Author: bryanweather

Wintry weather is still coming

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

I’m using the words “wintry” because currently it’s looking likely that we end up with regular rain, freezing rain, and maybe sleet, but not necessarily so much in the way of snow here in Salem. So much to cover and so little time lol, so let’s dive right in!

1.) A chilly, but very light east wind is already beginning near the Columbia River Gorge, and by Thursday afternoon it should be just blasting through the gorge transporting very cold air into our region. Right now the cold air is still making it’s way south and west towards us. Here are regional temps as of 9PM:

As you can see we have a long ways to cool before we will be cold enough for freezing rain or snow. This event will largely be gorge driven as that is where the coldest air will be coming from. The Portland metro area is always the more favored spot for seeing lots of snow in this setup, and to a lesser extent the west side of the Willamette Valley is also favored some as cold air blowing west through the gorge sort of pools up against the Coast Range.

2.) Light rain at times arrives Thursday morning. It will be a cold rain, but I expect Salem to stay above freezing during the daytime hours. Portland will likely freeze over around sunset give or take a few hours, so if your plans take you up there keep this in mind. Salem may not freeze up until some time between 9PM and 3AM early Friday morning.

3.) The bad news is I’m not sure we will get very much snow. Salem will likely see mostly rain, freezing rain and maybe some snow mixing in occasionally. Snow chances increase the further west and north you live. In case you’re not sure how or what causes freezing rain check this graphic out below.

Basically the cold air Thursday night through Saturday won’t be deep enough for snow here in Salem as of right now.

5.) Storm number two comes in Friday afternoon through Saturday. This is the storm that should bring us the majority of our freezing rain and if things work out just right maybe some snow too.

FOR now, the most likely scenario I’m going with for now is we get plain old rain Thursday, and freezing rain Friday & Saturday with maybe half an inch up to 4 inches of snow and sleet mixed in. Could be a day were we switch back and forth between snow and freezing rain – what a mess!

Far less likely scenario is we see a lot of snow Friday & Saturday like 6+ inches. If the cold air overachieves and is deeper than expect then this scenario could happen which is why I’m mentioning it. Currently this is not expected to be the case.

Even less likely, but still technically possible is we end up with the coldest rain you’ve ever seen. This seems extremely unlikely based off of the trends I’ve seen, but if for some reason the cold air stalls just to our north we could be looking at a ton of 33 degree rain. Woo hoo!

Locations north of roughly Wilsonville will see significant snowfall of 5 to 12+ inches by Sunday morning. Locations between Wilsonville to roughly Salem will be in the messy and difficult to forecast rain, freezing rain and snow mix zone. Salem down to Albany should receive at least some accumulation of freezing rain Friday and Saturday, and again, very slight chance, but the chance exist that we see snowfall here if things work out just right (SLIM CHANCE THOUGH). With freezing rain likely the possibility exists for power outages, damage to plants, and lots of tree limbs down.

Phew!! I’m exhausted! Okay, time for a relaxing evening and I’ll give you all a nice update tomorrow morning or early afternoon!!

Take care!!!

Late night update

On By bryanweatherIn WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Wow so much going on with the weather. I am still working on a more comprehensive update for later Wednesday afternoon, but every time I check the forecast there’s a new twist.

Bottom line is Salem northward is still on track for some very wintry weather Thursday evening through Sunday.

Yeah, that’s all I have for you, but I didn’t want you to think I forgot to update you all. Be ready for lots of freezing rain and some snow – more snow the closer to Portland you get. Portland could be looking at a historic snow event.

Take care!!

Snow and ice update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A super quick update with no fancy pictures, charts, or maps. Just the basics. I will have a full update Tuesday afternoon/evening for you.

Highlights

1.) Tue & Wed will be chilly, especially in the mornings, but should stay mainly dry. Good days to go to work, travel around, and run errands.

2.) Thursday should be okay for travel too. I expect rain during the day with temps dropping as the day goes on.

3.) Thursday night into Friday morning we transition to either freezing rain, snow, or a wintry mix of both.

