Category: Salem Area Forecast

Brutal heat, May 2021, and a quick look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn 2021, Extra!!, Monthly reports, Salem Area Forecast, Weather Year 2020/2021Leave a comment

First off I would like to recognize the brief, but major heatwave we just experienced. Very rare to see temps so hot this early in the season. Check out the scorching high temperatures we experienced on Tuesday. Lots of new records!

Another nice little graphic I’m borrowing from Fox 12 Oregon showing some of the new records set around the region this past Tuesday.

A significant warm spell for so early in the season, and for those of us who work either outdoors or in buildings with no AC it has been a brutal few days!

Moving on, let’s recap May 2021. Some things just don’t change with yet another very dry month here in Salem. A lack of significant rainfall kept us at 42% of our normal precip for the month (.94 inches). We also ended on the warmer side of things at 2.48° above normal. In the meteorological community, the official spring season is from March 1st through May 31st. This spring will go down as the 8th driest on record here in Salem!

Below is a graph I made showing total rainfall since March started (the blue line) versus our normal cumulative rainfall (the green line). It’s easy to see that since March begun we have fallen further and further behind normal, and until we get some significant rainfall, this gap will continue to grow.

Unless we have a crazy wet summer, our drought conditions will only continue to worsen. Again, keep in mind a drought does not equal or guarantee a bad fire season, but it definitely helps set the stage for one. As much as it kills me to say this, hopefully we can manage a few summertime soakings to help minimize the fire threat.

Extended Forecast

Not a whole lot to report on. We do have some much cooler weather on tap for Saturday through most of next week. We even have a chance for some really light rain/drizzle Saturday.

Main points to know:

  • Light rain/drizzle is possible Saturday, but don’t let it stop you from going outdoors. This will not be a washout type of day at all. Wetter up in the both the Coast Range and Cascades though if your plans take you there…
  • No sign of a rainy or real wet day at all. Sure we will see a few sprinkles, but nothing which will really make a dent in our drought.
  • Most of next week will be cool with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows dipping back down into the upper 40s at night!
  • No sign of another heatwave anytime soon…

Take care, stay safe, and have a fantastic rest of your week!!

Extended forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A quick write up for you during my lunchbreak. We have a slight chance of some thunder this afternoon plus I figured I would highlight the good and bad days for out door activities and projects as we have few rainy days on tap this week.

Highlights

  • The rest of today is going to be (for the most part) wet. Maybe a rumble of thunder or two later this afternoon along with a few downpours.
  • A few showers on Tuesday.
  • Wednesday’s shaping up to be nice and sunny with highs in the mid 70s.
  • Thursday: Rainy and breezy. A real spring soaker type of day.
  • Friday: A couple leftover showers; otherwise, mostly dry.
  • Memorial day weekend. Sat – Mon should be warm & dry. Highs in the 70s and 80s!

It’s nice to see some rain showing up as we desperately need it. Curious to see how much we end end up with… Regardless, it’s much needed. I’ll have a nice little update on where we stand in terms of our drought conditions later this week.

Have a great rest of your Monday! Take care of yourselves and stay safe!

Finally some more “active” weather

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS, Winter 2020/2021 OutlookLeave a comment

It’s been a dry spring. Really dry. Back in March we saw 58% of our typical rainfall for the month, then April rolled around even drier with 45% of that month’s average, and now here we are well into May and it’s still dry. Salem has received less than 27% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month. I imagine by now most of us are in summer mode, but we definitely could use the rain. Below is the estimated total precip through next Monday, and unfortunately it’s not a lot, but it’s the most we have seen in quite some time. Every little bit helps, but we are going to need a lot more rain if we want to avoid severe drought conditions this summer. The good thing is I see heavier rainfall predicted for areas east of the Cascades which should help ease conditions over there.

Forecast

1.) Scattered showers today with plenty of sunbreaks. A few thunderstorms are possible as well during the afternoon and early evening hours. Be prepared for some heavy downpours in places. Some showers could contain small hail.

2.) A few less showers on Thursday with lots of sunbreaks. Best chance for showers will be after 3PM.

3.) Plan on both Friday and Saturday being totally dry, but keep an eye to the sky during the late afternoon and evening hours both days as there will still be the slightest chance for a late day shower. More so close to the Coast Range and Cascade Range.

4.) The chance for rain goes up on Sunday morning as another little storm system rolls through bringing a shot at maybe some widespread rainfall.

Overall though, western Oregon is not forecasted to pick up much rain with any of these storm systems. Certainly not enough to eliminate the drought concerns. Sure your neighborhood could see a downpour, but across the whole region we are not expecting much rainfall. The drought monitor shows much of the state is experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OR

Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 had a really nice write up about all this dry weather and what it could mean for us. Check out his full blog post here:

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

Two things from his post I wish to emphasize. Number one is that a dry spring, like the one we’re experiencing now, does not guarantee a bad or destructive fire season. It certainly sets the stage for a bad year; however, a few well placed summer rainstorms can do wonders in preventing large wildfire outbreaks. As long as we get some rain from time to time during the summer months we should fair okay.

