Tag: travel

Snow and ice storm

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Less then 12 hours from now I anticipate Salem will be a winter wonderland with a coating of snow and maybe some freezing rain and sleet mixed in too. This is the perfect setup for snow and ice here in the valley. A cold northerly breeze is pumping in modified arctic air and very dry air too. This means our temperatures will drop even colder once the precip arrives very early Thursday morning. The process of the moisture taking or absorbing the heat out of the atmosphere is known as evaporational cooling.

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Precipitation begins around 4 to 7am Thursday morning. Expect widespread snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Sleet and freezing rain could mix in. Snowy and wintry weather lasts through around 10 or 11am.

Between 11 and 4pm Thursday not much will be going on. Additional showers of snow or freezing rain are possible, but nothing long lasting or widespread. It’s also likely that we “warm” up above freezing for a few hours in the middle of the afternoon due to the increased sun angle and lack of precipitation falling. Should precip continue heavier than expected than the whole brief period of melting goes out the window… Expect poor travel conditions even if we get some melting!

Thursday night through about 10 or 11am Friday morning will feature another surge of moisture. This second wave has potential to really drop the hammer either in the form of heavy freezing rain, heavy snow, or a mix of both.

Bottom line is we have a solid snow and ice storm on tap beginning very early Thursday morning and lasting through the first half of Friday. Too soon to make the call for road conditions Friday night (Valentine’s Day).

More details

So I’m quite confident we have a snow and ice storm on the way, and I’m confident we will be more than cold enough for it to stick and accumulate on all surfaces. What is still up in the air is how much of precipitation falls all together, and how much falls as snow versus freezing rain. Check out how much precip this particular model has falling through Friday 8am.

That could be a whole lot of snow, or a scary amount of freezing rain, or a mixture of both, but then we have other weather models showing not quite as much precip. This next image below also is forecasting total precip, but it cuts the total literally in half. Sure it still gives Salem a hefty total good for 5 to 7 inches of snow, but that’s only half of what that first image advertised.

This next image shows that second batch of moisture directly over the Willamette Valley Thursday night into early Friday morning. The “SLE” is the Salem Airport. You can see how we are right on the edge of the freezing rain and sleet (pink coloring) and the heavy snow (blue coloring).

The important message is that we have a snow and ice storm on hand. How much do we get and is it more ice or more snow is a question we just can’t know this time around until it happens. Be prepared for icy roads, snowy conditions, and possible power outages. Truth is that around here it only takes an inch or two of snow to mess things up on the road anyway, so what’s an extra half foot between friends right? 🙂

Stay safe and enjoy the snow and ice!

Chilly dry weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We are now entering into what will be a long stretch of dry weather. It may not feel dry with the cold damp fog hanging over our heads, but no additional rain is expected between now and at least next Wednesday (December 4th). Excellent news for people traveling by road! Our dry spell will be marked with fog that lasts for long periods of the day, or in some cases the entire day, occasional sunbreaks, and chilly temperatures.

Expect widespread frost possible each morning over these next several days with many of us seeing our first hard freeze of the year at some point this week. These strong ridge setups in the dead of winter are tricky because if the fog holds then temperatures can also hold steady throughout the day, but if the airmass manages to dry out a little then we could see a wider rang of temperatures.

For now I’m going with lows of 28 to 33 degrees – again depending on the extent of fog, and highs in the low 40s. Today will actually probably be our “mildest” day of the week as we are just entering into this inversion pattern. Our temperature as of 10:45AM is already a “balmy” 43°.

Remember, in these inversion setups both the coast and the Cascades are often times clear and sunny. Not warm, but escaping the fog can be nice. Here’s a snapshot of Newport Bay courtesy of Koin News and the Oregon Coast Aquarium.

Next we have a beautiful sunny picture from Hoodoo earlier this morning. Brilliant sunshine up above the inversion, and with 34 inches of snow at their base they are all set to open this Friday per their website. A great start to the year!!

God created a pretty incredible world, and I hope we can both take care of it and enjoy it. Stay safe, have fun, enjoy the people around you, and happy Thanksgiving!!

Wet week in review and a look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn 2024, 2024/2025, Archives, Extra!!, Monthly reports, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

As promised, this week has been very winter like with lots of rain, chilly temperatures, and at times, gusty winds. Below is a county map of Oregon showing total rainfall over the past 7 days. Most of the Willamette Valley has picked up around 3 inches of rain since last Saturday!

The other big change over the past week has been the well advertised increase in mountain snow. Hoodoo had a 15 inch base early this afternoon with 4 to 8 inches of new snow expected this evening through Sunday morning.

Looking ahead

Tonight: Showers increasing through the evening. Lows tonight in the mid 40s.

Sunday: Mostly dry with some a little bit of sun, and only a slight chance of a shower. Highs into the upper 50s.

Monday: Rain returns as a quick moving cold front sweeps in from the northwest. PM sunbreaks and showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday (Election Day): Highs around 57° with a fair amount of sunbreaks, and a slight chance for a brief shower or two.

Wed – Fri: Lots of fog. This time of year can be incredibly foggy, especially after having so much rain. Expect widespread fog each of these three days. Lows will likely bottom out in the 35 to 38° range and highs 49 to near 50 degrees assuming we get some afternoon sunbreaks. Lows could dip to freezing for areas that receive a little more clearing at night.

Next weekend: Rain appears likely, but obviously subject to change being several days out.

No big storms on the horizon at this time, and nothing real out of the ordinary for early November. No signs of any big warm rainstorms to wash away our early snowpack either as temperatures remain a little cooler than normal in the coming days.

October 2024

October may have ended on a cooler note, but overall it was quite mild being 2.8 degrees warmer than normal. As far as precipitation goes, we finished the month above average with a total of 3.8″ to kick off our new water year. Average for October is 3.47″. Over 2 inches of that rain fell during the final week of the month.

Have a great and safe rest of your weekend!