Tag: nature

Snow and ice storm

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Less then 12 hours from now I anticipate Salem will be a winter wonderland with a coating of snow and maybe some freezing rain and sleet mixed in too. This is the perfect setup for snow and ice here in the valley. A cold northerly breeze is pumping in modified arctic air and very dry air too. This means our temperatures will drop even colder once the precip arrives very early Thursday morning. The process of the moisture taking or absorbing the heat out of the atmosphere is known as evaporational cooling.

Main message

Precipitation begins around 4 to 7am Thursday morning. Expect widespread snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Sleet and freezing rain could mix in. Snowy and wintry weather lasts through around 10 or 11am.

Between 11 and 4pm Thursday not much will be going on. Additional showers of snow or freezing rain are possible, but nothing long lasting or widespread. It’s also likely that we “warm” up above freezing for a few hours in the middle of the afternoon due to the increased sun angle and lack of precipitation falling. Should precip continue heavier than expected than the whole brief period of melting goes out the window… Expect poor travel conditions even if we get some melting!

Thursday night through about 10 or 11am Friday morning will feature another surge of moisture. This second wave has potential to really drop the hammer either in the form of heavy freezing rain, heavy snow, or a mix of both.

Bottom line is we have a solid snow and ice storm on tap beginning very early Thursday morning and lasting through the first half of Friday. Too soon to make the call for road conditions Friday night (Valentine’s Day).

More details

So I’m quite confident we have a snow and ice storm on the way, and I’m confident we will be more than cold enough for it to stick and accumulate on all surfaces. What is still up in the air is how much of precipitation falls all together, and how much falls as snow versus freezing rain. Check out how much precip this particular model has falling through Friday 8am.

That could be a whole lot of snow, or a scary amount of freezing rain, or a mixture of both, but then we have other weather models showing not quite as much precip. This next image below also is forecasting total precip, but it cuts the total literally in half. Sure it still gives Salem a hefty total good for 5 to 7 inches of snow, but that’s only half of what that first image advertised.

This next image shows that second batch of moisture directly over the Willamette Valley Thursday night into early Friday morning. The “SLE” is the Salem Airport. You can see how we are right on the edge of the freezing rain and sleet (pink coloring) and the heavy snow (blue coloring).

The important message is that we have a snow and ice storm on hand. How much do we get and is it more ice or more snow is a question we just can’t know this time around until it happens. Be prepared for icy roads, snowy conditions, and possible power outages. Truth is that around here it only takes an inch or two of snow to mess things up on the road anyway, so what’s an extra half foot between friends right? 🙂

Stay safe and enjoy the snow and ice!

Winter storm Thursday and Friday

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

This will be a very short post, but an important one. I’m confident a winter storm will impact our region beginning Thursday morning through at least Friday morning. I’ll have a nice post filled with more details and shiny graphics tomorrow. For now, plan on weather disrupting your daily routines beginning Thursday morning with rough travel conditions lasting through at least the first half of Friday. This means snowy and icy roads during this period of time – even during the daytime hours on Thursday.

The situation this time is much more simple compared to last week which is why I have such high confidence two days out. We are not dealing with isolated showers, the timing does not have to fall in the middle of the night, and we don’t have to worry about southerly winds. We will be plenty cold, and moisture will be abundant with chilly breezes continuing out of the north for the duration of this event. The perfect recipe for wintry weather.

How much precip will fall, and what form of frozen precip will we experience are the two big questions still up in the air. At the moment it looks like the Salem area will see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain through the course of the storm. Temperatures will be below freezing all day Thursday through at least Friday morning, so accumulations will occur on the roads. My best guess would be 1 to 3 inches of snow, some sleet, and a little bit of freezing rain. Keep in mind forecasting snow totals is tricky when we are bouncing back and forth between snow and ice.

Friday afternoon or for sure by Saturday morning we should warm up to begin the melting process. It’s mid February, so the snow and ice won’t stick around super long, but for the two days it’s here, it will effect your life to a degree.

Happy Tuesday and stay safe out there. I leave you with a map of the regional temperatures as of 7AM this morning. Brrrrrrr!!!!!

