Tag: snow

Bad news

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been several days since I last posted. Work, school, and life keep me busy, plus, the weather is really not doing anything exciting. Sadly, things have trended drier and drier since my last forecast. I understand many people enjoy the sunny weather; however, we need rain and mountain snow, and if the dry weather continues to dominate our weather, then we could be looking at some severe drought conditions this summer. Yes, we still have all of February, March, & April, so I’m not too concerned yet, but the ski resorts are missing out on valuable income with each passing day, and could really use more snow asap.

The current snow water equivalent map looks like this. Basically, this is a map showing the percentage of water in the current snowpack compared to where we should be at this time of year.

Well below average across the entire state. The drought monitor on the other hand does not look nearly as bad right now, and that is largely due to the big rainstorms we saw back in December.

Forecast details

1.) Dry weather continues through at least next Tuesday or Wednesday.

2.) Nights remain very cold. Salem was 24 degrees this morning. Brrrr! Lows continue to dip well into the 20s. A reinforcing shot of cool, but very dry air moves south from Canada Friday. Unfortunately, it will be a dry airmass, so no mountain snow. Just more cold clear nights and sunny days.

3.) Next chance for rain doesn’t arrive until at least next Monday or Tuesday. Rain chances increase quite a bit after the middle of next week as indicated by this chart below:

You can see the dramatic increase in members showing rainfall around the 28th and 29th. Let’s hope those don’t dry out, and let’s hope they end up being cooler systems for some mountain snow.

One final thought.

Navigating truth and reality versus scary, clickbait, or agenda driven biased information can be tricky online. This is not a statement as to how much climate change is driven by the actions of humans versus natural cycles. It’s simply a statement to help inform and keep my wonderful viewers in touch with the reality side of news and information. This type of dry, snowless winter has happened before, and will happen again. I have some “modern” examples, but there are even records dating back to the early years of Europeans arriving in Oregon of very dry winters “randomly” occurring.

In more modern times, the winter of 1976/1977 stands as the driest on record for many western Oregon locations. Less than an inch of rain fell for the entire month of January that winter, and Salem recorded 68 completely dry days between November through January. Imagine being a ski resort operator that winter or a farmer relying on ground water or seasonal streams to water crops.

These very dry winters happen, and living through them sucks, especially for farmers and people in the snow recreation business, but they do happen. The winter of 2000/2001 was another extremely dry year as well, and Salem saw two snowless winters in the early 2000s (2002/2003 and 2004/2005).

Will we get a February snow event? Maybe, but it is also possible we finally see a completely snowless winter. Portland has been setting a record for most winters in a row with measurable snow for the past few years now. As of last winter, they are at 10 years in a row with measurable snowfall! The previous record was just 7 years.

So yes, things currently look bad, and there’s no guarantee they turn around this season, but such things have happened before, and as of right now, we are not in an unprecedented situation.

If you are wealthy, have lots of extra time on your hands, and love snow, then book a ticket to the North Carolina or Virginia. A massive snow and ice storm is expected over there this coming weekend. Many locations will pick up well over a foot of snow with just this one storm.

Stay safe, and enjoy the beautiful weather the best you can!

Looking towards Thanksgiving

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

Things have been real mellow around here, and up until the past couple of days, it’s been quite mild too. Salem achieved a record high of 65° this past Saturday. The only thing that has really changed from this week compared to the previous week are the cooler temperatures. We hit the 60 degree mark eight days this month, but since that record high on the 15th, we have been in a cooling trend. Salem finally got down to 32° this morning for the first time this fall, and we never broke out of the 40s. Inversion season is definitely here!

The main message is that there are still no big storms on our horizon. No flooding scenarios, strong winds, chances for snow etc. Just more of the same: a little rain at times, some fog, and a few sunbreaks. The riveting details are below:

Tonight: Light rain switching over to scattered showers overnight. Chilly with temps in the mid to low 40s. Brrrrr!

THU: A few showers early. Dry afternoon and evening. High of 54°.

FRI & SAT: Dry. Fog seems very likely both days with a few sunbreaks possible during the afternoons. Highs in the upper 40s.

SUN & MON: Some rain both days, but nothing big or major that would cause significant issues for our day to day lives.

Looking ahead to the days leading up to Thanksgiving, and Thanksgiving itself, I continue to see no big storms. Maybe some mountain snow to deal with, but will have more updates again as we get closer to the holiday. The main message is that this rather calm weather pattern appears to continue for another week.

Warm Novembers

We have had a very warm November so far running almost 4 degrees above normal! Check out this map showing temperature departures from average so far this November.

