Category: Extra!!

Weather statistics and a winter outlook

On By bryanweatherIn 2024/2025, Extra!!, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

If you want the forecast, then read this top portion, but if you’re in a reading mood than check out the rest of this post. It’s always an exciting time of year as a forecaster around here. Fall is upon us, we are entering into our storm season, and soon we will be entering into the time of year when snow and cold also become possible. I have a wide gamut of details and fun facts below, but first, the forecast.

Expect showers and sunbreaks on Thursday with increasing amounts of sun later in the day. Highs in the upper 50s to 60°.

Friday looks dry and partly cloudy. High of 59°. Saturday should be a super nice fall day. Patchy fog to begin the morning followed by afternoon sunshine and highs in the low 70s.

Sunday should also be quite mild and nice, and will likely top 70 degrees again. This weekend will probably be our final set of 70 degree days for the season, so enjoy them!! Rain moves in Sunday evening and lasts through Monday. Highs on Monday in the mid 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday of next week look dry, with sunny afternoons, but chilly and possibly foggy mornings. Lows will also be the coldest they have been all fall down to the upper 30s.

No big storms, no major cold spells, and nothing unusual for the time being.

Weather statistics and the winter ahead

October 1st is the beginning of the new “weather year,” also known as our “water year” for most locations in the western US. It makes sense to have our rainy season fall into one “year” for record keeping as opposed to interrupting our rainy season every January 1st at the start of our calendar year.

To begin with, I wanted to see how this past year compared with previous years in regards to both precip and temperatures. I also wanted to provide a few thoughts for our upcoming winter season.

Let’s start with the precipitation. Check out this graph showing total precipitation for each water year in Salem Oregon going back to the winter of 2003/2004.

The primary take away is that Salem is rainy lol! It is interesting though how we get our rain one way or another year after year after year regardless of how much the climate may be changing. In fact, one could go back to the late 1800s and early 1900s when our official records began, and you would see extremely similar totals.

For the time being, there is no trend in any direction with precip. There are a few dry years mixed in where we didn’t reach 30 inches, but notice how they are always proceeded by and or followed by a wetter year. Our rain is what keeps this area so beautiful, so remember that later this winter when the rain starts to grow old.

Next let’s look at the total number of days per winter where highs stayed below 40°.

The first thing to point out is the data for 02/03 is not missing. That sad, sad winter really did not have even a single sub 40 degree day. I remember that pathetic winter as a kid. Not even one snowflake fell at our house the entire winter. A huge disappointment for someone who loves snow so much.

The second thing I noticed was how it’s been awhile since we have had a really cold winter, and by that I mean a winter where we experience at least 10 or more days below 40 degrees. Sure, last winter provided us with some extreme cold; however, looking at the total number of days below 40 reveals just how brief and isolated the cold spell was in what was actually a very mild winter. Compare last winter to the winter of 2016/2017 which delivered snow and ice multiple times from December through March, and had a grand total of 22 days with highs below 40°. Perhaps this winter is the year we finally see some prolonged cold again.

The third item I wish to point out is the fact that three of the four lowest totals on the chart were El Nino winters. Currently, we are entering a weak La Nina (more on that below), so I believe we will see at least several days this winter where the thermometer does not reach 40 degrees.

Overall there’s definitely more variability when it comes to cold weather around here than with the precip, but now it’s time to unburden ourselves from what has been. Did I use that phrase correctly??? Anyway, time to talk about what could be in store this coming La Nina winter.

Our up coming winter

We are entering a weak La Nina which means the waters off the west coast of South America are cooler than normal. There are a few other regions of the ocean I look at when finding analog years to compare to. Generally, I look for past winters which had similar ocean conditions as it’s the oceans which really drive our weather.

The map below is a composite of surface temperature anomalies for all the years which had similar ocean surface temperatures. Darker blues are much colder than normal areas, and the red and oranges are much warmer than normal areas.

There is a clear signal for colder weather in the pacific northwest during December through February. This tells me we have an elevated chance for colder weather and longer lasting cool weather too. No guarantees, but the deck is stacked in our favor for cooler weather.

