There is a lot going on in the weather world right now, and so much to cover. Phew! I’m both excited and exhausted just thinking about it all, so let’s begin!!

The forecast

The rest of today (Saturday): Showers, downpours, maybe a rumble of thunder, and a few more sunbreaks before night comes.

Sunday: A slightly sunnier version of today’s weather with a few more sunbreaks between showers. Really a not too bad of a day minus the occasional shower or brief downpour. High of 46°

Monday: Periods of light rain. High of 49°

Tuesday: An extremely stormy day with strong winds and heavy rain at times. Winds will gust up to 45mph which is strong enough to bring down a few branches or weak trees. Highs in the mid 40s.

Wednesday: More rain and showers with breezy winds of 20 to 30mph. Overall, a very stormy day and a chilly day too. Highs only around 42 to 45°.

Thursday: Chilly with showers and sunbreaks. Snow levels should stay close to 1000′ which means the higher hills around town could see some slushy snow during the morning hours. Highs 41 – 43°.

Fri – Mon (Jan 12th – 15th): As we stand right now, this entire stretch of days appears to have a pretty high chance for widespread snowfall along with very cold temperatures. Too far out to know specifics, so look for more details in updates to come. Currently, I’m calling for highs in the lower 30s with lows in the teens or 20s. I think most of us see at least 1 to 3 inches of snow at some point during this time frame, and don’t be shocked to see things change further. We will be dealing with a bitterly cold arctic airmass, and depending on how close it gets to us, we could be looking at some significant winter weather in terms of not only snowfall, but extreme cold as well. It could also warm up too… Just stay tuned for more updates in the coming days as a lot can change when we are looking 6 plus days out.

I rely a bit on charts like this one below to help with forecast confidence. The best way to look at this chart is to first notice the dates on the bottom. Time goes from left to right (just like how we read). Next, we have the horizontal lines which also are read from left to right. Each line represents a possible outcome in terms of snowfall for Salem. These are 24 hour running totals. The basic concept you should look for is agreement. The more horizontal lines showing snowfall around the same time frame, the higher the chance is we actually get snow. I’ll try and share an updated edition of this chart in a day or two to help compare and see if things are trending snowier or not so snowy. By the way, ignore the grays for the most part. I usually interpret gray to mean 1000 foot snow levels – so snow maybe in the hills, but not likely in Salem. Look for the blues, purples, and pinks.

The Cascades

As mentioned in the previous post, the Cascades are getting hammered, and will continue to get hammered with feet of snow by the time next week ends.

The Coast and Coast Range

Waves will peak in intensity Tuesday. Maximum wave heights look to be 35 to 45 feet that day along our coastline! Wednesday they should still be going strong coming in above 30 feet. The rest of the week should feature more typical wave heights, but with the “King Tides” later next week, the chance for coastal flooding is certainly higher than normal. Be extra careful if you are out along the beaches next week.

Meanwhile, snow could fall in the Coast Range both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Travel over the Coast Range should be mostly snow free during the daylight hours though.

So much going on, and a ton of wild wintry potential, so look for more updates regularly as things unfold.

Stay safe, and happy weekend!!

Happy new year to you all! We have endured a pretty gray and dreary winter so far. Plenty of rainy days, and when it hasn’t been raining, it feels like fog has ruled the day. Very few clear crisp winter days for sure. It’s also been a pretty boring month weatherwise. No big storms, no snow, cold, ice, wind, floods – nothing really, but this is about to change. I’m watching multiple storms which are set to impact us beginning on Saturday and lasting through next week. I’m also watching the potential for much colder weather. Nothing for sure yet, but we will be in the correct type of weather pattern for valley snow if things line up just right. A far cry from the damp and foggy weather we have seen the past 5 weeks.

Highlights

1.)  Thursday will be a damp/gray day. Maybe a few sunbreaks mixed in, but for the most part it will be a cloudy with showers at times.

2.) Friday stands the best shot at being totally dry. Maybe even a few sunbreaks during the afternoon as we sit in between storms. Highs 46 to 50°.

3.) The storm moving in early Saturday morning will have some heavier rain with it along with gusty winds. PM showers, downpours, and sunbreaks. Overall a stormy day.

4.) Sunday will feature showers and sunbreaks with some heavier downpours at times and maybe some hail mixed in with some of the heavier downpours.

5.) Additional showers Monday.

6.) A stronger storm system rolls in Tuesday through Wednesday bringing more rain, downpours, and gusty winds.

7.) The really juicy and wild news is we have the potential to see snow at some point between Thursday and Sunday of next week here in the Willamette Valley and even along the coast. Too far away to know details, but it is clear that much colder air will be dropping in from the north later next week and moisture might come with it. I’m watching things like a hawk, and will of course have more updates as time goes on. 

The Cascades

All these colder storm systems will finally bring some good, heavy snowfall for our mountains, and with the added bonus of no warm rainstorms in sight afterwards to wash it all away. Great news for the snowpack and for snow recreation! :) Hoodoo has a base of 8 inches as of Wednesday night, so let’s see how much more they have by next week….

Fri: Good travel day. Dry passes, and nothing much going on.