4.) There is a very good chance for wintry weather and significant impacts to travel in the Mid Willamette Valley from the moment we switch to frozen precip Thursday night/Friday morning all the way through Sunday, and perhaps even into early next week. It’s looking more and more likely that this will be a multiday event with several rounds of snow and or ice. Make sure you have all your errands done by Thursday afternoon just to be safe, and for now plan on roads turning bad possibly as early as Thursday night and lasting until Sunday, again maybe even longer.

I should have more details for you tomorrow. It’s going to be an exciting week around here!

Happy Monday!

Monday morning special

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

Our chances for snow have definitely increased since the last time I posted, but we still have a ways to go before I get too excited about us seeing a lot of snow. In my mind, these maps do a great job of illustrating why it’s so difficult to predict snow around here, specifically when it’s still several days out. Below is a slideshow of the 3 major weather models and their latest predictions for Thursday and Friday.

The first model shows Salem getting what would likely be mostly rain with a little bit of freezing rain possible, and maybe some snow mixed in if we are lucky. Overall though, this outcome would bring mainly rain to our area. Yeah, I know that’s what was said a few weeks ago when we saw that surprise snowstorm, and I imagine if this scenario played out there would still be a very slim chance of it being mostly snow, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The second model shows Salem receiving a good ol’ fashioned snowstorm with possibly several inches! The third and final model shows rain to freezing rain to eventually all snow. It also showed Salem getting snow next Saturday, Sunday, and the following week! A very snowy run indeed!

Like humans, none of these models are perfect and they each have their strong suits and their uh well not so strong suits. Knowing those and factoring those in is tough in a situation like this.

I know what you’re thinking, “make a dang forecast already! Haha. Here’s what I’m willing to say:

1.) This week will be the coldest week we have seen in at least 2 years. Lots of 20s and 30s at night and even some daytime highs not making it out of the 30s – maybe even colder if things work out just right, or wrong depending on your point of view. 😉

2.) Snow in Salem is fairly likely. Too much still up in the air to know if this will be a once in a decade type series of snowstorms (notice the plural there as some of the possible outcomes being predicted are showing several storms), will it be a run of the mill snowstorm, or will it be a quick hitter like what we saw a few weeks ago where it basically started melting as soon as the snow stopped falling. Or, there’s still a slim, and getting slimmer chance that we just see rain, but I’m hoping we can remove that possibility altogether real soon depending on what the new forecasts that come out later today look like. Bottom line is odds are high we see at least one more snow event of some sort whether it’s big or small and whether we see one or several is still unknown.

3.) Timing for this snow would be Thursday at the soonest, but more likely Friday or even Saturday. Many of the outcomes I’ve looked at have snow Friday, and again Saturday night or Sunday, and a surprising amount have even shown additional snow in the week to follow. I’m really hoping to have better idea tomorrow at least with the Thursday/Friday storm system.

4.) Monday through Wednesday will be fairly chilly, but no threat of snow on these days.

Look for updates all week long as there will be lots of twists and turns as we navigate what could shape up to be a very interesting week.

Take care!

Computer models, and much colder weather ahead!

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond1 Comment

I have to tell you there has been a whole lot of confusion on the weather models over the past week. By the way, when I say weather or computer models I’m not talking about fancy dressed up computers walking down a catwalk haha. I’m talking about a set of computers that forecast or model out potential weather outcomes two to four times a day (depending on the model). Getting back on track, I have noticed a shift in the models over the past couple of days showing some much colder, possibly very cold arctic air coming right down into Oregon next week. In my previous two updates you may recall me using an awful lot of yellow highlighting on the extended forecast indicating a high amount of uncertainty. Over the past week or so the forecasts have been going back and fourth between really cold weather and more mild/spring like weather. As of this afternoon there seems to be fairly solid agreement that a much colder airmass is headed for Oregon.

