The forecast

Periods of rain and breezy conditions will prevail through Sunday. This is typical northwestern Oregon rain. Nothing real wild.

Temperatures will stay chilly though which means the incredibly healthy Cascade snowpack will continue to grow. Check out this image showing our current water equivalent snowpack percentages by region.

The entire state is running well above normal for early December. Hoodoo Ski Area currently has 42″ of snow at its base. I was just up in the Cascades last weekend and I can attest to the fact that there is a lot of snow up there already. The storms this weekend will dump another 18 to 24 inches of snow through Sunday night. Snow levels will also stay below the passes the vast majority of the time, so expect snow covered roads if you’re heading up there.

Next week is going to be cold. No clear signs of moisture interacting with the cold yet; however, this will almost certainly be the coldest weather we have seen this winter. I’m watching things closely for sure! 🙂

November 2022

November stood in stark contrast to the extremely warm weather we saw in October. Check out this comparison between October and November for temperature departures from normal.

Highlights from the month include the little bit of wet snow which fell on the evening of the 6th. Slushy accumulations of less than an inch were reported in the higher hills south of Salem as well as areas near Corvallis.

The wettest day of the entire month actually took place just two days prior on the 4th with 1.65″ of rain falling in just 24 hours.

For almost 3 weeks nothing really happened through the majority of the month other than it was freezing cold, and dry.

The month closed out with a bang as a strong cold front moved through. Salem recorded a wind gust of 44mph and picked up another inch and a half of rain while the mountains received a couple feet of snow. For you guys who enjoy statistics, here’s a quick recap of November 2022.

That’s all for now. Have a fantastic weekend and stay safe out there!

I admit I’m stating the obvious when I tell you that our fall season so far has been both extremely warm and dry; however, the part which sticks out the most is the warmth. We have been in record setting territory, but does this mean we might have a warm and mild fall/winter season too, or is there any correlation at all? We’ll take a look in this post. If you’re hoping for a forecast I can tell you that basically it’s looking dry for at least the next 7 or 8 days, so nothing new or exciting, and sadly nothing to really help put out the fires which continue to burn across the PNW.

This past September ended up 3 degrees above normal with only .29″ of rain (just 20% of normal) making for an extremely dry month! In addition to that, September 2022 also recorded seventeen 80+ degree days making the past month feel like an extension of summer. Look at how warm the western half of the country was during September.

October has also started out extremely warm with 6 out of the first 10 days reaching the 80 degree mark vaulting Salem to 6 degrees above normal for the month! Here’s the temperature anomaly map for the month so far:

What’s really bizarre though is we have seen years in the past with extremely warm and dry Septembers and even Octobers during La Nina conditions only to flip to stormy weather. Currently we are experiencing (for a third year in a row) La Nina conditions – something to keep in mind.

Let’s look at September 1974. It was a La Nina year and a mere .28″ of rainfall for the entire month which is almost identical to the amount we saw this September. September 1974 was also extremely warm with a whopping 21 days above 80 and 11 days at/above 90°!

So what happened in 1974 after such a warm and dry early fall? Well over 14 inches of rain fell in November and December alone coupled with tons of mountain snow. Let’s look at a few more examples.

Exactly one year later in 1975 (La Nina year), Salem recorded its driest September on record. Not a single drop of rain fell the entire month. It was also very warm with eighteen 80+ degree days. The second half of October through December brought over 16 inches of rain though, and even some pre Christmas snowfall.

How about one more example? September 1998 was very dry as well with only 0.68″ of precip and plenty of mild days to boot. The following November and December dumped 20 inches of rain here in Salem resulting in widespread flooding. Worth noting that this was also a La Nina winter…

Bottom line is a warm and dry first half of fall can easily switch to a very wet, cool, and stormy second half. To be honest, that’s exactly what I expect will happen this year within the next 2 weeks. Watch for updates as the rainy season draws near and enjoy the warm and dry weather while it lasts, because it won’t last for much longer. Winter and the rainy season is coming, it’s just taking it’s sweet sweet time to arrive, but remember this post and know that you’ve been warned. It is coming…. It won’t be long before everything is all soggy, puddles everywhere, the rivers flowing high, and we will start wishing for sun again.