The second thing he mentioned is the role lightning plays into all of this. Lightning is a major starter of wildfires. If we stay warm and mostly dry this summer, but have very little in the way of thunderstorm activity, then we could still avoid a bad fire season – so long as humans don’t screw things up.

There you have it! I hope you all are enjoying the work week and making it through okay. Keep an eye to the sky the next few days as these showers could really dump a lot of rain in a short period of time….

Dry May forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

First off I want to acknowledge that yes, it will be wet the next few days (I know that haha lol), but it won’t last long, and before you know it we’ll be returning right back to the warm and dry weather which has dominated our region for the past several weeks. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, check out the early summer like temps out there as of 4PM.

1.) Looking ahead tomorrow starts off dry with a couple of showers moving in during the mid to late afternoon hours. High temps should be around 67°. A few more showers on Friday, but I have to say overall the amount of rain we are expecting over the next few days is not very much at all. A few days ago there was some hope we would get a nice widespread soaking this week/weekend, but that’s just not going to be the case.

2.) Saturday and Sunday will both be basically dry with only a very slight chance for an isolated shower.

3.) The vast majority of next week is looking completely dry with a lot of high temps in the mid to upper 70s. What seems clear is our drier than normal spring is going to continue through next week. A couple days of scattered showers isn’t going to make up for the numerous dry days we have seen and will continue to see in the coming week. We could really use a good dose of rain, but sadly, that’s just the one thing I don’t see coming anytime soon…

Take care, stay safe and healthy, and have a great evening!!

April 2021 and look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn 2021, Monthly reports, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

It was definitely a very unusual April around here as we started off chilly and dry with some record low temps set around the region with lows dipping into the upper 20s on two separate occasions. Then we flipped the switch to warm and dry (very warm in fact). Whether it was cold or warm, the entire month was extremely dry for April. Some last minute rain Friday night bumped us up to 1.27″ (45% of normal) for the month. I almost hate to say this, but we could sure use some good soaking rainstorms over the next couple of months. Check out this graphic from Fox 12 Oregon for Portland where they saw even less rainfall setting a new all time record for driest April up there.

April ended up warmer than normal coming in at 2.27° above average for the month – pretty impressive considering we had lows in the upper 20s a couple days during the first half of the month. Those 80 degree days the second half sure did help to warm us up! Now let’s take a look at what the next 7 days hold for us.

Forecast

Highlights

  • Wednesday’s going to be the nice summer like day of the week with highs in the low 80s and lots of sunshine.
  • Thursday should start off dry, but showers and maybe even a few thundershowers move in during the afternoon and evening hours.
  • Frequent showers on Friday.
  • Saturday through next Monday will be partly cloudy with a couple of showers each day.

Have a great rest of your Sunday!

Lots of records

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, Weather Year 2020/2021Leave a comment

Interesting month so far. We started the month off with some very chilly – even record cold low temperatures, but wow how it has switched and turned around! We just had an incredible stretch of warm April weather with a new record high occurring this past Saturday with a high of 85° – a whopping 24 degrees above normal!!! This graphic from Mark Nelson with Fox 12 Oregon shows high temps in Portland and gives a good visual of our accent from very chilly weather earlier in the month to the record warmth we recently experienced.

The other record we are currently working on is a record dry April. Do you realize we have only picked up 5% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month? We are running way behind average! I have some good news though as rain looks to arrive this weekend. Okay, so rain on the weekend is not necessarily the best timing lol, but we need the rain; otherwise it’s going to be one heck of a summer.

The next 7 days and forecast highlights

Basically rain continues on and off through much of next week, so hopefully we make up some of that deficit.

The wettest days will be Saturday and Sunday. We do have a shot at seeing a few thundershowers on Sunday. Monday should be mostly dry with showers late in the day, and as it stands now, Tuesday looks to be a fairly dry.

There you have it. Have a great rest of your work week and stay safe!

Mid April Update

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, Weather Year 2020/20211 Comment

The sunshine outside is making it feel like a distant memory, but it doesn’t change the fact that we have seen some really chilly nighttime lows (for April) lately. Sunday morning Salem tied its record low of 29°! This nice graphic from The National Weather Service in Portland shows how record lows were widespread this morning across western Oregon.

Despite having a few mild afternoons (our average high this time of year is 60°), Salem is actually running1.8 degrees below normal for the month thanks to these very cold morning lows. Change is coming this week as much warmer weather moves in.

The other interesting thing this month has been the unusually dry weather. Very odd for April to be this dry. Do you realize that we’ve seen a mere 9% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month?!? It’s going to be a long summer if we don’t get a few good soakings later this spring. This graph shows the total rainfall for each April since 1990. Red years were below average while blue ended up with wetter than normal rain totals.

This next map shows estimated total rainfall in inches through next Monday. Basically nothing more than maybe a tenth of an inch falling on next Monday which means our extremely dry April is going to continue.

Might as well make the most of the dry weather though. For all we know May could be gloomy and wet. This whole week and coming weekend will be dry – no question about it with the next chance of rain being (as stated above) next Monday at the soonest. The warmest days will be Thursday – Sunday with highs in the 70s and maybe even low 80s Saturday and Sunday!!

There you have it. Enjoy the sunny and warm weather!