After more than ten days of dry weather, rain finally returned Saturday. Showers with a few sunbreaks are on tap for the rest of today. We dry out Monday through Wednesday. A weak storm on Thursday, and then a stronger storm likely for next Friday night and Saturday. Details below.
Details
Today: Showers with brief sunbreaks in between. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50°.
Mon – Wed: Fog and low clouds are likely each of these days. Highs will vary though depending on fog. Best guess would be near 40 give or take a few degrees. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 28 to 32 degree range .
Thu: Dry start and then rainy and damp in the afternoon. Lots of cloud cover and chilly. High 45°.
Fri: A mostly dry day in between storm systems. Lows will start out near freezing thanks to the clearing skies, and highs will only reach the mid 40s. Rain moves in Friday night.
Sat: Watching the potential for a much stronger storm to impact the region this day. I’ll be watching closely with updates to follow. Right now, high winds along the coast seem pretty likely, but depending on the strength and track of the storm, strong winds could also impact the valley. Wintry weather in the Columbia River Gorge is another possibility with this storm, so stay tuned!
November 2024
In other (old news), November 2024 has come to a close, and here are the stats.
November was slightly warmer than average at 1.3 degrees above normal. November was also wetter than average despite the dry end to the month. We ended up with 7.17″ of rain which is 1.22″ above normal or 120% of average.
Nothing super remarkable happened in November. The highlights for our immediate region would be the early snowpack and start of the ski season. Other than that, nothing real big took place. We avoided the worst of the “bomb cyclone.” We also were spared the heaviest rain. Southern Oregon was not so lucky and experienced some flooding mid month.
Overall a little warmer and wetter than average. At the national level, one can see that much of the country was on the warmer side with the intermountain region and southwest being the main exception.
How do we stand so far this December? Well, temperature wise it has very much flipped with the eastern US experiencing some extremely cold weather so far this month.
As a weather guy, something interesting I notice are the pockets of below average temperatures found out west surrounded by much warmer temperature anomalies. The Willamette Valley, some of the valleys east of the Cascades, and the Snake River Valley in Idaho are all running colder than normal due to the strong inversions we have been seeing. Meanwhile, the mountains around us have been warmer than average. Goes to show what some pesky fog and low clouds can do.
That’s all for today, but keep an eye out for a storm update later this week. Stay safe and healthy out there! 🙂
We are now entering into what will be a long stretch of dry weather. It may not feel dry with the cold damp fog hanging over our heads, but no additional rain is expected between now and at least next Wednesday (December 4th). Excellent news for people traveling by road! Our dry spell will be marked with fog that lasts for long periods of the day, or in some cases the entire day, occasional sunbreaks, and chilly temperatures.
Expect widespread frost possible each morning over these next several days with many of us seeing our first hard freeze of the year at some point this week. These strong ridge setups in the dead of winter are tricky because if the fog holds then temperatures can also hold steady throughout the day, but if the airmass manages to dry out a little then we could see a wider rang of temperatures.
For now I’m going with lows of 28 to 33 degrees – again depending on the extent of fog, and highs in the low 40s. Today will actually probably be our “mildest” day of the week as we are just entering into this inversion pattern. Our temperature as of 10:45AM is already a “balmy” 43°.
Remember, in these inversion setups both the coast and the Cascades are often times clear and sunny. Not warm, but escaping the fog can be nice. Here’s a snapshot of Newport Bay courtesy of Koin News and the Oregon Coast Aquarium.
Next we have a beautiful sunny picture from Hoodoo earlier this morning. Brilliant sunshine up above the inversion, and with 34 inches of snow at their base they are all set to open this Friday per their website. A great start to the year!!
God created a pretty incredible world, and I hope we can both take care of it and enjoy it. Stay safe, have fun, enjoy the people around you, and happy Thanksgiving!!
We are on day 15 in a row with measurable precip, so yes, it’s been a soggy November, and we have a couple more soggy days to go before drying out. In fact we should dry out real nicely just in time for Thanksgiving with dry weather leading up to the holiday, dry weather during, and mostly dry afterwards making for easier travel easier, and safer Cascade passes. One brief exception to the completely dry weekend would be a quick hitting batch of showers Friday. Details further below, but first, let’s start with a recap of our weather lately.