Next we have precip anomalies for the same set of previous winters. There is a clear trend for western Oregon to experience a wetter winter when all is said and done.

Big take aways

I expect our upcoming winter to provide more opportunities for lowland snow.  This is something which can be misleading.  More opportunities doesn’t always equal lots of snow for a given location in the Willamette Valley.  It just means you will likely see snow in the forecast more often than compared to last winter (an El Nino winter), and with those increased opportunities comes increased chances of scoring some decent snowfall. 

Last winter really was quite mild with only one big exception. That exception of course being the extremely cold and intense winter storm we saw in January.  For nearly 5 days our temperatures stayed below freezing.  During that time frame we experienced the sleet/ice storm followed by a few days of very cold weather and then a brief freezing rain event that Tuesday; however, the rest of the winter was fairly mild both in the months leading up to that storm, and in the weeks to follow. I distinctly remember sharing this photo at the end of last December revealing the dismal snowpack at Timberline due to the warmer weather.

This leads directly into my second point which is I expect the ski season and mountain snowpack to do fairly well this winter. La Nina keeps us on the cooler side of the jet stream more often allowing the snowpack to build up at a better rate. The chart above reminds us just how awful the snowpack was for much of last winter, and that was due to us being on the warmer side of the jet stream for a majority of the ski season.

The final piece (which I’ve shared before) is how a La Nina winters often provide us with the correct setup for major flooding on the Willamette River. I’m not predicting it, but it’s also not a coincidence that the vast majority of our highest river crests on the Willamette have occurred during a La Nina winter. I have shared this before, and it’s still up to date I believe.

It’s also a really good reminder to be ready and prepared for a natural disaster as much as possible, and assume you may be on your own for a period of time following a flood or any other type of disaster for that matter.

The main message is expect more opportunities for snow, higher chances of seeing cold weather, a decent ski season and mountain snowpack, and an elevated chance at seeing major flooding.

Stay safe, stay healthy, and enjoy the weather regardless of what it brings! 🙂

Terrible wildfires and some really good news

On By bryanweatherIn 2023/2024, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Nearly three weeks of intense heat earlier this month coupled with dry thunderstorms has lead to a devastating wildfire situation here in Oregon. Add in a few human caused fires (unfortunately), plus a rather poor forest management system, and just like that, we are in the midst of a terrible fire season. It may not feel devastating to us here in the Willamette Valley as we are not having ash or thick smoke descending upon us as in past years; but numerous large fires are occurring, and this map here shows them well.

Here’s a link to where this map came from in case you’re interested in learning more: https://projects.oregonlive.com/wildfires/map

Again, this is largely a result of brutal heat followed by multiple rounds of thunderstorms which put out lots of lightning. I remember when summer began nice and slow back in June providing hope we might escape the large fires this year; however, things changed fast and not for the better.

I felt it was important to share just how bad things are as I’ve noticed many people here in Salem have been rather oblivious to the current fire situation due to the lack of thick smoke. Salem is also currently on track for the warmest July on record. As of the 24th, we were an astounding seven degrees above normal for the month, but with “cooler” summertime weather forecasted for the remainder of July, we will see where we end up.

Much better news ahead!!!

Here is the really good news. We have a rare summertime “rainstorm” heading our way for next week. Indeed this is very rare to see in the dead of summer, but models are pretty set on Salem seeing widespread measurable rain next Monday and Tuesday.

Details

Now through Sunday: AM clouds with mostly sunny afternoons. Very comfortable temperatures each day with highs ranging from 82 to 88°.

Monday: The morning should start off dry, but showers and even some rain will move in during the afternoon and will last through the evening. Highs in the mid 70s.

Tuesday: A few showers with sunbreaks in between. Some showers could be on the heavier side. Highs again in the mid 70s.

Wed – Sun: The remainder of the following week will be warm, mostly sunny, and dry. Fairly normal summer weather. Highs on the upper end of “normal” topping out in the upper 80s to near 90°. Lows in the mid 50s.

