It’s a great time of year with sunny and mild days, but nice cool nights. I think this is the exact type of weather so many of us Oregonians have grown to love. The forecast is very straight forward with no more thunderstorms or anything wild on the horizon for now, so I say we enjoy the calm weather while it lasts. Here’s the next 7 days:
Enjoy and stay safe! 🙂
We have a fairly good thunderstorm pattern setting up this Saturday. It’s rare to see two decent thunderstorm chances within 10 days of each other around these parts. More on storm chances in a second. Before I move on, I want to acknowledge the significant rainfall we received with the storm Thursday. Check out the rainfall totals from over the past few days.
Remember you should be able to click on images for a closer view. 🙂
Well over half an inch of rain fell across western Oregon Thursday and Friday. It appears the hard working crews out there battling wildfires burning in the Cascades made a lot of progress just in the past 48 hours thanks to the soaking rain we received. Very good news!! Now we can move onto the forecast. 🙂
Saturday: A fairly warm and sunny day will eventually give way to some late day showers and thunderstorms. The majority of the action will take place later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Similar to last Thursday, not everyone will see a bunch of lightning and thunder, but chances are pretty good that at least some of us will experience stormy weather. These storms also have the potential to drop a lot of rain, and even some hail this time in addition to the lightning and thunder. This forecasted radar image shows some heavier showers and thunderstorms crossing the Mid Willamette Valley right around 9PM.
Don’t take the actual positions of the storms or time too literally. The main idea is some of us between Albany and Portland will see storms Saturday and Saturday night at some point between roughly 4 and 11PM.
Sunday: Lots of clouds with a couple of showers late in the day.
Monday: Slight chance for an AM shower or two. Mostly cloudy with sunbreaks later in the day.
Tue – Fri: Varying amounts of clouds and sunbreaks with highs ranging anywhere from 73 – 79° depending on cloud cover each day. Pleasant late summer/early fall weather – albeit maybe a little on the cloudy side at times. Fall is definitely around the corner! Enjoy the exciting weather if you’re “lucky” enough to see a storm, and stay safe!
For a number of us, this past Thursday night provided some of the best nighttime thunderstorms we have seen in a few years with numerous lightning strikes. Here is a great lightning strike which was caught by Jessica Ward looking over Proposal Rock in Neskowin last Thursday night
This map shows lightning strikes (both negative and positive) from Thursday night and Friday morning. It’s very typical for some of us to experience nothing while others see the storm of the decade. Generally speaking, the west side of the Willamette Valley saw the most action. You should be able to click on the image for a better view. If you are curious about the differences between negative and positive strikes, then follow this link for more info: Different types of lightning
Moving ahead, the next seven days feature multiple shots at precipitation (actual rain) as a cool and wetter pattern takes shape over us. In fact, today is already feeling rather fall-like with the grey skies and cooler temps. Here’s the extended forecast.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers – especially late in the day.
Wednesday: Slight chance of a shower or two, but a mostly dry day. Drier than Tuesday. Highs close to 80°
Thursday: Showers and more widespread light rain. Will be the coolest day since June!
Friday: Warmer with more sunbreaks, but a chance for PM showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: A near repeat of Friday, but with a tad more sun and slightly warmer high temps.
Sunday: Lower confidence. Currently, it’s looking cooler with possibly another shot at some rain.
No signs of the heat returning, but we all know September can feature pretty warm temps, so we will see what happens. Certainly much different than last year when we saw our dry summer heat and wildfires drag on right into the middle of October!
A fresh update for you all with a look at a few chances for thunderstorms, a quick recap of how Hurricane Hilary affected Oregon, and of course an extended forecast. Let’s start with Hurricane Hilary.
As mentioned in the previous update, the remnants of the hurricane were forecasted to move through eastern Oregon, and sure enough they did. Check out the 3 day rainfall totals.
Some of the driest parts of the state picked up 1 to 2 inches of rain. A few spots up in the Wallowas recorded upwards of 3 inches! That’s a good soaking for those areas. No big wildfire threats over there for the time being. Meanwhile, the Cascades, Coast Range, and the valleys of western Oregon remain dry with active fires still burning.
