Nearly three weeks of intense heat earlier this month coupled with dry thunderstorms has lead to a devastating wildfire situation here in Oregon. Add in a few human caused fires (unfortunately), plus a rather poor forest management system, and just like that, we are in the midst of a terrible fire season. It may not feel devastating to us here in the Willamette Valley as we are not having ash or thick smoke descending upon us as in past years; but numerous large fires are occurring, and this map here shows them well.
Again, this is largely a result of brutal heat followed by multiple rounds of thunderstorms which put out lots of lightning. I remember when summer began nice and slow back in June providing hope we might escape the large fires this year; however, things changed fast and not for the better.
I felt it was important to share just how bad things are as I’ve noticed many people here in Salem have been rather oblivious to the current fire situation due to the lack of thick smoke. Salem is also currently on track for the warmest July on record. As of the 24th, we were an astounding seven degrees above normal for the month, but with “cooler” summertime weather forecasted for the remainder of July, we will see where we end up.
Much better news ahead!!!
Here is the really good news. We have a rare summertime “rainstorm” heading our way for next week. Indeed this is very rare to see in the dead of summer, but models are pretty set on Salem seeing widespread measurable rain next Monday and Tuesday.
Details
Now through Sunday: AM clouds with mostly sunny afternoons. Very comfortable temperatures each day with highs ranging from 82 to 88°.
Monday: The morning should start off dry, but showers and even some rain will move in during the afternoon and will last through the evening. Highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday: A few showers with sunbreaks in between. Some showers could be on the heavier side. Highs again in the mid 70s.
Wed – Sun: The remainder of the following week will be warm, mostly sunny, and dry. Fairly normal summer weather. Highs on the upper end of “normal” topping out in the upper 80s to near 90°. Lows in the mid 50s.
Summertime rain not associated with thunderstorms is very rare. The warm atmosphere, the stabilizing effect of the Pacific Ocean, and an extremely weak summertime jet stream in the northern Pacific all provide us with reliably dry summers. It’s true our summers have turned hotter and drier in recent years, but truth is, they have (for as long as we know) always been reliably warm and dry. I’m interested to see how this storm develops and how much rain we actually get out of it. To put into perspective how rare a rainy July day is around these parts, take a look at this graph below. It shows total rainfall here in Salem for the month of July going back to 1970.
Three things stand out to me:
1.) We had some unusually wet Julys in the 80s. Imagine the rough tomato crops those years. 😦
2.) Dry Julys are nothing new. If you go back even further in time, you would notice that Salem had four complete dry Julys during the decade of the 1950s.
3.) Rain in July has become less common over the past 25 years.
This won’t show on the graph, but 2019 was the last time we had more than a quarter inch of rain in one day during the month of July which again speaks to the rareness of this event. Of course it hasn’t happened yet, but odds are high we will pick up at least some rain next week.
What a soggy and wet weekend we just had. Salem has picked up nearly two inches of rain between Friday and Sunday, and actually Salem set a new rainfall record back on Saturday for the most rain recorded on that date with a full inch falling just on that day alone.
My previous forecast for Monday and Tuesday remain on track with Monday standing the best chance for thundershowers and big downpours, and Tuesday standing the best chance for some dry weather. We dry out and warm up for the remainder of the week. More on that at the end of this post.
April 2024
April 2024 was a drier month, but with almost perfectly average temperatures. Nothing really exciting happened. We had our usual brief downpours of heavy rain and in some instances – hail, but that is to be expected, and it was far less than we have seen in past Aprils. In the end we had just 60% of our average total precipitation for the month. For temperatures, we ended -0.1° cooler than average, so basically right on the dot. Salem did have a late season freeze on April 17th the official airport temperature reading recorded a low of 32°. Our warmest temp of the month was a high of 75 degrees which took place both on April 2nd and April 23rd.
Thunderstorm info and look ahead
Things to watch for in the coming months include thunderstorm threats, heatwaves, the annual end of our spring showers and storms, and the beginning of our extremely stable warm and dry summertime pattern.
I do have a fun thunderstorm chart for you all which is curtesy of Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon. It’s true we don’t see very many thunderstorms in the Willamette Valley, and when we do experience them it’s often times a quick rumble or two and nothing more. Despite that, we do have a thunderstorm season here, and this chart below illustrates those seasons (circled on here) by showing the percentage of years lighting was observed in Multnomah County for any given hour of the year per week. For example, 7% of the years analyzed had lighting in Multnomah County during the 9pm hour in the first week of February. Check it out and click for a larger view.
