Author: bryanweather

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. The January 2021 edition

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Weather Year 2020/2021Leave a comment

I put together a nice little recap of our snowstorm and figured I might as well kick it off with a positive. THE GOOD. I believe I did a good job of emphasizing how the best chances for snow were going to be locations on the western side of the Willamette Valley, and that part held true. The highest snow totals were found in locations further west towards the Coast Range including Corvallis, Dallas, Amity, west Salem and Newberg. All of these locations scored really well. THE BAD. IT snowed in all of Salem, and in some spots it was a lot. The heaviest snow totals were west and south of town with lighter totals as one headed further east. In fact, there was generally very little snow at all east of Cordon Road. This picture came in from a loyal viewer, follower, and friend near Pratum just a few miles east of Salem. As you can see, not much snow there at all.

This second pic was taken around 2:30PM in West Salem. Definitely snowier here.

Of course, south Salem almost always scores big when it comes to snow, and this was no exception. 3 to 4 inches in the higher hills down south and that is where this third picture was taken.

Next take a look at the temps from around the region at 3PM Tuesday. Eugene was at 35°, Portland was at 39°, and even the gorge was fairly mild. Often times we get cold air through the gorge when we have valley snow, but this time that was not the case. The Dalles had a “balmy” temp of 41°. Notice Salem sticking out big time sitting at 32°. The whole event was bizarre when you look at how “mild” the rest of the region was.

In Salem we had a high of 40° at the airport right around 1PM, and then the snow moved in… By 2:05PM we were down to 32°. An 8 degree drop in one hour!! So where did the cold air come from? Well quite literally it came from above. Haha for real though, the heavy precip dragged cold air from higher up in the atmosphere down to the surface which is why as soon as the steady/heavy precip ended we switched back to a light rain that night. The second factor that led to snow was a process called evaporational cooling. When precipitation falls through a dry airmass like the one we started with Tuesday morning, it takes the heat out of the air causing the temperatures to drop. I just wasn’t expecting an 8 degree drop in one hour from those two factors. As someone who has watched and forecasted the weather around here for a while, the whole thing was a huge shock.

If I could go back in time and redo Tuesday’s forecast I honestly would not change much. Looking at my previous forecasts I clearly stated it was going to be a close call for snow, and I had been watching the possibility of snow on Tuesday for several days in advance. Instead of removing the chance for snow all together like I did, I should have left it in there, emphasized how the chance was slim, and then laid out exactly what had to happen in order for snow to stick in Salem. But oh well, I still enjoyed the snow a great deal even if it was a surprise, and I hope you all did too! It was a lot of fun seeing it come down, and I was thankful I had the ability to get out and enjoy it while it lasted!

The other thing I noticed was I had a few errors in my posts over the past few days. Sorry about that. I even forgot to attach an image of the forecasted radar that I wanted to share with you in one of the posts. Oops!!!! I’ve definitely been busy and sidetracked with some good, but big changes at work, looking for and getting ready to move into a new place here in Salem, and well I’m still out an editor. The biggest problem with finding an editor is the pay is crummy haha lol 😉 🙂

Anyway, have a great rest of your day! I’ll have a forecast out later tonight or tomorrow, and I can tell you with confidence that our chances for snow are not over…. 🙂 February is looking chilly!!

More snow than I thought

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

Aww yes, good times….. Winter is here apparently. I’m a grown man, and I know when I’m wrong. I’m clearly wrong. The snow is falling hard out there and even though the temps are all above freezing, the snow is falling faster than it’s melting and now roads in in parts of Salem, specifically west Salem are turning white! These pics below are from west Salem (elevation around 230′).

The snow SHOULD still SLOWLY melt away tonight. Look for another update tonight, but yes. We are getting snow; although it’s still heavily favoring the western side of the valley, that part of my forecast is still holding true.

I expect poor driving conditions for the remainder of the day now for areas receiving snow, and watch for ice tonight!

Be safe and drive carefully!!

Snow update

On By bryanweatherIn WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

So far things are rolling out according to plan. Lots of snow falling and sticking down to low elevations on the west side of the Willamette Valley and in the Coast Range. Check out these road cams! Lots of snow already only several miles west of Salem.

The west side of the valley will continue to be the epicenter of the snowfall today. Salem itself and most of the I-5 corridor could see snow in the air, but no accumulations as stated in my last forecast.

Tonight will be chilly with a few showers (no snow), and same deal for both Wednesday and Thursday. It will be cool & damp with rain in the valley and snow in the Cascades and the Coast Range.

The No snow Monday night update :(

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A real quick update tonight.

As mentioned in my previous forecast, temps really need to drop around 30° or colder tonight if we want it to snow tomorrow and that’s probably not going to happen. In this particular setup the west side of the Willamette Valley does better than the east side. There are a few reasons for that, but basically cool air blowing out of the gorge sorta pools up against the Coast Range allowing those communities to be colder than the rest of the valley. Yes, that is a real thing 🙂 😉

Take a look at this snow map showing snow in the Coast Range and for the locations and cities on the western edge of the valley. Salem is the big gold colored dot. It shows us getting some snow, but I’m not buying it at all. This same weather model has temperatures around 36 degrees during this same exact time which is why I’m not buying into snow here in Salem. Communities like Dallas, Amity, Newberg, and up towards Forest Grove and Banks could all score some snowfall with this storm. Precip should move in between 11AM and 2PM.

Here’s a forecasted radar image for tomorrow at around ***AM It clearly shows……

Bottom line is we will not see accumulating snow here in Salem tomorrow. Sorry, but we simply don’t have cold enough air in place. We will likely see snow in the air, maybe even a lot snow flying through the air, but it won’t be sticking. Perhaps if we are lucky, some brief accumulations of slush in spots, but nothing more than that.

