The second half of October and the first half of November were both quite stormy and active with several small to moderate wind events, plenty of rain, and mountain snow. Since then it has basically been a blowtorch around here. November 2021 ended up being 3.5° above normal which is fairly significant. We still managed to dip below freezing once on the 21st with a low of 30°, but overall it was quite mild with 9 days reaching at least 60°! In the precip category we came up a little bit short despite the very rainy and wet start to the month. 5.50″ was our grand total for the month which is 92% of the monthly average.
November is actually one of the months which became slightly drier when the new averages were updated this past year. Between 1980 and 2010 the normal rainfall for Salem during the month of November was 6.5″. When the 1980s were dropped and the 2010s were added, our average rainfall for November dropped by a little more than half an inch down to 5.95″. Meanwhile, both March and October have turned wetter over the past decade. Interesting don’t you think? The maps below show the changes in average precip for each of these months.
Total Salem rainfall for November going back to 1990.
1995, 1999, 2008, and 2016 all had really mild Novembers as well with temps very similar to what we have seen this year. All 4 of these years were also La Nina winters, and 3 of the 4 years listed ended up delivering at least one good snowstorm here in Salem. I’m sure some of you remember all the snow we had before Christmas in 2008, and then the winter of 2016/2017 had several snow events too, so a warm November does not at all mean a warm winter. It doesn’t guarantee a cold one either, but don’t be too worried about the lack of cold or mountain snow just yet. In fact weather maps are indicating this may be the last week of mild weather for quite some time, so get out there and enjoy it! 🙂
Quick forecast and look ahead
1.) Mild weather continues through Sunday; although today will likely be the last 60 degree day – finally…
2.) A few sprinkles are possible both Thursday and Saturday, but honestly it won’t amount to hardly anything.
3.) The nice weather ends Monday as a significant storm system rolls in bringing a good amount of rain. This storm will be the first of several storms bringing multiple rounds of showers, rain, and mountain snow for the rest of next week.
This past October was odd in a few ways. Salem received rainfall 18 days this October; however, the vast majority of that rain was not heavy enough to give us a “wet month.” We ended up with 78% of our normal rainfall at 2.71″.
As far as temperature goes, it was a near average October. at 0.3° below normal. There was no widespread freeze this month with our coldest temp only being 35° on the 12th. We have had some cold October weather in recent years, but not this year. There were no significant warm spells either. In fact, our warmest temp was just 73° on the 3rd.
On October 24th and 25th a powerful low pressure spun up several hundred miles offshore. There were no historic impacts right here as it was several hundred miles away; however, the storm still brought some locally heavy rain and a solid 24 hours of south/southwest winds which gusted between 30 and 45mph right here in Salem. This lead to some power outages and a few downed tree branches and limbs. Massive waves were also common along the coast during this storm. Below is an image from Mark Nelson over at Fox12 Oregon. It shows the strength and path of both “bomb cyclones” which effected the Pacific Northwest. Had the storms moved up the coast “inside” (east) of the red line then we would have seen significant damage, so I guess you could say we dodged a couple of big bullets with these two storms.
Satellite image of the first big storm on the 21st.
SUMMARY
All in all it was a fairly typical October with a mostly dry first half, and then the rainy season showed up right on cue the second half of the month. Those two big cyclone storms were hands down the highlights of this month otherwise nothing too crazy.
If you’ve been outside at all over the past couple weeks then you know it’s definitely that time of year again. Time to take a peak into what our winter weather season might have in store for us. My “forecast” for this coming winter is more of a statistics based outlook than an actual forecast. I looked at and reviewed past years which had similar sea surface temperatures and similar weather patterns to make my prediction. Years with similarities are called analog years. Based off of analog years (years with similar conditions), current forecasts, and recent sea surface temperature trends, it seems clear we will experience a La Nina this winter.
What is La Nina, and what are the effects here in Oregon? In short, La Nina is a cooling of the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. I used arrows in the the image below to highlight that cooling. I also pointed out the cooling south of Alaska as this too can directly effect our weather.
Basically you can count on a La Nina winter being active with more weather action taking place than in a typical winter. The primary impacts being wetter than normal, cooler than normal, a good mountain snowpack, higher chance for major flooding, and increased chances for valley snow. Let’s break those down in detail.
