Woo hoo! Snow has been widespread across the entire mid Willamette Valley! It’s clear now that we have either hit the upper end of my forecasted snow totals or surpassed them for this point in our winter storm with more on the way tonight through Friday morning.
At the moment we are currently in between the rounds of heavier precip, and the “heating of the day” has helped major roads clear up a bit, but conditions go down hill tonight as temperatures drop and as round #2 moves in, so don’t get stuck out there thinking all is well.
What’s ahead?
More snow tonight with freezing rain and sleet mixing in. This second wave of moisture still looks quite “juicy” lol with a solid half inch of melted down precip (or more) with round #2. I currently expect at least a little bit of freezing rain or sleet to mix in tonight before changing back over to all snow; however, models have already been trying to push the cold air out of here too quickly, and so for the moment I’m leaning towards more snow and not as much in the way of ice.
Either way, winds continue to breeze out of the north, and temperatures will be plenty cold enough that whatever falls from the clouds will be frozen or will freeze on contact (freezing rain). My best guess is an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow with some freezing rain. If this storm continues to overperform I could see us surpassing those totals too! There are always little twists and turns with our winter storms here…
Snow will come to an end Friday morning, but with the colder than expected temperatures and increased snowfall, we should plan on road conditions improving very SLOWLY through the day on Friday with side roads remaining in rough shape.
Refreezing Friday night with clearing skies will lead to more issues again on side roads and less traveled streets through early Saturday morning before finally thawing out the rest of the way.
One additional thing I want to mention is how the Salem Airport temperature sensor has been regularly reporting a bit warmer than surrounding stations. Even warmer than weather observation spots in downtown and east along Lancaster Drive. Mark Nelson posted this graphic from the other day showing just how off it’s been and that he has tracked this for a couple years now. He does excellent work for Fox 12 and I appreciate his attention to details and to locations outside the PDX metro if you ever need a good forecaster to watch on TV.
So if you’re curious why your weather sensor at home has you in the upper 20s, but your weather app says otherwise, well now you know! Even right now you can see it is way off compared to the rest of the city and local area sitting at 34° while the rest of us are in the upper 20s to around 30°.
Stay safe, and keep on enjoying the snowy and wintry weather!! 🙂
As promised, this week has been very winter like with lots of rain, chilly temperatures, and at times, gusty winds. Below is a county map of Oregon showing total rainfall over the past 7 days. Most of the Willamette Valley has picked up around 3 inches of rain since last Saturday!
The other big change over the past week has been the well advertised increase in mountain snow. Hoodoo had a 15 inch base early this afternoon with 4 to 8 inches of new snow expected this evening through Sunday morning.
Looking ahead
Tonight: Showers increasing through the evening. Lows tonight in the mid 40s.
Sunday: Mostly dry with some a little bit of sun, and only a slight chance of a shower. Highs into the upper 50s.
Monday: Rain returns as a quick moving cold front sweeps in from the northwest. PM sunbreaks and showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Tuesday (Election Day): Highs around 57° with a fair amount of sunbreaks, and a slight chance for a brief shower or two.
Wed – Fri: Lots of fog. This time of year can be incredibly foggy, especially after having so much rain. Expect widespread fog each of these three days. Lows will likely bottom out in the 35 to 38° range and highs 49 to near 50 degrees assuming we get some afternoon sunbreaks. Lows could dip to freezing for areas that receive a little more clearing at night.
Next weekend: Rain appears likely, but obviously subject to change being several days out.
No big storms on the horizon at this time, and nothing real out of the ordinary for early November. No signs of any big warm rainstorms to wash away our early snowpack either as temperatures remain a little cooler than normal in the coming days.
October 2024
October may have ended on a cooler note, but overall it was quite mild being 2.8 degrees warmer than normal. As far as precipitation goes, we finished the month above average with a total of 3.8″ to kick off our new water year. Average for October is 3.47″. Over 2 inches of that rain fell during the final week of the month.