Summertime rain not associated with thunderstorms is very rare. The warm atmosphere, the stabilizing effect of the Pacific Ocean, and an extremely weak summertime jet stream in the northern Pacific all provide us with reliably dry summers. It’s true our summers have turned hotter and drier in recent years, but truth is, they have (for as long as we know) always been reliably warm and dry. I’m interested to see how this storm develops and how much rain we actually get out of it. To put into perspective how rare a rainy July day is around these parts, take a look at this graph below. It shows total rainfall here in Salem for the month of July going back to 1970.

Three things stand out to me:

1.) We had some unusually wet Julys in the 80s. Imagine the rough tomato crops those years. 😦

2.) Dry Julys are nothing new. If you go back even further in time, you would notice that Salem had four complete dry Julys during the decade of the 1950s.

3.) Rain in July has become less common over the past 25 years.

This won’t show on the graph, but 2019 was the last time we had more than a quarter inch of rain in one day during the month of July which again speaks to the rareness of this event. Of course it hasn’t happened yet, but odds are high we will pick up at least some rain next week.

Take care! 🙂

Soggy weather update and April in review

On By bryanweatherIn 2023/2024, Extra!!, Monthly reports, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

What a soggy and wet weekend we just had. Salem has picked up nearly two inches of rain between Friday and Sunday, and actually Salem set a new rainfall record back on Saturday for the most rain recorded on that date with a full inch falling just on that day alone.

My previous forecast for Monday and Tuesday remain on track with Monday standing the best chance for thundershowers and big downpours, and Tuesday standing the best chance for some dry weather. We dry out and warm up for the remainder of the week. More on that at the end of this post.

April 2024

April 2024 was a drier month, but with almost perfectly average temperatures. Nothing really exciting happened. We had our usual brief downpours of heavy rain and in some instances – hail, but that is to be expected, and it was far less than we have seen in past Aprils. In the end we had just 60% of our average total precipitation for the month. For temperatures, we ended -0.1° cooler than average, so basically right on the dot. Salem did have a late season freeze on April 17th the official airport temperature reading recorded a low of 32°. Our warmest temp of the month was a high of 75 degrees which took place both on April 2nd and April 23rd.

Thunderstorm info and look ahead

Things to watch for in the coming months include thunderstorm threats, heatwaves, the annual end of our spring showers and storms, and the beginning of our extremely stable warm and dry summertime pattern.

I do have a fun thunderstorm chart for you all which is curtesy of Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon. It’s true we don’t see very many thunderstorms in the Willamette Valley, and when we do experience them it’s often times a quick rumble or two and nothing more. Despite that, we do have a thunderstorm season here, and this chart below illustrates those seasons (circled on here) by showing the percentage of years lighting was observed in Multnomah County for any given hour of the year per week. For example, 7% of the years analyzed had lighting in Multnomah County during the 9pm hour in the first week of February. Check it out and click for a larger view.

As you can see, there are two distinct thunderstorm seasons here – albeit not very impressive seasons when compared to say Arizona or Florida. Nonetheless, we are currently in our peak thunderstorm season, and will be through most of June.

A second thing which caught my eye is the slight uptick in lightning occurrences during the overnight hours in summer. Salem’s best shot at nighttime lightning goes from roughly July 1st through the first week of September and you can see that represented on the chart.

I’m definitely curious and a little excited (as always) to see how much – if any thunderstorm action we get over the rest of this spring and summer season. Right now we have a shot at some brief thundershower action Monday, and maybe Tuesday before drying out and warming up with no rain or thunderstorm threats afterwards for at least several days. I’ve upped our high temperatures for Friday and Saturday with daytime temps reaching 83 to 85°. Highs on Sunday should still be back into the low 80s. The dry weather should dominate most of next week as well, but if any rain threats pop up I should have adequate time to inform you all.