Sat: Very snowy with gusty winds. Terrible travel day. 12 to 18 inches of snow above 2000′.

Sun & Mon: Snow showers both days: Not real great travel days, but improved over Saturday. 12 to 16 inches for the two days above 2000′.

Tue & Wed: Heavy snow returns to the mountains along with gusty winds making for two more terrible travel days. An additional 18 to 24 inches of snow up in the Cascades above 2000 feet. Snow levels could drop low enough to impact the Coast Range Wednesday, but still too far out to know for sure.

Thu – Sun (Jan 11th – 14th): A long ways out, but expect a good chance for at least some snow over this time frame as colder air moves in. Excellent skiing conditions for the 3 day weekend!!! 🙂

Stay tuned!!!

We’ve had some pretty tame weather lately, and looking ahead, I still don’t see much weather action for us as we head into Christmas. All the riveting and exciting details below. ;)

Fri: Morning rain will transition into a few PM showers. Chilly. Highs in the mid 40s. Mountain snow in the Cascades through Friday night.

Sat: Improving travel conditions in the Cascades with afternoon sun. Highways like Santiam Pass should quickly clear up making for a good travel day. Lows will start out close to freezing, and highs around 45° here in Salem.

Christmas Eve: Another chilly day with lows starting out below freezing, and highs topping out around 42 – 44°. Dry during the day with rain chances increasing around sunset and lasting through the night. There is a chance for some ice in the Columbia River Gorge along highway I-84. Keep an eye on road conditions this day if you have to travel through there. 

Christmas Day: A chance of showers with temps in the 40s.

Next week: No large storm systems for the moment. Currently, it appears this will be a mild week with highs in the 50s and chances for some rain each day. Again, no big storms necessarily here; however, powerful storms off our coast will make for some fun wave watching as maximum wave heights bounce between 25 and 35 feet beginning Christmas Day and lasting through next week.

Enjoy this time of year the best you can, and remember what is really important! Don’t stress over the little worldly things. 

Stay safe! :)

It’s been awhile since the last update, but the action is about to pick up. Let’s do a quick check on how things have been going first. Last November we were seeing feet of snow in the mountains during the month of November. As of Wednesday morning, Hoodoo had 0 inches of snow on the ground. Here’s a pic from earlier showing the bare ground up there.

This has been for two reasons. One is we are currently drier than normal for the month of November as the map below shows. Actually it shows precip departures from average from over the past 30 days, so the last few days of October are included, but you get the picture.

Overall, much of the country has been slightly drier. The warmer temperatures accompanying storms earlier in the month is the second reason for the basically non existent snowpack. This doesn’t mean the whole winter will go this way, and don’t let media hype convince you otherwise. In fact, I think it’s time for an update on the forecast to see what’s coming up for our region.

Highlights

Thu: Cloudy to start the day with showers and rain by mid afternoon. This will mark the end of our nice dry streak we’ve had going.

Fri: More showers with breezy winds at times. Winds gusting up to 35mph

Sat: Periods of rain and breezy. Wind gusts of 25 to 35mph early dying down to 15 to 20mph later in the day.

Sun: Heavy rain much of the day, and breezy at times. Very poor travel conditions this day.

Mon & Tue: Periods of rain. Possibility exists that we could see some dry periods mixed in between, but overall a wet couple of days.

Wed: Heavy rain moves back over our region. This day has potential to also be a real soaker. Watching for flooding too as the rainfall totals will really start to add up as the week goes on.

Thu: More regular wet weather returns with snow levels finally coming back down to pass levels.

I will provide additional updates in the coming days as the potential for flooding will be elevated over the next week or so. Flooding along streams and creeks will of course be possible; however, localized flooding could take place in low laying areas, streets with clogged drains, and locations with pour drainage. All of the areas mentioned above will be at risk for flooding during the periods of heavier rain. Sunday and Wednesday currently look like they will be the rainiest days, but Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday bare watching.

Being straightforward with you I expect Salem to pick up somewhere between 5 and 6 inches of rain between now and next Thursday – possibly even more. These are significant totals for such a short time frame which is why the flooding issue is looking like it could be a real problem.

The Cascades

Some light snow Thursday with 2 to 4 inches. Friday and Saturday will be really awful though. Those two days will feature hands down the biggest snowstorm of the season for our mountain passes. Heavy snow with strong winds will make for dangerous travel conditions Friday through early Sunday morning.

Temperatures warm up dramatically Sunday afternoon with the warmer rain storm, and just like that, much of the snow will melt away fairly quickly. Fortunately the reservoirs have a lot of space in them at the moment, and they should be able to hold a lot of the incoming water which will greatly limit the major flood potential.

The coast and Coast Range

Travel conditions will be especially bad Saturday, and even more so on Sunday. Both mudslides and coastal flooding are likely in some area Sunday through Wednesday. Not a very good time to travel a bunch. Rainfall totals look to surpass 10 inches for some of the coastal and Coast Range locations now through next Thursday. That will almost certainly send rivers like the Wilson or Nehalem close to or over flood stage.

Alright, hang on and prepare for a whole bunch of rain! We will see how close to that 5 to 6 inches of rain we actually get, but confidence is high that we will see significant rainfall totals.