Hahaha! Welcome to the longest post I’ve probably ever written! I cover a lot of content in this post, and it is organized in the following order: 1.) the forecast, 2.) my thoughts on this upcoming winter, 3.) a little lesson on inversions and why we have them in winter, and then lastly, 4.) a little reminder on how ensembles work. This post has been days in the making and it’s long. If you only want the forecast then read just the top portion only, but if you want something long to read, then keep on going!! Because of all the content I have in this post, I recommend you view it from the website itself to ensure the best experience specifically with the slider tools. Here’s a link to the website:https://bryanweatheralert.com/
The forecast
The weather has remained fairly calm and stable the past few days. Cold nights and mornings followed by decently mild afternoons, and this will continue for a few more days. The mornings will especially continue to be downright cold. Lows in the Salem area this Sunday morning ranged from 27 to 30 degrees depending on location. That would be cold even by December standards, so considering the fact that it’s not even November yet makes it all the more impressive.
The forecast is pretty cut and dry as we remain in this cool, but clear and sunny pattern through Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon and evening could be damp with showers moving in. Thursday marks a distinct switch to much rainier and stormier weather. In fact, Thursday is looking like a real soaker! This means you all need to get out and enjoy the dry and sunny weather while it is with us.
My winter outlook thoughts
Many experts gathered Saturday (the 28th) up at OMSI for an annual winter weather forecasting meeting. Presenters often review how well their forecasts turned out from the previous winter before taking a stab at the upcoming winter season. Interesting to say the least.
I don’t really forecast what a whole winter will bring as I think there are far too many variables; however, I get asked a lot and it is sort of fun guess. I look at a wide range of data including current trends, past years which had similar sea surface temperature anomalies, past years with similar upper level patterns, and other factors. Years with similarities are known as analog years. These analog years helps steer my best guess for an upcoming winter more than anything else. Way back in the beginning of August I gave a peak at what MIGHT lay ahead. I actually feel like that guess has held up quite well with a link to my forecast from August if you wish to review how I have faired so far. Today I figured I would just add to that guess refining it some since this is the time of year when all the “experts” give their best guesses haha.
For starters, it’s important to remember that we are in an El Nino pattern across the globe. This is based largely off of the sea surface temperatures west of equatorial South America, and yes, this does have an effect on the weather around the world including right here in Oregon. Based on the various factors I take into account, this is what I’m thinking for the months of November through March:
1.) Near average precip. NOAA and the NWS both will show and share maps on social media indicating we have a dry winter on the way, but I have to disagree. I really think we will end up right near average for precipitation when all is said and done. Many of these El Nino winters end up having one or maybe two months of very wet weather with the rest of the months being on the drier side of things. Add everything together and we end up near average. Again, just my best guess. Below is a fun map showing the climate divisions of the continental United States. This map takes precipitation data from previous years I manually plugged into it. The years I chose are all decent analog years – in my opinion.
Notice how the Willamette Valley in particular has no coloring. This indicates that most of these years ended up somewhere close to average when it come to rainfall/melted snow. This is why I’m leaning towards a fairly average year in the rainfall category.
2.) Warmer than normal temps. This guess is not due to any climate change affects. Afterall, we just had a colder than normal winter last winter which falls more in line with a typical La Nina winter. Unfortunately, we are not in La Nina, instead we have the wild “older” brother El Nino, and El Nino winters consistently end up on the warmer side of average. Warmer than average does not mean no snow or arctic blasts, nor does it mean a bad ski season which I will address in point number 3.
This next map shows how each climate division of the country faired in regards to temperature during these analog years. You may notice the Willamette Valley has no “warm coloring” and that is mainly due to the very cold temperatures from one of these analog years sort of throwing off the rest (1972). Fun fact, Salem’s coldest temperature ever recorded took place in December 1972 when it dropped to negative 12 degrees Fahrenheit! All the other years by and large ended up slightly warmer than average. I also consider other global patterns and conditions when I make these guesses, and I have a feeling this year will end up on the slightly warmer side. 1972 is just proof that exceptions do happen.
