It’s been a dry spring. Really dry. Back in March we saw 58% of our typical rainfall for the month, then April rolled around even drier with 45% of that month’s average, and now here we are well into May and it’s still dry. Salem has received less than 27% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month. I imagine by now most of us are in summer mode, but we definitely could use the rain. Below is the estimated total precip through next Monday, and unfortunately it’s not a lot, but it’s the most we have seen in quite some time. Every little bit helps, but we are going to need a lot more rain if we want to avoid severe drought conditions this summer. The good thing is I see heavier rainfall predicted for areas east of the Cascades which should help ease conditions over there.

Forecast

1.) Scattered showers today with plenty of sunbreaks. A few thunderstorms are possible as well during the afternoon and early evening hours. Be prepared for some heavy downpours in places. Some showers could contain small hail.

2.) A few less showers on Thursday with lots of sunbreaks. Best chance for showers will be after 3PM.

3.) Plan on both Friday and Saturday being totally dry, but keep an eye to the sky during the late afternoon and evening hours both days as there will still be the slightest chance for a late day shower. More so close to the Coast Range and Cascade Range.

4.) The chance for rain goes up on Sunday morning as another little storm system rolls through bringing a shot at maybe some widespread rainfall.

Overall though, western Oregon is not forecasted to pick up much rain with any of these storm systems. Certainly not enough to eliminate the drought concerns. Sure your neighborhood could see a downpour, but across the whole region we are not expecting much rainfall. The drought monitor shows much of the state is experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions.

Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 had a really nice write up about all this dry weather and what it could mean for us. Check out his full blog post here:

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

Two things from his post I wish to emphasize. Number one is that a dry spring, like the one we’re experiencing now, does not guarantee a bad or destructive fire season. It certainly sets the stage for a bad year; however, a few well placed summer rainstorms can do wonders in preventing large wildfire outbreaks. As long as we get some rain from time to time during the summer months we should fair okay.

The second thing he mentioned is the role lightning plays into all of this. Lightning is a major starter of wildfires. If we stay warm and mostly dry this summer, but have very little in the way of thunderstorm activity, then we could still avoid a bad fire season – so long as humans don’t screw things up.

There you have it! I hope you all are enjoying the work week and making it through okay. Keep an eye to the sky the next few days as these showers could really dump a lot of rain in a short period of time….