Category: Extra!!

Incoming

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s awful that we are having to deal with fires and smoke in the middle of October, but here we are. Of course some of these fires were human caused, so they are not so “wild.” With that in mind, it is true that regardless of the cause, fires would not be burning out of control like this if our regular early fall rains had showed up on time.

I’ve been mentioning it for awhile now, and it’s finally almost here. The transition from warm, sunny, and dry weather to cool, stormy, and rainy weather will be quick and it’s coming this weekend! Before we dive into anymore details, take a look at how the entire country is doing in regards to temperature so far this month.

Map showing temperature departures for the month of October compared to average.

The pacific northwest is both metaphorically and literally on fire with the majority of locations running 8 to 10 degrees warmer than normal! Meanwhile the east coast has already started winter. Do you realize that parts of Florida dipped below freezing this morning? Back here in Salem we haven’t even cracked 40° yet…..

This next chart is one I enjoy using during the fall and winter months. Time moves from left to right with each horizontal line representing a possible outcome. In this case it’s showing how much rainfall is expected here in Salem. What really stands out is that after Thursday we are done with the days and days on end of reliably dry weather. The rainy season is definitely upon us meaning our prolonged summer is nearly over. There will be no gradual transition into wet season this year. It’s arriving late, but arriving in full force very soon.

Here’s the next 7 days

Highlights

Wed & Thu: Smoke will continue to plague our air quality both days as we continue to stay in a dry and warm pattern.

Fri: Dry with increasing clouds. Rain moves in late afternoon/early evening.

Sat & Sun: Showers and periods of rain with a few sunbreaks. Could see some hail and maybe a rumble of thunder too. Meanwhile the Cascades will actually see their first dumping of snow over the weekend with 4 to 8 inches falling by Sunday night. Sunday will be much drier with sunbreaks and just a few isolated showers around.

More storms roll in next week continuing the stormy weather pattern.

Lastly, it is going to be yet another La Niña winter meaning I expect our winter to overall trend wetter than normal with elevated chances for both flooding and valley snow. Not guarantees; however, La Niña winters favor rainier, snowier, and stormier weather than a typical winter. We will see what happens. Here’s a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies. The classic La Niña signature of cooler than normal waters off the coast of South America really stand out on here.

Late season fire and heat

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s super late in the year to be seeing 90s, and yet here we are. Salem set a record high temp today 27 degrees above normal at a “scorching” 92°. The stretch of heat we are having is historic, and it’s tragic too in that wildfires continue to burn across the state of Oregon. Here’s a temperature map from 4PM showing the extremely hot temps around the region. Keep in mind it’s October 15th…

The forecast for the coming week is for more sun, more warm temps, more smoke in the air at times, and of course, still no rain. The “coolest” day this coming week will be Monday with highs reaching about 70 which is still warmer than normal by several degrees. We warm back up into the 80s Wed and Thu.

Now if you read my previous post, then you probably remember how optimistic I was that a switch to wetter and cooler weather was coming, and indeed it is still on schedule to arrive right around the 22nd. It can’t come soon enough though as I feel many of us are tired of the warm smoky air. I will happily update you all later this coming week with more details regarding our big and overdue change in the weather, but in the meantime I suppose we should all try our best to enjoy this very warm weather.

Our Extremely warm fall

On By bryanweatherIn 2022, 2022//2023, Extra!!, Monthly reports, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

I admit I’m stating the obvious when I tell you that our fall season so far has been both extremely warm and dry; however, the part which sticks out the most is the warmth. We have been in record setting territory, but does this mean we might have a warm and mild fall/winter season too, or is there any correlation at all? We’ll take a look in this post. If you’re hoping for a forecast I can tell you that basically it’s looking dry for at least the next 7 or 8 days, so nothing new or exciting, and sadly nothing to really help put out the fires which continue to burn across the PNW.