Icy roads tonight

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

This past Wednesday was an exciting day. I would guess that everyone at least saw snow in the air. It did not stick in most places, but some neighborhoods got a brief coating of white, and the higher hills around town received accumulating snow. These showery patterns with southerly winds are always so borderline. So many factors to consider which really can’t be forecasted very well far in advance. Had we been two degrees colder, or had the showers arrived earlier while it was still dark then we could have woken up to a snowy or more like slushy winter wonderland. We’ve seen it go both ways here. Overall I’m fairly happy with how the forecast has gone. Hopefully I’ve portrayed just how tricky forecasting snow with this particular setup really is.

The forecast

A few very isolated showers tonight through early Monday morning, and by isolated I mean extremely isolated, but it’s just enough to keep us from being totally dry. I greatly dislike when the weather does that lol… Because of the showers, we also have increased odds of icy streets or even a random (light) dusting of snow – especially in the higher hills. Watch out for icy roads the next few nights and mornings.

Monday – Wednesday

Count on it being cold, but mostly sunny and dry. Lows in the lower 20s by Wednesday morning. This part of the forecast feels pretty certain to me. Highs will gradually cool off each day under the influence of a NE breeze.

Mon: Low of 28°. High of 44°.

Tue: Low of 24°. High of 42°.

Wed: Low of 21°. High of 39°.

Looking ahead

This coming week has the potential to be even colder with a more classic setup for widespread snow or ice. The ingredients will be in place. Cold air, winds out of the north and east, and a low pressure approaching from the southwest. This exact setup is how we get our biggest snow and ice storms. Some examples of this setup in the past include last January, the ice storm just before Christmas 2022, the big ice storm we saw in February 2021, and the snowstorm we saw (for you old timers like me haha) way back in December 2016. These are all examples of this “classic setup.” No southerly winds, no scattered showers like we have seen this week. Just cold air and steady precip. Still not an easy forecast, but several of the trickiest factors are removed from the equation in this scenario.

The first factor yet to be determined is how deep the cold air will be. If the cold air is shallow, we end up with more sleet or freezing rain – something we have seen more often these past several years it seems. If the cold air is deeper then we have the potential for widespread snowfall. I like to share the graphic below to help illustrate this point.

The track of the low pressure next week will also determine the impact on us locally. Too far south and we stay dry and cold, too far north and we see all rain or freezing rain, but if it goes somewhere in the middle then we end up with a nice snowstorm. I’ve drawn a few lines on the map below. This map shows low pressure (storm centers) for Thursday morning. Ignore the lows to west of the slanted line as they are part of another storm system. I’ve placed a blue smiley face to mark western Oregon hehe. In a nutshell, lows to the north of the top horizontal line would generally give us either rain or a brief shot of freezing rain or snow before changing to rain. Lows to the south of the bottom line would for the most part leave us high and dry, and finally, the majority of the lows between the two horizontal lines would give us a snowstorm.

So you can see why making a call on how much snow, or if it will even snow is not really possible just yet. History tells me that by Monday evening I should have a much better idea of what to expect.

We do know that it will be cold for the next several days. Again, keep an eye out for icy roads and parking lots, and have a fun and safe rest of your weekend! I’ll be sure to keep you all in the loop once details become more ironed out.

Preparing for wintry weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Practical steps/most important info

Forecasting way out in time can be tricky, but it is very clear to me that we will be dealing with icy roads, snow, and cold at various times for the next few weeks. There are strong signals we will be in this wintry pattern for awhile. If you have snow tires and you think you would use them over the next few weeks then this weekend is the perfect time to put them on.

In the forecast below I’ve highlighted road conditions with red font, and important messages and snow totals in bold font.

If you don’t like driving in the snow or on icy roads, and you have a flexible schedule, then run your errands this weekend or else Mon & Tue afternoons. Plan on the nights and mornings being the worst for driving, and plan on slippery roads possibly all day long on Wed & Thu.

The current forecast for each individual day is just the best guess I can give with the information at hand. Don’t focus on details too much. Just keep in mind your travel plans and daily life could be effected by snow or icy roads pretty much each night and morning this week, and possibly all day long Wednesday and Thursday.

Details

Sunday: Anyone could wake up to a little snow. Yes, this will be our first shot as seeing snowfall. Wet snow, graupel, and rain are all likely with the heavier showers during the day. Roads could briefly become covered, but afternoon temperatures will melt things off. The vast majority of roads tomorrow should be fine. Chances for snowy roads always go up with elevation in this type of pattern. Expect a few sunbreaks at times during the day, but not as many as we have today. Estimated radar for Sunday morning around 8am does a good job at conveying the main message of scattered showers and snow showers.