This past week went mostly to plan with the whole “bomb cyclone,” but with a few unfortunate blips. My forecast from last Sunday stated details for Wednesday verbatim as “Showers with some extended dry times mixed in during the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s.” Our high temperature was 53°, so a hit there, and the max wind gust in Salem with the storm was 38mph which fell right in with my forecast as well – another hit. Unfortunately, this is where the hits end. The “extended dry times mixed in…” didn’t exactly go to plan. For some of you, Wednesday was basically dry all day long, but for others, it was soaker.
A band of steady precip trained close to the same position for almost 6 hours Wednesday! The forecasting models I use hinted at this happening, and I knew it was possible, but nothing showed it being quite that consistent. Most of west Salem, Amity, McMinnville, Dallas all had a mainly dry day; however, parts of south Salem, Stayton, Turner, and Albany experienced rain for much of the afternoon and early evening hours.
This is just one of the reasons why forecasting snow is so tough here. Imagine if that had been snow instead of rain. We would have been talking about a major snowstorm in Albany and even in parts of Salem while other parts of town got almost nothing, but since it was just another “rainy” day, nobody really cared if the forecast was off a little. So remember that the next time we have a tricky snow event to forecast.
Forecast details
Looking ahead it appears today and Monday will be a continuation of this chilly, cloudy, and rather damp weather. Highs today and tomorrow will top out only around 49 or 50° with periods of rain and occasional showers.
Tue: A good number of sunbreaks, and a chance for a couple brief showers.
Wed – Mon: An extended stretch of dry or at least mostly dry weather. This is perfect timing for travel plans, holiday activities, and maybe putting up Christmas lights! It will be a real treat to have several days of dry weather. Expect some very cold nights with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, and chilly afternoons despite the sunshine as highs range between 44 and 48°.
There is a chance of a few showers Friday, but nothing big, long lasting, or real impactful. With rain increasing the further north you go into southwest Washington. This should be the only exception in what could be a fairly dry (for winter) stretch of days.
The Cascades
The Cascades are having an almost historic beginning to the snow season with Hoodoo reporting a base of 32 inches.
The snow water equivalent, which is essentially how much liquid water would be left behind if all the snow in one spot were to be melted down, is currently at near record levels for this time of year. As you can see, the entire state is doing incredibly well!
An excellent start to the ski season, and with another 5 to 10 inches on the way before Tuesday ends I can see a lot of people getting out and enjoying the slopes this holiday weekend!
I’ll continue to keep an extra close eye on the forecast. We have had a pretty active stretch of weather lately, and while things are calming down for the moment, the jet stream is still pretty active out in the pacific, cold air is building to the north, and it is only November…
Lots to cover tonight (Sunday night) in the weather department, so let’s dive right in.
Short version
Showers and downpours for Monday. Chilly temperatures will lead to snowfall in the Coast Range Monday through Tuesday morning. A powerful storm arrives Tuesday evening bringing strong winds to the coast, gusty winds in the valley, and periods of moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall will be frequent Thursday through Sunday leading to at least some flooding. More details below.
Details
Monday: Showers, sunbreaks, and some heavier downpours are likely. Morning lows in the upper 30s, and a high of only 45°.
Tuesday: Showers transition into steady rain late in the afternoon or early evening hours. Gusty winds 25 to 35mph are also expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. High of 49°.
Wednesday: Showers with some extended dry times mixed in during the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s.
Thu – Sun: There is no one big storm I’m watching for the time being, but rather multiple waves of rain and mountain snow which are predicted to traverse the region during this time. The impacts include the possibility for strong winds, higher chances for some creek or river flooding, but no major flooding, and no flooding on the Willamette is expected this week. Other impacts to be expected include ponding on roadways where leaves have clogged drains, localized flooding in general low lying areas and typical flood prone areas, and continued snowfall up in the mountains. Highs ranging from 50 to 55°.