This past September ended up 3 degrees above normal with only .29″ of rain (just 20% of normal) making for an extremely dry month! In addition to that, September 2022 also recorded seventeen 80+ degree days making the past month feel like an extension of summer. Look at how warm the western half of the country was during September.

Much of the western U.S. was 3 to 5° for the month.

October has also started out extremely warm with 6 out of the first 10 days reaching the 80 degree mark vaulting Salem to 6 degrees above normal for the month! Here’s the temperature anomaly map for the month so far:

The entire state of Oregon and Washington are currently running 6 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for October.

What’s really bizarre though is we have seen years in the past with extremely warm and dry Septembers and even Octobers during La Nina conditions only to flip to stormy weather. Currently we are experiencing (for a third year in a row) La Nina conditions – something to keep in mind.

Let’s look at September 1974. It was a La Nina year and a mere .28″ of rainfall for the entire month which is almost identical to the amount we saw this September. September 1974 was also extremely warm with a whopping 21 days above 80 and 11 days at/above 90°!

So what happened in 1974 after such a warm and dry early fall? Well over 14 inches of rain fell in November and December alone coupled with tons of mountain snow. Let’s look at a few more examples.

Exactly one year later in 1975 (La Nina year), Salem recorded its driest September on record. Not a single drop of rain fell the entire month. It was also very warm with eighteen 80+ degree days. The second half of October through December brought over 16 inches of rain though, and even some pre Christmas snowfall.

How about one more example? September 1998 was very dry as well with only 0.68″ of precip and plenty of mild days to boot. The following November and December dumped 20 inches of rain here in Salem resulting in widespread flooding. Worth noting that this was also a La Nina winter…

Bottom line is a warm and dry first half of fall can easily switch to a very wet, cool, and stormy second half. To be honest, that’s exactly what I expect will happen this year within the next 2 weeks. Watch for updates as the rainy season draws near and enjoy the warm and dry weather while it lasts, because it won’t last for much longer. Winter and the rainy season is coming, it’s just taking it’s sweet sweet time to arrive, but remember this post and know that you’ve been warned. It is coming…. It won’t be long before everything is all soggy, puddles everywhere, the rivers flowing high, and we will start wishing for sun again.

Our first heat wave

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS, Weather Year 2021/2022Leave a comment

So far summer 2022 has started off much slower than last summer, but we are finally going to see things change (briefly) as a dome of hot air builds up towards us from the desert southwest. You can see the dome of heat is pretty much right over the Pacific Northwest by Sunday. The map below essentially shows temperature anomalies up around 18 thousand feet in the atmosphere.

Here’s what I’m expecting:

This will be a very typical heatwave with temps spiking close to 100° on Sunday before cooling back down on Tuesday. In fact, most of next week will stay close to average. No sign of any long term hot spells like we’ve seen far too often over the past several summers.

A question I’ve been getting is “will Oregon see a wet summer?” Based off of long range maps, my very best guess is yes, probabilities seem to favor a “wetter” summer. Problem is, this statement can be very misleading and here’s why. Take July for example, on average Salem only sees rainfall between 1 and 2 days each July which means 3 rainy days technically equals a wetter than normal July by that metric. However, if you do the math, this still leaves us with 28 days or 4 full weeks of totally dry weather for the month, so can we really just call 3 rainy days a “wet month?” My answer there is no. If you want to know what a truly wet month looks like then think back to April or last December lol. Hopefully my point is coming across here okay… To help illustrate this further, check out this chart showing total rainfall in Salem for July going back to 1970.

For the record, the average rainfall for July is just under half an inch. 1993 is the last time we saw more than an inch of rain in July. Goes to show just how reliably dry this month is for us. If we do manage to receive half an inch of rain this July, it will make it the wettest one in 11 years!! Similar story for August and the first half of September too. Our summers are reliably dry and that’s what I like about our climate. It’s so awesome having a 2 – 3 month period of warm mostly dry weather for getting outdoors.

