Headlines

• Sun – Tue: A very wet three day period. Highs in the low 50s.
• Wed: Few leftover showers. Partly cloudy. High of 53°.
• Thu – Sun: Mostly dry. Highs in the mid 50s. I imagine there will be some morning fog, but leading to afternoon sunshine with a few clouds here and there. Lows each morning start out near freezing.

Details

The next three days will be very wet with frequent periods rain. Highs each day in the low 50s. More than 2 inches of rain is expected for the mid Willamette Valley through Tuesday night. 3 to 4 inches of rain in the mountains. Fortunately, some of that will fall as snow up in the Cascades.

Wednesday could feature leftover showers, but nothing long lasting, and sunbreaks will almost certainly make an appearance.

Thursday through next Sunday. This time frame currently looks dry. Highs creeping into the upper 50s, but morning lows still starting out near the freezing mark.

Cascades

Ski resorts can expect 6 to 14 inches of snow with this storm, but they should also expect melting rains at times as well. The boundary between cold and warm air will be draped almost directly over us through Wednesday. This means ski areas will be switching back and forth between rain and snow. Hoodoo has 28″ this afternoon, and it looks like it was a decent day up on the mountain. Let’s see where they are at by Wednesday morning.

“Snow” recap”

Thank goodness our uneventful brush with snow is over. That is hands down the most difficult pattern to forecast. Unlike last February’s snow storm, which was well predicted a few days ahead of time, this setup was very showery with lots of factors at play. Turns out most of us below 1000 feet in the mid valley saw no accumulating snow, but locations near the valley floor west of Hillsboro and Forest Grove saw multiple inches of snow. I also saw beautiful pictures of a snow covered highway near Cascade Head north of Lincoln City (which I’ll try and share at a later date), and snow covered docks near Tidewater, Seaside, and locations near Tillamook.

I expected someone somewhere in the mid Willamette Valley to at least end up with a slushy coating, but we didn’t, and that’s how those showery patterns go. I’m pretty happy I at least maintained the “nothing” or “no snow” outcomes as real possibilities for the valley, because in the end, that’s what most of us saw.

Most likely that was our one and only shot at snow this season, but who knows. Maybe we get another last chance in March. Have a wonderful and safe rest of your weekend!

Okay, one more time this week we have a mediocre chance at seeing some slushy snow tonight through Thursday morning. Currently, it looks like the west side of the valley will see the best chance for a little accumulating snow while the east side of the valley might not get much of anything – rain or snow.

All valley locations fall under this forecast of nothing to three inches (max) with most of us being in the nothing category with west side locations having a better chance than east valley locations. Details below:

Details

Tonight’s storm is forecasted to head right up into the coastline and then move almost directly south instead of pushing inland. The result? Moisture is concentrated and heavier along the Coast Range and western valley locations while leaving the eastern valley mostly dry. I’ve provided a few maps to illustrate what I’m thinking.

This first map is an estimated radar image for 10PM tonight. Look at all the snow up and down the Coast Range? Impressive. Maybe 2 to 4 inches in the Coast Range tonight.

Can you see the sharp cutoff of precip from west to east? East of Salem looks almost dry.

Then look at 4am Thursday morning. Snow falling just south of Salem as this storm moves southward and away from us. You see why a location like Silverton might not get hardly any precip at all in this setup.

Snow forecast

Dallas, south Salem hills, Independence, Monmouth, Corvallis, McMinnville, Amity, and locations around these towns: Nothing – two inches.

Elevations above 1000′ in the western Willamette Valley and near the Coast Range could see up to three inches.

East valley locations including Keizer, most of Salem, Woodburn, and Silverton: most likely nothing. Too much south wind also, which typically kills snow chances for the lowest elevations.

Locations south of Highway 22, such as Sublimity and Stayton, Scio, Jefferson, Lebanon etc. have a higher chance for a slushy coating, but little more than that.

Here’s another snowfall map, and again, hard pressed to find snow generally east of I-5 unless you are south of Salem towards Eugene. This model overdoes snowfall totals, so ignore the gray.

Models aren’t perfect, and maybe someone ends up with a surprise, but don’t count on it. Plan on Thursday being a normal regular day of school and work, and if you really want snow, well then hope this storm moves a little further east.

Mountain report

I hear Hoodoo is opening on Friday. No word on Willamette Pass, but they are hoping! Hoodoo is up to 27″ which is the highest base they’ve had since early January (sad I know). A few more inches for Thursday and Friday, and then an additional 2 to 3 inches Saturday morning.

Stay safe and enjoy whatever ends up happening! 🙂

Let’s keep this short tonight. Homework calls, life is busy, but so is the weather. Today was actually a mostly dry day. I woke up (as did anyone reading this haha), but I woke up to some frozen slush on my windshield and light snow falling around 7AM. The majority of the day ended up dry for Salem and the mid Willamette Valley with ample sunbreaks warming us to the mid 40s.