Have a great Monday, stay safe, and keep an eye out for any lightning you might be lucky enough to spot. 🙂

Rainy weather recap

On By bryanweatherIn 2023/2024, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Well we made it through several really rainy days earlier this week, we briefly dried out, and now we are staring down another hefty rainstorm for this weekend. Details in a minute, but first, a quick glance at how we did in terms of total precip during our stretch of rainy weather.

Rainfall was persistent, but rarely was it real heavy, and certainly never for very long which allowed Salem to escape any big flooding issues. There was some flooding of parking lots, a few streets, and a couple parks around town, but nothing significant. In the end it honestly felt like regular rainy Oregon weather, but with a mild touch to it. This past Monday and Tuesday both saw highs in the low 60s here in Salem which is WAY above normal for this time of year!

Flooding was more severe out in the Coast Range and along the coast specifically areas near both Tillamook and Seaside.

A typical 7 day stretch this time of year would give us around 1.65″ of rain, so receiving over 5 inches of rain over the same time frame is definitely on the excessive side of things. However, for you “old timers” (this includes me haha), the major floods of February 1996 gave Salem over 8 inches of rain in only 4 days, so it puts our recent deluge into perspective a little.

Here are three pictures from the flooding this past week. One is of some minor street flooding here in Salem, another is of a flooded house near Garibaldi along the coast, and the other is of a landslide which occurred in Portland.

The forecast

Saturday: A cool and cloudy day with rain much of the day. Temps in the upper 30s to low 40s all day long with rain at times. Chilly and rainy – the best of both worlds… 😉

Sunday: Rainy. Expect a full inch plus of rainfall between Saturday and Sunday. Yes, the rain is returning in full force, and it will be on the heavier side at times.

Mon – Wed: Dry. Fog is likely in some areas, especially locations away from the Columbia River Gorge. If we don’t see fog, then expect beautiful sunny skies, and chilly nights. Highs in the upper 40s and lows around freezing.

Thu: Some rain overnight Wednesday will last into Thursday morning. Dry during the afternoon.

Fri: Dry. Highs in the upper 40s and lows around 30 to 32°.

The Cascades

The Cascades and our local ski resorts are having a rough go of it so far. It’s definitely early in the season still, but the warmer rainstorms we keep on seeing are making it tough to hang onto a good snowpack. Hoodoo went from no snow on the ground on November 29th, to 2 feet of snow on December 2nd, back down to an inch this past Wednesday, and now they are back up to having nearly 20 inches! Phew, what a ride, but wait, there’s more haha!! The rain coming in this weekend is associated with a very warm airmass which means more rain in the mountains. It will be interesting to see how much snow survives this incoming storm. I snagged a cam shot showing how it looked late this afternoon.

That’s all for today. Once we get through the storm this weekend I really don’t see anything overly interesting for awhile. Stay safe, and enjoy the weekend! 🙂

Rainstorm update

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We have seen fairly typical Oregon style rainfall the past few days, but things are going to turn much wetter real soon. Before I jump into the latest forecast, I have a fun little development for the weather website to share with you. I now have an email you can use to send in weather related photos or videos for use on this website. In the past I’ve had people send content to both my work and personal emails, through text, on FB, Instagram, and even Snapchat, and I’m definitely still okay with those methods by the way. 🙂 😉 This simply makes it more official plus it is a great option for people who are not connected to me by phone or email. My hope is to get pictures or videos throughout the year regardless of the type of weather we are having. I’ve always loved receiving pictures from you all, especially during snow events, and it would be awesome to see even more fun updates now that I have an official weather alert email address. 🙂 The email is: bryanweatheralerts@gmail.com

Back to the forecast

As of this early afternoon, Hoodoo had almost exactly 2 feet of snow on the ground. Check out this image from earlier today showing the same spot I showed you just a few days ago.

Much of this snow is about to get washed away unfortunately as series of warm and powerful moisture laden storm systems take aim right at Oregon. Snow levels will rise tonight above 7000 feet which means rain for the ski resorts.

The past few days we have seen typical rainfall totals. Remember I said I was expecting between 5 and 6 inches of rainfall in Salem by next Thursday, well I’m keeping track on a fun little chart I wanted to share here. We will see how close we get to that total when all is said and done.