1.)WETTER THAN NORMAL Perhaps the number one thing which stands out to me is how wet La Nina winters typically are in the valley. All 9 analog years I reviewed in detail gave Salem either near average or above average precip. This lends pretty solid confidence we will end up with a fairly wet/rainy winter with plenty of rain and mountain snow which is great news for our ground water and drought conditions. As is the case every winter, Salem should still see a number of dry days mixed in. The key thing to remember is that overall between now and March we have a higher chance of ending up wetter than average.
2.) SOLID MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK Odds significantly favor an above normal mountain snowpack this year which is great news for skiers/snowboarders and very good for our water supply with a solid above average snowpack occurring in all 9 analog years! One caveat is a few of these analog years got off to a slow start in the snow department meaning Nov and Dec weren’t necessarily real good in terms of mountain snow; however, all of the years analyzed ended up with an excellent second half of the ski season as snow ramped up nicely in Jan and Feb. Bottom line is whether it starts early or takes its time, a good mountain snowpack this winter is a safe bet. This image from Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon does not include last winter’s La Nina; however, the point seems clear that La Nina winters tend to bring really good snowfall totals to our mountains which is why I’m feeling confident we see a good mountain snow season this year.
3.)FLOODING This next one is not good news. Keep in mind I’m strictly talking odds here by looking at what happened in past La Nina winters, but for this one the odds are not in our favor. Of the 9 years surveyed, 5 saw a notable (either moderate or major) valley flooding event. The percentage of La Nina years with significant flooding events is high when compared to non La Nina winters. Below is a list of historic flood events on the Willamette River in Salem. This list only contains floods occurring since flood control dams were built in the 50s. It’s no coincidence 10 of Salem’s 13 worse floods occurred in La Nina winters, and it makes sense. It’s a natural consequence of having lots of mountain snow and more rain than normal. So while it’s far from certain, one would be wise to keep this in the back of their mind as the odds of seeing some sort of flooding event this year are higher than normal.
4.) COOLER THAN NORMAL 8 of the analog years ended up as either average or cooler than average. Basically don’t expect a “mild” winter.
5.) VALLEY SNOW Perhaps the most anticipated question is whether or not it’s going to snow here in the valley. Well, all 9 analog winters produced at least some snow here in Salem. 😉 Breaking it down further this is where it gets tricky. 5 of the 9 analog winters I reviewed in detail gave Salem a legit snowstorm with several inches of snow. The other 4 only saw minor accumulations of a slushy inch or so which is not really enough to enjoy in my humble opinion. So take it for what you want, but odds are quite high we at least get a dusting of snow at some point this year, and more importantly, odds are somewhat higher than normal we see a respectable sized snowstorm this winter bringing us several inches of snow. Far from a slam dunk as I like to say, and we are talking statistics, but it does provide some extra hope for us snow lovers.
So yes, may the odds be ever in our favor. Here’s a quick recap for you:
1.) Odds favor a wetter and stormier than normal winter overall.
2.) Odds favor a good mountain snowpack and good year for ski resorts.
3.) Increased odds for a significant valley flooding event.
4.) Cooler than normal weather (overall) is likely.
5.) Higher than normal odds for a more significant snow event here in the valley.
The odds definitely favor a more active winter, but only time will tell, so be ready for anything. If you have been reading my posts over the past year then you know I’ve really hit hard the idea of having supplies on hand at home for when a disaster strikes. Look at the severe impact Covid-19, last year’s wildfires, and the major ice storm all had on our community. You want to be prepared. For example, even if you don’t live in a flood plain it’s still a good idea to be ready for a major flood as such an event would likely effect the supply chains to our local stores. Something to think about.
Okay, I’ve laid it all out there. I really hope you all have a nice fall and winter season. I personally really enjoy the extra time with family and friends fall and winter brings along with the holidays and festive activities which accompany this time of year. Focus this season on what is important in your life and enjoy the people around you God has placed in your life. Regardless of what happens weather wise I enjoy being your forecaster and and I hope it’s a safe, enjoyable, and fun season for you all!!
I figured it was time to bring back the monthly reports. These are definitely a fun way of documenting the month just in general as well as highlighting any major weather events from the month. If you are looking for the forecast then skip down to the bottom. 😉
September 2021 Summary
Much of September 2021 was actually very warm and summer like which is common for September; however, a few good soakings during the second half of the month gave Salem a rainfall total of 2.89″ which is a whopping 198% of our monthly average! This chart below shows the percentage of total precip for each month here in Salem going back to last October.