Bottom line is, it doesn’t take much rainfall to make it a “wetter than normal summer” around here. Long range charts do show the potential for rain and showers sometime between July 4th and July 7th. Poor timing if it interferes with Independence Day celebrations, but we should quickly return to dry summer like weather afterwards as we head further into the month.

My best guess is this will not be one of those summers where we go nearly 2 months without any rain as we have seen many times in the past decade. I expect showers will pop up a few times through the next couple of months; however, just remember that should we see showers, the warm, sunny, and dry days will still far outnumber the “wet” days.

I will keep a close eye out for any rain chances, but unless we have more big heatwaves or a rare summertime rainstorm (or thunderstorm outbreak) on the horizon, I probably won’t be posting a whole lot as this is our quiet time of year – not to mention it’s the one time of year I get to recharge before heading back into the classroom. 😉 🙂

Have a wonderful weekend.

Be careful and be kind to each other. 🙂

Tame and mild January

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, Weather Year 2021/2022Leave a comment

After an active December and first few days of January, the weather has really really slowed down. Tame and uneventful weather looks to continue for the next 2 weeks! There is no sign whatsoever of any cold or snowy weather, nor is there any sign of a big rain or wind storm. This image showing 24 hour rain totals illustrates this calm weather pattern quite well.

As you can see, no big rainstorms in sight.

What you can expect over the next 2 weeks:

Now through Monday: Mostly sunny and dry. A few clouds here and there, maybe some patchy fog, but totally dry. Highs 48 – 52° and lows in the low to mid 30s.

Tuesday – Thursday of next week will feature a few light showers. Enough to wet everything down a bit, but nothing more than that. These will all be very weak systems with no real impact on our daily lives.

Next Friday through much of the following week will be mostly dry, lots of sun with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, and lows in the low to mid 30s still. Like I said, very uneventful, and extremely tame.

What does this calm weather mean for the rest of winter? Well nobody can know for sure; however, I looked back at previous La Nina winters that also had slow/tame weather in January, and just about all of those years had big switches back to cooler and wetter weather in both February and March. So, I would say we are far from done with winter here. Sea surface temperature anomalies also indicate that both La Nina and the cold pool of water south of Alaska (both of which affect our weather) are still going strong. These areas of cooler water show up very well on this map.

There you have it. Calm and fairly “mild” weather will rule the day for the foreseeable future. Enjoy it while it lasts because history tells us February often times brings much different weather to our region…

December 2021

On By bryanweatherIn 2021, Extra!!, Monthly reports, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

It was a wild ride through December. I’ve got a timeline of the major events followed by a look at how we stacked up in the precip and temp departments.

Believe it or not, we had a high of 65° the very first day of the month. This image from Fox 12 Oregon shows a compilation of just some of the record high temps set on December 1st.

Nothing else interesting happened the first 10 days of December. We gradually cooled down and the snowpack very slowly began to build. Then on the 11th and 12th a powerful storm rolled in bringing gusty winds (a peak gust of 47mph to Salem), heavy rain, and mountain snow – tons of it. Within 4 days Hoodoo went from just a few inches of snow to almost 40!! Snow also fell down into the Coast Range.

Heavy rain showers lasted through the 13th. Skies cleared up and temps dropped quickly that night leading to widespread black ice Tuesday morning (the 14th). Many area schools had a 2 hour delay that day due to the icy roads. The picture below shows fresh snowfall up at Mount Hood after the storm had passed.

A second powerful and extremely dynamic storm system moved in on the 18th. Heavy precip on the cold side of the front dragged the snow level down to the valley floor in the Portland metro area dropping a couple of slushy inches of snow. Salem missed out on the snow and saw nothing more than a cold rain for this storm. Heavy rain continued through the 20th with a grand total of 4.78″ of rain in only 3 days! Lots of localized flooding along ditches, small streams and creeks.