Keep in mind we have rainfall moving in tonight which will change today’s total. With a weather system like this, we are dealing more with an uncontrolled firehose than a more predictable storm like we typically see around here. Pinpointing the exact time and location of the heaviest rain more than a couple of days out is extra tricky with an “atmospheric river” like this. What we do know is over the next several days, it will be pointed directly at us at various times.

Tonight and Sunday: A full on washout. Constant rain with periods of heavier rain mixed in. Some localized flooding is possible.

Monday: Could end up being a milder version of today. Lots of clouds with some rain, but dry times in between. Highs close to 60°.

Tuesday – Wednesday: More steady precip with occasional bouts of heavier rain. An increased potential for some minor flooding during this time frame for creeks, streams, and any low laying areas. The saturated ground will make these two days stand the highest chance of seeing flooding issues this week.

Thursday and Friday: Back to regular Pacific Northwest rainy weather with cooler temperatures and snow returning to the mountains. Depending on how things play out, ski resorts might be able to open up next weekend if they can receive enough snowfall during these two days, but time will tell.

It’s staying active out there which means I’ll do my best to keep you all updated. Keep those drains clear and watch out if you live in a flood prone area. 🙂

The encyclopedia of weather info

On By bryanweatherIn 2023/2024, Archives, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Hahaha! Welcome to the longest post I’ve probably ever written! I cover a lot of content in this post, and it is organized in the following order: 1.) the forecast, 2.) my thoughts on this upcoming winter, 3.) a little lesson on inversions and why we have them in winter, and then lastly, 4.) a little reminder on how ensembles work. This post has been days in the making and it’s long. If you only want the forecast then read just the top portion only, but if you want something long to read, then keep on going!! Because of all the content I have in this post, I recommend you view it from the website itself to ensure the best experience specifically with the slider tools. Here’s a link to the website: https://bryanweatheralert.com/

The forecast

The weather has remained fairly calm and stable the past few days. Cold nights and mornings followed by decently mild afternoons, and this will continue for a few more days. The mornings will especially continue to be downright cold. Lows in the Salem area this Sunday morning ranged from 27 to 30 degrees depending on location. That would be cold even by December standards, so considering the fact that it’s not even November yet makes it all the more impressive.

The forecast is pretty cut and dry as we remain in this cool, but clear and sunny pattern through Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon and evening could be damp with showers moving in. Thursday marks a distinct switch to much rainier and stormier weather. In fact, Thursday is looking like a real soaker! This means you all need to get out and enjoy the dry and sunny weather while it is with us.

My winter outlook thoughts

Many experts gathered Saturday (the 28th) up at OMSI for an annual winter weather forecasting meeting. Presenters often review how well their forecasts turned out from the previous winter before taking a stab at the upcoming winter season. Interesting to say the least.

I don’t really forecast what a whole winter will bring as I think there are far too many variables; however, I get asked a lot and it is sort of fun guess. I look at a wide range of data including current trends, past years which had similar sea surface temperature anomalies, past years with similar upper level patterns, and other factors. Years with similarities are known as analog years. These analog years helps steer my best guess for an upcoming winter more than anything else. Way back in the beginning of August I gave a peak at what MIGHT lay ahead. I actually feel like that guess has held up quite well with a link to my forecast from August if you wish to review how I have faired so far. Today I figured I would just add to that guess refining it some since this is the time of year when all the “experts” give their best guesses haha.

For starters, it’s important to remember that we are in an El Nino pattern across the globe. This is based largely off of the sea surface temperatures west of equatorial South America, and yes, this does have an effect on the weather around the world including right here in Oregon. Based on the various factors I take into account, this is what I’m thinking for the months of November through March:

1.) Near average precip. NOAA and the NWS both will show and share maps on social media indicating we have a dry winter on the way, but I have to disagree. I really think we will end up right near average for precipitation when all is said and done. Many of these El Nino winters end up having one or maybe two months of very wet weather with the rest of the months being on the drier side of things. Add everything together and we end up near average. Again, just my best guess. Below is a fun map showing the climate divisions of the continental United States. This map takes precipitation data from previous years I manually plugged into it. The years I chose are all decent analog years – in my opinion.

