First off I would like to recognize the brief, but major heatwave we just experienced. Very rare to see temps so hot this early in the season. Check out the scorching high temperatures we experienced on Tuesday. Lots of new records!
Another nice little graphic I’m borrowing from Fox 12 Oregon showing some of the new records set around the region this past Tuesday.
A significant warm spell for so early in the season, and for those of us who work either outdoors or in buildings with no AC it has been a brutal few days!
Moving on, let’s recap May 2021. Some things just don’t change with yet another very dry month here in Salem. A lack of significant rainfall kept us at 42% of our normal precip for the month (.94 inches). We also ended on the warmer side of things at 2.48° above normal. In the meteorological community, the official spring season is from March 1st through May 31st. This spring will go down as the 8th driest on record here in Salem!
Below is a graph I made showing total rainfall since March started (the blue line) versus our normal cumulative rainfall (the green line). It’s easy to see that since March begun we have fallen further and further behind normal, and until we get some significant rainfall, this gap will continue to grow.
Unless we have a crazy wet summer, our drought conditions will only continue to worsen. Again, keep in mind a drought does not equal or guarantee a bad fire season, but it definitely helps set the stage for one. As much as it kills me to say this, hopefully we can manage a few summertime soakings to help minimize the fire threat.
Extended Forecast
Not a whole lot to report on. We do have some much cooler weather on tap for Saturday through most of next week. We even have a chance for some really light rain/drizzle Saturday.
Main points to know:
Light rain/drizzle is possible Saturday, but don’t let it stop you from going outdoors. This will not be a washout type of day at all. Wetter up in the both the Coast Range and Cascades though if your plans take you there…
No sign of a rainy or real wet day at all. Sure we will see a few sprinkles, but nothing which will really make a dent in our drought.
Most of next week will be cool with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows dipping back down into the upper 40s at night!
No sign of another heatwave anytime soon…
Take care, stay safe, and have a fantastic rest of your week!!
It’s been a dry spring. Really dry. Back in March we saw 58% of our typical rainfall for the month, then April rolled around even drier with 45% of that month’s average, and now here we are well into May and it’s still dry. Salem has received less than 27% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month. I imagine by now most of us are in summer mode, but we definitely could use the rain. Below is the estimated total precip through next Monday, and unfortunately it’s not a lot, but it’s the most we have seen in quite some time. Every little bit helps, but we are going to need a lot more rain if we want to avoid severe drought conditions this summer. The good thing is I see heavier rainfall predicted for areas east of the Cascades which should help ease conditions over there.
Forecast
1.) Scattered showers today with plenty of sunbreaks. A few thunderstorms are possible as well during the afternoon and early evening hours. Be prepared for some heavy downpours in places. Some showers could contain small hail.
2.) A few less showers on Thursday with lots of sunbreaks. Best chance for showers will be after 3PM.
3.) Plan on both Friday and Saturday being totally dry, but keep an eye to the sky during the late afternoon and evening hours both days as there will still be the slightest chance for a late day shower. More so close to the Coast Range and Cascade Range.
4.) The chance for rain goes up on Sunday morning as another little storm system rolls through bringing a shot at maybe some widespread rainfall.
Overall though, western Oregon is not forecasted to pick up much rain with any of these storm systems. Certainly not enough to eliminate the drought concerns. Sure your neighborhood could see a downpour, but across the whole region we are not expecting much rainfall. The drought monitor shows much of the state is experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions.
Two things from his post I wish to emphasize. Number one is that a dry spring, like the one we’re experiencing now, does not guarantee a bad or destructive fire season. It certainly sets the stage for a bad year; however, a few well placed summer rainstorms can do wonders in preventing large wildfire outbreaks. As long as we get some rain from time to time during the summer months we should fair okay.
The second thing he mentioned is the role lightning plays into all of this. Lightning is a major starter of wildfires. If we stay warm and mostly dry this summer, but have very little in the way of thunderstorm activity, then we could still avoid a bad fire season – so long as humans don’t screw things up.
There you have it! I hope you all are enjoying the work week and making it through okay. Keep an eye to the sky the next few days as these showers could really dump a lot of rain in a short period of time….
Interesting month so far. We started the month off with some very chilly – even record cold low temperatures, but wow how it has switched and turned around! We just had an incredible stretch of warm April weather with a new record high occurring this past Saturday with a high of 85° – a whopping 24 degrees above normal!!! This graphic from Mark Nelson with Fox 12 Oregon shows high temps in Portland and gives a good visual of our accent from very chilly weather earlier in the month to the record warmth we recently experienced.