Mon & Tue: A few snow showers are possible each morning. Some people will wake up to snow, some of us to ice, and some with mostly bare roads. Hard to pinpoint when we are dealing with showers. Snowy and icy roads should clear up by late morning each day. This means life should be able to go on as normal roughly 10am to 6pm each day. Nothing – 2 inches of snow possible each morning. Anything that falls out of the clouds during the daytime hours will be in the form of snow thanks to the cold atmosphere, but it’s much less likely to stick during the day unless you find yourself at a higher elevation.

Wed: More widespread snow showers likely. 1 – 4 inches of snow possible at any elevation and even during the middle of the day as colder air works it’s way south. Roads could be bad all day long Wednesday. Subject to changes still.

Thu: Back to sunbreaks & scattered snow showers. Another inch or two of snow is possible during this time frame, and colder temperatures will make it tough for roads to melt off.

Super Bowl weekend and the week after look cold. Way too far out for details, but strong signals that we remain in a wintry pattern with more snow opportunities likely to present themselves.

The maps below illustrate this quite well with cold anomalies centered over or very near to the pacific northwest this Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, and even all the way into Tuesday the 11th with no sign of the pattern really changing. This lends me higher than usual confidence that we will be dealing with wintry weather for quite some time…

At the moment it’s sunny at my house, so I might head outside for a bit. Stay safe and enjoy the wild weather as much as possible. 🙂

Wintry weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The forecast and weather the past almost 3 weeks has been incredibly stable.  I’ve personally enjoyed the sunny weather, but it’s all coming to an end.  Lots going on and much to cover, so let’s dive in!

Super short version

We have a rainy and breezy day for Friday. Saturday will be chilly with sunbreaks and showers. Sunday – Wednesday we maintain a shower and sunbreak pattern, but temperatures will be cold enough that snow could accumulate anywhere in the valley, and at times even along the coast. Accumulations are most likely between 6pm to 10am (during the nighttime and early morning hours). By the time we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures might be cold enough for snow to stick at anytime of the day. No major snow storms are currently being forecasted, but with cold air moving in and storms close by, things could easily change…

Details

Friday:  Rain and wind will greet us as we head out our doors Friday morning.  Classic northwest stormy weather.  Rainfall could be rather heavy at times, and winds will generally gust in the 20 to 30mph range, so not too wild.  Expect sunbreaks later in the day.  Cooler air begins to move in and our temperatures start dropping.

Saturday:  Showers and sunbreaks.  Accumulating snow should stay in the Coast Range and Cascade Range during this day. This estimated radar image actually portrays my thoughts very well. Notice blue (snow) staying in the our mountain ranges, and also notice the showery nature of the precip with some areas getting very little action.

In general, this type of scattered shower pattern is what we can expect through next Wednesday with the biggest difference being the gradual arrival of colder temps as time goes on.

Sunday & Monday:  Showers and sunbreaks.  Accumulating snow will be limited to the nighttime and morning hours, and only some of us will see snow due to the scattered nature of the showers. Because of those factors, there really is no way to pinpoint exactly who will score snow in this type of pattern. Afternoon temperatures rise to around 40 degrees each day.  Throw in a few sunbreaks and road conditions during the daytime hours should be good for normal activities here in the valley.

If this was regular shower pattern then nobody would notice if they got a few hundredths of an inch of rain versus a third of an inch. In this case it makes a huge difference between a few harmless flakes or a blanket of 3 inches of snow.

Tuesday & Wednesday:  Similar to Sunday and Monday except we will have a slightly colder airmass these days which means a heavy snow shower could briefly cover all surfaces (including roads) even during the middle of the day. Highs in the upper 30s and lows around 29/30°. For now I’m going with nothing to 2 inches of snow each night, and up to an inch possible during the daytime hours.

Thursday – Saturday:  A wide range of solutions are out there, but I can tell you with a fair amount of confidence that we stay cold with additional snow chances very much on the table. In fact, there are strong signals we stay in a colder pattern for the foreseeable future beyond next weekend.  Winter is making it’s comeback!

Hazards

Icy streets. Due to the widely scattered nature of the showers we are expecting, skies will have better chances at clearing out each night. This means icy streets for your neighborhood – even if you don’t get snow. Frozen water leftover from showers can cause just as many issues. As the week goes on and temperatures cool off even more, I expect road issues to last longer into the daytime hours. Just be extra careful on those paved surfaces in the coming days.