This image above shows the upper level pattern which brought Salem steady rain on the 27th.
At 1.9° above normal, September ended up being Salem’s 6th warmer than average month in a row in what has been a fairly warm year. This chart shows the number of degrees above or below normal each month has been since last October.
Looking ahead
October is off to a fairly cool and dry start. As of today (Saturday), Salem is sitting at 3.7°F below normal for the month, but with only .19″ of rain. From looking at the long range charts, it seems obvious the cooler weather is here to stay.
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
1.) Sunday’s going to be a typical shower and sunbreak type of day with small hail and brief downpours possible. Very cool air with this storm will bring a few inches of snow to the Cascades Sun night and Monday morning.
2.) Plan on Monday being mostly dry with just a very slight chance of a PM shower. The cool airmass behind this system will set us up for our coldest lows of the year Tuesday morning with frost in some of the outlying areas around the valley.
3.) A weak storm system moves though Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing a few showers here and there, but nothing big.
4.) Besides the nice weather we are seeing today, next Tue, Thu, Fri, and Sat all look dry for outdoor projects and adventures. No sign of any late season warmth to go with that dry weather unfortunately as we seem to be locked into a cooler pattern for the foreseeable future.
This past summer has been a “blockbuster” with numerous records set. In addition to seeing the hottest temperature ever recorded two days in a row back in June, we’ve also seen record warm low temps, the highest number of 100+ degree days ever recorded in a single year, and on top of that, a record number of 90+ degree days!! It’s truly been a historic and extremely hot summer. In fact the June, July, August period will go down as Salem’s hottest summer since records began in the late 1800s!
June will be remembered for the historic and record breaking heatwave which took place at the end of the month; however, it was hot even earlier in the month as well with near record high temps occurring on June 1st.
The heat continued through the month with several more 90+ degree days before the big heatwave hit. Here were the temperatures at 4PM that Sunday. Incredible heat for this region!
Then even hotter high temps the very next day before cool marine air rushed in from the southwest.
After the heatwave I shared this graphic to help document the historic heatwave.
The heat continued through July and the first half of August with Salem hitting 103° on the 11th and 12th. When all was said and done by mid September, Salem had recorded an astonishing 41 days at or above 90 including 6 days at or above 100° which is also a new record! Nothing like that in any other year!
It was a hot one, and it was dry. This was the US drought monitor map for Oregon as of September 7th before the rains started.
Believe it or not the wildfire season was nearly as bad as it could have been, nor was it as bad as some predictions suggested with around 290,616 acres burned so far versus the 1.1 million acres burned in 2020. A big improvement!
There are many reasons for this drop, but perhaps the biggest two reasons, okay three reasons were: A very inactive thunderstorm season. A lack of lightning strikes significantly reduced the amount of fires started especially east of the Cascades. Two, we had just enough pushes of cooler marine air and even a couple shots of light rain in July and August which helped conditions west of the Cascades. The third reason was the lack of a strong east wind event like we saw last year in September. All in all it was a dodged bullet if you ask me. Goes to show that drought conditions, snowpack levels, and the weather conditions in spring are not nearly as important as what actually takes place during the summer and wildfire season. Something everyone should keep in mind for in the future.
There you have it, summer 2021. Switching gears I’ll have a fresh forecast Sunday plus I’m currently working on my winter outlook. With a La Nina on tap and looking at the current sea surface temperatures & overall weather trends it appears we have a good shot at seeing a very wet & active fall/winter season…. More on that in the coming week.
Number 1.) The sizzling hot start to the month. Salem set a new record for June 1st with a high of 97°! The heat didn’t last long before we cooled off quite a bit. Then the rain came…
Number 2.) After such a dry spring we finally saw a good soaking with 1 to 2 inches of rain falling between June 11th – 15th. Our wettest stretch of days since the February ice storm.
Number 3.) June 2021 hands down will be known for the insanely hot heatwave near the end of the month which brought record shattering high temperatures three days in a row.
Those high temps were 27, 35, and an incredible 39° above our usual highs for those three days!! Truly remarkable. Here were the high temps across the entire region from Monday (June 28th).