As you can see, there are two distinct thunderstorm seasons here – albeit not very impressive seasons when compared to say Arizona or Florida. Nonetheless, we are currently in our peak thunderstorm season, and will be through most of June.
A second thing which caught my eye is the slight uptick in lightning occurrences during the overnight hours in summer. Salem’s best shot at nighttime lightning goes from roughly July 1st through the first week of September and you can see that represented on the chart.
I’m definitely curious and a little excited (as always) to see how much – if any thunderstorm action we get over the rest of this spring and summer season. Right now we have a shot at some brief thundershower action Monday, and maybe Tuesday before drying out and warming up with no rain or thunderstorm threats afterwards for at least several days. I’ve upped our high temperatures for Friday and Saturday with daytime temps reaching 83 to 85°. Highs on Sunday should still be back into the low 80s. The dry weather should dominate most of next week as well, but if any rain threats pop up I should have adequate time to inform you all.
Have a great Monday, stay safe, and keep an eye out for any lightning you might be lucky enough to spot. 🙂
Well we made it through several really rainy days earlier this week, we briefly dried out, and now we are staring down another hefty rainstorm for this weekend. Details in a minute, but first, a quick glance at how we did in terms of total precip during our stretch of rainy weather.
Rainfall was persistent, but rarely was it real heavy, and certainly never for very long which allowed Salem to escape any big flooding issues. There was some flooding of parking lots, a few streets, and a couple parks around town, but nothing significant. In the end it honestly felt like regular rainy Oregon weather, but with a mild touch to it. This past Monday and Tuesday both saw highs in the low 60s here in Salem which is WAY above normal for this time of year!
Flooding was more severe out in the Coast Range and along the coast specifically areas near both Tillamook and Seaside.
A typical 7 day stretch this time of year would give us around 1.65″ of rain, so receiving over 5 inches of rain over the same time frame is definitely on the excessive side of things. However, for you “old timers” (this includes me haha), the major floods of February 1996 gave Salem over 8 inches of rain in only 4 days, so it puts our recent deluge into perspective a little.
Here are three pictures from the flooding this past week. One is of some minor street flooding here in Salem, another is of a flooded house near Garibaldi along the coast, and the other is of a landslide which occurred in Portland.
The forecast
Saturday: A cool and cloudy day with rain much of the day. Temps in the upper 30s to low 40s all day long with rain at times. Chilly and rainy – the best of both worlds… 😉
Sunday: Rainy. Expect a full inch plus of rainfall between Saturday and Sunday. Yes, the rain is returning in full force, and it will be on the heavier side at times.
Mon – Wed: Dry. Fog is likely in some areas, especially locations away from the Columbia River Gorge. If we don’t see fog, then expect beautiful sunny skies, and chilly nights. Highs in the upper 40s and lows around freezing.
Thu: Some rain overnight Wednesday will last into Thursday morning. Dry during the afternoon.
Fri: Dry. Highs in the upper 40s and lows around 30 to 32°.
The Cascades
The Cascades and our local ski resorts are having a rough go of it so far. It’s definitely early in the season still, but the warmer rainstorms we keep on seeing are making it tough to hang onto a good snowpack. Hoodoo went from no snow on the ground on November 29th, to 2 feet of snow on December 2nd, back down to an inch this past Wednesday, and now they are back up to having nearly 20 inches! Phew, what a ride, but wait, there’s more haha!! The rain coming in this weekend is associated with a very warm airmass which means more rain in the mountains. It will be interesting to see how much snow survives this incoming storm. I snagged a cam shot showing how it looked late this afternoon.
That’s all for today. Once we get through the storm this weekend I really don’t see anything overly interesting for awhile. Stay safe, and enjoy the weekend! 🙂
Hahaha! Welcome to the longest post I’ve probably ever written! I cover a lot of content in this post, and it is organized in the following order: 1.) the forecast, 2.) my thoughts on this upcoming winter, 3.) a little lesson on inversions and why we have them in winter, and then lastly, 4.) a little reminder on how ensembles work. This post has been days in the making and it’s long. If you only want the forecast then read just the top portion only, but if you want something long to read, then keep on going!! Because of all the content I have in this post, I recommend you view it from the website itself to ensure the best experience specifically with the slider tools. Here’s a link to the website:https://bryanweatheralert.com/
The forecast
The weather has remained fairly calm and stable the past few days. Cold nights and mornings followed by decently mild afternoons, and this will continue for a few more days. The mornings will especially continue to be downright cold. Lows in the Salem area this Sunday morning ranged from 27 to 30 degrees depending on location. That would be cold even by December standards, so considering the fact that it’s not even November yet makes it all the more impressive.
