Category: Salem Area Forecast

Bad news

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been several days since I last posted. Work, school, and life keep me busy, plus, the weather is really not doing anything exciting. Sadly, things have trended drier and drier since my last forecast. I understand many people enjoy the sunny weather; however, we need rain and mountain snow, and if the dry weather continues to dominate our weather, then we could be looking at some severe drought conditions this summer. Yes, we still have all of February, March, & April, so I’m not too concerned yet, but the ski resorts are missing out on valuable income with each passing day, and could really use more snow asap.

The current snow water equivalent map looks like this. Basically, this is a map showing the percentage of water in the current snowpack compared to where we should be at this time of year.

Well below average across the entire state. The drought monitor on the other hand does not look nearly as bad right now, and that is largely due to the big rainstorms we saw back in December.

Forecast details

1.) Dry weather continues through at least next Tuesday or Wednesday.

2.) Nights remain very cold. Salem was 24 degrees this morning. Brrrr! Lows continue to dip well into the 20s. A reinforcing shot of cool, but very dry air moves south from Canada Friday. Unfortunately, it will be a dry airmass, so no mountain snow. Just more cold clear nights and sunny days.

3.) Next chance for rain doesn’t arrive until at least next Monday or Tuesday. Rain chances increase quite a bit after the middle of next week as indicated by this chart below:

You can see the dramatic increase in members showing rainfall around the 28th and 29th. Let’s hope those don’t dry out, and let’s hope they end up being cooler systems for some mountain snow.

One final thought.

Navigating truth and reality versus scary, clickbait, or agenda driven biased information can be tricky online. This is not a statement as to how much climate change is driven by the actions of humans versus natural cycles. It’s simply a statement to help inform and keep my wonderful viewers in touch with the reality side of news and information. This type of dry, snowless winter has happened before, and will happen again. I have some “modern” examples, but there are even records dating back to the early years of Europeans arriving in Oregon of very dry winters “randomly” occurring.

In more modern times, the winter of 1976/1977 stands as the driest on record for many western Oregon locations. Less than an inch of rain fell for the entire month of January that winter, and Salem recorded 68 completely dry days between November through January. Imagine being a ski resort operator that winter or a farmer relying on ground water or seasonal streams to water crops.

These very dry winters happen, and living through them sucks, especially for farmers and people in the snow recreation business, but they do happen. The winter of 2000/2001 was another extremely dry year as well, and Salem saw two snowless winters in the early 2000s (2002/2003 and 2004/2005).

Will we get a February snow event? Maybe, but it is also possible we finally see a completely snowless winter. Portland has been setting a record for most winters in a row with measurable snow for the past few years now. As of last winter, they are at 10 years in a row with measurable snowfall! The previous record was just 7 years.

So yes, things currently look bad, and there’s no guarantee they turn around this season, but such things have happened before, and as of right now, we are not in an unprecedented situation.

If you are wealthy, have lots of extra time on your hands, and love snow, then book a ticket to the North Carolina or Virginia. A massive snow and ice storm is expected over there this coming weekend. Many locations will pick up well over a foot of snow with just this one storm.

Stay safe, and enjoy the beautiful weather the best you can!

Seven more dry days

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Happy Wednesday! Three short highlights for those short on time with more details below.

1.) We’re in the midst of a very calm and low key weather pattern. Temperatures continue to vary each day depending on winds, cloud cover, and fog. Highs ranging from the mid 5os (like we saw just a few days ago) down to the 30s (like we are seeing today). Lows remain more consistent continuing to drop into the upper 20s or low 30s each night. This weather pattern lasts through next Wednesday.

2.) Very strong gusty east winds develop in the Columbia River Gorge Thursday, and last through Sunday. Areas near 205 eastward will be effected the most all the way through the west end of the gorge.

3.) A change to wetter (and possibly colder) weather occurs next Wednesday or Thursday. Too far out for details, but weather models are indicating the large area of high pressure currently over us is going to retrograde (meaning slide west) allowing colder air to approach the Pacific Northwest.

Details

This map below shows what the atmosphere looks like at around 18,000 feet up today.

