m more than happy to have not had a big flood this year – something I think everyone could agree on… Flooding events are significantly more common during La Nina winters and that’s just a fact. We had no flooding on the Willamette River this year; however, we did have some localized flooding on several of our smaller rivers and streams in the region with a wet system in mid December, and then on a larger scale again in the first half of January when the valley saw 2 inches of rain in 24 hours with a storm on the 12th. Odds favor we see another La Nina next winter which means I would again sound the alarm for the potential for major flooding as this seems to be a trademark of La Nina winters around here.

4.) Snowfall. (GOOD). If you recall, I mentioned how the odds of seeing at least a little bit of snow increases with La Nina winters. Sure enough we saw some with our surprise snow event on January 26th which dumped a quick 1 to 4 inches of snow (depending on location) across Salem, and of course we also had our historic ice storm in February. So while the snow was short lived right here in Salem, we still picked up both snow and ice this year reinforcing the statement that La Nina winters tend to deliver at least some snow or ice. The official snowfall total I’m going with is 2.5″ and 1.25″ of freezing rain.

As far as wind goes, right here in Salem we had no major windstorms (widespread 50mph+ gusts). That said, the region did experience several minor to moderate wind events which brought scattered power outages to the Willamette Valley each time with the January 12th storm being the strongest windstorm

Next I have a graphic with the biggest highlights from this past winter.

The major ice storm is hands down the number one highlight. You can find my recap of that storm right here: https://bryanweatheralert.com/2021/02/23/ice-storm-2021-recap/

This second graphic shows how each month stacked up compared to average in both temperature and precipitation. I also included total rainfall per month, snowfall, and ice accumulation. Kind of a nice and neat way of seeing how each month faired.

Having both December and January on the much warmer side of things is unusual for a La Nina. As far as the precip went, the wet January and February balanced out pretty well the three drier months leaving us right at average for the whole period. Looking ahead, early indications are La Nina will return in the fall. This is represented on the chart below which shows how most first year La Nina winters are usually followed by a second La Nina winter.

If next winter is indeed a La Nina, I would put my money on a more active year with a decent chance of a wetter than normal winter. I would also expect at least some valley snow again, a higher than usual chance for major flooding, an increased risk of a significant windstorm, and a healthy mountain snowpack. But let’s not get too excited or ahead of ourselves lol. I enjoy every season and the weather each one has to offer. I’m looking forward to some beautiful sunny spring weather – maybe a few thunderstorms mixed in (if we are lucky), and then hopefully a nice and warm, but wildfire free summer. 🙂

A special guest post and quick look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond1 Comment

I have a very special guest post today coming from a friend who lives all the way in New York City! She and her friend have written up a nice forecast over there highlighting what one can expect should you find yourself in that unique part of the world. 😉 Our local Salem forecast is tagged along at the bottom. ENJOY!!!!

Forecast for New York City

Saturday – a wonderful day, use best you can. Sunday…it’s for the ducks 

Cold front will start rolling into NYC on Saturday around 4am and will calm the windy conditions seen on Friday. Clear skies with a temperature in the high fifties to low 60’s. Winds ranging from 12-25 MPH. Nice day that Saturday 😉 We recommend using it to get outside and catching a glimpse of the rare and exotic green parrots atop the Greenwood Cemetery Arch.

If you happen to forget your sunscreen on Saturday and end up getting a ring-tail lemur sunburn on your ankles, don’t fret, because Sunday’s weather will be keeping you inside. Early Sunday morning, starting at 2am, nice conditions will start to diminish, clouds will be low, winds will be light. Heavy rain will commence at 8am with winds hitting full tilt at 11am. Wind gusts will pick up to 40 MPH. As Sunday progresses, clouds will thicken like a split-pea soup (which apparently no establishment in NYC carries despite our repeated pleas) This will cause poor visibility and rain with the temperature in the low 50’s. Fog is not out of the question folks. Rainy conditions and visibility will improve during the evening, but wind will remain, so no skirts. 