You can see the sharp cutoff in temps out along the coast. Of course this was the day we had that 40 to 45 degree drop in temperature in a matter of hours as the cool ocean air finally flooded the valley ending our unprecedented heatwave.
There are three things which really made this heatwave historic. The first is (of course) the insanely hot temps. Prior to this event Salem had never in recorded history been above 108°. We blew through the record on Sunday with a high of 113 and then we blew through that new record the very next day with a high of 117!!
The warm nights were also a major aspect of this heatwave. Salem’s low temp Monday morning was 76° and there were parts of the Portland metro that never fell below 80° that night. YIKES!!! The warm starts to the days allowed us to warm up quickly which leads me to the third and final aspect of this heatwave and that was the duration of the heat.
The length of time it was hot each day added to the oppressiveness of the heat. Temps topped 90 degrees by 8AM on Monday! I’ve never seen that here before ever… Typically on a really hot day we reach 100 degrees right around 3:30 or 4PM and will stay there for just a couple of hours at most. This time though we experienced 100 degree weather for much longer all three days. For example, on Sunday many valley locations were above 100 degrees for 7 to 8 hours.
June 2021 Summary
Overall we ended the month an astonishing 6.67° above normal!!! An incredibly hot month with 10 days above 90 and of course our three back to back to back 100 plus degree days. We just lived through one of the hottest months on record! I imagine you all (like myself) are tired of these “once in a lifetime” weather events. In less than a year we have had a historic fire and smoke disaster, a historic ice storm – which left many people without power for days and even weeks, a historically dry spring, and now a historic heatwave. Leaves us wondering what the next “historic” weather event here will be as we seem to be on a roll unfortunately….
What’s funny and odd is how June 2021 ended up being a wetter than normal month. Yes! I know it may not seem like that could be possible, but if you recall we had 5 very wet days right in a row earlier in June putting us at 1.72″ (138% of normal for the month). Goes to show how statistics can be misleading. Everyone will remember this month, and rightfully so, for the intense and historic heat, but few will recall that for the first time since February we had an above/wetter than normal month.
Forecast
Tuesday will be hot with highs in the low 90s.
Wed & Thu will be the nicest and coolest days of the week with AM clouds both days and highs only around 80 or 81°.
Fri & Sat will be hot again as we climb back into the mid 90s!
Next week should feature more typical summer weather with lots of 80s. Still no sign of any rainfall.
First off I would like to recognize the brief, but major heatwave we just experienced. Very rare to see temps so hot this early in the season. Check out the scorching high temperatures we experienced on Tuesday. Lots of new records!
Another nice little graphic I’m borrowing from Fox 12 Oregon showing some of the new records set around the region this past Tuesday.
A significant warm spell for so early in the season, and for those of us who work either outdoors or in buildings with no AC it has been a brutal few days!
Moving on, let’s recap May 2021. Some things just don’t change with yet another very dry month here in Salem. A lack of significant rainfall kept us at 42% of our normal precip for the month (.94 inches). We also ended on the warmer side of things at 2.48° above normal. In the meteorological community, the official spring season is from March 1st through May 31st. This spring will go down as the 8th driest on record here in Salem!
Below is a graph I made showing total rainfall since March started (the blue line) versus our normal cumulative rainfall (the green line). It’s easy to see that since March begun we have fallen further and further behind normal, and until we get some significant rainfall, this gap will continue to grow.
Unless we have a crazy wet summer, our drought conditions will only continue to worsen. Again, keep in mind a drought does not equal or guarantee a bad fire season, but it definitely helps set the stage for one. As much as it kills me to say this, hopefully we can manage a few summertime soakings to help minimize the fire threat.
Extended Forecast
Not a whole lot to report on. We do have some much cooler weather on tap for Saturday through most of next week. We even have a chance for some really light rain/drizzle Saturday.
Main points to know:
Light rain/drizzle is possible Saturday, but don’t let it stop you from going outdoors. This will not be a washout type of day at all. Wetter up in the both the Coast Range and Cascades though if your plans take you there…
No sign of a rainy or real wet day at all. Sure we will see a few sprinkles, but nothing which will really make a dent in our drought.
Most of next week will be cool with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows dipping back down into the upper 40s at night!
No sign of another heatwave anytime soon…
Take care, stay safe, and have a fantastic rest of your week!!
Bryan Weather Alerts 