This past October was odd in a few ways. Salem received rainfall 18 days this October; however, the vast majority of that rain was not heavy enough to give us a “wet month.” We ended up with 78% of our normal rainfall at 2.71″.
As far as temperature goes, it was a near average October. at 0.3° below normal. There was no widespread freeze this month with our coldest temp only being 35° on the 12th. We have had some cold October weather in recent years, but not this year. There were no significant warm spells either. In fact, our warmest temp was just 73° on the 3rd.
On October 24th and 25th a powerful low pressure spun up several hundred miles offshore. There were no historic impacts right here as it was several hundred miles away; however, the storm still brought some locally heavy rain and a solid 24 hours of south/southwest winds which gusted between 30 and 45mph right here in Salem. This lead to some power outages and a few downed tree branches and limbs. Massive waves were also common along the coast during this storm. Below is an image from Mark Nelson over at Fox12 Oregon. It shows the strength and path of both “bomb cyclones” which effected the Pacific Northwest. Had the storms moved up the coast “inside” (east) of the red line then we would have seen significant damage, so I guess you could say we dodged a couple of big bullets with these two storms.
Satellite image of the first big storm on the 21st.
SUMMARY
All in all it was a fairly typical October with a mostly dry first half, and then the rainy season showed up right on cue the second half of the month. Those two big cyclone storms were hands down the highlights of this month otherwise nothing too crazy.
I figured it was time to bring back the monthly reports. These are definitely a fun way of documenting the month just in general as well as highlighting any major weather events from the month. If you are looking for the forecast then skip down to the bottom. 😉
September 2021 Summary
Much of September 2021 was actually very warm and summer like which is common for September; however, a few good soakings during the second half of the month gave Salem a rainfall total of 2.89″ which is a whopping 198% of our monthly average! This chart below shows the percentage of total precip for each month here in Salem going back to last October.
This image above shows the upper level pattern which brought Salem steady rain on the 27th.
At 1.9° above normal, September ended up being Salem’s 6th warmer than average month in a row in what has been a fairly warm year. This chart shows the number of degrees above or below normal each month has been since last October.
Looking ahead
October is off to a fairly cool and dry start. As of today (Saturday), Salem is sitting at 3.7°F below normal for the month, but with only .19″ of rain. From looking at the long range charts, it seems obvious the cooler weather is here to stay.
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
1.) Sunday’s going to be a typical shower and sunbreak type of day with small hail and brief downpours possible. Very cool air with this storm will bring a few inches of snow to the Cascades Sun night and Monday morning.
2.) Plan on Monday being mostly dry with just a very slight chance of a PM shower. The cool airmass behind this system will set us up for our coldest lows of the year Tuesday morning with frost in some of the outlying areas around the valley.
3.) A weak storm system moves though Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing a few showers here and there, but nothing big.
4.) Besides the nice weather we are seeing today, next Tue, Thu, Fri, and Sat all look dry for outdoor projects and adventures. No sign of any late season warmth to go with that dry weather unfortunately as we seem to be locked into a cooler pattern for the foreseeable future.
Number 1.) The sizzling hot start to the month. Salem set a new record for June 1st with a high of 97°! The heat didn’t last long before we cooled off quite a bit. Then the rain came…
Number 2.) After such a dry spring we finally saw a good soaking with 1 to 2 inches of rain falling between June 11th – 15th. Our wettest stretch of days since the February ice storm.
Number 3.) June 2021 hands down will be known for the insanely hot heatwave near the end of the month which brought record shattering high temperatures three days in a row.
Those high temps were 27, 35, and an incredible 39° above our usual highs for those three days!! Truly remarkable. Here were the high temps across the entire region from Monday (June 28th).
You can see the sharp cutoff in temps out along the coast. Of course this was the day we had that 40 to 45 degree drop in temperature in a matter of hours as the cool ocean air finally flooded the valley ending our unprecedented heatwave.
There are three things which really made this heatwave historic. The first is (of course) the insanely hot temps. Prior to this event Salem had never in recorded history been above 108°. We blew through the record on Sunday with a high of 113 and then we blew through that new record the very next day with a high of 117!!
The warm nights were also a major aspect of this heatwave. Salem’s low temp Monday morning was 76° and there were parts of the Portland metro that never fell below 80° that night. YIKES!!! The warm starts to the days allowed us to warm up quickly which leads me to the third and final aspect of this heatwave and that was the duration of the heat.
The length of time it was hot each day added to the oppressiveness of the heat. Temps topped 90 degrees by 8AM on Monday! I’ve never seen that here before ever… Typically on a really hot day we reach 100 degrees right around 3:30 or 4PM and will stay there for just a couple of hours at most. This time though we experienced 100 degree weather for much longer all three days. For example, on Sunday many valley locations were above 100 degrees for 7 to 8 hours.