The other record we are currently working on is a record dry April. Do you realize we have only picked up 5% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month? We are running way behind average! I have some good news though as rain looks to arrive this weekend. Okay, so rain on the weekend is not necessarily the best timing lol, but we need the rain; otherwise it’s going to be one heck of a summer.
The next 7 days and forecast highlights
Basically rain continues on and off through much of next week, so hopefully we make up some of that deficit.
The wettest days will be Saturday and Sunday. We do have a shot at seeing a few thundershowers on Sunday. Monday should be mostly dry with showers late in the day, and as it stands now, Tuesday looks to be a fairly dry.
There you have it. Have a great rest of your work week and stay safe!
The sunshine outside is making it feel like a distant memory, but it doesn’t change the fact that we have seen some really chilly nighttime lows (for April) lately. Sunday morning Salem tied its record low of 29°! This nice graphic from The National Weather Service in Portland shows how record lows were widespread this morning across western Oregon.
Despite having a few mild afternoons (our average high this time of year is 60°), Salem is actually running1.8 degrees below normal for the month thanks to these very cold morning lows. Change is coming this week as much warmer weather moves in.
The other interesting thing this month has been the unusually dry weather. Very odd for April to be this dry. Do you realize that we’ve seen a mere 9% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month?!? It’s going to be a long summer if we don’t get a few good soakings later this spring. This graph shows the total rainfall for each April since 1990. Red years were below average while blue ended up with wetter than normal rain totals.
This next map shows estimated total rainfall in inches through next Monday. Basically nothing more than maybe a tenth of an inch falling on next Monday which means our extremely dry April is going to continue.
Might as well make the most of the dry weather though. For all we know May could be gloomy and wet. This whole week and coming weekend will be dry – no question about it with the next chance of rain being (as stated above) next Monday at the soonest. The warmest days will be Thursday – Sunday with highs in the 70s and maybe even low 80s Saturday and Sunday!!
There you have it. Enjoy the sunny and warm weather!
Winter is done and it’s time to see how my outlook faired when compared to reality. This is the full meal deal with lots of info, so make sure you’re sitting comfortably for this one lol 🙂 . If you’re looking for a forecast just know that we have a few showers coming in tonight through Thursday morning and then one more cool and showery day on Saturday before we dry out and warm up setting the stage for a very mild and sunny stretch of weather next week.
WINTER 2020/2021 REVIEW
Back in October it appeared as though we had a moderate La Nina on tap and I laid out several things that were more likely to occur during a La Nina winter based off of similar winters in the past. In case you wish to travel back in time to see what my thoughts and predictions were you can check out my 2020/2021 winter outlook here: https://bryanweatheralert.com/2020/09/28/winter-2020-2021-outlook/
1.) Wetter than normal: (OKAY). Nov and Dec were both slightly below normal, Jan was fairly wet, Feb came in a little above normal, but March finished out well below average. When all was said and done, Salem ended up right around average in the precip category. I stated in my winter outlook that a dry winter was very unlikely, and that part held true. This winter was definitely not a dry one, but to call it a wetter than normal winter would be a little bit of a stretch.
2.) Above normal mountain snow: (GOOD). We started the season off strong with above normal snowfall in November, but a warm and slightly drier than normal December brought the snowpack below normal by the time we rolled into January. Fortunately a few well timed storms in December kept enough snow on the ground through Christmas break to keep most of the ski areas operational – something we did not have the previous December.
The snowpack didn’t really increase much though until the end of January when we saw our brief snow event, and again with the colder weather during mid February. The cooler and wetter weather in February brought tons of snowfall to the mountains and pushed us above normal again. Occasional cool systems through the month of March maintained a very healthy snowpack as we headed into spring. With all things considered I call this forecast a hit with the snowpack being at or above normal for the majority of the winter.
3.) Flooding: This was not as much a forecast as it was more of a warning or heads up. I’m more than happy to have not had a big flood this year – something I think everyone could agree on… Flooding events are significantly more common during La Nina winters and that’s just a fact. We had no flooding on the Willamette River this year; however, we did have some localized flooding on several of our smaller rivers and streams in the region with a wet system in mid December, and then on a larger scale again in the first half of January when the valley saw 2 inches of rain in 24 hours with a storm on the 12th. Odds favor we see another La Nina next winter which means I would again sound the alarm for the potential for major flooding as this seems to be a trademark of La Nina winters around here.
