Okay, it’s been a week since we saw a big pattern change from warm & dry to cool & wet, and for the most part things have gone according to plan. The first 20 days of the month featured not one drop of rain, but now 7 of the last 8 days (including today) have seen measurable rainfall. The Cascades have also undergone change with several inches of snow blanketing the volcanic peaks. I really like these before and after pics of Mount Hood with the first picture taken on the 19th and the 2nd pic taken during the early morning hours on the 27th.
By the way, yesterday was just awesome (my opinion) with sunny skies, and comfortable temps. Anyway, here’s the extended forecast for Halloween and the week to follow:
Highlights
1.) Saturday will be mostly dry. It’s just probably going to stay cloudy for much of the day.
2.) Sunday looks great! Classic dry fall day. Fog is likely through the morning hours, but afternoon sunbreaks will follow with temps reaching 60 degrees or higher. 🙂
3.) Halloween starts off dry; however, rain moves in for the late afternoon and evening. It’s unlikely this will change, so plan for a wet evening.
Looking ahead, next weekend (Nov 4th and 5th) could be very wet/stormy, so if you’re hoping for dry weather I would take advantage of this weekend. Just a little heads up.
It’s awful that we are having to deal with fires and smoke in the middle of October, but here we are. Of course some of these fires were human caused, so they are not so “wild.” With that in mind, it is true that regardless of the cause, fires would not be burning out of control like this if our regular early fall rains had showed up on time.
I’ve been mentioning it for awhile now, and it’s finally almost here. The transition from warm, sunny, and dry weather to cool, stormy, and rainy weather will be quick and it’s coming this weekend! Before we dive into anymore details, take a look at how the entire country is doing in regards to temperature so far this month.
Map showing temperature departures for the month of October compared to average.
The pacific northwest is both metaphorically and literally on fire with the majority of locations running 8 to 10 degrees warmer than normal! Meanwhile the east coast has already started winter. Do you realize that parts of Florida dipped below freezing this morning? Back here in Salem we haven’t even cracked 40° yet…..
This next chart is one I enjoy using during the fall and winter months. Time moves from left to right with each horizontal line representing a possible outcome. In this case it’s showing how much rainfall is expected here in Salem. What really stands out is that after Thursday we are done with the days and days on end of reliably dry weather. The rainy season is definitely upon us meaning our prolonged summer is nearly over. There will be no gradual transition into wet season this year. It’s arriving late, but arriving in full force very soon.
Here’s the next 7 days
Highlights
Wed & Thu: Smoke will continue to plague our air quality both days as we continue to stay in a dry and warm pattern.
Fri: Dry with increasing clouds. Rain moves in late afternoon/early evening.
Sat & Sun: Showers and periods of rain with a few sunbreaks. Could see some hail and maybe a rumble of thunder too. Meanwhile the Cascades will actually see their first dumping of snow over the weekend with 4 to 8 inches falling by Sunday night. Sunday will be much drier with sunbreaks and just a few isolated showers around.
More storms roll in next week continuing the stormy weather pattern.
Lastly, it is going to be yet another La Niña winter meaning I expect our winter to overall trend wetter than normal with elevated chances for both flooding and valley snow. Not guarantees; however, La Niña winters favor rainier, snowier, and stormier weather than a typical winter. We will see what happens. Here’s a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies. The classic La Niña signature of cooler than normal waters off the coast of South America really stand out on here.
It’s super late in the year to be seeing 90s, and yet here we are. Salem set a record high temp today 27 degrees above normal at a “scorching” 92°. The stretch of heat we are having is historic, and it’s tragic too in that wildfires continue to burn across the state of Oregon. Here’s a temperature map from 4PM showing the extremely hot temps around the region. Keep in mind it’s October 15th…
The forecast for the coming week is for more sun, more warm temps, more smoke in the air at times, and of course, still no rain. The “coolest” day this coming week will be Monday with highs reaching about 70 which is still warmer than normal by several degrees. We warm back up into the 80s Wed and Thu.
Now if you read my previous post, then you probably remember how optimistic I was that a switch to wetter and cooler weather was coming, and indeed it is still on schedule to arrive right around the 22nd. It can’t come soon enough though as I feel many of us are tired of the warm smoky air. I will happily update you all later this coming week with more details regarding our big and overdue change in the weather, but in the meantime I suppose we should all try our best to enjoy this very warm weather.
I admit I’m stating the obvious when I tell you that our fall season so far has been both extremely warm and dry; however, the part which sticks out the most is the warmth. We have been in record setting territory, but does this mean we might have a warm and mild fall/winter season too, or is there any correlation at all? We’ll take a look in this post. If you’re hoping for a forecast I can tell you that basically it’s looking dry for at least the next 7 or 8 days, so nothing new or exciting, and sadly nothing to really help put out the fires which continue to burn across the PNW.
This past September ended up 3 degrees above normal with only .29″ of rain (just 20% of normal) making for an extremely dry month! In addition to that, September 2022 also recorded seventeen 80+ degree days making the past month feel like an extension of summer. Look at how warm the western half of the country was during September.
Much of the western U.S. was 3 to 5° for the month.
October has also started out extremely warm with 6 out of the first 10 days reaching the 80 degree mark vaulting Salem to 6 degrees above normal for the month! Here’s the temperature anomaly map for the month so far:
The entire state of Oregon and Washington are currently running 6 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for October.
