Category: Extra!!

The week ahead and 9/11

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

We have yet another beautiful week ahead, and I have the forecast right here, but if you have some extra time, I would appreciate if you could read some thoughts I felt like sharing. I steer clear of politics in my forecasts, and to be straight forward with you, I don’t believe I am stepping into politics all that much even in this post. In general it is forecasting weather and getting outside to enjoy it which I love so much; however, I’m not oblivious to the things going on around me, and as we approach the anniversary of 9/11, I feel it is important to share some thoughts as to why America is such a wonderful country to live in.

Here’s the next 7 days

22 years ago already. Do you remember 9/11? I wish to share a few pictures to spark our memories, because it should be more than just a saying. Let us truly never forget the loss of life and the sacrifice our brave and selfless fellow Americans displayed on that day as they tried to save others. It is good for us to feel emotional sometimes about these things in order to help us never forget.

When I see those images, and when I replay things in my mind, I ball my eyes. I cry thinking about the selflessness actions took by so many that day and the huge loss of life. The moms, dads, spouses, brothers, and sisters who never came home that day due to this evil attack. The stories of people showing love and compassion that day are also countless. Heroes on that day didn’t ask people who they voted for first before deciding if they would help. Nor did they ask what their religion was, who they were attracted to, or if they were vaccinated, or what their race was, or any other prequalifying bullshit like we see all too often today. No, they acted like regular decent human beings, and they put other people first with a touch of American heroism and selflessness. On that day we saw people helping other people out. Many people sacrificed their lives for others that day, and we honor them by learning from them, looking up to them, and remembering them.

It is important to me that we remember several things this year on the anniversary of 9/11. Let us remember those things which make America such a wonderful place to live for millions and millions of people. The next time you hear someone ripping on how awful America is, be sure to remind them how for every bad story there is out there, there are a hundred good stories of success, redemption, sacrifice for the common good, and dreams being fulfilled right here in the United States of America.

No other nation tries to do what we do. No other nation has the amount of diversity that we have. No other nation offers the same freedoms, vast tracks of beautiful wildernesses, opportunities, and potential as we have. Show me a nation that has people from all corners of the world living together with freedom like we have here. Do we muddle in world affairs too much and do we have our issues? Most certainly, but do you know what else we do as Americans? We sacrifice, we protect, we care, and we help people in need. When other countries cry out for help or when disaster strikes, we are there to help. Not only our brave men and women in uniform, but volunteers in church groups, non profits, The Peace Corps, and on and on. We are a generous nation. We don’t always get it right, but if you’re focusing only on the bad, then you are missing the whole picture.

This country for many years has been blessed, and if we stop praying for protection and if we stop thanking God for what we have both in the good times and bad, and if we turn our back on what made this country a great place in the first place, then we will fall. If we stay divided arguing over silly things or even serious things alike without ever being able to put those differences aside so we can work together, then we will fall.

We must remember to pray for our nation, pray for our leaders, support our local businesses, be friendly towards people we disagree with, and we must remember it is freedom of religion, freedom of speech, and freedom of expression which are found at our nation’s core.

We hold the power to make our country a better place. We hold more power to affect change than any government policy or politician could ever do. A friendly face, a kind word, a thoughtful tip, and a patient attitude for someone like a busy cashier or waitress can go a lot further for an individual than anything the government could ever do for that same person. It is things like those which help unite us together making us strong, but if we dwell on our differences and the negative things only, and if we continue to fight amongst ourselves, then we will fall.

It makes me so happy to go to a place like the Oregon coast and see people living their best lives enjoying nature and enjoying family, friends, and freedom. It’s in those moments when all of a sudden all those things we argue about in anger endlessly online seem to disappear. Let’s remember each of us are flawed and in need of grace. Let us also remember we all desire some of the same basic things in life: life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Let us focus on those things we have in common and let us remember there really is an evil in the world hell bent on destroying us, and how can we defeat such an evil force if we ourselves are constantly fighting and divided?

A house divided cannot stand. I think it is time we as Americans stand up united again before it is too late for this incredible land we have been blessed beyond measure to call home.

I do pray for God’s hand of protection on this land and its people. As we start a new school year, and as we enter into a new fall and winter season here in the beautiful Pacific Northwest, let us remember to pray, let us never forget how costly freedom is, and let us remember how important it is for us to be responsible with the freedoms we still have.

Thunderstorms round two

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We have a fairly good thunderstorm pattern setting up this Saturday. It’s rare to see two decent thunderstorm chances within 10 days of each other around these parts. More on storm chances in a second. Before I move on, I want to acknowledge the significant rainfall we received with the storm Thursday. Check out the rainfall totals from over the past few days.

Remember you should be able to click on images for a closer view. 🙂

Well over half an inch of rain fell across western Oregon Thursday and Friday. It appears the hard working crews out there battling wildfires burning in the Cascades made a lot of progress just in the past 48 hours thanks to the soaking rain we received. Very good news!! Now we can move onto the forecast. 🙂

Highlights

Saturday: A fairly warm and sunny day will eventually give way to some late day showers and thunderstorms. The majority of the action will take place later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Similar to last Thursday, not everyone will see a bunch of lightning and thunder, but chances are pretty good that at least some of us will experience stormy weather. These storms also have the potential to drop a lot of rain, and even some hail this time in addition to the lightning and thunder. This forecasted radar image shows some heavier showers and thunderstorms crossing the Mid Willamette Valley right around 9PM.