4.) Snowfall. (GOOD). If you recall, I mentioned how the odds of seeing at least a little bit of snow increases with La Nina winters. Sure enough we saw some with our surprise snow event on January 26th which dumped a quick 1 to 4 inches of snow (depending on location) across Salem, and of course we also had our historic ice storm in February. So while the snow was short lived right here in Salem, we still picked up both snow and ice this year reinforcing the statement that La Nina winters tend to deliver at least some snow or ice. The official snowfall total I’m going with is 2.5″ and 1.25″ of freezing rain.
As far as wind goes, right here in Salem we had no major windstorms (widespread 50mph+ gusts). That said, the region did experience several minor to moderate wind events which brought scattered power outages to the Willamette Valley each time with the January 12th storm being the strongest windstorm
Next I have a graphic with the biggest highlights from this past winter.
This second graphic shows how each month stacked up compared to average in both temperature and precipitation. I also included total rainfall per month, snowfall, and ice accumulation. Kind of a nice and neat way of seeing how each month faired.
Having both December and January on the much warmer side of things is unusual for a La Nina. As far as the precip went, the wet January and February balanced out pretty well the three drier months leaving us right at average for the whole period. Looking ahead, early indications are La Nina will return in the fall. This is represented on the chart below which shows how most first year La Nina winters are usually followed by a second La Nina winter.
If next winter is indeed a La Nina, I would put my money on a more active year with a decent chance of a wetter than normal winter. I would also expect at least some valley snow again, a higher than usual chance for major flooding, an increased risk of a significant windstorm, and a healthy mountain snowpack. But let’s not get too excited or ahead of ourselves lol. I enjoy every season and the weather each one has to offer. I’m looking forward to some beautiful sunny spring weather – maybe a few thunderstorms mixed in (if we are lucky), and then hopefully a nice and warm, but wildfire free summer. 🙂
I have a very special guest post today coming from a friend who lives all the way in New York City! She and her friend have written up a nice forecast over there highlighting what one can expect should you find yourself in that unique part of the world. 😉 Our local Salem forecast is tagged along at the bottom. ENJOY!!!!
Forecast for New York City
Saturday – a wonderful day, use best you can. Sunday…it’s for the ducks
Cold front will start rolling into NYC on Saturday around 4am and will calm the windy conditions seen on Friday. Clear skies with a temperature in the high fifties to low 60’s. Winds ranging from 12-25 MPH. Nice day that Saturday We recommend using it to get outside and catching a glimpse of the rare and exotic green parrots atop the Greenwood Cemetery Arch.
If you happen to forget your sunscreen on Saturday and end up getting a ring-tail lemur sunburn on your ankles, don’t fret, because Sunday’s weather will be keeping you inside. Early Sunday morning, starting at 2am, nice conditions will start to diminish, clouds will be low, winds will be light. Heavy rain will commence at 8am with winds hitting full tilt at 11am. Wind gusts will pick up to 40 MPH. As Sunday progresses, clouds will thicken like a split-pea soup (which apparently no establishment in NYC carries despite our repeated pleas) This will cause poor visibility and rain with the temperature in the low 50’s. Fog is not out of the question folks. Rainy conditions and visibility will improve during the evening, but wind will remain, so no skirts.
Monday the skies will be back to their old ways- a cool 55, partly cloudy, no winds. The perfect start to a week locked inside working. Looking ahead, Tuesday will be your last chance before rain picks up mid-week with the sun coming back to shine on all your beautiful, bountiful Easter eggs.
Salem Area Forecast
Looks like NYC has a similar weather forecast to us in that today is going to be a beautiful day with highs in mid 60s and lots of sunshine.
Sunday starts off nice; however, we also make a switch to weather fit only for ducks 😉 as things go downhill in the afternoon with a very potent cold front moving in. Winds will be strong at times gusting up to 35mph and rain will be quite heavy at times. If you have outdoor plans I would aim to have them done by 1 or 2PM on Sunday with rain moving in by 4PM at the latest.
Temps drop dramatically Sunday evening with this powerful cold front. Snow levels Monday morning will be down to 1000′. Lots of snow up in the Cascades. I’m thinking like 6 – 10 new inches with this storm. Very poor driving conditions up there Sunday night through Monday with gusty winds blowing that heavy snow around a bit. Back here in the valley we will be left with a few scattered showers on Monday before drying out for much of next week with highs returning to the 60s Tue – Thu or even next Friday.
Whether you are in the Big Apple or the Cherry City 😉 enjoy the nice sunny weather while it lasts and a special thanks to my friend and her roommate for writing up their gust post!