Sunday (November 17th) was the 8th day in a row with measurable rainfall, and when its total gets officially recorded we will have well over 4 inches of rain for the month so far putting us well above normal. Seasonal creeks are beginning to fill up, and rivers around the area have been slowly, but steadily rising. It’s for those reasons I’m a little more concerned about flooding than usual despite the lack of any major rainstorms in the current forecast.
I had the opportunity to hike Silver Creek Falls today and I got to see firsthand how high those creeks are flowing, which again, adds to my elevated concern for at least some flooding this week.
The jet stream is extremely active right now, and appears to stay active the for foreseeable future with no sign of any long dry or calm stretches of weather. I will do my very best to keep you all updated, especially if I see something concerning or impactful.
The Cascades will continue to see heavy snowfall now through early Wednesday morning before the snow level rises with the warm sector of the Wednesday storm. This estimated snowfall map shows upwards of 24 to 30 inches falling above 4000 feet between this evening and Wednesday morning!
There you have it! No boring weather here for the time being. Stay safe and have a great Monday!
As promised, this week has been very winter like with lots of rain, chilly temperatures, and at times, gusty winds. Below is a county map of Oregon showing total rainfall over the past 7 days. Most of the Willamette Valley has picked up around 3 inches of rain since last Saturday!
The other big change over the past week has been the well advertised increase in mountain snow. Hoodoo had a 15 inch base early this afternoon with 4 to 8 inches of new snow expected this evening through Sunday morning.
Looking ahead
Tonight: Showers increasing through the evening. Lows tonight in the mid 40s.
Sunday: Mostly dry with some a little bit of sun, and only a slight chance of a shower. Highs into the upper 50s.
Monday: Rain returns as a quick moving cold front sweeps in from the northwest. PM sunbreaks and showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Tuesday (Election Day): Highs around 57° with a fair amount of sunbreaks, and a slight chance for a brief shower or two.
Wed – Fri: Lots of fog. This time of year can be incredibly foggy, especially after having so much rain. Expect widespread fog each of these three days. Lows will likely bottom out in the 35 to 38° range and highs 49 to near 50 degrees assuming we get some afternoon sunbreaks. Lows could dip to freezing for areas that receive a little more clearing at night.
Next weekend: Rain appears likely, but obviously subject to change being several days out.
No big storms on the horizon at this time, and nothing real out of the ordinary for early November. No signs of any big warm rainstorms to wash away our early snowpack either as temperatures remain a little cooler than normal in the coming days.
October 2024
October may have ended on a cooler note, but overall it was quite mild being 2.8 degrees warmer than normal. As far as precipitation goes, we finished the month above average with a total of 3.8″ to kick off our new water year. Average for October is 3.47″. Over 2 inches of that rain fell during the final week of the month.
The coming week is going to feel extremely winterlike as three separate storms move through bringing periods of widespread rainfall, mountain snow, showers, a few thundershowers, and highs in the 50s all week long.
Below is a map showing the 500mb heights compared to normal for Sunday through Thursday of this coming week ( a five day average). Basically, this is a reflection of the weather 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. Blue means lower pressure and colder than usual, and the orange and red colors indicate higher pressure and warmer than average conditions.
This is a classic La Nina pattern with the cold trough centered directly over the pacific northwest, and it’s the reason why we tend to see more snow opportunities during La Nina. Here we see a large ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Ocean to our west, and on the backside of that ridge (where Oregon is located at) cold storm systems slide down from the gulf of Alaska. This same pattern in December through February would bring snow chances to Salem, but since it’s still October, we are “off the hook” for them moment. Just watch for this pattern to reoccur as the winter goes on. For now, let’s focus on the week ahead. Here’s the next 7 days with additional details below:
Saturday: Lots of clouds with showers at times all day long. High of 64°. A much stronger cold front moves through Saturday night bringing steady rain (heavy at times), some gusty winds to 30mph, and colder temperatures. Sunday night could be a real soaker!
Sunday: Showers and sunbreaks. A few showers could be quite heavy. A brief thunderstorm is also possible along with small hail.