It’s extremely warm up above us. In summertime, this same pattern would easily give us 90s or even a 100 degree day. See what a difference the sun angel and length of day can make! Instead we are stuck in a cold layer of fog. Look at the satellite image from earlier today.

Fog is stuck in the Willamette Valley while the rest of the state basks in sunshine.

Typically it gets colder higher up you go in an airmass, and that is still true today. The thing is, we have two separate airmasses at play here. The first airmass is our inversion layer. Underneath this blanket of fog, it does get colder the higher up you go, but once you pop out above the fog and enter into the second airmass above us, temperatures warm dramatically. Check out the wild inversion going on right now.

When is the last time you saw Government Camp on Mount Hood more than 20 degrees warmer than Salem? It’s a beautiful day up on the mountain! Santiam Pass is also very mild sitting at a balmy 63°.

If you view this post on the website (instead of the email version), then you can use the slider tool below to show the dramatic change expected next week. The first image shows the atmosphere today. Find Oregon on the map, and notice the very warm anomaly over us represented by the warm brown and deep red colors. The second image shows us what it looks like ten days later – much cooler/colder for sure!

No valley snow predictions yet. Might not snow at all here in the valley, but a colder airmass is on the way for the PNW, and more importantly, additional mountain snow.

Fortunately, we got all that mountain snow last week (24 to 30 inches) allowing resorts to open limited terrain during this long dry stretch. If you are in the snow recreation industry then you know it’s been an extremely tough season though, but help is on the way again. Just need to hang in there for about 7 or 8 more days…

I plan to update you all again once the details for later next week start to come into view. For now, enjoy the week and as always, stay safe out there!

Stormy Wednesday

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

Very short post on this rainy and windy night providing a heads up for what should be a stormy Wednesday and chilly couple of days.

Wednesday in particular looks stormy. Gusty winds to 40mph, small hail, downpours, thunder and lightning, and even some wet snow are all possible Wednesday. Brief sunbreaks between showers, but plan on intense downpours ruling the day. Here’s couple of estimated radar images revealing what looks like a line of heavier rain moving through roughly between 9AM and noon Wednesday. Click for a closer look. 🙂

Snow levels drop to 1000 to 1500 feet Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Coast Range locations and communities up the Santiam River Canyon (Mill City, Gates etc.) could all see a little dusting of wet snow during this time frame. Salem’s high on Thursday will top out only around 43°.

Cascade passes get the brunt of this series of storms with 18 to 26″ of snow falling now through Friday morning. Now through Wednesday night will be the worse travel times, but snow showers continue right into Friday morning before finally tapering off. Hopefully this will be enough for ski resorts to open up.

We have a mostly dry weekend ahead for the mountains which would make getting to the snow and ski parks much easier come Friday afternoon through Sunday.

Stay safe and happy Wednesday! 🙂

Tracking several storms

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The weather action is picking up with several different storms arriving over the next week. I’ve got a nice new extended forecast for you all. These graphics are better at communicating the time of day rain can be expected. For example, you can see Tuesday morning should be dry, but rain will move in during the afternoon. Remember you can click on images for a closer view. 🙂

Highlights

Snow levels dip pretty low for the first time this winter Thursday morning through early Friday morning. During this time period, snow showers could fall in the Coast Range and other foothill locations like Silver Creek Falls.

It will also be a wet week. No flooding, but I expect multiple rounds of rain and heavy showers in the coming week. Estimated precip totals show a widespread soaking over the course of the next several days which is good news.

The Cascades

Perhaps even better news is that these storms will bring the snowiest weather the Cascades have seen all winter. It’s been one of the worst ski seasons ever, and the snowpack is severely behind schedule, but this parade of storms will finally bring much needed snow and hopefully enough to open more terrain for the snow parks.

This next map shows estimated snowfall totals through Friday the 9th. Ignore the snow showing up in the Willamette Valley as it tends to overdo the low snow levels. The main takeaways are: lots of mountain snow (3 to maybe 4 feet of it), and snow levels will be low enough for the Coast Range and foothills to see a little bit of snow.