Don’t take the actual positions of the storms or time too literally. The main idea is some of us between Albany and Portland will see storms Saturday and Saturday night at some point between roughly 4 and 11PM.

Sunday: Lots of clouds with a couple of showers late in the day.

Monday: Slight chance for an AM shower or two. Mostly cloudy with sunbreaks later in the day.

Tue – Fri: Varying amounts of clouds and sunbreaks with highs ranging anywhere from 73 – 79° depending on cloud cover each day. Pleasant late summer/early fall weather – albeit maybe a little on the cloudy side at times. Fall is definitely around the corner! Enjoy the exciting weather if you’re “lucky” enough to see a storm, and stay safe!

End of August forecast

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Archives, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

For a number of us, this past Thursday night provided some of the best nighttime thunderstorms we have seen in a few years with numerous lightning strikes. Here is a great lightning strike which was caught by Jessica Ward looking over Proposal Rock in Neskowin last Thursday night

This map shows lightning strikes (both negative and positive) from Thursday night and Friday morning. It’s very typical for some of us to experience nothing while others see the storm of the decade. Generally speaking, the west side of the Willamette Valley saw the most action. You should be able to click on the image for a better view. If you are curious about the differences between negative and positive strikes, then follow this link for more info: Different types of lightning

Moving ahead, the next seven days feature multiple shots at precipitation (actual rain) as a cool and wetter pattern takes shape over us. In fact, today is already feeling rather fall-like with the grey skies and cooler temps. Here’s the extended forecast.

Highlights

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers – especially late in the day.

Wednesday: Slight chance of a shower or two, but a mostly dry day. Drier than Tuesday. Highs close to 80°

Thursday: Showers and more widespread light rain. Will be the coolest day since June!

Friday: Warmer with more sunbreaks, but a chance for PM showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: A near repeat of Friday, but with a tad more sun and slightly warmer high temps.

Sunday: Lower confidence. Currently, it’s looking cooler with possibly another shot at some rain.

No signs of the heat returning, but we all know September can feature pretty warm temps, so we will see what happens. Certainly much different than last year when we saw our dry summer heat and wildfires drag on right into the middle of October!

Oppressive heat

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The heat is on, and we still have a few more days of intense heat to go. The pic below showcases the extremely hot high temperatures cities from around the northwest saw Monday.

The next 7 days

Highlights

1.) Brutal heat continues for a few more days. The yucky smoky/hazy skies will also stick with us for much of the week. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night will struggle to even reach 70°.

2.) The heat lets up a little bit on Thursday with highs in the mid 90s – which is still extremely hot. Friday will be a bit closer to normal summertime weather with highs in the upper 80s.

3.) Saturday should be quite a bit cooler with partly cloudy skies.

4.) Sun & Mon: We might have a shot at some actual rain! Yes, showers are possible for Sunday and Monday. I still have those days highlighted yellow due to a higher level of uncertainty, but as of right now, I’m forecasting at least the chance for showers those two days.

There you have it. Do the best you can to stay cool and safe!

An early peek at fall and winter

On By bryanweatherIn 2023/2024, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS2 Comments

If you are here for the forecast, then I have it right here first. Basically we should have highs 90 to 95° each day through Monday the 7th before cooling back down closer to average with highs in the lower 80s next Tuesday and Wednesday. No sign of rain for now…

Up in the Cascades we do have a shot of seeing thunderstorms during the later PM hours each day Friday through Sunday. I will keep a close eye on this threat as it will be happening over the weekend. For now I’m thinking the storms stay close to the crest of the Cascades and the Cascade peaks, they should stay east of Detroit Lake, Green Peter, and the other major reservoirs. The valley and coast should stay nice and dry. That’s it for the forecast.

Okay, so it’s only the second day of August, and there is plenty of hot summer still to go; however, I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at our up coming fall and winter season. The waters off the western coast of South America near the equator have switched from cooler than normal to warmer than normal over the past 6 months. The warmer than normal waters give us what we call an El Nino pattern.

Believe it or not, the sea surface temperatures thousands of miles away really do have an effect on our weather, and I’ll go through what those impacts could look like. Just keep in mind anytime I talk about an upcoming winter season I’m providing more of an “educated guess” than an actual forecast. Basically, I look at previous years which had similar El Nino conditions, and I go from there.

So what do the odds favor for the coming fall and winter? Well, there are 5 things which really stand out to me as being more likely during this up coming El Nino winter.

1.) Higher chances for late summer/early fall rains. Do you remember last fall how we scorched during the month of September and even the first two weeks of October? I sure remember. I remember cooking in my classroom at school. The odds of something similar happening again on a similar scale this year are smaller. We could very likely still see late season heat, but odds favor that such heat would not last for weeks on end through the fall like it did last year.