Monday: A second day of showers and sunbreaks as we remain under a cold upper level low. An chilly unstable airmass coupled with sunbreaks will provide more opportunities for downpours and thundershowers.
Tuesday: Perhaps one of the driest days of the coming week, but no less winterlike. Lows will start out in the upper 30s. Brrrrrrrrr!! Widespread fog is also fairly likely. Fog or no fog, some afternoon sunbreaks should pop through. While the vast majority of Tuesday should be dry, I can’t rule out a stray shower or two, especially near the Coast Range or Cascade foothills.
Wednesday: The day begins chilly and dry, but with increasing clouds. Steady rain moves in during the afternoon.
Thursday: Another day of showers and sunbreaks with a few stronger thundershowers mixed in.
Impacts on day to day life
This coming week will be soggy, cold, gray, and very winter like and that may feel like quite a change from what we have seen lately. The second impact this week is the potential for localized street flooding with some of the stronger thundershowers and downpours this week. I looked back at my own personal weather records and I see October is one of the top months for localized flooding due to the combination of both heavy rain and clogged street drains. This week could feature more of that.
Third, don’t be surprised to see a report or two of a funnel cloud or weak tornado between now and this time next week. Oregon is not known for tornados, but we do have a sort of “tornado season” when weak tornados or funnel clouds become more likely. The active and chilly pattern we will be in this week is conducive to seeing funnel cloud activity.
The image below is barrowed from Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon (the best weather team in Oregon other than yours truly haha). It shows our “tornado season” (if we can call it that) peaks in October. Keep in mind the tornados we have are almost always extremely weak compared to those found in Texas and the Midwest, but still, I found this a little interesting.
Finally, the Cascades will see multiple rounds of snow this week. Monday and Thursday will probably be the snowiest days up in the passes with 4 to 8 inches Sunday night through Monday, and an additional 4 to 8 inches Thursday. Let’s check on how these locations look a week from now, but imagine they will be pretty wintry by then!! 🙂 The image on the right is the lodge at Hoodoo, and the left image is the top of the Manzanita chairlift at Hoodoo.
If you want the forecast, then read this top portion, but if you’re in a reading mood than check out the rest of this post. It’s always an exciting time of year as a forecaster around here. Fall is upon us, we are entering into our storm season, and soon we will be entering into the time of year when snow and cold also become possible. I have a wide gamut of details and fun facts below, but first, the forecast.
Expect showers and sunbreaks on Thursday with increasing amounts of sun later in the day. Highs in the upper 50s to 60°.
Friday looks dry and partly cloudy. High of 59°. Saturday should be a super nice fall day. Patchy fog to begin the morning followed by afternoon sunshine and highs in the low 70s.
Sunday should also be quite mild and nice, and will likely top 70 degrees again. This weekend will probably be our final set of 70 degree days for the season, so enjoy them!! Rain moves in Sunday evening and lasts through Monday. Highs on Monday in the mid 60s.
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week look dry, with sunny afternoons, but chilly and possibly foggy mornings. Lows will also be the coldest they have been all fall down to the upper 30s.
No big storms, no major cold spells, and nothing unusual for the time being.
Weather statistics and the winter ahead
October 1st is the beginning of the new “weather year,” also known as our “water year” for most locations in the western US. It makes sense to have our rainy season fall into one “year” for record keeping as opposed to interrupting our rainy season every January 1st at the start of our calendar year.
To begin with, I wanted to see how this past year compared with previous years in regards to both precip and temperatures. I also wanted to provide a few thoughts for our upcoming winter season.
Let’s start with the precipitation. Check out this graph showing total precipitation for each water year in Salem Oregon going back to the winter of 2003/2004.
The primary take away is that Salem is rainy lol! It is interesting though how we get our rain one way or another year after year after year regardless of how much the climate may be changing. In fact, one could go back to the late 1800s and early 1900s when our official records began, and you would see extremely similar totals.
