Important weekend changes

On September 13, 2018 By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, UncategorizedLeave a comment

The forecast for the most part has been working out just fine. We had some heavy showers and even a few claps of thunder in the area yesterday making for a rather exciting day weather wise at least for a weather guy like myself…

Today: a few showers. More dry time than rainy time.

Friday: mostly dry with just an isolated shower possible.

Saturday: BIG changes here: it’s now looking dry & mild Saturday. The storm that was posed to come in Saturday morning is now looking to arrive Sunday which means…

Sunday will be a wet and breezy.

Much of next week still looks dry, but not quite as warm. Should be more like mid 70s which will still feel very nice after this week.

Thursday of next week is highlighted yellow due to higher than normal uncertainty as we will be right on the edge of a warm & dry air mass and a wet system out in the Pacific.

Sept 9.13

Storm wrap up and a look ahead

On February 22, 2018 By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, UncategorizedLeave a comment

Another day, another storm, and another miss for Salem. I again apologize for the lack of snow in the Salem area. The best way I can explain it is that there’s an invisible dome over Salem keeping the snow out… All joking aside, the forecast actually worked out well for just about everyone else. Snow fell in the higher hills around and outside of town, Portland got yet another round of snow, Corvallis got a little bit of snow, and parts of Eugene got around 3 inches. Below are pics from my house in south Salem this morning where we got a little over an inch. Big whoop :p

Last night I went to bed happy figuring that we would wake up with more snow on the ground, but that ended up not being the case. I am still reviewing Tuesday’s big miss, and combined with what happened last night, I’m finding there’s still a lot to be learned regarding how I read and interpret the various weather computer models, charts, and maps. Hopefully I can use this information and knowledge to help increase my forecasting accuracy in the future.

Looking ahead

One thing is certain, it’s very cold out there! Our average high this time of year is 52 degrees, but today we will barely top 40. Brrrrrrr!!!

Lows tonight will easily drop into the low to mid twenties which sets us up for another cold day Friday.

Moisture moves in Friday evening, but by then we will be warm enough for rain.

Saturday and Sunday will be cold and wet with snow levels down to 1000 feet or so at times.

Monday of next week looks even cooler with maybe a chance for a rain/snow mix, but still lots of time for that to change.

Lots and lots of snow for the mountains all across the state over the next 7 days!!! Great news for ski resorts and our summer water supply!!!

Some personal thoughts to wrap things up. It’s easy to feel sad and even upset when a forecast does not work out as planed, but today I was reminded that there are more important things in life than getting a forecast right. With all the rough and terrible events happening in this world I need to keep in mind the importance of sharing God’s love with others. Our world is full of sad and hurting people who could really use some extra kindness and love. And who knows??? That little bit of love we share with them could make a big difference in their life. Just a few thoughts to help maintain perspective today.

Enjoy your day!!

P.S. To my beloved school faculty followers, who for the record, work very hard teaching and dealing with crazy kids and youth 5 days a week: I’m sorry we could not get even one snow day this winter, but I guess we had quite a few last year. I suppose we could still see one in the next few weeks; otherwise, there’s always next winter 🙂

We have a snowstorm on our hands!!!

On February 21, 2018 By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, Uncategorized, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

WOO HOO!!!!!

Finally!!! Tonight we have everything coming together for a decent snowstorm here in Salem. I fully expect a snow day tomorrow for schools.

Temperatures are falling close to freezing and should dip below freezing as the evening wears on. Precipitation looks to be steady tonight which will help the snow accumulate quicker. I suppose something last minute could go terribly wrong, but I’m feeling much more confident tonight that snow and cold will win out.

My best guess for accumulations??? Most likely 2 to 4 inches (maybe more for someone real lucky), but as I’ve said before, snow totals are always so tough to get right. All I know is that the higher you live in elevation, the better chance you have of seeing higher snow totals!!

Snow will eventually arrive in both the Corvallis and the Eugene “metro areas” as well.

Let’s see how this plays out, but it should be fun, at least for me 😉

Enjoy the snow and be safe out there!!

