Tag: hiking

Bad news

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been several days since I last posted. Work, school, and life keep me busy, plus, the weather is really not doing anything exciting. Sadly, things have trended drier and drier since my last forecast. I understand many people enjoy the sunny weather; however, we need rain and mountain snow, and if the dry weather continues to dominate our weather, then we could be looking at some severe drought conditions this summer. Yes, we still have all of February, March, & April, so I’m not too concerned yet, but the ski resorts are missing out on valuable income with each passing day, and could really use more snow asap.

The current snow water equivalent map looks like this. Basically, this is a map showing the percentage of water in the current snowpack compared to where we should be at this time of year.

Well below average across the entire state. The drought monitor on the other hand does not look nearly as bad right now, and that is largely due to the big rainstorms we saw back in December.

Forecast details

1.) Dry weather continues through at least next Tuesday or Wednesday.

2.) Nights remain very cold. Salem was 24 degrees this morning. Brrrr! Lows continue to dip well into the 20s. A reinforcing shot of cool, but very dry air moves south from Canada Friday. Unfortunately, it will be a dry airmass, so no mountain snow. Just more cold clear nights and sunny days.

3.) Next chance for rain doesn’t arrive until at least next Monday or Tuesday. Rain chances increase quite a bit after the middle of next week as indicated by this chart below:

You can see the dramatic increase in members showing rainfall around the 28th and 29th. Let’s hope those don’t dry out, and let’s hope they end up being cooler systems for some mountain snow.

One final thought.

Navigating truth and reality versus scary, clickbait, or agenda driven biased information can be tricky online. This is not a statement as to how much climate change is driven by the actions of humans versus natural cycles. It’s simply a statement to help inform and keep my wonderful viewers in touch with the reality side of news and information. This type of dry, snowless winter has happened before, and will happen again. I have some “modern” examples, but there are even records dating back to the early years of Europeans arriving in Oregon of very dry winters “randomly” occurring.

In more modern times, the winter of 1976/1977 stands as the driest on record for many western Oregon locations. Less than an inch of rain fell for the entire month of January that winter, and Salem recorded 68 completely dry days between November through January. Imagine being a ski resort operator that winter or a farmer relying on ground water or seasonal streams to water crops.

These very dry winters happen, and living through them sucks, especially for farmers and people in the snow recreation business, but they do happen. The winter of 2000/2001 was another extremely dry year as well, and Salem saw two snowless winters in the early 2000s (2002/2003 and 2004/2005).

Will we get a February snow event? Maybe, but it is also possible we finally see a completely snowless winter. Portland has been setting a record for most winters in a row with measurable snow for the past few years now. As of last winter, they are at 10 years in a row with measurable snowfall! The previous record was just 7 years.

So yes, things currently look bad, and there’s no guarantee they turn around this season, but such things have happened before, and as of right now, we are not in an unprecedented situation.

If you are wealthy, have lots of extra time on your hands, and love snow, then book a ticket to the North Carolina or Virginia. A massive snow and ice storm is expected over there this coming weekend. Many locations will pick up well over a foot of snow with just this one storm.

Stay safe, and enjoy the beautiful weather the best you can!

Heavy rains, flooding next week

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a busy day for me looking over flood maps, rain charts, and different forecasts. Needless to say, we have some very heavy rain on the way, and not only heavy, but prolonged too with some flooding looking very likely now. Details below:

The quick version

Typical rainy weather continues now through Monday, and by this I mean periods of rain or scattered showers. Some brief periods of moderate to heavy rain, but no threat for flooding during this time frame. Between now and Monday afternoon I expect around 1 – 1.5 inches of rain in total.

Monday night through Wednesday: Steady rain during the majority of both these days with frequent periods of heavier rain. Winds will be pretty gusty at times throughout this period too. I’m thinking gusts 35 to 40mph. Not real strong, but if soils are saturated, and they will be, I could see a few isolated instances of trees coming down here in the valley and along with those trees, some power lines. Please be prepared for some power outages next week.

Extended forecast

We are approaching the event and close enough to share some estimated rainfall totals. I’m thinking Salem easily sees over 2 inches between Tuesday and Wednesday alone, and this could be a rare time where we see upwards of 4 inches within a couple of days. Depending on which side of these totals we end up on, we could see some real serious localized flooding on the small creeks around town.