Very warm in the west, and cooler along the east coast. Well I’m here to tell you that warm Novembers do not correlate to warm winters. In fact, maybe quite the opposite. Below I’ve charted temperature departure maps from four different years. All four of these years had similar La Nina conditions to what we have now, and all four of these years had very mild November temperatures – also very similar to what we have seen so far this November.

Looks similar right? Very warm out west and cooler along the east coast. Well, what happened after each of those warm Novembers? This next chart shows temperature departures for December through February from all four of those same years.

As you can see, the rest of those winters actually ended up on the cooler side. In some cases significant cooldowns occurred which lead to valley snowfall. How many of you remember December 2008 when it snowed several times in the weeks leading up to Christmas? Or December 2016 when it snowed several inches leading to an early Christmas break. Point is, a warm November does not equal a warm winter. If you could only see some of the comments in the weather forums I’m in then you would be laughing yourself to sleep. People claiming winter is over, others saying things like it’s difficult to imagine even the ski resorts getting enough snow to open this winter, and other super ridiculous nonsense.

We could end up with a dry and mild winter (has happened before, and it will happen again), but I’m not real worried considering it’s only the 19th of November, and again, the data I just shared indicates that warm Novembers do not necessarily lead to warm winters. Let’s see what happens…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and stay safe out there!

The next nine days

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Can you believe it’s almost Friday and the end of October? Time to look ahead at the forecast for this weekend (many of you want to know), plus the forecast for next week, and at the very end I have a fun little weather history tidbit for you.

I’ve combed through the weather models searching and searching and I cannot find a single completely dry 24 hour period after Friday through at least the next ten days! Eventually we’ll see dry weather again, it always comes back, but it’s very clear we are entering full on rainy season mode here in western Oregon. We have a lot of rainy, grey, and damp November weather on tap with only very short respites here and there.

Extended forecast

Highlights

Friday: The first half of the evening looks dry . Late evening activities could get rained on. Rain will begin earlier in the evening the further northwest you go. So the Portland metro could see a rainier Halloween evening than Salem. Locations south and east of Salem could easily stay dry well through midnight. If you’re wondering why apps keep on changing their forecasts for this Friday it’s because it just doesn’t get much closer than this. The estimated radar image for 8pm Friday night shows a band of rain just to our northwest. Move that sucker 25 miles closer and we have a very wet evening. See how tricky that is?

Saturday: Wet with rain much of the day.

Sunday: This is it! It could be mostly dry during the daylight hours Sunday, so take advantage of it! 🙂

Mon – Tue: Wet at times, but nothing real wild.

Wednesday: This storm looks a little more impactful with heavier rain likely, and possibly some gusty winds.

Thursday & Friday: It seems like another pretty wet storm system will move in at some point during these two days bringing steady rain and possibly more gusty winds.

Impacts

None of the storms this coming week appear capable of producing really strong winds. Instead plan on typical run of the mill 30 to 40mph gusts. Should this change, then I would of course do my very best to inform you. Right now the biggest issue weather will have on your day to day life (other than getting soaking wet outside) is the likelihood of clogged/backed up drains creating ponding on roadways and in some parking lots. As far as mountain snow goes, well I don’t see very much at all over the next 8 days. These storms will be on the mild side. This means wet and rainy Cascade passes.

Some fun weather facts for you all. I looked back into the history and record books, and I found out that in 1935 it snowed 5 inches officially at the Salem Airport on Halloween making it the earliest snowfall in Salem on record.

As far as the single snowiest day in Salem’s recorded history goes, it appears the record was set in 1937 when 25 inches fell between January 31st and February 1st. There are several documents (journals, weather reports etc.) indicating that up to 33+ inches fell in parts of south Salem in just those two days alone! Check out this photo from downtown Salem after the storm. Keep in mind this all happened after 6 to 12 inches of snow had already fallen during the week prior.

And this next photo was taken on State Street in downtown Salem after the storm.

What would happen if that took place today?!?!? I suppose every winter brings with it new opportunities for something wild to happen, and since Friday marks the earliest snowfall on record here, I figured it’s time to start keeping an eye out for snow…. Or, we could end up with a snowless winter which happens far more often than big snowstorms around here. :/ Time will tell…

Okay, stay safe out there, remind your kids to be respectful and mindful of people, property, and cars when running around from house to house in search of candy (sounds a little weird when you think about it lol), and of course, have fun! 🙂

A very dry spring with rain on the way

On By bryanweatherIn 2024/2025, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a long time since I posted. The weather has generally been extremely uneventful, plus I’ve been busier than usual with work and side projects (including the garden). Regardless, I figured it was time for an update.