The forecast is pretty cut and dry as we remain in this cool, but clear and sunny pattern through Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon and evening could be damp with showers moving in. Thursday marks a distinct switch to much rainier and stormier weather. In fact, Thursday is looking like a real soaker! This means you all need to get out and enjoy the dry and sunny weather while it is with us.
My winter outlook thoughts
Many experts gathered Saturday (the 28th) up at OMSI for an annual winter weather forecasting meeting. Presenters often review how well their forecasts turned out from the previous winter before taking a stab at the upcoming winter season. Interesting to say the least.
I don’t really forecast what a whole winter will bring as I think there are far too many variables; however, I get asked a lot and it is sort of fun guess. I look at a wide range of data including current trends, past years which had similar sea surface temperature anomalies, past years with similar upper level patterns, and other factors. Years with similarities are known as analog years. These analog years helps steer my best guess for an upcoming winter more than anything else. Way back in the beginning of August I gave a peak at what MIGHT lay ahead. I actually feel like that guess has held up quite well with a link to my forecast from August if you wish to review how I have faired so far. Today I figured I would just add to that guess refining it some since this is the time of year when all the “experts” give their best guesses haha.
For starters, it’s important to remember that we are in an El Nino pattern across the globe. This is based largely off of the sea surface temperatures west of equatorial South America, and yes, this does have an effect on the weather around the world including right here in Oregon. Based on the various factors I take into account, this is what I’m thinking for the months of November through March:
1.) Near average precip. NOAA and the NWS both will show and share maps on social media indicating we have a dry winter on the way, but I have to disagree. I really think we will end up right near average for precipitation when all is said and done. Many of these El Nino winters end up having one or maybe two months of very wet weather with the rest of the months being on the drier side of things. Add everything together and we end up near average. Again, just my best guess. Below is a fun map showing the climate divisions of the continental United States. This map takes precipitation data from previous years I manually plugged into it. The years I chose are all decent analog years – in my opinion.
Notice how the Willamette Valley in particular has no coloring. This indicates that most of these years ended up somewhere close to average when it come to rainfall/melted snow. This is why I’m leaning towards a fairly average year in the rainfall category.
2.) Warmer than normal temps. This guess is not due to any climate change affects. Afterall, we just had a colder than normal winter last winter which falls more in line with a typical La Nina winter. Unfortunately, we are not in La Nina, instead we have the wild “older” brother El Nino, and El Nino winters consistently end up on the warmer side of average. Warmer than average does not mean no snow or arctic blasts, nor does it mean a bad ski season which I will address in point number 3.
This next map shows how each climate division of the country faired in regards to temperature during these analog years. You may notice the Willamette Valley has no “warm coloring” and that is mainly due to the very cold temperatures from one of these analog years sort of throwing off the rest (1972). Fun fact, Salem’s coldest temperature ever recorded took place in December 1972 when it dropped to negative 12 degrees Fahrenheit! All the other years by and large ended up slightly warmer than average. I also consider other global patterns and conditions when I make these guesses, and I have a feeling this year will end up on the slightly warmer side. 1972 is just proof that exceptions do happen.
3.) Expect a decent ski year, but not top tier. El Nino can be notorious for a few things. The first being that unlike their counterpart “La Nina,” El Nino winters rarely have big snowpacks in lower elevation mountains like the Coast Range or foothill locations like Idanha or Detroit. Two, the snow is typically on the wetter side versus being more powdery, and this is due to the slightly warmer nature of the storms. It takes a colder airmass to produce real powdery snow, and while it does happen in El Nino winters, typically warmer storm systems are not far behind.
One other note is some of our very worst ski seasons have taken place during weak El Nino winters, but this is not a weak El Nino by any means. This El Nino will go down as a moderate to strong one which does change things, and this brings me to another point. I find it lazy that these national weather and forecasting services don’t take a few minutes to distinguish between the effects of weak and strong El Ninos. Use the slider tool to see the differences between the weak and strong El Nino winters.
There is a significant difference between weak and strong El Ninos, and so it is discouraging to see a broad brushed and effortless maps like this one below from NOAA shared all over the internet. Some of these people are getting paid 6 digit figures to make these forecasts, and this is the best they can do?? When you look at the actual data, like the data I just provided, there is nothing to support that Alaska, the west coast, the mid west, and the eastern seaboard all have higher probabilities of seeing a warmer than normal winter during the same winter.