Notice how the Willamette Valley in particular has no coloring. This indicates that most of these years ended up somewhere close to average when it come to rainfall/melted snow. This is why I’m leaning towards a fairly average year in the rainfall category.

2.) Warmer than normal temps. This guess is not due to any climate change affects. Afterall, we just had a colder than normal winter last winter which falls more in line with a typical La Nina winter. Unfortunately, we are not in La Nina, instead we have the wild “older” brother El Nino, and El Nino winters consistently end up on the warmer side of average. Warmer than average does not mean no snow or arctic blasts, nor does it mean a bad ski season which I will address in point number 3.

This next map shows how each climate division of the country faired in regards to temperature during these analog years. You may notice the Willamette Valley has no “warm coloring” and that is mainly due to the very cold temperatures from one of these analog years sort of throwing off the rest (1972). Fun fact, Salem’s coldest temperature ever recorded took place in December 1972 when it dropped to negative 12 degrees Fahrenheit! All the other years by and large ended up slightly warmer than average. I also consider other global patterns and conditions when I make these guesses, and I have a feeling this year will end up on the slightly warmer side. 1972 is just proof that exceptions do happen.

3.) Expect a decent ski year, but not top tier. El Nino can be notorious for a few things. The first being that unlike their counterpart “La Nina,” El Nino winters rarely have big snowpacks in lower elevation mountains like the Coast Range or foothill locations like Idanha or Detroit. Two, the snow is typically on the wetter side versus being more powdery, and this is due to the slightly warmer nature of the storms. It takes a colder airmass to produce real powdery snow, and while it does happen in El Nino winters, typically warmer storm systems are not far behind.

One other note is some of our very worst ski seasons have taken place during weak El Nino winters, but this is not a weak El Nino by any means. This El Nino will go down as a moderate to strong one which does change things, and this brings me to another point. I find it lazy that these national weather and forecasting services don’t take a few minutes to distinguish between the effects of weak and strong El Ninos. Use the slider tool to see the differences between the weak and strong El Nino winters.

There is a significant difference between weak and strong El Ninos, and so it is discouraging to see a broad brushed and effortless maps like this one below from NOAA shared all over the internet. Some of these people are getting paid 6 digit figures to make these forecasts, and this is the best they can do?? When you look at the actual data, like the data I just provided, there is nothing to support that Alaska, the west coast, the mid west, and the eastern seaboard all have higher probabilities of seeing a warmer than normal winter during the same winter.

Again, to help illustrate the differences between weak and strong El Nino winters, check out the differences in precipitation patterns during both weak and strong El Nino winters.

The Pacific Northwest stands a much better chance at seeing regular rainfall totals during the stronger El Nino events.

4.) Many of these El Nino winters had a lot of weather action right in the heart of winter – think December and January including arctic blasts and snow events. I feel we have an increased chance of seeing snow and cold during these two months whereas in other years it seems February has been the month for snow and ice.

Final thoughts

Expect very rainy and stormy periods (this includes elevated chances for significant windstorms also) to balance out the dry times this winter. When all is said and done, Salem should end up close to average for precip. Expect a relatively warmer than usual winter. Expect a decent ski season, but not a top tier season, and lastly, I expect we will see some sort of snow, ice and or arctic blast this winter, but as mentioned earlier, the chances are higher these wintry events will take place in December or January.

One big wildcard is February. There seems to be a clear trend for more snow and ice events in February than what we saw in the past. As we stand today, 5 of the past 7 winters have been La Ninas which tend to provide more optimal conditions for February snow, but one of the past 7 years 2018/2019) was an El Nino and it also gave Salem and the Willamette Valley a cold and snowy February, so what is going on? Is February becoming snowier, or was February 2019 an exception? Afterall, there have always been exceptions to the rules “insert 1972” lol. So yes, I’m curious to see what transpires this winter. These next two images are curtesy of Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon. He regularly does a nice job of explaining what is going on with the weather, and he does a fantastic job of putting together graphics which is why he has always been hands down my favorite go to TV weather person.

