It’s early Thursday evening and again we have a chance of seeing some showers around and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder this time. The shower chances will last through the night.
Friday is looking mostly cloudy with a few afternoon sunbreaks highs in the low 70s.
High confidence that the weekend will be mostly sunny, warm with highs well into the 80s, and dry.
Would you look at that!! The very small chance for showers that I mentioned in my June 30th post came to be. It appears that this is not the super nice and sunny 4th of July many other forecasters were calling for after all. Looks like my cloudier and cooler forecast was not so far off after all… 😉 I just regret that I couldn’t get an update to you all sooner.
Expect on and off (light) showers through the evening. Good news: tonight after about 6 or 7pm it should dry out and stay dry for the remainder of the evening. Another shower or two is very possible both Thursday & Friday. With that said, both those days should feature more sunbreaks than what we have seen today.
After Friday I don’t see any more chances for rain or showers for a while as we move into a warmer pattern again, but I’ll take a closer look tomorrow when I provide a fresh extended outlook for you all.
After my miss with the snow this past winter it feels really good to just about nail a forecast several days in advance 🙂 Plus I went against the forecasts of the “professionals, so I feel even happier to have beat them out this time. Okay, enough bragging 😉 Enjoy the rest of your 4th and be safe!!!
Here’s a fresh updated forecast that takes us through the 4th of July and into next weekend. I have some important details below regarding the latest forecast so read carefully 😉
I highlighted in yellow 3 days on the forecast graphic to indicate that those days have higher than usual uncertainty regarding the forecast. I’m seeing lots of real sunny forecasts for the 4th of July and the days following it; however, I’m thinking it’s going to be much cloudier and cooler than what is being indicated by other forecasts. More thoughts and details below.
Saturday & Sunday: Dry and mild.
Monday: Cooler, lots of clouds, but still dry.
Tuesday: A nice dry & mild day.
Wednesday: Lots of clouds around and possibly much cooler than what other forecasts are indicating, but still dry.
Thursday – Saturday: Chance that we see a lot more clouds both of these days than is being forecast.
Final thoughts: Keep a close eye on the forecast as there is a chance the Wednesday – Saturday time frame of next week could improve or get worse. I hate to say it, but there’s even a small chance for a shower or two during that time frame. Currently that chance is too small to put it on my fancy weather graphic, but needs to be watched in case those chances increase.
Bottom line: It should stay dry for your 4th of July, but it’s very likely that it will be much cooler than what other forecasts are calling for which is why yours truly is watching things very closely for you and will provide more updates as the holiday draws near.
AND…. Just to demonstrate how different my forecast is from the other guys I have these posted here. I guess we will see who is right and who is well, not so right… May the best forecaster win. Here is the Fox 12 forecast:
Here’s Koin News 6:
Last and perhaps least in my mind 😉 the Weather Channel’s forecast for Salem:
No time for one of my super elaborate forecast graphics today, but I can still deliver you a very accurate outlook for the weekend and the week ahead.
Saturday & Sunday: Dry and sunny/partly cloudy.
Monday: Cloudy, SMALL chance for a few rain drops, but nothing life changing.
Tuesday – Thursday: Mild & dry.
Next Friday – Sunday: Mostly cloudy Friday, chance for some showers Saturday & Sunday.
There you have it. Have a fantastic weekend!!!
As promised, here’s your updated outlook for potential thunderstorms along with the forecast for the rest of the week.
Confident: Strong thunderstorms and heavy showers will develop during the day Wednesday through the evening somewhere north of Eugene all the way up through the Portland area.
Not so sure: Where these storms go no one can know for sure.
My best guess: The Portland area and points north face the best chance for storms tomorrow. Salem & Corvallis could see storms, but is currently looking less likely for everyone south of about Wilsonville. The only exception would be the eastern Willamette Valley such as Silverton & Canby. I believe that in general the closer you are to the Cascades the better shot you have at seeing a thunderstorm.
Final thought: Storms could start as early as just after lunch time, so keep a close eye to the sky while you are out and about tomorrow 😉
Tuesday is going to be hot & dry, Wednesday morning will get off to a very warm start, but after that the forecast gets tricky again. We have another shot of seeing thunderstorms this Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. I’ll have a fresh update Tuesday evening with the latest on that possibility, so stay tuned.
Our week ahead
It’s a hot Father’s Day out there and I hope you all are finding good ways to stay cool. Just a quick update: We have a chance for an evening shower or thunderstorm, so keep an eye to the northern sky 🙂
Enjoy the rest of the day!!
Bryan Weather Alerts 