3.) Expect a decent ski year, but not top tier. El Nino can be notorious for a few things. The first being that unlike their counterpart “La Nina,” El Nino winters rarely have big snowpacks in lower elevation mountains like the Coast Range or foothill locations like Idanha or Detroit. Two, the snow is typically on the wetter side versus being more powdery, and this is due to the slightly warmer nature of the storms. It takes a colder airmass to produce real powdery snow, and while it does happen in El Nino winters, typically warmer storm systems are not far behind.
One other note is some of our very worst ski seasons have taken place during weak El Nino winters, but this is not a weak El Nino by any means. This El Nino will go down as a moderate to strong one which does change things, and this brings me to another point. I find it lazy that these national weather and forecasting services don’t take a few minutes to distinguish between the effects of weak and strong El Ninos. Use the slider tool to see the differences between the weak and strong El Nino winters.
There is a significant difference between weak and strong El Ninos, and so it is discouraging to see a broad brushed and effortless maps like this one below from NOAA shared all over the internet. Some of these people are getting paid 6 digit figures to make these forecasts, and this is the best they can do?? When you look at the actual data, like the data I just provided, there is nothing to support that Alaska, the west coast, the mid west, and the eastern seaboard all have higher probabilities of seeing a warmer than normal winter during the same winter.
Again, to help illustrate the differences between weak and strong El Nino winters, check out the differences in precipitation patterns during both weak and strong El Nino winters.
The Pacific Northwest stands a much better chance at seeing regular rainfall totals during the stronger El Nino events.
4.) Many of these El Nino winters had a lot of weather action right in the heart of winter – think December and January including arctic blasts and snow events. I feel we have an increased chance of seeing snow and cold during these two months whereas in other years it seems February has been the month for snow and ice.
Final thoughts
Expect very rainy and stormy periods (this includes elevated chances for significant windstorms also) to balance out the dry times this winter.When all is said and done, Salem should end up close to average for precip. Expect a relatively warmer than usual winter. Expect a decent ski season, but not a top tier season, and lastly, I expect we will see some sort of snow, ice and or arctic blast this winter, but as mentioned earlier, the chances are higher these wintry events will take place in December or January.
One big wildcard is February. There seems to be a clear trend for more snow and ice events in February than what we saw in the past. As we stand today, 5 of the past 7 winters have been La Ninas which tend to provide more optimal conditions for February snow, but one of the past 7 years 2018/2019) was an El Nino and it also gave Salem and the Willamette Valley a cold and snowy February, so what is going on? Is February becoming snowier, or was February 2019 an exception? Afterall, there have always been exceptions to the rules “insert 1972” lol. So yes, I’m curious to see what transpires this winter. These next two images are curtesy of Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon. He regularly does a nice job of explaining what is going on with the weather, and he does a fantastic job of putting together graphics which is why he has always been hands down my favorite go to TV weather person.
163 versus 142.2 inches of snow.
Make sure to use the slider tool to get the full experience haha! Two things stand out to me with one being the total amount of snow did go down by about 20 inches between these two time frames which is fairly significant. Two, look at the drastic change in snowfall for February! Big shift upward there, so again, I’m extremely curious to see what happens this winter. I guess a third thing I noticed is there has been less snow in November lately. November snow has always been rare, but 2011 and then going back to 2006 are the last two years we widespread valley snowfall in November, and neither of those years brought very much. One of these years one would expect to see a good early season November snow event….
Welcome to Inversion season!
Every fall it happens. The sun grows weaker and weaker, and the days grow shorter and shorter causing a phenomenon known as an “inversion.” Inversions take place due to several factors: 1.) Cold air is denser/heavier than warm air which causes it to sink to the surface. 2.) A weak sun angle cannot sufficiently warm the surface during this time of year (now through February). 3.) The days are also shorter which further limits how effective the sun is at warming us up. 4.) Consequently, shorter days equals longer nights of course, so we start out cooler and cooler as fall goes on.
The upper level air pattern which will be in place for Monday is almost identical to the pattern which brought us 80+ degree weather just a few weeks ago and which brought us 90 degree weather back in September, so it’s absolutely amazing to me how the length of the days and the angle of the sun can drastically alters the weather we experience in Salem. Here’s a nice little visual for all the visual learners out there. This just shows how much the angle of the sun drops from summer to winter. This is also why we can have days where the fog never burns off or goes away completely. The sun is just too weak to burn it off this time of year.