If we wake up in the morning and temps are somehow in the 20s or even around 30, then I will be making drastic changes, but for now my thoughts are the same: no snow and no snow day here in Salem or Keizer tomorrow.

Progressing nicely.

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Well, no major surprises yesterday. As forecasted, a very cold rain fell through most of the Sunday with snow mixing in above 500 – 1000 feet with plenty of snow falling in both the Cascades and the Coast Range. The airmass outside this morning is chilly. Check out area temps as of 8AM.

There are pretty clear signals that we will continue to stay under the influence of cool airmasses for at least the next 7 days. I see several more chances for snow coming up this week as well; although, at this time none of them are looking real solid. Here’s my latest thoughts.

The rest of today/tonight: We could see a brief snow shower, but do not expect accumulation. We have a better chance of seeing ice pellets or even hail accumulate today than we do with snow, and even that chance is minimal.

Tuesday: It really comes down to how cold we get tonight. If we can get down to 30° or colder, then I believe we have a decent shot at snow. The problem is we have no real source of cold air to draw from, and we don’t have arctic air in place either like we have had for past snowstorms. The precipitation is arriving during the daytime on Tuesday which is why it’s crucial (if you want snow) that we start the day off cold. I’m still leaning towards no accumulating snow except maybe briefly in the highest hills around town (west and south Salem). Could be a situation where we see lots of snow falling through the air, but not sticking here in town. I’ll have an update tonight and possibly again tomorrow morning as we get closer.

Wed & Thu: Low snow levels continue. Not expecting much (if anything) during this time either, but will keep an eye on things in case changes pop up.

Fri: Will likely end up being a similar to what we are seeing today, but with maybe a little more precip, and slightly cooler temps. Those two changes equal a better shot at seeing some light dustings of snow around town.

Sun: Another cold system comes in bringing low snow levels again… This is a long ways off, so not too concerned about it yet, but you get the idea – low snow levels are here to stay for awhile which means lots of updates and things to keep a close watch on.

Finally, it should go without saying, but both the Coast Range and the Cascades will be getting lots and lots of snow in this cool & damp pattern. Keep this in mind when traveling as almost every highway in the state outside of the Willamette Valley will be prone to snowfall most of this coming week.

Take care and happy Monday!!

Way above average and the chance for snow

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

This title refers to both precipitation and temperature. We have had some very mild (mild by January standards) high temps. Two thirds of the way through the month and we are 4.4° above normal!!! Currently we are in one of our top 10 warmest Januarys on record. Yikes!! On the precip side of things it’s been a dry several of days; however, the first 12 days were unusually wet. Salem has had 6.88″ so far which puts us at 157% of normal for this point in the month.

Change is in the air

If you were up and outside this morning, then you likely noticed changes in our airmass have already begun to taken place. Check out the chilly morning temps around the region as of 7AM.

We are headed for a much cooler end to January. In fact this past week has already been a little bit cooler; however, even chillier air will work it’s way in over the next few days. Details below:

Highlights

1.) Sunday. Hmmm, I’ve seen and heard lots of rumors about snow this day, but meh, I’m not all that impressed. Unless something changes, I’m going with a very cold rain with snow mixing in at times. It’s possible that it falls as all snow early tomorrow morning for a little while, but it’s going to be extremely difficult for it to accumulate on the valley floor as temperatures are going to likely stay a few degrees above freezing. There’s a better shot at seeing a brief coating of snow 500 to 1000 feet – maybe up to an inch. A few inches of snow are possible above 1000′.

2.) Sunday night/Monday could possibly give a few of us a light dusting of snow if we’re lucky as Monday will be a colder version of our typical sunbreak and shower type of day. Still no chance of any widespread or major accumulation.

3.) Watching Tuesday and Wednesday very closely as a storm will be moving in from a more favorable direction. Favorable at least if you are rooting for valley snow. 😉 We will have cool air already in place and the storm moving in has a bit of cool air with it as well. Of course we need just about everything to line up just right for snow around here, so don’t get too excited yet. At this time, Tuesday is looking like it could be our best shot at sticking snow this entire winter…

4.) The rest of next week we stay in a very low snow level pattern with lots of snow in the Coast Range, the Cascades, and the foothills around the valley. A very chilly and wet pattern for sure. Great for building the snowpack!

I’ll be updating much more frequently this coming week, so keep an eye out for those and keep an eye out for some snowflakes. 🙂

Take care and stay warm!

Wet

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Good and happy Monday morning!!!! 11 days into the month and January is running well above normal in the precip department. We have had several wet storm systems and we have a couple more coming up this week. Take a look at the next 7 days

The heaviest rain will fall during the nighttime hours tonight through tomorrow morning and again the same story Tuesday night. Winds will also be quite gusty Tuesday and Wednesday with gusts 35 to 45mph (maybe a gust to 50 here and there Tuesday night). I suspect 2 – 3 inches fall between now and Wednesday evening here in the valley. This will be a warm rain event, so no snow in the mountains unfortunately.

The only other weather event happening over the next 8 days will be some light rain falling Friday; otherwise, the rest of the next several days should be basically dry and quiet through at least next Monday or Tuesday.

The Coast

The coast should see winds up to 65mph Tuesday and Wednesday along with 3 to 4 inches of rain, and waves topping out 30 to 40 feet! It’s going to be an extremely stormy couple of days at the good ol’ Oregon coast.

There you have it! Watch for localized flooding over the next few days with this heavy rain, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a few people lost power with the wind Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Looking further ahead, it appears as though the second half of January might turn a bit more exciting and maybe a bit cooler too ( a nice little tease hehe), but for now the only highlight worth mentioning are these couple of very wet & windy storms. Take care!!