June 2021 Summary
Overall we ended the month an astonishing 6.67° above normal!!! An incredibly hot month with 10 days above 90 and of course our three back to back to back 100 plus degree days. We just lived through one of the hottest months on record! I imagine you all (like myself) are tired of these “once in a lifetime” weather events. In less than a year we have had a historic fire and smoke disaster, a historic ice storm – which left many people without power for days and even weeks, a historically dry spring, and now a historic heatwave. Leaves us wondering what the next “historic” weather event here will be as we seem to be on a roll unfortunately….
What’s funny and odd is how June 2021 ended up being a wetter than normal month. Yes! I know it may not seem like that could be possible, but if you recall we had 5 very wet days right in a row earlier in June putting us at 1.72″ (138% of normal for the month). Goes to show how statistics can be misleading. Everyone will remember this month, and rightfully so, for the intense and historic heat, but few will recall that for the first time since February we had an above/wetter than normal month.
Forecast
Tuesday will be hot with highs in the low 90s.
Wed & Thu will be the nicest and coolest days of the week with AM clouds both days and highs only around 80 or 81°.
Fri & Sat will be hot again as we climb back into the mid 90s!
Next week should feature more typical summer weather with lots of 80s. Still no sign of any rainfall.
First off I would like to recognize the brief, but major heatwave we just experienced. Very rare to see temps so hot this early in the season. Check out the scorching high temperatures we experienced on Tuesday. Lots of new records!
Another nice little graphic I’m borrowing from Fox 12 Oregon showing some of the new records set around the region this past Tuesday.
A significant warm spell for so early in the season, and for those of us who work either outdoors or in buildings with no AC it has been a brutal few days!
Moving on, let’s recap May 2021. Some things just don’t change with yet another very dry month here in Salem. A lack of significant rainfall kept us at 42% of our normal precip for the month (.94 inches). We also ended on the warmer side of things at 2.48° above normal. In the meteorological community, the official spring season is from March 1st through May 31st. This spring will go down as the 8th driest on record here in Salem!
Below is a graph I made showing total rainfall since March started (the blue line) versus our normal cumulative rainfall (the green line). It’s easy to see that since March begun we have fallen further and further behind normal, and until we get some significant rainfall, this gap will continue to grow.
Unless we have a crazy wet summer, our drought conditions will only continue to worsen. Again, keep in mind a drought does not equal or guarantee a bad fire season, but it definitely helps set the stage for one. As much as it kills me to say this, hopefully we can manage a few summertime soakings to help minimize the fire threat.
Extended Forecast
Not a whole lot to report on. We do have some much cooler weather on tap for Saturday through most of next week. We even have a chance for some really light rain/drizzle Saturday.
Main points to know:
Light rain/drizzle is possible Saturday, but don’t let it stop you from going outdoors. This will not be a washout type of day at all. Wetter up in the both the Coast Range and Cascades though if your plans take you there…
No sign of a rainy or real wet day at all. Sure we will see a few sprinkles, but nothing which will really make a dent in our drought.
Most of next week will be cool with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows dipping back down into the upper 40s at night!
No sign of another heatwave anytime soon…
Take care, stay safe, and have a fantastic rest of your week!!
It was definitely a very unusual April around here as we started off chilly and dry with some record low temps set around the region with lows dipping into the upper 20s on two separate occasions. Then we flipped the switch to warm and dry (very warm in fact). Whether it was cold or warm, the entire month was extremely dry for April. Some last minute rain Friday night bumped us up to 1.27″ (45% of normal) for the month. I almost hate to say this, but we could sure use some good soaking rainstorms over the next couple of months. Check out this graphic from Fox 12 Oregon for Portland where they saw even less rainfall setting a new all time record for driest April up there.
April ended up warmer than normal coming in at 2.27° above average for the month – pretty impressive considering we had lows in the upper 20s a couple days during the first half of the month. Those 80 degree days the second half sure did help to warm us up! Now let’s take a look at what the next 7 days hold for us.
Forecast
Highlights
Wednesday’s going to be the nice summer like day of the week with highs in the low 80s and lots of sunshine.
Thursday should start off dry, but showers and maybe even a few thundershowers move in during the afternoon and evening hours.
Frequent showers on Friday.
Saturday through next Monday will be partly cloudy with a couple of showers each day.
It’s been a busy start to April for me and figured it was time to put out a March 2021 recap. March ended up being chilly and fairy dry. We had a several really warm and nice days with a mild high of 67° to close out the month on the 31st; however, Salem dipped to or fell below freezing 11 separate days which is fairly impressive for March with the coldest temp occurring on the 16th with a low of 28°. The consistently chilly mornings led to an overall below average month with Salem being 2.09° colder than average for the entire month.
In the precipitation category it was a dry month with Salem receiving only 2.33″ (58%) of the normal monthly rainfall. For the mountains, the saving grace was that the storms we did have were quite chilly which meant our snowpack stayed above normal throughout the northern half of the state. Unfortunately, the southern half of the state is currently lagging behind as many of the storms this past month merely brushed the southern regions of the state leaving those regions even drier. This is reflected well on the map below.