Things I’m watching for:

An increase in moisture would equal significant snow totals. This is totally in the realm of possibility with this specific setup. The chart below shows some hefty snowfall totals (legit snowstorms) mixed in there for Salem. At the moment such outcomes are in the minority, but things can change quickly.

On the other hand, should moisture trend to the drier side (also unlikely, but possible), then this time frame could end up being rather uneventful.

My best guess

Expect scattered snow accumulations of nothing to 2 inches both Sunday and Monday mornings with lows around 32 and highs around 40°. Remember, some of us will probably end up with nothing.

More widespread snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Still not guaranteed due to the showery nature of the pattern, but odds increase thanks to the colder temperatures. Highs in upper 30s. Lows 28 to 30°.

The mountains will of course see tons of snow. 2 to 3 feet of new snow between now and next Thursday for the Cascades, and at least several inches up in the Coast Range. Be prepared for snowy roads whether you are traveling east or west of the valley.

Stay safe and happy Friday! I’m sure I’ll have additional updates as often as time allows!

Wild weather update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a very rainy, and at times, windy week. The wind event Christmas night pretty much met expectations with most valley locations recording gusts between 45 and 50mph, and some locations reaching the 55mph mark. At the peak of the storm about 30,000 PGE customers were without power in Marion County.

Rainfall has also been fairly consistent and even heavy at times. Here are rainfall totals for the past 7 days.

Generally 3 to 4 inches in the Willamette Valley upwards of 7 to 12 inches of precipitation in both the Coast and Cascade Ranges. Ignore the locations showing no rainfall. Sure, there’s a rain shadow effect, but it’s not that severe. Technical issues are to blame for those spots.

Salem can expect an additional inch of rain now through Sunday. All this rain is adding up and taking a toll on local rivers. Below is a chart showing both observed and forecasted river heights for the Willamette River in Salem.

The Willamette is definitely running full, but it is forecasted to stop just short of causing any major issues or extensive road closures.

The Forecast

Steady rain returns overnight and lasts through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon will feature showers and downpours with a few sunbreaks mixed in. Winds will once again turn quite strong during the day tomorrow. Gusts 30 to 40mph are possible late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.

Snow will be heavy up in the Cascades with 12 to 18 inches of new snow falling above 4000′ tonight through Sunday night.

Monday: More sunbreaks, but scattered showers and downpours will show up from time to time.

Tue & Wed: Tuesday will be dry. Fog is likely Tuesday morning especially, but we should manage some decent sunbreaks during the afternoon. Rain moves in late Tuesday night right around midnight. So there are no guarantees your midnight street runs and fireworks will be completely dry. 😉

Thu – Sun: The rest of the week appears to stay on the wet side with periods of rain and frequent showers.

The rain Sunday could cause a few additional problems for some of you, but once we get through Sunday the threat for flooding will subside for the time being. There are no wind storms on the horizon either. Just regular Oregon rain as we ring in the new year.

Stay safe and enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Chilly dry weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We are now entering into what will be a long stretch of dry weather. It may not feel dry with the cold damp fog hanging over our heads, but no additional rain is expected between now and at least next Wednesday (December 4th). Excellent news for people traveling by road! Our dry spell will be marked with fog that lasts for long periods of the day, or in some cases the entire day, occasional sunbreaks, and chilly temperatures.

Expect widespread frost possible each morning over these next several days with many of us seeing our first hard freeze of the year at some point this week. These strong ridge setups in the dead of winter are tricky because if the fog holds then temperatures can also hold steady throughout the day, but if the airmass manages to dry out a little then we could see a wider rang of temperatures.

For now I’m going with lows of 28 to 33 degrees – again depending on the extent of fog, and highs in the low 40s. Today will actually probably be our “mildest” day of the week as we are just entering into this inversion pattern. Our temperature as of 10:45AM is already a “balmy” 43°.

Remember, in these inversion setups both the coast and the Cascades are often times clear and sunny. Not warm, but escaping the fog can be nice. Here’s a snapshot of Newport Bay courtesy of Koin News and the Oregon Coast Aquarium.

Next we have a beautiful sunny picture from Hoodoo earlier this morning. Brilliant sunshine up above the inversion, and with 34 inches of snow at their base they are all set to open this Friday per their website. A great start to the year!!

God created a pretty incredible world, and I hope we can both take care of it and enjoy it. Stay safe, have fun, enjoy the people around you, and happy Thanksgiving!!