The Cascades will be snow covered the majority of the time Sunday through Friday. Best times to travel the Cascades without too much snowfall would be today, Sunday late morning and afternoon, and Monday through Tuesday morning. Tuesday evening through Thursday night look to be the very snowiest timeframe with heavy snow likely in the passes.

Bottom line is it’s going to be cooler, there will be plenty of valley rain, and (finally) lots of mountain snow. Take care, happy new year again, and stay safe out there!

A few travel concerns

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A brief post during this festive week between Christmas and New Year’s Day. No fun charts or maps today. Just wanted to highlight a few travel concerns as we look towards the new year.

The first area of concern is the Columbia River Gorge and Basin between Thursday morning and Friday morning. A light wintry mix of freezing rain or sleet should begin around 10AM to 1PM (from south to north) on Thursday. Freezing rain ends early Friday afternoon.

Locations I’m thinking could be impacted by ice include but are not limited to: highway 197 around Dufur, 97 near Wasco, and I-84 out towards Hermiston (maybe Pendleton), and as far west as Cascade Locks. Warmer air at the surface moves in late Friday afternoon or evening ending the threat for ice in the Columbia River Basin.

The coast is our second area of concern where higher than usual waves will coincide with the “King Tides” on Saturday. Could be decent wave watching weather Saturday afternoon, but use caution as wind gusts reach 40 to 50mph and heavy showers reduce visibility at times along our rugged coastline.

Salem area forecast

WED: Another very cold morning. Lows around 26 – 28° and highs in the low to mid 40s. Increasing clouds, but dry.

THU (New Year’s Day): Mostly cloudy and chilly. High only near 40°. Light rain during the afternoon.

FRI: Mostly cloudy with a light shower or two. Milder, high of 52°.

SAT: Showers throughout the day and windy. Wind gusts 30 to 40mph. High around 54°.

SUN: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and sunbreaks. High near 50°.

MON: A mostly dry day, but plenty of clouds around. Highs in the upper 40s.

Enjoy the extra time off for those of you who get some extra time off. Party and drive safely, and happy new year!!! 🙂

Wind impacts for Christmas Eve

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Confidence is remarkably low for being less than 24 hours from this storm, but confidence is growing in a very impactful wind scenario. Please read through all of these important headlines concerning the potential wind storm for Wednesday.

1.) I’m forecasting wind gusts of 45 to 55mph here in the Willamette Valley. This is plenty strong enough to cause power outages and bring down more trees. This will be a very short hitting, but powerful storm. Look at this forecasting chart for Salem. I have arrows pointing to the day and time columns, the surface wind gusts, and the precip column.

This storm is not a rain maker at all, and it will feel like it came out of nowhere, and will be over within a few hours, but the damage will already be done. This model actually had even higher wind gusts in its previous run, and has been bouncing around some. Right now, 45 to 55mph for the Salem area is a good bet with higher gusts still on the table.

2.) Plan on the possibility of doing Christmas Eve and maybe Christmas without power. This sucks I know, but it’s what I see as a real possibility.

3.) Plan on some of the coastal highways and highways going over the Cascades closing tomorrow during/after the storm due to downed trees.

4.) Copied from my last update, but still very relevant: Understand that highways may close Wednesday and stay closed through at least part of Christmas day due to downed trees or power lines. Again, please consider traveling sooner rather than later if you have the option to avoid closed highways. If you end up leaving early and nothing happens, I doubt you will regret it, but if you miss celebrating Christmas with family because every highway crossing the Cascades is closed, then it’s a much sadder story.

5.) Please prepare for power outages Christmas Eve and possibly lasting longer. Please plan on some road and highway closures Christmas Eve and possibly lasting longer.

Adding to this, I don’t think you will be sad if you plan and are prepared for power outages and they don’t happen, but you will be frustrated if you’re not prepared and they do take place.

Like always, feel free to search elsewhere for additional details, but you may struggle to find more. Look at what the National Weather Service is putting out today. Talk about a wide range of possibilities…

6.) Unsure if I will have a final update before the storm. I suppose the only reason to have another would be if a more severe outcome is looking more likely; otherwise, please be ready, be safe, and hopefully we get through this with minimal damage.