2.) El Nino winters tend to give Salem near average precipitation, but in a more “boom or bust” type fashion. El Nino winters often times produce significant rainfall over short periods of time leading to some flooding. You may recall me saying in the past that La Nina winters are the ones which give us our largest floods, and that is still true. The most important difference between many of our El Nino floods and La Nina floods is the snowpack in the mountains. The mountain snowpack during a La Nina winter tends to be pretty healthy (above normal), so when heavy rains arrive, there is usually plenty of snow to melt which adds to the flooding. El Nino winters tend to have a smaller snowpack due to warmer than usual temperatures. This minimizes the flooding usually just enough to prevent major widespread flooding. Clear as mud right?? 😉 🙂 Bottom line: expect some significant rainstorms this fall and winter and some flooding issues, but hopefully any major flooding can be avoided.

3.) Warmer overall. I expect this winter to end up being on the mild side. A cold El Nino around these parts has happened before, but is very, very rare. Again, for comparison, last winter was colder than normal when all the months were accounted for. We could easily have a cold arctic blast this winter, but in the end, I imagine we would still end up milder than average.

4.) Most El Nino winters end up producing a close to normal snowpack in the mountains, but because these winters tend to be milder, the snowpack rarely exceeds average by any significant amount. The bad news is that due to the warmer rain events, the snowpack does not typically stay “in tact” throughout the entire winter as well as it does during a La Nina. I’ve seen a healthy snowpack disappear quickly during an El Nino winter, before slowly building back up weeks later. Plan on a decent ski season, but probably not top tier.

5.) Speaking of snow, snow in the Willamette Valley is a huge wildcard during El Nino. During a La Nina winter, snow in Salem is a basically a guarantee as just about every La Nina produces at least some measurable snowfall here in Salem. The same cannot be said about El Nino though. We are closer to 50/50 when it comes to snow during an El Nino winter, so we will see what happens.

Again, these are all just guesses and trends I see based off of what took place in previous El Nino winters of similar strength to the one we are expected to see. It’s always exciting to see what actually unfolds, and of course it’s even more fun when you’re tuned in to Salem’s best and most handsome forecaster. 😉

Thankfully it’s back to summer for now, so enjoy it while it lasts.

The middle of summer

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS, Weather Year 2022/2023Leave a comment

It may be hard to believe, but with the exception of a few brief rainy days, western Oregon has largely been dry and warm since mid April. We are now in the heart of summertime here in the Willamette Valley. We have one item to address and that is a chance for some light showers next Monday and Tuesday.

Summer in Salem is a reliably dry time, but it’s normal to have a drippy day mixed in every great once in awhile, and that’s pretty much what is happening for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Here’s our extended forecast:

I don’t have raindrops on Tuesday, but don’t be shocked if a few fall from the sky that day too. Monday however, will feature the primary shower threat. Notice it’s right back to summer afterwards.

Sometimes it can be interesting to look back into the past for a glimpse at the larger picture as it can offer us a different perspective. This first chart shows total rainfall for each July here in Salem going back to 1970.

The wetter Julys back in the 70s and 80s versus the consistently dry Julys since the 90s really stands out to me. If you are a long term resident of Salem, than maybe you remember Julys being a little bit “rainier” than what we have seen lately, and you would be right. Between 1970 and 1993, we had six years where our July rainfall topped the one inch mark, but we have not topped one inch since ’93 – going on 30 years of Julys having less than an inch of rain. Seems like a drying trend, and to it is, but were Julys always wetter in the past????

Check out this next chart which shows total July rainfall by decade:

Seems like the 70s and 80s were more of an anomaly, and not so much “the usual.” The Julys of the 1950s saw a cumulative rainfall total almost identical to the total saw in the 2010s. July has always been (in my opinion) the peak summer month. Days are long with daylight stretching well into the evenings (which I love), and the weather is reliably dry and warm. August of course is a great month too, but those late evenings start to shorten a bit, and of course there is the “well known” idea that it always rains during the State Fair. We really are in the heart of summer right now. The cool and possibly drippy downturn next week will be very short lived, and before anyone knows it, we will be right back into the 80s. Enjoy and stay safe! 🙂

Dry summer like weather

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

Summer arrived super early this year. We have hit or surpassed the 90 degree mark 5 times so far this spring with the first occurrence happening back on April 28th when we hit 91°. We reached it 3 days in May with two of those days topping out at 93°F. I remember those days well as we cooked in our classrooms at work, and then just last week we hit 91 on Tuesday. Overall May was a very warm month ending 4.2° above normal!

The more concerning issue has been the extremely dry weather. Since May 6th, we have only seen a sprinkle here or there, but nothing widespread. If we don’t see some good soaking rains soon, it could be a really tough summer. Salem ended the month of May with only 27% of our usual rainfall! Adding more evidence to the case, check out this map showing total rainfall over the past 30 days.

Western Oregon is one of the driest locations on this map. Heck, even Death Valley, California has picked up more rain than us during this span of time, so you can see why we could be in trouble if we don’t get some good rain soon.

Extended Forecast

We will see if it actually rains next weekend, but for now enjoy the warm and dry weather the best you can. 🙂