Cold and snow dominated the final 8 days of the month. A storm system dropped straight down from Canada bringing with it cold temperatures and snow showers. Neighborhoods around Salem picked up anywhere from 5 to 10 inches over a 3 day span. This cold snap gave Salem 4 days in a row with highs only reaching the 30s. A couple of pictures of the snow cover over at Western Oregon University in Monmouth and some neighborhoods in Salem.

A heavy snow shower rolls through Independence Oregon Dec 26th, 2021.

Salem ended the month with 9.90″ of precip which is well above our average rainfall for December. This made it one of the rainiest Decembers in years coming in at 142% of normal for the month! This map shows total precip in inches for December across the region.

From looking at this you can see it was a great month for the entire west coast in terms of rainfall/precip. The graphic below shows just how far our snowpack came over the month of December.

Our warmest temp for the month was 65° on the 1st, and our coldest temp was 26° on the 31st. Salem only dropped to or below freezing 6 days this month even with the cold snap. Overall we ended December 2021 just 0.8° above average.

That officially wraps up December 2021. It was wild, but we made it! Things have really calmed down for now and they look to stay calm for the foreseeable future. Expect a small chance for just a couple of light rain showers both Tue & Wed. Thursday could end up being a little bit wetter during the morning hours, but then we dry out for Friday through at least next Monday. No sign of any big storms or snowy/icy weather.

Extended forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS, Weather Year 2021/2022Leave a comment

There are multiple items peaking my interest this evening on the weather models. I have forecast details below including an update on the Cascades. Here’s our 7 day forecast for all of us visual people first. 😉

Details and Highlights

1.) Chilly showers tonight through Friday evening with snow levels dipping close to 1000′. Could see some ice pellets and or wet snow mixing in with the heavier showers.

2.) A powerful storm is set to move in on Saturday. Saturday will be a complete washout all day long. Winds will be strong during the early morning hours with gusts around 40 to 45mph. This storm will have quite the impact across the region with even stronger winds on the coast Friday night and Saturday morning (gusts up to 65mph), plus heavy mountain snow, and heavy rain in the lowlands. Expect some really terrible travel conditions this weekend.

3.) Very low snow levels Monday – Thursday of next week with several storm systems rotating through the region all while cool air is in place. What is certain is the Cascades are going to get hammered with a ton of snow. I’m fairly confident the Coast Range will see a quite a bit of snow as well.

4.) Notice I don’t have any snowflakes on the forecast yet. Right now I’m thinking it will be a little too “warm” for snow next week with the snow level staying above 1000′, but watch for new updates in case anything changes.

5.) Watch for black ice on roads this coming week as we flirt with below freezing temperatures, especially if we have some clearing during the nights.

The Cascades

There was absolutely no snow at Hoodoo Tuesday afternoon. Mount Hood had a little in the upper most elevations, but all of this is just now beginning to change. First off, checkout just how awful our current snowpack is. As of Dec 6th the entire state was running way behind in the snow department. Fortunately, it is very early in the winter season, and as I mentioned things are changing.

Now look at how much snow is expected to fall between now and Monday night.

Some 40 – 50 inches of snow up on the mountains in only 5 days!! That is a significant amount of snow in a fairly short timeframe. Travel across the mountain passes looks terrible this weekend, so use extreme caution if you find yourself headed that way.

This parade of storms will bring much needed rain to both Oregon and California – even southern California. Meanwhile, the Sierra Nevada will see feet and feet of snow along with many of the mountain ranges out west. Overall a wonderful pattern for building the snowpack, restoring groundwater, and replenishing the drought stricken regions out here in the western US. This map shows snowfall for the entire west coast now through Wednesday.

The downside to this will be the adverse impacts on travel. I suspect we will hear of highway closures in the coming week as heavy snow blankets the mountain passes across the region. This will effect travel and the delivery of goods – another reason I am all about staying prepared with food and supplies at home. Okay, have a great evening, and keep an eye out for more updates as the weather is looking to stay active!