For the time being, there is no trend in any direction with precip. There are a few dry years mixed in where we didn’t reach 30 inches, but notice how they are always proceeded by and or followed by a wetter year. Our rain is what keeps this area so beautiful, so remember that later this winter when the rain starts to grow old.
Next let’s look at the total number of days per winter where highs stayed below 40°.
The first thing to point out is the data for 02/03 is not missing. That sad, sad winter really did not have even a single sub 40 degree day. I remember that pathetic winter as a kid. Not even one snowflake fell at our house the entire winter. A huge disappointment for someone who loves snow so much.
The second thing I noticed was how it’s been awhile since we have had a really cold winter, and by that I mean a winter where we experience at least 10 or more days below 40 degrees. Sure, last winter provided us with some extreme cold; however, looking at the total number of days below 40 reveals just how brief and isolated the cold spell was in what was actually a very mild winter. Compare last winter to the winter of 2016/2017 which delivered snow and ice multiple times from December through March, and had a grand total of 22 days with highs below 40°. Perhaps this winter is the year we finally see some prolonged cold again.
The third item I wish to point out is the fact that three of the four lowest totals on the chart were El Nino winters. Currently, we are entering a weak La Nina (more on that below), so I believe we will see at least several days this winter where the thermometer does not reach 40 degrees.
Overall there’s definitely more variability when it comes to cold weather around here than with the precip, but now it’s time to unburden ourselves from what has been. Did I use that phrase correctly??? Anyway, time to talk about what could be in store this coming La Nina winter.
Our up coming winter
We are entering a weak La Nina which means the waters off the west coast of South America are cooler than normal. There are a few other regions of the ocean I look at when finding analog years to compare to. Generally, I look for past winters which had similar ocean conditions as it’s the oceans which really drive our weather.
The map below is a composite of surface temperature anomalies for all the years which had similar ocean surface temperatures. Darker blues are much colder than normal areas, and the red and oranges are much warmer than normal areas.
There is a clear signal for colder weather in the pacific northwest during December through February. This tells me we have an elevated chance for colder weather and longer lasting cool weather too. No guarantees, but the deck is stacked in our favor for cooler weather.
Next we have precip anomalies for the same set of previous winters. There is a clear trend for western Oregon to experience a wetter winter when all is said and done.
Big take aways
I expect our upcoming winter to provide more opportunities for lowland snow. This is something which can be misleading. More opportunities doesn’t always equal lots of snow for a given location in the Willamette Valley. It just means you will likely see snow in the forecast more often than compared to last winter (an El Nino winter), and with those increased opportunities comes increased chances of scoring some decent snowfall.
Last winter really was quite mild with only one big exception. That exception of course being the extremely cold and intense winter storm we saw in January. For nearly 5 days our temperatures stayed below freezing. During that time frame we experienced the sleet/ice storm followed by a few days of very cold weather and then a brief freezing rain event that Tuesday; however, the rest of the winter was fairly mild both in the months leading up to that storm, and in the weeks to follow. I distinctly remember sharing this photo at the end of last December revealing the dismal snowpack at Timberline due to the warmer weather.
This leads directly into my second point which is I expect the ski season and mountain snowpack to do fairly well this winter. La Nina keeps us on the cooler side of the jet stream more often allowing the snowpack to build up at a better rate. The chart above reminds us just how awful the snowpack was for much of last winter, and that was due to us being on the warmer side of the jet stream for a majority of the ski season.
The final piece (which I’ve shared before) is how a La Nina winters often provide us with the correct setup for major flooding on the Willamette River. I’m not predicting it, but it’s also not a coincidence that the vast majority of our highest river crests on the Willamette have occurred during a La Nina winter. I have shared this before, and it’s still up to date I believe.
It’s also a really good reminder to be ready and prepared for a natural disaster as much as possible, and assume you may be on your own for a period of time following a flood or any other type of disaster for that matter.
The main message is expect more opportunities for snow, higher chances of seeing cold weather, a decent ski season and mountain snowpack, and an elevated chance at seeing major flooding.
Stay safe, stay healthy, and enjoy the weather regardless of what it brings! 🙂
Bryan Weather Alerts 