Between moving into a new house, my brother’s wedding, and our crazy ice storm I realized I never published a recap of January. I had it written up all nice & neat and ready to go, but it never got published. So, I figured I might as well combine it with February for a special two for one deal hahaha!! If you’re looking for a forecast than hang tight. I’ll have a forecast out real soon as well. 🙂
January 2021
It may seem like distant memory, but the first 12 days of January were stormy, wet, and windy. Salem picked up 6.72″ during this time frame. The most significant storm arrived on the 12th bringing 1.93″ of rain, 45mph wind gusts to Salem, and localized flooding in both the Coast Range and along the coast itself as powerful waves crashed ashore. Flooding with this storm was particularly bad on the Mary’s River down near Corvallis where heavy rain stalled out for a longer period of time causing a sharp rise in that river.
This chart from January 15th shows the sharp spike on the Marys River near Philomath (west of Corvallis). This area was hit especially hard by flooding.
The second highlight was the much warmer than normal temperatures which dominated the majority of the month. Salem had 18 days with highs in the 50s. Low temps reached or fell below freezing 9 days, but the coldest temp for the entire month was only 26°. Salem ended the month 2.48° above normal – a very mild January for sure! A brief cool spell near the end of the month offset some of the warm weather, but it also set the stage for the 3rd and final highlight of January 2021.
A surprise snowstorm hit Salem early in the afternoon on the 26th. If you live east or north of downtown then you might not call what took place a snowstorm, and for those parts of town it really wasn’t; however, for areas west and south of downtown what took place was about as legit of a snowstorm as we get around here. Heavy wet snow dumped during the afternoon hours of the 26th leaving behind 3 to 4 inches of snow in both south and west Salem. Snow quickly covered roadways making for treacherous driving conditions specifically in the hilly parts of Salem. Downtown had just shy of 2 inches while Keizer and areas east of Lancaster saw accumulations of an inch or so at most. Locations west of Salem and down towards Dallas & Corvallis picked up 3 to 5 inches of snow as well. It was a very localized event which favored the western Willamette Valley, but for some of these locations it was the biggest snowstorm since January 2017. The snow melted away quickly though as we returned to more mild January weather the very next day.
Snow accumulates in south Salem near Liberty Road.
Summary
January 2021 was quite mild ending 2.48° above normal, and wetter than normal with 8.5″ of precipitation in total giving us 143% of our average precip for January. In the snow department we had an unofficial snow total of 2.5″. Quick reminder that snow totals are no longer kept track of at the Salem Airport making it difficult to obtain official snowfall totals for Salem.
February 2021
Officially no snow was recorded in Salem this month. With that said, February brought us our coldest high temp of the season 0f 30° on the 12th. A whopping 21° colder than normal for that day! This was the same airmass which also brought copious amounts of freezing rain.
I’ve been making the case for awhile now that February has become our snowiest month of the winter. Sure there was no snow this February here in Salem, but the cold and freezing rain still helped to solidify this idea that February has become an increasingly cold and wintry month – much more so than in the past. Same story for Portland with the biggest difference being they actually saw snow (ten inches in fact) from the storm this past month. Looking at this graphic produced by Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon, I find it interesting how 3 of Portland’s snowiest Februaries ever recorded (records go back to 1938) have taken place during the past decade. If we were to expand this graphic a little more, February 2019 would be on there with 6.5″ of snow making that 4 of Portland’s snowiest Februaries occurring in the past ten years….
There definitely seems to be a trend for snowier and colder Februaries around here, and the same goes for March too. I have one more weather graphic from Fox 12 showing measurable March snowfall in Portland over the past 50 years. Again, seems like March has over performed in the snow department during this most recent decade.
It seems like winter is taking longer to get going in recent years with less snow in November and December, but once winter finally gets its act together it’s been slower to leave resulting in colder and snowier weather in February and March than compared to what we use to see. Curious to see if this is something long term or just a temporary trend….
Moving on lol, the only other highlight from around the region would be the big snow totals seen up in the Cascades during the second half of February. Hoodoo Ski Area closed out the month with around 103″ of snow at their base. No shortage of snow up there!
Summary
Other than our brief and intense blast of cold weather and freezing rain storm, the rest of the month was very tame. Salem had nearly 120% of our average February precipitation making for a slightly wetter than normal month. This is typical during a La Nina winter, so no big surprises there. As far as temperature goes, Salem had 7 days which reached or went below the freezing mark, and we ended the month 0.6° below normal. February 2021 goes into the books as slightly cooler and a bit wetter than normal.
We will see what March has in store for us, but I suspect above normal precipitation with lots of mountain snow as this would be typical of a La Nina winter and typical of what we have seen in recent years, but time will tell.
Bryan Weather Alerts 