These showery patterns are extremely difficult to forecast when we have regular temperatures, but throw in colder air, and it gets even more complicated. For instance, Lincoln City had a little snow last night, and the Grand Ronde area, but locations with higher elevations farther north had none. Really depends who gets the heavier showers, so know that I’m doing my best. 🙂

Highlights

Early Wednesday morning provides our second and slightly better shot at seeing snow here in the valley this week. Keep in mind widespread accumulation is still very unlikely, but a few more neighborhoods will wake up to slushy snow either on the ground or at least in the air than this past morning. Here’s two estimated radar images for Wednesday at 8AM and 10AM:

What stands out to me is a concentration of snow showers will occur somewhere in the Willamette Valley between 4 and 10AM – earlier for locations on the west side of the valley. Despite the slightly better snowfall chances for Wednesday morning, snowfall maps do not look all that impressive. Here’s total snowfall through 10AM Wed:

This map doesn’t exactly inspire the sledder in me lol. Seems like 1 – 3″ above 1000′, and nothing to an inch below that. Scattered showers continue through the remainder of the day with a few sunbreaks in between. High of 45°.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning we do it all again. I’ll do my best to provide another update later tomorrow in regards to Thursday morning.

Friday now looks to stay dry with a cold and frosty start, and sunny afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s.

Saturday could end up being dry too with rain maybe holding off until Sunday, but more details in my next post.

Take care, and happy Wednesday!

I realize my previous forecast emphasized the Tuesday through Friday timeframe for our best shot at wintry weather; however, this morning the snow level dropped a little bit lower than I expected and locations like Sweet Home, Lyons, the hills around Silver Creek Falls, and Mill City all saw some snow this morning. A stalled out cold front, known as an “anafront,” brought the snow level down much lower around 8 to 10AM this morning. The rest of the today will be mostly cloudy with showers (some heavy) at times. High of 44°.

Important forecast thoughts. 🙂

In this weather pattern I cannot easily tell you who will or will not get snow. It depends on where the heaviest showers fall. Of course, higher elevations typically do better, but anyone could see snow this week if things line up right.

I’ve created two zones based on elevation. These are generalizations and should be taken with a few grains of salt. We will be dealing with a very showery pattern for much of this week meaning snow totals will not be uniform. Please use these zones as guidelines rather than set in stone boundaries keeping in mind that the scattered nature of these showers could throw things off a bit.

Zones

Zone one: The lowest elevations generally below 700′. This includes most of Salem, all of Keizer, Woodburn, Mount Angel, Albany, Independence/Monmouth, Scio, Stayton/Sublimity etc. Basically, if you know your elevation is below 700 feet, then you are in Zone one.

Zone two: Elevations 700 to 2000 feet. This includes the highest parts of the south and west Salem hills, Eola Hills, the hills around Amity and Bethel, hills around Dallas, locations outside of Silverton & around Silver Creek Falls, and any locations up against the Coast Range or Cascade Foothills with some elevation to them.

Highlights

TUE: Snow in the air with some slush in the highest hills around town. PM showers and sunbreaks. Zone one: Nothing – one inch. Zone two: Nothing – 3 inches.

WED: A few more spots of sticking snow. Cold enough that snow could accumulate anywhere. Same afternoon shower and sunbreak routine. Zone one: Nothing – one inch. Zone two: Nothing – 2 inches.

THU: This could be our best chance for widespread sticking snowfall. Expect more updates as we get closer, but I’m watching Thursday very closely. 🙂 The possibility exists for higher totals (a few inches) down to the valley floor if things setup as some models are showing. No details for Zone one yet. Zone two: 1 – 4 inches widespread.

FRI: Scattered snow showers will once again give a few neighborhoods accumulating snow, but not all. PM showers & sunbreaks. Zone one: Nothing – one inch. Zone two: Nothing – 2 inches.

Details

Tuesday: Lots of snow in the air in the Willamette Valley during the morning hours as numerous showers pass overhead. In general, higher elevations will do better, but it’s a game of where the heaviest showers setup. The map below shows estimated snowfall totals now through Tuesday afternoon. Take a look.

What stands out to me is the lack of any coloring (other than gray) over most of the Willamette Valley. This indicates the atmosphere will be a little too “warm” for sticking snow in the majority of those “Zone one” locations. I see the south Salem hills have a touch of blue on them. Could be slushy up there along Kuebler in the morning hours – maybe…

Heavier precip could drag the snow level lower Tuesday morning for areas around and south of Corvallis down to Eugene. Something else to watch for.