Moving onto the forecast, it’s looking more interesting as we could have our best chance for thunderstorms of the entire summer this Thursday night and Friday. We could see a rare nocturnal thunderstorm event thanks to an upper level low pulling monsoonal moisture from the south. Below are three images showing the position of this upper level low. These charts are showing wind direction and temperature anomalies for this time of year for about 13,000 feet up in the atmosphere.
Notice where I added the “L” near the center of this upper level low off of our coast, and notice how it just sits there day after day after day. On the days when it is further offshore we will see temperatures soar into the low 90s, but when it gets closer we start seeing chances for storms and or just plain old showers and cooler temperatures. Extremely tricky to forecast when it’s just meandering carelessly out there, but I will do my very best. Reminds me of some of my students who sort of just meander around the hall until they eventually stumble into class…. 😉
Thu: Sunny and very warm.
Thursday night – Friday morning: Thunderstorms are possible anywhere from the coast to the Cascades and everywhere in between. Like usual no particular location is guaranteed a storm, and some of us will see nothing, but others of you will luck out and see a good light show Thursday night. 🙂
Friday afternoon/evening: Should dry out nicely. This is of course assuming we even get rain Thursday night. 😉
Sat & Sun: Very warm, mostly sunny, and dry days. Thunderstorms up in the Cascades each afternoon/evening.
Mon – Wed: The same upper level low which will bring us storms this week will finally move in at some point during this time frame. Depending on its trajectory, we could see regular showers, some light drizzle, or more thunderstorms. Regardless, these few days will be noticeably cooler and cloudier with increased chances for rain.
I’ll do my best to keep you all updated on any changes. I’ve definitely enjoyed posting a little more regularly as of late, and I hope to continue. Stay cool, safe, and healthy out there!! 🙂
First, the cooler nights and more reasonable daytime highs have been extremely nice after the intense heatwave we just experienced.
Second, it has become clear we will now stay dry through the next several days. In the previous update I mentioned Salem had a chance for a couple showers Sunday and Monday. Well that chance has shifted to our east. In fact, eastern Oregon is expected to get soaked in the coming days as the leftovers of Hurricane Hilary move through that particular region. Here’s the forecasted track of the storm.
I should emphasize eastern Oregon will only be experiencing remnants of the hurricane. Rain and a few thunderstorms will be the primary effects felt in Oregon. So, don’t buy into any hype you see stating how a hurricane is going to hit Oregon.
This map of the estimated rainfall totals through Wednesday does a good job of showing the soaking rain the eastern parts of the state are expected to receive. It’s definitely odd to see cities like Ontario or Baker City getting more rain than locations on the coast.
Okay, enough hurricane talk lol. On to our forecast.
Today and Sunday: Highs 91 to 95, but lows should dip down close to 55. Smoky skies will return, especially Saturday evening through Sunday.
Mon – Wed: Highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 50s. Excellent late summer weather in my humble opinion with partly cloudy skies and some light breezes.
For now there is no rain in sight meaning we stay high and dry here in the Willamette Valley until further notice.
Stay safe, and enjoy the warm weather.
The heat is on, and we still have a few more days of intense heat to go. The pic below showcases the extremely hot high temperatures cities from around the northwest saw Monday.
1.) Brutal heat continues for a few more days. The yucky smoky/hazy skies will also stick with us for much of the week. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night will struggle to even reach 70°.
2.) The heat lets up a little bit on Thursday with highs in the mid 90s – which is still extremely hot. Friday will be a bit closer to normal summertime weather with highs in the upper 80s.
3.) Saturday should be quite a bit cooler with partly cloudy skies.
4.) Sun & Mon: We might have a shot at some actual rain! Yes, showers are possible for Sunday and Monday. I still have those days highlighted yellow due to a higher level of uncertainty, but as of right now, I’m forecasting at least the chance for showers those two days.
There you have it. Do the best you can to stay cool and safe!
I hope you all have enjoyed the nice weather we have had recently, because it’s about to get really, really hot. The forecast is pretty straight forward. Basically we have a very intense heat wave coming up which will last for several days. The nights will also be quite warm. Here’s what I’m thinking for the next 7 days:
1.) While it will be really hot here in the valley, the coast will stay relatively mild through most of this event. Sunday and Monday will likely be the warmest days out along the coastline.
2.) There is a strong signal on the weather models indicating we cool down significantly Saturday of next week. This means we have an end in sight for the hot weather.
Enjoy the best you, and stay safe and cool.
Bryan Weather Alerts 