It’s too soon for very many details which is why I still have yellow highlighting for the last two days. The main message is much colder weather is on the way, and with this cold air will come an increased chance for valley snow. I sense many more updates in the coming week or two…. 😉

Here’s a few details and highlights for this coming week

1.) Saturday through Monday will feature a whole lot of clouds, but not a lot of precip. Basically a few showers each day with a couple peaks of sunshine here and there. We will also be getting progressively cooler each day with Saturday’s highs in the upper 40s. Sunday’s high temps will be in the mid 40s, and by Monday highs will drop down to the low to mid 40s.

2.) Tuesday through next weekend will no doubt be cold with lows possibly getting as cold as the upper teens. Brrrr!!! Regarding the chance for snow, there is still a lot up in the air right now. At this time I’m sticking with a mostly dry forecast, but don’t be surprised if a lot more snowflakes start showing up in the forecast. I’m watching Thursday through next weekend in particular as we could see a “classic” snowstorm setup with cold air in place and a storm system moving in to our south. In the past it is this setup which has typically produced our biggest snowstorms. Again, all possibilities for now, but it’s something I’m watching very closely!

THE CASCADES

Currently our snowpack is below normal for this time of year, and I don’t expect anything more than about 4 to 6 inches of new snow now through Monday which is not a whole lot. With that said, there’s still plenty of snow for skiing, snowboarding, snowshoeing, or whatever it is you do in the snow up there. 😉 As of this afternoon Hoodoo has a base of 67 inches which is still a decent amount of snow.

Of course, if a big storm does come in with the cold air late next week bringing snow to the valley, then I would imagine the mountains would also score some really big snow totals.

Happy Friday!!!!!

A look ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s February 2nd (Groundhog Day lol). I hope you’re doing well! I’ve got a fresh 7 day forecast for you and some quick thoughts on what’s coming up.

Highlights

1.) For the remainder of today we will see additional sunbreaks & showers with downpours, small hail, and the slight chance for a rumble of thunder.

2.) Wednesday morning could be interesting for a few of you as we have steady precipitation, a cooling airmass, and light winds. All three of those factors will work together to bring snow levels down quite low. Take a look at these two snowfall maps.

Hmmmmm and ugh lol… The last time these maps showed snow I ignored them lol and got burned. That’s not to say that these maps are not always right, but I’ll keep an eye on this still as it will be a close call for some of you. Basically these maps are both indicating snow falling down to very low levels briefly overnight tonight and into early Wednesday morning. Not a lot of snow at all, and not a very good chance, but after the “surprise” snow last Tuesday we should know that when things things work out just right snow is possible even if the chance is “not very good.”

I’m expecting just rain at this point; however, if it does snow, it will be brief and it should be no more than an inch or two for those of us in the valley. This setup favors locations south and east of Salem this go around. Eugene, Sweet Home, Lebanon are all have an increased chance of receiving snow.

3.) Either way, by mid morning we should have some nice sunbreaks and it will all be over with the exception of a few leftover rain showers during the afternoon hours.

4.) The rest of the week is pretty much what you see on the graphic. Nothing exciting for now, but extremely low confidence which is why I still have a lot of days colored in yellow. Every new forecast that has come out these past few days has spit something different out for this timeframe, and I mean everything from snow to rain to lots of sunshine lol which is making it extremely difficult to even guess what will happen this weekend and beyond. I’m hoping to have a better idea at some point tomorrow. For now, enjoy the sunbreaks and downpours.

Quick 7 day forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

I hope you all are having a great weekend! Here’s a fresh 7 day forecast along with a few details and highlights for you all. 🙂

Highlights

1.) A very wet storm system is forecasted to come in Sunday & Monday. I’m forecasting around 1.5″ of rain to fall across the Mid Willamette Valley. No flooding concerns, other than some very minor and localized ponding here and there.

2.) Tuesday & Wednesday: Cool and showery, a few downpours possible with lots of Cascade snow. 8 – 14 inches of new snow during this time frame depending on elevation.

3.) I’ve highlighted Thursday & Friday yellow on the 7 day graphic indicating lower than normal confidence. Right now I’m leaning towards those days being wet, but look for a new update in a day or two with hopefully more details.

There you have it. I’m watching the long range for the potential of some colder air moving down into our region, so look for another update here soon concerning that potential!

Have a great rest of your weekend!!!!