Forecast Disaster

On February 21, 2018 By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, UncategorizedLeave a comment

Time to admit it. My forecast for Tuesday went up in flames. It was awful and hands down the most stressful day as weather forecaster I’ve had in a very long time. I think I had 3 or 4 dreams last night about Salem not getting any snow and then I woke up and remembered that it was actually true 😦 ugh!!!! What a terrible day. My gut instinct told me that we were never going to get the 2 – 5 or 2 to 7 inches that some forecasts (including the National Weather Service) were putting out, but I still would have thought we ended up with at least a dusting of snow and that just did not happen. Originally, I was betting on close to an inch for some with 2 or 3 inches for many of us. That did not happen.

I’m so sorry to all my “fans” and followers that I was so far off. Below I have some important take aways to keep in mind for future events and a recap of what happened yesterday.

Snow fell just about everywhere north of Woodburn, so we were actually not very far from snow at all. Snow also fell south of us in parts of Eugene, Springfield, and the area around Sweet Home. Check out this depressing radar image from last night. Take note of the rainy (green) blob centered over Salem and notice the snow (blue) to our north and to our south 😦 grrrrr how frustrating!!! I guess there’s always next time.

Another point worth mentioning was how cold the temperatures were up in the atmosphere above us Tuesday morning. They were colder than what we had Sunday morning which gave me hope that snow would be on the way.
We did have snow showers much of the morning, and some of you did have a dusting of snow right around 6 to 8am. So those two aspects worked out well.
Roads froze up and the cold air did move in as expected. It just came in after the moisture left our region – how typical….
For my viewers who live north of Woodburn the forecast stayed on track. Below are a few traffic cam pics from this morning showing the winter wonderland that came oh so close to Salem, but yet stayed so far away:

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Some things to remember

No matter how cold it is up in the atmosphere, it is tough to have sticking snow when precipitation is light and when winds are out of the south. It can be done, but those two factors make it much more difficult to achieve.
I made my own website so I could have my own forecast for all of you, and that’s what I should have done. After all, they don’t pay me the big bucks just to copy and paste other forecasts right?? I have lots of fun, joy, and pride in making my own forecast every single time I update this website, and I go to great lengths to make sure it’s accurate. With so much on the line yesterday I went with a blend of my own personal take on what was going to happen combined with what the “professionals” were calling for. It’s time for me to call my own shots 😉
Even if I had called my own shots, I still would have been wrong. We did not see any snow last night here in Salem which went against my original forecast.
I learned some other things about how to better read weather soundings and a few other technical/nerdy weather charts that will help improve my forecasts in the future.
I guess it’s on to the next storm!!!!

A big swing and a miss

On January 8, 2018February 19, 2018 By bryanweatherIn UncategorizedLeave a comment

This should not be too hard for my friends and family to understand, but I’m prone to getting a big ego every once in awhile. Like when I’m winning in a card game, or when I beat my family in a friendly game of Monopoly. Anyway, I was (and still am) extremely excited about this new website, and it is my hope that everyone can get a few laughs out of this site from time to time. However, I also hope that it really can be useful and helpful for anyone looking for an “accurate” forecast.

Yesterday I was so excited for the launch of the website that I overlooked what was going to happen the very next day. Today the sun did not come out and light rain fell in places 😦 I’ll try to not make a habit of overlooking the next day. I’m sorry, but even I make mistakes sometimes 😉 So, with that out of the way, here’s to better forecasts in the future.

PS. If it makes anyone feel better, I think we have a very nice weekend coming up, but more on that later. Right now I got to get ready for class…

Going global…

On January 6, 2018January 8, 2018 By bryanweatherIn Uncategorized1 Comment

The “Bryan Weather Alerts” some of you have come to know and love will now be featured here on my very own website!!! I’m super excited to share my nerdy obsession with forecasting weather and for the weather in general on the wonderful world wide web. I don’t have much more to say at this point.

People close to me will understand and know that I’m not exactly a tech savvy guy. This is really nothing more than a test run for myself on how to successfully write a blog and post it. This post also serves as a greeting to all who find themselves reading my first blog post. I look forward to many fun times ahead as I attempt to accurately forecast our local weather and even on occasion the weather happening around the world where my closest friends and family members may find themselves.

Bryan Bowles