I’ve seen this setup before, and a few of the heavier showers Tuesday afternoon could turn your neighborhood white with small hail or graupel even if you miss out on the morning snow. High of 43°.

Wednesday: Slightly colder with a few scattered showers. Right now, I’m thinking Wednesday morning has a little bit higher chance for sticking snow down to the valley floor with a low of 31°. The limiting factor could be less moisture available. High of 44°.

Thursday: A morning low of 32° with more moisture moving through the valley than any other morning this week. This combo could set us up for some actual snowfall, but things need to line up just right. I plan to have additional updates in the days ahead to provide more details. For now, keep Thursday on your radar as having more potential for accumulating snow. High of only 40°.

Friday: Regardless of what happens Thursday, Friday morning will be the same routine as Tue & Wed. A few AM snow showers with afternoon showers of wet snow/rain/hail/graupel. Sunbreaks mixed in. Morning low of 31°. High of 43°.

The mountains

Coast Rang passes: Heavy showers at any point could briefly lay down a slick layer of snow or graupel (snow/ice pellets). Besides those exceptions, Coast Range roads remain just wet during the daylight hours turning snowy/slushy, or even a little bit icy during the nighttime and morning hours.

Cascade passes will be tricky in the next several days. I see there is currently a bit of traffic on highway 20 near Hoodoo due to a wreck. Take it easy, know your limits, and you should be fine traveling up there. Just be prepared for snow covered roads and icy spots with low visibility under the heavier snow showers. Snow totals of 12 to 18 inches through Friday with more snow continuing through the following week.

Hoodoo has a base of 21.5″ and counting. Hoping they get plenty of snow to open all their lifts and runs this weekend! Similar story for Willamette Pass.

Coastal locations

Coastal cities could see brief coatings of snow during the colder evening/overnight hours this week. Showers will be more frequent out along the coast over the next several days, and if temps are cold enough, some of those showers could be snow. Expect lots of downpours with a few sunbreaks mixed in at times during the afternoon hours.

That’s it for now. As always, stay safe out there. 🙂

Our very mild and tranquil winter is finally shifting gears with a much colder week on tap, and at times wetter, and possibly whiter too. Yes, for the first time this entire winter season I’m thinking the Willamette Valley has a shot as seeing at least snow in the air, and maybe something more exciting.

Highlights

From Monday night through Friday we will be in a very chilly pattern with showers and occasional sunbreaks. Random more organized waves of precip will also move through from time to time.

This is not a major snowstorm setup where we can know days ahead of time that it will be snowy or icy, nor will this be a deep freeze setup. This is a play it by ear type of pattern where if all the ingredients line up at the right time we could see a few slushy inches of snow here in the lowest parts of the valley.

Any snow that does fall would melt by late morning or by noon. Impacts would primarily be limited to the late night and early morning hours only.

Locations with any extra elevation (higher hills west and south of Salem, Waldo Hills east of Salem, etc.) will most certainly stand a higher chance at seeing some snow this week. The foothills, the Coast Range, and the Cascades will all score well too – finally! I have a Cascade forecast near the bottom of this post.

Details

Monday: A chilly rain. High of 46°. Turning to showers Monday night.

Tuesday: Morning low of 34°. This will be our first shot at seeing snow both in the air flying around, and possibly sticking. Too soon to know details. I foresee more updates as each of these events draws closer. The afternoon will consist of showers, sunbreaks, and a few hefty downpours. Hail and graupel are very likely almost every day this week as cold air aloft moves overhead. High of 45°.

Wednesday: Day two of our dance/flirt with snow. Morning low of 32°, and a high of 44°. More afternoon showers and sunbreaks.

Thursday: As of right now, this day stands to be our best opportunity for accumulating snowfall down to the valley floor. A low of 31° and a high of only 42° as a more organized band of precipitation crosses the Willamette Valley Thursday morning. At the same time, the airmass will be pretty cold. Too soon to get excited, but at a minimum, it will be another chilly day with showers and some small hail or graupel.

Friday: Rinse and repeat. Low of 31° and high of 43° with more very chilly showers.

Saturday: The trend for Saturday is for a mostly or even completely dry start with increasing rain late in the day. AM low of 32° and high of 45°.

Sunday: Rainy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.

How about a few images to illustrate what we might be seeing? This first image is for Tuesday morning. I’ve pointed out the snow in the Coast Range (blue), and the rain in the middle of the Willamette Valley (green). I also see a few spots of blue and pink across the valley indicating a very close call with snow that morning.

Then scattered snow showers in the area come Wednesday morning. Please note that snow in the air or on this map does not equal accumulating snow. I’ve noticed this particular weather model likes to produce snowfall with temperatures up to about 37° which is way too “warm” for snow to stick, but you get the idea.