The forecast

Wed & Thu: Onshore flow increases pushing in a stronger marine layer along with a very weak front. This will result in highs in the low to mid 70s. Expect plentiful AM clouds with PM sun breaks. We could see a sprinkle Wednesday morning; otherwise, these two days will remain dry.

Fri: PM showers. A cold atmosphere up above will result in the possibility of thundershowers too. Some of the downpours could be quite heavy. Highs right around 60°.

Sat: Additional showers and thundershowers with a more steady rain likely during the late afternoon and evening hours. This will produce a widespread soaking rain for areas west of the Cascades. Downpours will have potential to be heavy. Highs will struggle to reach 60°

Sun: Showers wrap up with much of the day being dry. Just keep in mind that showers could still take place during the day on Sunday. Highs into the lower 70s again.

Mon – Wed: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Highs around 80° each day. Lows will start out chilly right around 50 to 53°.

Rain totals look to range from half an inch to just over an inch of rain here in the Willamette Valley. This will bring much needed precipitation to our region!

Aside from the first week of April, we have been unusually dry this spring. The few “rainy” days we have seen the past 8 weeks have not produced more than a third of an inch on any given day. The map below shows percent of normal precipitation locations have picked up between April 18th and June 17th. Many valley locations are running at a mere 15 to 25% of average.

We are running slightly better precipitation wise than the dry and hot spring of 2021. That year brought our most intense heatwave ever with temperatures soaring above 110° throughout the Willamette Valley. That was an awful experience. Luckily, no signs of hot weather.

As far as temperature goes, May 2025 went down in the history books as only being 0.2° above normal. For all practical purposes that’s considered average. At the moment, June is running 3.5 degrees above normal, a special thanks to the hot spell last weekend. That number will fall dramatically by this time next week due to the much cooler weather moving in.

For reference, I added a chart showing total rainfall for Salem during the month of May going back to 1997.

There is no clear trend here. The only notable thing I could see was the tendency for totals to range more drastically over the past several years, but in the grand scheme of things, several years is hardly a trend.

We’ll see where we end up for rainfall in June. For now enjoy the continued dry weather, and keep in mind that Friday through Sunday will be generally wet.

The Cascades

Planning on hiking or camping up high? Well, plan on some snowfall Friday night through Saturday night. Snow levels will dip down low enough for the volcano summits/peaks to pick up several inches of snow. Timberline, the tops of the sisters, Jefferson Park, Crater Lake, and any other peaks above roughly 5500 feet could see snow this weekend. Keep this in mind. Spots along the PCT (Pacific Crest Trail) could also see snowfall impacting hikers and backpackers this weekend. By Sunday afternoon the summer sun returns and the snow up there will quickly begin melting off again.

Winter wonderland!!

On By bryanweatherIn 2024/2025, Archives, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Woo hoo! Snow has been widespread across the entire mid Willamette Valley! It’s clear now that we have either hit the upper end of my forecasted snow totals or surpassed them for this point in our winter storm with more on the way tonight through Friday morning.

At the moment we are currently in between the rounds of heavier precip, and the “heating of the day” has helped major roads clear up a bit, but conditions go down hill tonight as temperatures drop and as round #2 moves in, so don’t get stuck out there thinking all is well.

What’s ahead?

More snow tonight with freezing rain and sleet mixing in. This second wave of moisture still looks quite “juicy” lol with a solid half inch of melted down precip (or more) with round #2. I currently expect at least a little bit of freezing rain or sleet to mix in tonight before changing back over to all snow; however, models have already been trying to push the cold air out of here too quickly, and so for the moment I’m leaning towards more snow and not as much in the way of ice.

Either way, winds continue to breeze out of the north, and temperatures will be plenty cold enough that whatever falls from the clouds will be frozen or will freeze on contact (freezing rain). My best guess is an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow with some freezing rain. If this storm continues to overperform I could see us surpassing those totals too! There are always little twists and turns with our winter storms here…

Snow will come to an end Friday morning, but with the colder than expected temperatures and increased snowfall, we should plan on road conditions improving very SLOWLY through the day on Friday with side roads remaining in rough shape.

Refreezing Friday night with clearing skies will lead to more issues again on side roads and less traveled streets through early Saturday morning before finally thawing out the rest of the way.

One additional thing I want to mention is how the Salem Airport temperature sensor has been regularly reporting a bit warmer than surrounding stations. Even warmer than weather observation spots in downtown and east along Lancaster Drive. Mark Nelson posted this graphic from the other day showing just how off it’s been and that he has tracked this for a couple years now. He does excellent work for Fox 12 and I appreciate his attention to details and to locations outside the PDX metro if you ever need a good forecaster to watch on TV.