Monday the skies will be back to their old ways- a cool 55, partly cloudy, no winds. The perfect start to a week locked inside working. Looking ahead, Tuesday will be your last chance before rain picks up mid-week with the sun coming back to shine on all your beautiful, bountiful Easter eggs. 

Salem Area Forecast

Looks like NYC has a similar weather forecast to us in that today is going to be a beautiful day with highs in mid 60s and lots of sunshine.

Sunday starts off nice; however, we also make a switch to weather fit only for ducks 😉 as things go downhill in the afternoon with a very potent cold front moving in. Winds will be strong at times gusting up to 35mph and rain will be quite heavy at times. If you have outdoor plans I would aim to have them done by 1 or 2PM on Sunday with rain moving in by 4PM at the latest.

Temps drop dramatically Sunday evening with this powerful cold front. Snow levels Monday morning will be down to 1000′. Lots of snow up in the Cascades. I’m thinking like 6 – 10 new inches with this storm. Very poor driving conditions up there Sunday night through Monday with gusty winds blowing that heavy snow around a bit. Back here in the valley we will be left with a few scattered showers on Monday before drying out for much of next week with highs returning to the 60s Tue – Thu or even next Friday.

Whether you are in the Big Apple or the Cherry City 😉 enjoy the nice sunny weather while it lasts and a special thanks to my friend and her roommate for writing up their gust post!

A quick weekend and Spring Break update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

This week has gone pretty much as planned with showers today and continuing through tomorrow. Here’s a quick look at what you can expect now through Sunday.

  • Today & Saturday will both be active days around here. Sunbreaks, lot of available moisture, and very cold air aloft (up in the atmosphere) will combine to give us a threat of a few thundershowers, downpours, and hail. Some of the showers could contain a lot of hail, so be careful if you are caught out on the road when one of these showers hits. This satellite pic from around 10:45AM shows a nice swirl of clouds and bands of heavy showers rotating towards Oregon. This will be our weather pattern through Saturday evening.
  • Snow levels are around 2000 – 2500′ with 5 to 10 inches of new snow falling in the Cascades through Saturday night. Expect snowy passes Monday, Wednesday and Thursday of Spring break.
  • Sunday will be the driest day this weekend with rain moving in sometime after roughly 3PM.

Spring Break

What everyone wants to know is which days are going to be nice and dry for outdoor activities, and which days are going to be wet. Fortunately, this guy right here has you covered! 😉

1.) Our mostly wet days will be Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. These days will all have dry times mixed in between the showers, but overall expect these days to be wet.

2.) Now for the dry days! Tuesday, Friday, and next Saturday, & Sunday all look nice and dry!!! 🙂 🙂 So we should finally see a completely dry weekend around here!

There you have it. Stay safe, try to stay dry, and have fun out there!

Storm update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

Quick update on this Sunday afternoon.

The forecast is still on track with a cold front moving through right now. Salem recorded a temp of 50° at 1PM and that will end up being our high for the day as colder air is already moving in from the northwest. You can see where temps stand as of 3PM with the coast being colder than central Oregon at the moment.

Snow levels drop down to 1000′ – maybe a little bit lower on the east side of the valley tonight as even colder air works its way down from the NW. Scenarios like this occasionally lead to “lower than expected” snow levels in east valley & foothill locations. Any lower than expected snowfall will be very short lived and minor, but don’t be shocked if you see a few slushy flakes mixed in tonight with the showers.

Monday should be a mostly dry day with just a few afternoon showers of rain, hail, and maybe some graupel. Graupel is really nothing more than a mixture of snow and ice pellets. Expect some of the showers to be rather heavy.

Nice dry and sunny weather looks like a lock for Tuesday and Wednesday before rain returns on Thursday through much of next weekend.

The Cascades

Passes turn snowy within the next hour and will stay fairly snowy through Monday morning with 3 to 6 inches of new snow. Santiam Pass has cooled 6 degrees within the last hour!