And lastly, Thursday morning. You’ll notice more widespread blue over the valley. This model and other forecasting models have been insisting on a steady batch of precip Thursday morning (similar to what’s pictured below). This could give anyone some slushy snow regardless of elevation.

Main message is that we will be very close to seeing snow any of those three mornings. Honestly, Friday morning too. So four days in a row with a chance for some wet snow. Typically in this weather pattern we can identify snow chances with higher accuracy about 24 to 48 hours in advance.

The Cascades

It’s unfortunate that the snowfall this past week was not enough to reopen Hoodoo and Willamette Pass. That sucks to miss out on such a big weekend. The best news I can offer is snow ramps up again over the next several days, and openings next weekend (20th – 22nd) seem much more likely. Snowfall totals through Friday should be at least between 10 and 18 inches at pass level, with potential for a little more. Hoodoo currently has 17 inches at their base. Hoping this can be enough for them to open. Additional snow falls next Sunday.

As always, stay safe, and have a great rest of your weekend!

Highlights

• Rainy Saturday and Sunday.
• Showers on Monday.
• Mountain snow finally returns this week.
• Cooler and cloudier next week.
• Cool and wet weather continues for Valentine’s Day and President’s Day weekend.

Details

This will be a shorter post with more details next week. The main message is the reliably dry weather we have experienced this week is ending, temperatures will return to normal, and the mountains will finally begin accumulating snow again. Even cooler weather likely next weekend.

Saturday: Some light rain in the morning. Increasing in intensity during the afternoon.

Sunday: Super Bowl Sunday is going to be wet. Steady rain, heavy at times, will make for a total washout of a day. Half time football games with your friends or family are going to be muddy. High around 52°. The image below shows the estimated radar for Sunday mid morning. Looks wet!

Monday: Leftover showers. High around 52° again.

Tue – Thu: Lots of clouds, some morning fog in parts of the valley, and a few afternoon sunbreaks. Lows in the low to mid 30s with frost possible. Highs in the low 50s.

Friday: A cold front will bring a short period of steady rain followed by showers and sunbreaks. Cool. Highs in the mid 40s.

Sat – Mon: The Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend looks cool and possibly wet.  Going with highs in the mid to upper 40s for now.

The Cascades

Snowfall over the next several days will be limited to Sunday and Monday. 6 – 12 inches of new snow will fall at pass level and the ski resorts. The map below shows total snowfall through Monday evening. Will this be enough to reopen ski resort terrain? Hard to say, but it can’t hurt.

Additional snow is likely Friday and Saturday. Hopefully enough to allow resorts to operate at normal conditions for President’s Day weekend.

Keep an eye out for more updates as the next few weeks could bring the potential for more “exciting” and potentially impactful weather events. Whether it’s heavier rain, gusty winds, or something more, I’ll be watching closely.

Stay safe, enjoy the weekend, the Winter Olympics, the Super Bowl, and whatever else is going on this weekend! 🙂

This is a short forecast update with a few small changes involving the next 7 days.

1.) Ingredients are coming together to give us a really nice Saturday. Clouds tonight will limit the development of fog. The cloud cover also keeps our temperatures “warmer” tonight. Remember, our coldest nights occur when we have clear skies and calm winds allowing for maximum radiational cooling. That will not happen tonight due to the lingering cloud cover. Then the clouds clear up Saturday morning leading to a beautiful mostly sunny day! Highs around 60° 🙂

2.) Sunday still looks wet with frequent showers. Some showers could be on the heavier side.

3.) Monday: Small change here. Monday now looks mostly dry, but a few sprinkles are likely the farther northwest you go. Albany, Stayton, Scio should have a nice dry day in the upper 50s to near 60°, but McMinnville, Newberg, and Portland stand a higher chance of seeing a few light showers Monday and highs in the lower 50s. For Salem (sort of right in the middle), I’m going with mostly cloudy, but dry. High of 54°.

4.) Very warm weather Tue – Fri of this coming week (maybe next Saturday too). Highs around 60° all four days! Fog could develop each morning hindering temps a little, but we will see. Even if fog does show up, I still see us making at least the mid 50s each afternoon under full sunshine! Lows start out in the 30s each morning still making for frosty starts to our days, but the payoff will be very mild/warm afternoons.

5.) Rain returns by Sunday, and this should kick off what looks to be a much cooler and wetter pattern. Great for mountain snow!

For Saturday and much of this coming week it will be even warmer out along the coast (mid to upper 60s). Just in case you really want some late winter warmth.

Alright, have a safe and super amazing weekend enjoying the nice weather! Looks like Miami Florida will be colder than Salem on Sunday as they experience a historic cold snap down there with their highs struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. Interesting weather for sure!