Again, to help illustrate the differences between weak and strong El Nino winters, check out the differences in precipitation patterns during both weak and strong El Nino winters.
The Pacific Northwest stands a much better chance at seeing regular rainfall totals during the stronger El Nino events.
4.) Many of these El Nino winters had a lot of weather action right in the heart of winter – think December and January including arctic blasts and snow events. I feel we have an increased chance of seeing snow and cold during these two months whereas in other years it seems February has been the month for snow and ice.
Final thoughts
Expect very rainy and stormy periods (this includes elevated chances for significant windstorms also) to balance out the dry times this winter.When all is said and done, Salem should end up close to average for precip. Expect a relatively warmer than usual winter. Expect a decent ski season, but not a top tier season, and lastly, I expect we will see some sort of snow, ice and or arctic blast this winter, but as mentioned earlier, the chances are higher these wintry events will take place in December or January.
One big wildcard is February. There seems to be a clear trend for more snow and ice events in February than what we saw in the past. As we stand today, 5 of the past 7 winters have been La Ninas which tend to provide more optimal conditions for February snow, but one of the past 7 years 2018/2019) was an El Nino and it also gave Salem and the Willamette Valley a cold and snowy February, so what is going on? Is February becoming snowier, or was February 2019 an exception? Afterall, there have always been exceptions to the rules “insert 1972” lol. So yes, I’m curious to see what transpires this winter. These next two images are curtesy of Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon. He regularly does a nice job of explaining what is going on with the weather, and he does a fantastic job of putting together graphics which is why he has always been hands down my favorite go to TV weather person.
163 versus 142.2 inches of snow.
Make sure to use the slider tool to get the full experience haha! Two things stand out to me with one being the total amount of snow did go down by about 20 inches between these two time frames which is fairly significant. Two, look at the drastic change in snowfall for February! Big shift upward there, so again, I’m extremely curious to see what happens this winter. I guess a third thing I noticed is there has been less snow in November lately. November snow has always been rare, but 2011 and then going back to 2006 are the last two years we widespread valley snowfall in November, and neither of those years brought very much. One of these years one would expect to see a good early season November snow event….
Welcome to Inversion season!
Every fall it happens. The sun grows weaker and weaker, and the days grow shorter and shorter causing a phenomenon known as an “inversion.” Inversions take place due to several factors: 1.) Cold air is denser/heavier than warm air which causes it to sink to the surface. 2.) A weak sun angle cannot sufficiently warm the surface during this time of year (now through February). 3.) The days are also shorter which further limits how effective the sun is at warming us up. 4.) Consequently, shorter days equals longer nights of course, so we start out cooler and cooler as fall goes on.
The upper level air pattern which will be in place for Monday is almost identical to the pattern which brought us 80+ degree weather just a few weeks ago and which brought us 90 degree weather back in September, so it’s absolutely amazing to me how the length of the days and the angle of the sun can drastically alters the weather we experience in Salem. Here’s a nice little visual for all the visual learners out there. This just shows how much the angle of the sun drops from summer to winter. This is also why we can have days where the fog never burns off or goes away completely. The sun is just too weak to burn it off this time of year.
Ensembles
Want to keep reading? I’m really on a roll with this post, so why stop now? Haha! Every year or so I like to share charts like this one below to help illustrate how “ensembles” work, and how important of a role they play in forecasting the weather. Ensembles are a collection of all the different forecasts any given computer model has generated. For the most part, I rely more heavily on a European weather forecasting model than on any of the American models. Gasp! I love America, and you all know that about me; however, our weather models are just not to speed with the Europeans. I guess we are too busy with important issues like trying to decide which bathrooms people should use lol, but I digress…. Anyway, these computer models spit out a range of possible outcomes for the weather usually two or four times a day.
An ensemble chart like the one below shows 51 possible outcomes counting a “control” run. These 51 possible outcomes give forecasters a better idea of what will actually happen versus looking at an individual run. Unfortunately many apps and forecasters out there are base their forecasts off of individual runs rather than trends in the ensembles. This is why (especially in winter) your weather apps can swing wildly from rain to sun to showers to snow and back to sun again within a few days. Time goes from left to right on the chart below with each individual horizontal line representing one possible outcome. This specific chart shows 24 hour precipitation, but with some overlap between 12 hour periods, so focus on the general theme and not as much on the actual numbers.