There you have it. A pretty simple month. The cold front we had on Sunday the 28th was perhaps the most exciting event with widespread gusts of 30 to 35mph here in the valley along with a sharp drop in temperature that evening; otherwise it was a mostly quiet month.
Between moving into a new house, my brother’s wedding, and our crazy ice storm I realized I never published a recap of January. I had it written up all nice & neat and ready to go, but it never got published. So, I figured I might as well combine it with February for a special two for one deal hahaha!! If you’re looking for a forecast than hang tight. I’ll have a forecast out real soon as well. 🙂
January 2021
It may seem like distant memory, but the first 12 days of January were stormy, wet, and windy. Salem picked up 6.72″ during this time frame. The most significant storm arrived on the 12th bringing 1.93″ of rain, 45mph wind gusts to Salem, and localized flooding in both the Coast Range and along the coast itself as powerful waves crashed ashore. Flooding with this storm was particularly bad on the Mary’s River down near Corvallis where heavy rain stalled out for a longer period of time causing a sharp rise in that river.
This chart from January 15th shows the sharp spike on the Marys River near Philomath (west of Corvallis). This area was hit especially hard by flooding.
The second highlight was the much warmer than normal temperatures which dominated the majority of the month. Salem had 18 days with highs in the 50s. Low temps reached or fell below freezing 9 days, but the coldest temp for the entire month was only 26°. Salem ended the month 2.48° above normal – a very mild January for sure! A brief cool spell near the end of the month offset some of the warm weather, but it also set the stage for the 3rd and final highlight of January 2021.
A surprise snowstorm hit Salem early in the afternoon on the 26th. If you live east or north of downtown then you might not call what took place a snowstorm, and for those parts of town it really wasn’t; however, for areas west and south of downtown what took place was about as legit of a snowstorm as we get around here. Heavy wet snow dumped during the afternoon hours of the 26th leaving behind 3 to 4 inches of snow in both south and west Salem. Snow quickly covered roadways making for treacherous driving conditions specifically in the hilly parts of Salem. Downtown had just shy of 2 inches while Keizer and areas east of Lancaster saw accumulations of an inch or so at most. Locations west of Salem and down towards Dallas & Corvallis picked up 3 to 5 inches of snow as well. It was a very localized event which favored the western Willamette Valley, but for some of these locations it was the biggest snowstorm since January 2017. The snow melted away quickly though as we returned to more mild January weather the very next day.
Snow accumulates in south Salem near Liberty Road.
Summary
January 2021 was quite mild ending 2.48° above normal, and wetter than normal with 8.5″ of precipitation in total giving us 143% of our average precip for January. In the snow department we had an unofficial snow total of 2.5″. Quick reminder that snow totals are no longer kept track of at the Salem Airport making it difficult to obtain official snowfall totals for Salem.
February 2021
Officially no snow was recorded in Salem this month. With that said, February brought us our coldest high temp of the season 0f 30° on the 12th. A whopping 21° colder than normal for that day! This was the same airmass which also brought copious amounts of freezing rain.
I’ve been making the case for awhile now that February has become our snowiest month of the winter. Sure there was no snow this February here in Salem, but the cold and freezing rain still helped to solidify this idea that February has become an increasingly cold and wintry month – much more so than in the past. Same story for Portland with the biggest difference being they actually saw snow (ten inches in fact) from the storm this past month. Looking at this graphic produced by Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon, I find it interesting how 3 of Portland’s snowiest Februaries ever recorded (records go back to 1938) have taken place during the past decade. If we were to expand this graphic a little more, February 2019 would be on there with 6.5″ of snow making that 4 of Portland’s snowiest Februaries occurring in the past ten years….
There definitely seems to be a trend for snowier and colder Februaries around here, and the same goes for March too. I have one more weather graphic from Fox 12 showing measurable March snowfall in Portland over the past 50 years. Again, seems like March has over performed in the snow department during this most recent decade.
It seems like winter is taking longer to get going in recent years with less snow in November and December, but once winter finally gets its act together it’s been slower to leave resulting in colder and snowier weather in February and March than compared to what we use to see. Curious to see if this is something long term or just a temporary trend….
Moving on lol, the only other highlight from around the region would be the big snow totals seen up in the Cascades during the second half of February. Hoodoo Ski Area closed out the month with around 103″ of snow at their base. No shortage of snow up there!
Summary
Other than our brief and intense blast of cold weather and freezing rain storm, the rest of the month was very tame. Salem had nearly 120% of our average February precipitation making for a slightly wetter than normal month. This is typical during a La Nina winter, so no big surprises there. As far as temperature goes, Salem had 7 days which reached or went below the freezing mark, and we ended the month 0.6° below normal. February 2021 goes into the books as slightly cooler and a bit wetter than normal.
We will see what March has in store for us, but I suspect above normal precipitation with lots of mountain snow as this would be typical of a La Nina winter and typical of what we have seen in recent years, but time will tell.
Bryan Weather Alerts 