By Monday afternoon roads should be bare/wet as the increased energy from the March sun warms pavement up nicely this time of year.

Have a fantastic rest of your Sunday!!

Beautiful early spring weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast1 Comment

It just doesn’t get better than this around here in March. Mostly sunny skies, highs this afternoon in the low 60s, and totally dry. I hope all of you are able to get out and enjoy the nice weather today!

Extended forecast

1.) Sunday and Monday we have a brief, but fairly major cool down on the way. Rain moves in Sunday afternoon transitioning into scattered showers on Monday. Snow levels will drop down to near 1000′ early Monday morning.

2.) A fair amount of sunbreaks on Monday with a scattered showers increasing during the afternoon hours.

3.) Tue & Wed: Dry and mostly sunny.

4.) Rain and showers move back into the area on Thursday and at this point look to continue through most of next weekend.

Enjoy our sunny afternoon!

Typical March weather….

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and BeyondLeave a comment

Checking out the radar this afternoon you can see a few scattered showers around with lots of dry breaks in between. Showers here and there, but the majority of the day has been dry. Expect basically the same exact thing both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Extended Forecast

Highlights

Thursday – Saturday: Totally Dry. Cool nights and mornings with lows dipping to freezing each night, but mild and sunny afternoons.

Sunday: A powerful and dynamic cold front moves in lowering snow levels close to the valley floor. I’ll keep an eye on this storm, but for now plan on valley rain with snow in the mountains above 1000′. This system will leave behind some very chilly showers on Monday with highs struggling to reach 50°.

The Cascades

This time of year the roads generally stay clear of snow and ice during the daylight hours and this week is no exception. The road cam at the top of Santiam Pass shows this well. Temps below freezing with occasional snow falling; however, the road surfaces themselves are above freezing thanks to the increased energy output of the March sun.

I expect several more inches of new snow now through Wednesday night keeping a fresh layer of snow up there.

Sunny and mild Thursday – Saturday, but big time snowfall coming for Sunday and Monday with the cold storm system posed to move in.

There you have it! Take care and stay safe.

Spring and right back to winter again

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

Typical March weather around here with some nice sunny days this past week and highs that reached the upper 50s and even low 60s (61 degrees back on March 1st). But….. It’s March and it’s Oregon which means cooler and wetter weather is never far away and that really is how it goes around here.

This time of year I feel like the number one thing people ask me and want to know most is what days are going to be dry for playing sports, jogging, planning an outdoor social events (more common these days), hiking, or just working on outdoor projects around the yard, so I’ll do my very best to answer that. 😉

  • The rest of today through Tuesday: Showers at times every day; however, I don’t see any sign of an all day washout meaning you can expect a few sunbreaks or at least breaks and pauses in the showers each day. Not reliably dry days, but far from being complete losses either haha! The simulated radar image below for 10AM Sunday shows this well with scattered showers roaming around the northern Willamette Valley for that time.
Looking for dry weather then head east of the mountains. Much drier over there!
  • This pattern typically favors heavier showers during the afternoon hours, and that will go for every day now through Tuesday. Sunday in particular could see heavier showers though with hail and maybe a little bit of thunder or lightning for some of you.
  • Snow levels will be quite low during this period of time. I wouldn’t be surprised if people living up in the Coast Range or Cascade foothills above about 1000′ saw a dusting to an inch of snow one of these mornings. Here is the forecasted snowfall through Tuesday night showing snow in the Coast Range and the Cascades down to fairly low levels.
  • Monday stands the best chance of being mostly dry. Not 100% dry, but I’m thinking right here in the valley we should only see a couple of showers at most. Both the Coast Range and the Cascades will see a fair amount of showers still.
  • Wed – Fri: Nice and dry for the back half of our work week with highs returning to the upper 50s- maybe even 60 again. If you are wanting completely dry weather then these are the days for you.
  • Looking further ahead, another cool system drops down (unfortunately) just in time for next weekend…. :/