163 versus 142.2 inches of snow.

Make sure to use the slider tool to get the full experience haha! Two things stand out to me with one being the total amount of snow did go down by about 20 inches between these two time frames which is fairly significant. Two, look at the drastic change in snowfall for February! Big shift upward there, so again, I’m extremely curious to see what happens this winter. I guess a third thing I noticed is there has been less snow in November lately. November snow has always been rare, but 2011 and then going back to 2006 are the last two years we widespread valley snowfall in November, and neither of those years brought very much. One of these years one would expect to see a good early season November snow event….

Welcome to Inversion season!

Every fall it happens. The sun grows weaker and weaker, and the days grow shorter and shorter causing a phenomenon known as an “inversion.” Inversions take place due to several factors: 1.) Cold air is denser/heavier than warm air which causes it to sink to the surface. 2.) A weak sun angle cannot sufficiently warm the surface during this time of year (now through February). 3.) The days are also shorter which further limits how effective the sun is at warming us up. 4.) Consequently, shorter days equals longer nights of course, so we start out cooler and cooler as fall goes on.

The upper level air pattern which will be in place for Monday is almost identical to the pattern which brought us 80+ degree weather just a few weeks ago and which brought us 90 degree weather back in September, so it’s absolutely amazing to me how the length of the days and the angle of the sun can drastically alters the weather we experience in Salem. Here’s a nice little visual for all the visual learners out there. This just shows how much the angle of the sun drops from summer to winter. This is also why we can have days where the fog never burns off or goes away completely. The sun is just too weak to burn it off this time of year.

Ensembles

Want to keep reading? I’m really on a roll with this post, so why stop now? Haha! Every year or so I like to share charts like this one below to help illustrate how “ensembles” work, and how important of a role they play in forecasting the weather. Ensembles are a collection of all the different forecasts any given computer model has generated. For the most part, I rely more heavily on a European weather forecasting model than on any of the American models. Gasp! I love America, and you all know that about me; however, our weather models are just not to speed with the Europeans. I guess we are too busy with important issues like trying to decide which bathrooms people should use lol, but I digress…. Anyway, these computer models spit out a range of possible outcomes for the weather usually two or four times a day.

An ensemble chart like the one below shows 51 possible outcomes counting a “control” run. These 51 possible outcomes give forecasters a better idea of what will actually happen versus looking at an individual run. Unfortunately many apps and forecasters out there are base their forecasts off of individual runs rather than trends in the ensembles. This is why (especially in winter) your weather apps can swing wildly from rain to sun to showers to snow and back to sun again within a few days. Time goes from left to right on the chart below with each individual horizontal line representing one possible outcome. This specific chart shows 24 hour precipitation, but with some overlap between 12 hour periods, so focus on the general theme and not as much on the actual numbers.

From looking at this chart there are three things which really stand out: 1.) We will stay dry through Wednesday. 2.) The rain returns in full force by Thursday November 2nd. 3.) We stay in a wet pattern through at least the 13th with no sign of a big break in the rain. I’m sure we will see a couple dry days mixed in; however, we are clearly headed into a long stretch of rainy and stormy weather, so buckle up!

I hope this all was interesting for you! Yes, it was a LONG read, but I tried to pack it with a lot of “fun” information, and I felt like right before winter was an appropriate time to do it. I don’t know about you, but I think we are ready for winter now haha! 🙂

Take care, stay safe, enjoy the dry weather, be ready for a soaking on Thursday, and look for another update probably late in the week. 🙂

The week ahead and 9/11

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

We have yet another beautiful week ahead, and I have the forecast right here, but if you have some extra time, I would appreciate if you could read some thoughts I felt like sharing. I steer clear of politics in my forecasts, and to be straight forward with you, I don’t believe I am stepping into politics all that much even in this post. In general it is forecasting weather and getting outside to enjoy it which I love so much; however, I’m not oblivious to the things going on around me, and as we approach the anniversary of 9/11, I feel it is important to share some thoughts as to why America is such a wonderful country to live in.