Remember, in situations like this conditions can vary greatly depending on location. My forecasts are typically centered around Salem, but generally can be used and are valid for locations like: Monmouth, Independence, Albany, Silverton, Wilsonville, Canby, and any locations nearby or in between. This next graphic shows my thoughts for this region for Monday – Wednesday.

This next graphic covers flood risk for local rivers. There are many more creeks and rivers around our region than I had time for, but this should give you a good idea of what to expect.

If you live near any sort of creek, river, flood basin etc. that is not listed, then you should be paying attention to water levels and hopefully you can sort of estimate what might happen based on the information I’ve provided.

For the most part, expect smaller creeks to rise quickly during the midst of our rainstorm next week, but those same creeks should fall shortly after the heaviest rains end. The mid sized streams and rivers take longer to rise to flood stage which is why most of those may not flood until late Tuesday night or Wednesday.

I still do not expect the Willamette River to flood. It will of course rise a lot, and I could see River Road heading out towards Independence closing (maybe), but there is just no snowpack to melt, and the Cascade reservoirs have a ton of storage capacity right now. Our biggest floods historically have always happened when we have a large snowpack present in the Cascades, and (typically) when the reservoirs are already closer to capacity. Those two factors are really going to save us from what could have been much worse flooding this time.

The coast and Coast Range

Stormy! Not necessarily super strong winds or huge waves, but the combination of the heavy rain, gusty winds, and higher than normal waves for several days straight will make for wild times along our coastline. Rain totals of 5 to 8 inches are likely over the next five days, wind gusts of 40 to 50mph Monday afternoon through Wednesday night, and at least some flooding is likely on most of the coastal rivers.

Phew! There’s a lot going on next week, and winter is still young, so I’ve created a Discord server with several “channels” on it. On Discord you will find a channel where you can share questions, comments, or your current weather conditions. There is a “photos” channel designed for easily sharing weather related photos. I’ve also added a couple of channels for linking these “Bryan Weather Alert” forecasts, and lastly, I added a channel which will be great for sharing quick, but important updates to the forecast! It should be a lot of fun, an easy place to finally share weather related photos together, and a great way to engage as a community a little.

Please feel free to join the Bryan Weather Alert community on this newly created Discord server! Bryan Weather Alerts on Discord

Take care, and stay safe out there! I’m certain I’ll have more updates in the next few days.

A weekend soaking and look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s a beautiful Thursday afternoon and temperatures are in the low 70s here in the mid Willamette Valley. I have a short update on our wet weather plus a look into next week and beyond below.

The forecast

Our wet weekend is still very much on track. This weekend’s showers and rain show up very nicely on this ensemble chart. Remember, time goes from left to right on here and each horizontal line is a predicted outcome, and in this case, the outcome is precipitation. When viewing these charts we look for general agreement and trends.

Besides the soaking rain this weekend, you can spot the real light rain/sprinkle chance showing up for next Thursday (the 26th). I also noticed a higher than usual number of ensembles predicting a little bit of rain maybe the first few days of July. I’ll keep a close eye on that.

Friday will feature showers with just a few sun breaks here and there between showers. Quick hitting thunderstorms and heavy downpours are possible for all valley locations. The simulated radar image below does a good job depicting this scenario around 2pm Friday.

On Saturday we will actually see some steady rain during the morning/early afternoon hours before transitioning to a few showers later in the day. Again, downpours are definitely possible for all areas west of the Cascades. Steady rain will make it hard for high temps to top 60°.

Sunday: Expect this day to be mostly dry, but an isolated shower or two will require people outdoors to keep an eye to the sky. Overall a much better day weather wise for outdoor activities. Highs around 71°

Mon & Tue: Partly cloudy (more clouds during the morning hours) with lots of afternoon sunshine. Highs 80 to 83°

Wed: Increasing onshore flow again will lower highs back into the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies.

Thu & Fri: Could see another sprinkle or light shower (similar to what we just saw this past Wednesday) at any point during this time frame, but especially Thursday morning. Highs in the mid low to 70s with sun breaks mixed in.

Sat – Mon: June will finish on a warm note with highs in the mid to upper 80s and mostly sunny! A huge contrast to what we will experience this coming weekend.

Take care, enjoy the west weather the best you can, and don’t forget to pray for the people God puts on your heart today. Our world could use more prayer right now.