So if you’re curious why your weather sensor at home has you in the upper 20s, but your weather app says otherwise, well now you know! Even right now you can see it is way off compared to the rest of the city and local area sitting at 34° while the rest of us are in the upper 20s to around 30°.

Stay safe, and keep on enjoying the snowy and wintry weather!! 🙂

Snow and ice storm

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Less then 12 hours from now I anticipate Salem will be a winter wonderland with a coating of snow and maybe some freezing rain and sleet mixed in too. This is the perfect setup for snow and ice here in the valley. A cold northerly breeze is pumping in modified arctic air and very dry air too. This means our temperatures will drop even colder once the precip arrives very early Thursday morning. The process of the moisture taking or absorbing the heat out of the atmosphere is known as evaporational cooling.

Main message

Precipitation begins around 4 to 7am Thursday morning. Expect widespread snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Sleet and freezing rain could mix in. Snowy and wintry weather lasts through around 10 or 11am.

Between 11 and 4pm Thursday not much will be going on. Additional showers of snow or freezing rain are possible, but nothing long lasting or widespread. It’s also likely that we “warm” up above freezing for a few hours in the middle of the afternoon due to the increased sun angle and lack of precipitation falling. Should precip continue heavier than expected than the whole brief period of melting goes out the window… Expect poor travel conditions even if we get some melting!

Thursday night through about 10 or 11am Friday morning will feature another surge of moisture. This second wave has potential to really drop the hammer either in the form of heavy freezing rain, heavy snow, or a mix of both.

Bottom line is we have a solid snow and ice storm on tap beginning very early Thursday morning and lasting through the first half of Friday. Too soon to make the call for road conditions Friday night (Valentine’s Day).

More details

So I’m quite confident we have a snow and ice storm on the way, and I’m confident we will be more than cold enough for it to stick and accumulate on all surfaces. What is still up in the air is how much of precipitation falls all together, and how much falls as snow versus freezing rain. Check out how much precip this particular model has falling through Friday 8am.

That could be a whole lot of snow, or a scary amount of freezing rain, or a mixture of both, but then we have other weather models showing not quite as much precip. This next image below also is forecasting total precip, but it cuts the total literally in half. Sure it still gives Salem a hefty total good for 5 to 7 inches of snow, but that’s only half of what that first image advertised.

This next image shows that second batch of moisture directly over the Willamette Valley Thursday night into early Friday morning. The “SLE” is the Salem Airport. You can see how we are right on the edge of the freezing rain and sleet (pink coloring) and the heavy snow (blue coloring).

The important message is that we have a snow and ice storm on hand. How much do we get and is it more ice or more snow is a question we just can’t know this time around until it happens. Be prepared for icy roads, snowy conditions, and possible power outages. Truth is that around here it only takes an inch or two of snow to mess things up on the road anyway, so what’s an extra half foot between friends right? 🙂

Stay safe and enjoy the snow and ice!

Winter storm Thursday and Friday

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

This will be a very short post, but an important one. I’m confident a winter storm will impact our region beginning Thursday morning through at least Friday morning. I’ll have a nice post filled with more details and shiny graphics tomorrow. For now, plan on weather disrupting your daily routines beginning Thursday morning with rough travel conditions lasting through at least the first half of Friday. This means snowy and icy roads during this period of time – even during the daytime hours on Thursday.

The situation this time is much more simple compared to last week which is why I have such high confidence two days out. We are not dealing with isolated showers, the timing does not have to fall in the middle of the night, and we don’t have to worry about southerly winds. We will be plenty cold, and moisture will be abundant with chilly breezes continuing out of the north for the duration of this event. The perfect recipe for wintry weather.

How much precip will fall, and what form of frozen precip will we experience are the two big questions still up in the air. At the moment it looks like the Salem area will see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain through the course of the storm. Temperatures will be below freezing all day Thursday through at least Friday morning, so accumulations will occur on the roads. My best guess would be 1 to 3 inches of snow, some sleet, and a little bit of freezing rain. Keep in mind forecasting snow totals is tricky when we are bouncing back and forth between snow and ice.

Friday afternoon or for sure by Saturday morning we should warm up to begin the melting process. It’s mid February, so the snow and ice won’t stick around super long, but for the two days it’s here, it will effect your life to a degree.

Happy Tuesday and stay safe out there. I leave you with a map of the regional temperatures as of 7AM this morning. Brrrrrrr!!!!!