Here’s the next 7 days

22 years ago already. Do you remember 9/11? I wish to share a few pictures to spark our memories, because it should be more than just a saying. Let us truly never forget the loss of life and the sacrifice our brave and selfless fellow Americans displayed on that day as they tried to save others. It is good for us to feel emotional sometimes about these things in order to help us never forget.

When I see those images, and when I replay things in my mind, I ball my eyes. I cry thinking about the selflessness actions took by so many that day and the huge loss of life. The moms, dads, spouses, brothers, and sisters who never came home that day due to this evil attack. The stories of people showing love and compassion that day are also countless. Heroes on that day didn’t ask people who they voted for first before deciding if they would help. Nor did they ask what their religion was, who they were attracted to, or if they were vaccinated, or what their race was, or any other prequalifying bullshit like we see all too often today. No, they acted like regular decent human beings, and they put other people first with a touch of American heroism and selflessness. On that day we saw people helping other people out. Many people sacrificed their lives for others that day, and we honor them by learning from them, looking up to them, and remembering them.

It is important to me that we remember several things this year on the anniversary of 9/11. Let us remember those things which make America such a wonderful place to live for millions and millions of people. The next time you hear someone ripping on how awful America is, be sure to remind them how for every bad story there is out there, there are a hundred good stories of success, redemption, sacrifice for the common good, and dreams being fulfilled right here in the United States of America.

No other nation tries to do what we do. No other nation has the amount of diversity that we have. No other nation offers the same freedoms, vast tracks of beautiful wildernesses, opportunities, and potential as we have. Show me a nation that has people from all corners of the world living together with freedom like we have here. Do we muddle in world affairs too much and do we have our issues? Most certainly, but do you know what else we do as Americans? We sacrifice, we protect, we care, and we help people in need. When other countries cry out for help or when disaster strikes, we are there to help. Not only our brave men and women in uniform, but volunteers in church groups, non profits, The Peace Corps, and on and on. We are a generous nation. We don’t always get it right, but if you’re focusing only on the bad, then you are missing the whole picture.

This country for many years has been blessed, and if we stop praying for protection and if we stop thanking God for what we have both in the good times and bad, and if we turn our back on what made this country a great place in the first place, then we will fall. If we stay divided arguing over silly things or even serious things alike without ever being able to put those differences aside so we can work together, then we will fall.

We must remember to pray for our nation, pray for our leaders, support our local businesses, be friendly towards people we disagree with, and we must remember it is freedom of religion, freedom of speech, and freedom of expression which are found at our nation’s core.

We hold the power to make our country a better place. We hold more power to affect change than any government policy or politician could ever do. A friendly face, a kind word, a thoughtful tip, and a patient attitude for someone like a busy cashier or waitress can go a lot further for an individual than anything the government could ever do for that same person. It is things like those which help unite us together making us strong, but if we dwell on our differences and the negative things only, and if we continue to fight amongst ourselves, then we will fall.

It makes me so happy to go to a place like the Oregon coast and see people living their best lives enjoying nature and enjoying family, friends, and freedom. It’s in those moments when all of a sudden all those things we argue about in anger endlessly online seem to disappear. Let’s remember each of us are flawed and in need of grace. Let us also remember we all desire some of the same basic things in life: life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Let us focus on those things we have in common and let us remember there really is an evil in the world hell bent on destroying us, and how can we defeat such an evil force if we ourselves are constantly fighting and divided?

A house divided cannot stand. I think it is time we as Americans stand up united again before it is too late for this incredible land we have been blessed beyond measure to call home.

I do pray for God’s hand of protection on this land and its people. As we start a new school year, and as we enter into a new fall and winter season here in the beautiful Pacific Northwest, let us remember to pray, let us never forget how costly freedom is, and let us remember how important it is for us to be responsible with the freedoms we still have.