Ensembles
Want to keep reading? I’m really on a roll with this post, so why stop now? Haha! Every year or so I like to share charts like this one below to help illustrate how “ensembles” work, and how important of a role they play in forecasting the weather. Ensembles are a collection of all the different forecasts any given computer model has generated. For the most part, I rely more heavily on a European weather forecasting model than on any of the American models. Gasp! I love America, and you all know that about me; however, our weather models are just not to speed with the Europeans. I guess we are too busy with important issues like trying to decide which bathrooms people should use lol, but I digress…. Anyway, these computer models spit out a range of possible outcomes for the weather usually two or four times a day.
An ensemble chart like the one below shows 51 possible outcomes counting a “control” run. These 51 possible outcomes give forecasters a better idea of what will actually happen versus looking at an individual run. Unfortunately many apps and forecasters out there are base their forecasts off of individual runs rather than trends in the ensembles. This is why (especially in winter) your weather apps can swing wildly from rain to sun to showers to snow and back to sun again within a few days. Time goes from left to right on the chart below with each individual horizontal line representing one possible outcome. This specific chart shows 24 hour precipitation, but with some overlap between 12 hour periods, so focus on the general theme and not as much on the actual numbers.
From looking at this chart there are three things which really stand out: 1.) We will stay dry through Wednesday. 2.) The rain returns in full force by Thursday November 2nd. 3.) We stay in a wet pattern through at least the 13th with no sign of a big break in the rain. I’m sure we will see a couple dry days mixed in; however, we are clearly headed into a long stretch of rainy and stormy weather, so buckle up!
I hope this all was interesting for you! Yes, it was a LONG read, but I tried to pack it with a lot of “fun” information, and I felt like right before winter was an appropriate time to do it. I don’t know about you, but I think we are ready for winter now haha! 🙂
Take care, stay safe, enjoy the dry weather, be ready for a soaking on Thursday, and look for another update probably late in the week. 🙂
For a number of us, this past Thursday night provided some of the best nighttime thunderstorms we have seen in a few years with numerous lightning strikes. Here is a great lightning strike which was caught by Jessica Ward looking over Proposal Rock in Neskowin last Thursday night
This map shows lightning strikes (both negative and positive) from Thursday night and Friday morning. It’s very typical for some of us to experience nothing while others see the storm of the decade. Generally speaking, the west side of the Willamette Valley saw the most action. You should be able to click on the image for a better view. If you are curious about the differences between negative and positive strikes, then follow this link for more info: Different types of lightning
Moving ahead, the next seven days feature multiple shots at precipitation (actual rain) as a cool and wetter pattern takes shape over us. In fact, today is already feeling rather fall-like with the grey skies and cooler temps. Here’s the extended forecast.
Highlights
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers – especially late in the day.
Wednesday: Slight chance of a shower or two, but a mostly dry day. Drier than Tuesday. Highs close to 80°
Thursday: Showers and more widespread light rain. Will be the coolest day since June!
Friday: Warmer with more sunbreaks, but a chance for PM showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: A near repeat of Friday, but with a tad more sun and slightly warmer high temps.
Sunday: Lower confidence. Currently, it’s looking cooler with possibly another shot at some rain.
No signs of the heat returning, but we all know September can feature pretty warm temps, so we will see what happens. Certainly much different than last year when we saw our dry summer heat and wildfires drag on right into the middle of October!
Between moving into a new house, my brother’s wedding, and our crazy ice storm I realized I never published a recap of January. I had it written up all nice & neat and ready to go, but it never got published. So, I figured I might as well combine it with February for a special two for one deal hahaha!! If you’re looking for a forecast than hang tight. I’ll have a forecast out real soon as well. 🙂
January 2021
It may seem like distant memory, but the first 12 days of January were stormy, wet, and windy. Salem picked up 6.72″ during this time frame. The most significant storm arrived on the 12th bringing 1.93″ of rain, 45mph wind gusts to Salem, and localized flooding in both the Coast Range and along the coast itself as powerful waves crashed ashore. Flooding with this storm was particularly bad on the Mary’s River down near Corvallis where heavy rain stalled out for a longer period of time causing a sharp rise in that river.