What’s really bizarre though is we have seen years in the past with extremely warm and dry Septembers and even Octobers during La Nina conditions only to flip to stormy weather. Currently we are experiencing (for a third year in a row) La Nina conditions – something to keep in mind.
Let’s look at September 1974. It was a La Nina year and a mere .28″ of rainfall for the entire month which is almost identical to the amount we saw this September. September 1974 was also extremely warm with a whopping 21 days above 80 and 11 days at/above 90°!
So what happened in 1974 after such a warm and dry early fall? Well over 14 inches of rain fell in November and December alone coupled with tons of mountain snow. Let’s look at a few more examples.
Exactly one year later in 1975 (La Nina year), Salem recorded its driest September on record. Not a single drop of rain fell the entire month. It was also very warm with eighteen 80+ degree days. The second half of October through December brought over 16 inches of rain though, and even some pre Christmas snowfall.
How about one more example? September 1998 was very dry as well with only 0.68″ of precip and plenty of mild days to boot. The following November and December dumped 20 inches of rain here in Salem resulting in widespread flooding. Worth noting that this was also a La Nina winter…
Bottom line is a warm and dry first half of fall can easily switch to a very wet, cool, and stormy second half. To be honest, that’s exactly what I expect will happen this year within the next 2 weeks. Watch for updates as the rainy season draws near and enjoy the warm and dry weather while it lasts, because it won’t last for much longer. Winter and the rainy season is coming, it’s just taking it’s sweet sweet time to arrive, but remember this post and know that you’ve been warned. It is coming…. It won’t be long before everything is all soggy, puddles everywhere, the rivers flowing high, and we will start wishing for sun again.
After a loooong long stretch of not posting, I’m back with a helpful update for you all.
I’ve seen a number of various forecasts for the coming days all disagreeing on whether or not it is going to rain here the next several days, and I figured it was time to leap back into action. I have all the details below.
Basically we are on the northern edge of very moist storm which is aimed for California. This is GREAT news for bringing the wildfires under control plus a good soaking rain like this should help prevent any new late season fires from starting. This satellite image from around 1:30PM does a good job of showing the storm’s location as it prepares to hit California.
Highlights
A round of showers and maybe even some thunderstorms roll into our region later this evening through the early morning hours of Sunday from the south/southeast – a fairly unusual pattern for western Oregon.
Monday: Mild and dry with highs in the low 80s.
Tuesday: Mainly dry here in Salem with the exception being locations just south of us roughly from Albany and Corvallis southward. Showers are much more likely down there.
Wed & Thu: Showers both days with highs in the low 70s.
Fri: Back to regular dry and mostly sunny early fall weather! 🙂
The rain coming up from the south should also help significantly with Oregon’s major fires too including the Cedar Creek fire. I fully expect much better news on the fire front come mid week.
We have had some incredibly hot weather this summer, and I plan on highlighting our extremely HOT weather in an end of summer post at a later date. For the moment I wish to highlight our thunderstorm potential here west of the Cascades.
Basically now through Wednesday morning we have a chance for showers and thunderstorms with some of the storms having the potential to be quite strong. This goes for Salem, the entire Willamette Valley, and the coastal cities too. The storms will not be widespread which makes it extremely tough to forecast who will see action and who won’t. Check out these 3 separate forecast images:
This estimated radar image shows Salem getting hit by the tail end of a hefty shower, but missing out on any large storms.
Salem stays dry while strong thunderstorms roll along the Coast Range in this forecast.
Meanwhile this forecast nails Salem with a powerful thunderstorm right over the center of town.
The main idea is that scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the region between now and Wednesday morning. Regardless of whether or not we see storms here in Salem, Wednesday will end up being fairly cool with highs topping out only around 80 degrees.
We stay in the 80s through the weekend 🙂 before the heat returns again later next week
The Cascades and areas east of the mountains will likely see storms too. Depending on rainfall with the storms they can be a blessing or a curse as lightning could fuel more wildfires over there.
Time to see what happens, but don’t be surprised if you get rained on or if you hear thunder.
We are wrapping up day 2 of what will be one of the longer heatwaves we have seen in a few years. No, not the hottest (that title will likely remain with June 2021 for quite awhile), but it will be a very prolonged heatwave. Yesterday Salem reached a high of 94°, and as of 5PM today, we have reached 100°. Phew! Check out the toasty hot temperatures dominating the Pacific Northwest.
There is relief right along the coastline; otherwise, the rest of the northwest is baking (and will continue to bake) under the hot July sun. The sun below pretty much sums up the extended forecast. There are just a few highlights I wish to share with you before wrapping this post up.
1.) Nights will be unusually warm due to increasing humidity which will make it really tough to cool your house down with just open windows. Lows will bottom out 62 – 65° tonight through Monday morning of next week! Yes, it’s really going to be a long stretch of extremely hot weather!
2.) The length of the heat is my 2nd highlight. Highs anywhere from 96 to 102° are likely through Saturday with lower 90s continuing into early next week.
3.) Hang in there because much cooler weather should be arriving sometime around August 2nd or 3rd.
Stay cool, check up on people who may not have AC, and keep hydrated!!
Bryan Weather Alerts 