It’s super late in the year to be seeing 90s, and yet here we are. Salem set a record high temp today 27 degrees above normal at a “scorching” 92°. The stretch of heat we are having is historic, and it’s tragic too in that wildfires continue to burn across the state of Oregon. Here’s a temperature map from 4PM showing the extremely hot temps around the region. Keep in mind it’s October 15th…
The forecast for the coming week is for more sun, more warm temps, more smoke in the air at times, and of course, still no rain. The “coolest” day this coming week will be Monday with highs reaching about 70 which is still warmer than normal by several degrees. We warm back up into the 80s Wed and Thu.
Now if you read my previous post, then you probably remember how optimistic I was that a switch to wetter and cooler weather was coming, and indeed it is still on schedule to arrive right around the 22nd. It can’t come soon enough though as I feel many of us are tired of the warm smoky air. I will happily update you all later this coming week with more details regarding our big and overdue change in the weather, but in the meantime I suppose we should all try our best to enjoy this very warm weather.
I admit I’m stating the obvious when I tell you that our fall season so far has been both extremely warm and dry; however, the part which sticks out the most is the warmth. We have been in record setting territory, but does this mean we might have a warm and mild fall/winter season too, or is there any correlation at all? We’ll take a look in this post. If you’re hoping for a forecast I can tell you that basically it’s looking dry for at least the next 7 or 8 days, so nothing new or exciting, and sadly nothing to really help put out the fires which continue to burn across the PNW.
This past September ended up 3 degrees above normal with only .29″ of rain (just 20% of normal) making for an extremely dry month! In addition to that, September 2022 also recorded seventeen 80+ degree days making the past month feel like an extension of summer. Look at how warm the western half of the country was during September.
Much of the western U.S. was 3 to 5° for the month.
October has also started out extremely warm with 6 out of the first 10 days reaching the 80 degree mark vaulting Salem to 6 degrees above normal for the month! Here’s the temperature anomaly map for the month so far:
The entire state of Oregon and Washington are currently running 6 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for October.
What’s really bizarre though is we have seen years in the past with extremely warm and dry Septembers and even Octobers during La Nina conditions only to flip to stormy weather. Currently we are experiencing (for a third year in a row) La Nina conditions – something to keep in mind.
Let’s look at September 1974. It was a La Nina year and a mere .28″ of rainfall for the entire month which is almost identical to the amount we saw this September. September 1974 was also extremely warm with a whopping 21 days above 80 and 11 days at/above 90°!
So what happened in 1974 after such a warm and dry early fall? Well over 14 inches of rain fell in November and December alone coupled with tons of mountain snow. Let’s look at a few more examples.
Exactly one year later in 1975 (La Nina year), Salem recorded its driest September on record. Not a single drop of rain fell the entire month. It was also very warm with eighteen 80+ degree days. The second half of October through December brought over 16 inches of rain though, and even some pre Christmas snowfall.
How about one more example? September 1998 was very dry as well with only 0.68″ of precip and plenty of mild days to boot. The following November and December dumped 20 inches of rain here in Salem resulting in widespread flooding. Worth noting that this was also a La Nina winter…
Bottom line is a warm and dry first half of fall can easily switch to a very wet, cool, and stormy second half. To be honest, that’s exactly what I expect will happen this year within the next 2 weeks. Watch for updates as the rainy season draws near and enjoy the warm and dry weather while it lasts, because it won’t last for much longer. Winter and the rainy season is coming, it’s just taking it’s sweet sweet time to arrive, but remember this post and know that you’ve been warned. It is coming…. It won’t be long before everything is all soggy, puddles everywhere, the rivers flowing high, and we will start wishing for sun again.
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