This chart from January 15th shows the sharp spike on the Marys River near Philomath (west of Corvallis). This area was hit especially hard by flooding.
The second highlight was the much warmer than normal temperatures which dominated the majority of the month. Salem had 18 days with highs in the 50s. Low temps reached or fell below freezing 9 days, but the coldest temp for the entire month was only 26°. Salem ended the month 2.48° above normal – a very mild January for sure! A brief cool spell near the end of the month offset some of the warm weather, but it also set the stage for the 3rd and final highlight of January 2021.
A surprise snowstorm hit Salem early in the afternoon on the 26th. If you live east or north of downtown then you might not call what took place a snowstorm, and for those parts of town it really wasn’t; however, for areas west and south of downtown what took place was about as legit of a snowstorm as we get around here. Heavy wet snow dumped during the afternoon hours of the 26th leaving behind 3 to 4 inches of snow in both south and west Salem. Snow quickly covered roadways making for treacherous driving conditions specifically in the hilly parts of Salem. Downtown had just shy of 2 inches while Keizer and areas east of Lancaster saw accumulations of an inch or so at most. Locations west of Salem and down towards Dallas & Corvallis picked up 3 to 5 inches of snow as well. It was a very localized event which favored the western Willamette Valley, but for some of these locations it was the biggest snowstorm since January 2017. The snow melted away quickly though as we returned to more mild January weather the very next day.
Snow accumulates in south Salem near Liberty Road.
Summary
January 2021 was quite mild ending 2.48° above normal, and wetter than normal with 8.5″ of precipitation in total giving us 143% of our average precip for January. In the snow department we had an unofficial snow total of 2.5″. Quick reminder that snow totals are no longer kept track of at the Salem Airport making it difficult to obtain official snowfall totals for Salem.
February 2021
Officially no snow was recorded in Salem this month. With that said, February brought us our coldest high temp of the season 0f 30° on the 12th. A whopping 21° colder than normal for that day! This was the same airmass which also brought copious amounts of freezing rain.
I’ve been making the case for awhile now that February has become our snowiest month of the winter. Sure there was no snow this February here in Salem, but the cold and freezing rain still helped to solidify this idea that February has become an increasingly cold and wintry month – much more so than in the past. Same story for Portland with the biggest difference being they actually saw snow (ten inches in fact) from the storm this past month. Looking at this graphic produced by Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon, I find it interesting how 3 of Portland’s snowiest Februaries ever recorded (records go back to 1938) have taken place during the past decade. If we were to expand this graphic a little more, February 2019 would be on there with 6.5″ of snow making that 4 of Portland’s snowiest Februaries occurring in the past ten years….
There definitely seems to be a trend for snowier and colder Februaries around here, and the same goes for March too. I have one more weather graphic from Fox 12 showing measurable March snowfall in Portland over the past 50 years. Again, seems like March has over performed in the snow department during this most recent decade.
It seems like winter is taking longer to get going in recent years with less snow in November and December, but once winter finally gets its act together it’s been slower to leave resulting in colder and snowier weather in February and March than compared to what we use to see. Curious to see if this is something long term or just a temporary trend….
Moving on lol, the only other highlight from around the region would be the big snow totals seen up in the Cascades during the second half of February. Hoodoo Ski Area closed out the month with around 103″ of snow at their base. No shortage of snow up there!
Summary
Other than our brief and intense blast of cold weather and freezing rain storm, the rest of the month was very tame. Salem had nearly 120% of our average February precipitation making for a slightly wetter than normal month. This is typical during a La Nina winter, so no big surprises there. As far as temperature goes, Salem had 7 days which reached or went below the freezing mark, and we ended the month 0.6° below normal. February 2021 goes into the books as slightly cooler and a bit wetter than normal.