From looking at this chart there are three things which really stand out: 1.) We will stay dry through Wednesday. 2.) The rain returns in full force by Thursday November 2nd. 3.) We stay in a wet pattern through at least the 13th with no sign of a big break in the rain. I’m sure we will see a couple dry days mixed in; however, we are clearly headed into a long stretch of rainy and stormy weather, so buckle up!
I hope this all was interesting for you! Yes, it was a LONG read, but I tried to pack it with a lot of “fun” information, and I felt like right before winter was an appropriate time to do it. I don’t know about you, but I think we are ready for winter now haha! 🙂
Take care, stay safe, enjoy the dry weather, be ready for a soaking on Thursday, and look for another update probably late in the week. 🙂
If you are here for the forecast, then I have it right here first. Basically we should have highs 90 to 95° each day through Monday the 7th before cooling back down closer to average with highs in the lower 80s next Tuesday and Wednesday. No sign of rain for now…
Up in the Cascades we do have a shot of seeing thunderstorms during the later PM hours each day Friday through Sunday. I will keep a close eye on this threat as it will be happening over the weekend. For now I’m thinking the storms stay close to the crest of the Cascades and the Cascade peaks, they should stay east of Detroit Lake, Green Peter, and the other major reservoirs. The valley and coast should stay nice and dry. That’s it for the forecast.
Okay, so it’s only the second day of August, and there is plenty of hot summer still to go; however, I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at our up coming fall and winter season. The waters off the western coast of South America near the equator have switched from cooler than normal to warmer than normal over the past 6 months. The warmer than normal waters give us what we call an El Nino pattern.
Believe it or not, the sea surface temperatures thousands of miles away really do have an effect on our weather, and I’ll go through what those impacts could look like. Just keep in mind anytime I talk about an upcoming winter season I’m providing more of an “educated guess” than an actual forecast. Basically, I look at previous years which had similar El Nino conditions, and I go from there.
So what do the odds favor for the coming fall and winter? Well, there are 5 things which really stand out to me as being more likely during this up coming El Nino winter.
1.) Higher chances for late summer/early fall rains. Do you remember last fall how we scorched during the month of September and even the first two weeks of October? I sure remember. I remember cooking in my classroom at school. The odds of something similar happening again on a similar scale this year are smaller. We could very likely still see late season heat, but odds favor that such heat would not last for weeks on end through the fall like it did last year.
2.)El Nino winters tend to give Salem near average precipitation, but in a more “boom or bust” type fashion. El Nino winters often times produce significant rainfall over short periods of time leading to some flooding. You may recall me saying in the past that La Nina winters are the ones which give us our largest floods, and that is still true. The most important difference between many of our El Nino floods and La Nina floods is the snowpack in the mountains. The mountain snowpack during a La Nina winter tends to be pretty healthy (above normal), so when heavy rains arrive, there is usually plenty of snow to melt which adds to the flooding. El Nino winters tend to have a smaller snowpack due to warmer than usual temperatures. This minimizes the flooding usually just enough to prevent major widespread flooding. Clear as mud right?? 😉 🙂 Bottom line: expect some significant rainstorms this fall and winter and some flooding issues, but hopefully any major flooding can be avoided.
3.) Warmer overall. I expect this winter to end up being on the mild side. A cold El Nino around these parts has happened before, but is very, very rare. Again, for comparison, last winter was colder than normal when all the months were accounted for. We could easily have a cold arctic blast this winter, but in the end, I imagine we would still end up milder than average.
4.) Most El Nino winters end up producing a close to normal snowpack in the mountains, but because these winters tend to be milder, the snowpack rarely exceeds average by any significant amount. The bad news is that due to the warmer rain events, the snowpack does not typically stay “in tact” throughout the entire winter as well as it does during a La Nina. I’ve seen a healthy snowpack disappear quickly during an El Nino winter, before slowly building back up weeks later. Plan on a decent ski season, but probably not top tier.
5.) Speaking of snow, snow in the Willamette Valley is a huge wildcard during El Nino. During a La Nina winter, snow in Salem is a basically a guarantee as just about every La Nina produces at least some measurable snowfall here in Salem. The same cannot be said about El Nino though. We are closer to 50/50 when it comes to snow during an El Nino winter, so we will see what happens.
Again, these are all just guesses and trends I see based off of what took place in previous El Nino winters of similar strength to the one we are expected to see. It’s always exciting to see what actually unfolds, and of course it’s even more fun when you’re tuned in to Salem’s best and most handsome forecaster. 😉
Thankfully it’s back to summer for now, so enjoy it while it lasts.
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