We will see what March has in store for us, but I suspect above normal precipitation with lots of mountain snow as this would be typical of a La Nina winter and typical of what we have seen in recent years, but time will tell.
Here are the December 2020 states for Salem. We ended December slightly drier than normal with 6.45″ or 94% of average for the month. On the temperature side of things we ended up being quite a bit warmer than normal overall averaging 2.48° above normal.. Yes we had some very chilly days right around Christmas, but generally we stayed on the warmer end of things.
Warmest high temp was 60° December 21st
Coldest high temp was 33° December 24th
Warmest low temp was 48° December 19th
Coldest low temp was 24° December 29th
11 days with temps falling at or below freezing.
21 days with measurable precipitation.
The rainstorm on the 20th brought 1.92 inches of rain to Salem (our wettest day of the month) and was probably the biggest and really the only highlight of what ended up being a rather boring month as far as weather action goes. The mountains continued to pick up just enough snowfall through the course of the month to allow for plenty of skiing opportunities over Christmas break. A huge plus for that industry.
As far as snow goes once again we went another December without any snow here in Salem. Last spring I posted these statistics showing total snowfall per month over the past 10 years for here in Salem.
Feb: 19.25″
Jan: 6.9″
Mar: 6.05″
Dec: 5.25″
Nov: 0.35″
Interesting to see how February has been our snowiest month on average over the past 10 years and how January just barely beat out March for second place. This has not historically been the case. Hard to know if this is a new norm with more snow falling during the end of winter versus the middle, or if it’s nothing more than a temporary trend. Either way one would think that sooner or later we would score a December or January snowstorm….
Looking ahead, January has already started off on a very wet note and that appears to continue. I suspect the mountain snowpack will build quite nicely too during this time.
Happy new year, and here’s to a fun, healthy, and safe 2021, and if possible a nice January snowstorm 😉 🙂
I hope you all are enjoying the holiday season! Even with everything going on there is still much to be thankful for and much to enjoy. Just some quick words of encouragement from your local weatherman. 😉 Okay, moving on we have several dry or mostly dry days ahead with no sign of any big storms or arctic blasts, so with not much going on I figured it was a good time to recap November.
Highlights
November 2020 was not real exciting in terms of weather events. We had several days of wind & rain including a peak wind gust of 43mph on the 13th, but very few really wet storm systems. Perhaps the biggest highlight of the month was the good start to the mountain snow season up in the Cascades. It’s been several years since we have seen an early start like this. As of Monday, Hoodoo had 34 inches of snow which is well above normal for the end of November!! The final thing worth noting from the month would be the higher than normal amount of dry days (both foggy and sunny) which helped to keep our precipitation for the month slightly below normal.
Temperature
Warmest high temp was 68° November 4th
Coldest high temp was 39° November 27th
Warmest low temp was 58° November 4th
Coldest low temp was 24° November 9th
8 days with lows at or below freezing.
It’s been awhile, but we finally had a cooler than normal month. November 2020 was 1.1° below normal.
Salem had 19 days with measurable precipitation with most of the action taking place mid month, but as mentioned, not very many wet storm systems at all. The wettest day of the month was the 13th with 1.21” of rain. We ended November with 5.89″ of precip which is 90% of our average for the month, so yet another drier than average month.
Looking ahead
December is typically our wettest month of the year and one of our coldest. We will see what happens, but early indications are hinting at a cooler than normal month. As far as snow goes, December has not exactly been a big snow producer around here as of late. In fact, over the past decade February has actually been our snowiest month on average. Curious to see if that stays the same this year or if we get some good snowfall during December or January instead. Anyway, check out this graph of December snowfall going back to 2004.
Really only 2 years with any decent snowfall on this chart. I’m sure a lot of you remember 2008 when it snowed and snowed and snowed leading up to Christmas. More recently in 2016 we had a nice December snowstorm, but overall December snowfall has not been all that common lately. With that said, our chances seem to increase slightly during a La Nina. Take it for what its’ worth, but I’m thinking we see some snow this December. Just my gut feeling… 😉
Bryan Weather Alerts 