A quick write up for you during my lunchbreak. We have a slight chance of some thunder this afternoon plus I figured I would highlight the good and bad days for out door activities and projects as we have few rainy days on tap this week.
Highlights
The rest of today is going to be (for the most part) wet. Maybe a rumble of thunder or two later this afternoon along with a few downpours.
A few showers on Tuesday.
Wednesday’s shaping up to be nice and sunny with highs in the mid 70s.
Thursday: Rainy and breezy.A real spring soaker type of day.
Friday: A couple leftover showers; otherwise, mostly dry.
Memorial day weekend. Sat – Mon should be warm & dry. Highs in the 70s and 80s!
It’s nice to see some rain showing up as we desperately need it. Curious to see how much we end end up with… Regardless, it’s much needed. I’ll have a nice little update on where we stand in terms of our drought conditions later this week.
Have a great rest of your Monday! Take care of yourselves and stay safe!
It’s been a dry spring. Really dry. Back in March we saw 58% of our typical rainfall for the month, then April rolled around even drier with 45% of that month’s average, and now here we are well into May and it’s still dry. Salem has received less than 27% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month. I imagine by now most of us are in summer mode, but we definitely could use the rain. Below is the estimated total precip through next Monday, and unfortunately it’s not a lot, but it’s the most we have seen in quite some time. Every little bit helps, but we are going to need a lot more rain if we want to avoid severe drought conditions this summer. The good thing is I see heavier rainfall predicted for areas east of the Cascades which should help ease conditions over there.
Forecast
1.) Scattered showers today with plenty of sunbreaks. A few thunderstorms are possible as well during the afternoon and early evening hours. Be prepared for some heavy downpours in places. Some showers could contain small hail.
2.) A few less showers on Thursday with lots of sunbreaks. Best chance for showers will be after 3PM.
3.) Plan on both Friday and Saturday being totally dry, but keep an eye to the sky during the late afternoon and evening hours both days as there will still be the slightest chance for a late day shower. More so close to the Coast Range and Cascade Range.
4.) The chance for rain goes up on Sunday morning as another little storm system rolls through bringing a shot at maybe some widespread rainfall.
Overall though, western Oregon is not forecasted to pick up much rain with any of these storm systems. Certainly not enough to eliminate the drought concerns. Sure your neighborhood could see a downpour, but across the whole region we are not expecting much rainfall. The drought monitor shows much of the state is experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions.
Two things from his post I wish to emphasize. Number one is that a dry spring, like the one we’re experiencing now, does not guarantee a bad or destructive fire season. It certainly sets the stage for a bad year; however, a few well placed summer rainstorms can do wonders in preventing large wildfire outbreaks. As long as we get some rain from time to time during the summer months we should fair okay.
The second thing he mentioned is the role lightning plays into all of this. Lightning is a major starter of wildfires. If we stay warm and mostly dry this summer, but have very little in the way of thunderstorm activity, then we could still avoid a bad fire season – so long as humans don’t screw things up.
There you have it! I hope you all are enjoying the work week and making it through okay. Keep an eye to the sky the next few days as these showers could really dump a lot of rain in a short period of time….
First off I want to acknowledge that yes, it will be wet the next few days (I know that haha lol), but it won’t last long, and before you know it we’ll be returning right back to the warm and dry weather which has dominated our region for the past several weeks. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, check out the early summer like temps out there as of 4PM.
1.) Looking ahead tomorrow starts off dry with a couple of showers moving in during the mid to late afternoon hours. High temps should be around 67°. A few more showers on Friday, but I have to say overall the amount of rain we are expecting over the next few days is not very much at all. A few days ago there was some hope we would get a nice widespread soaking this week/weekend, but that’s just not going to be the case.
2.) Saturday and Sunday will both be basically dry with only a very slight chance for an isolated shower.
3.) The vast majority of next week is looking completely dry with a lot of high temps in the mid to upper 70s. What seems clear is our drier than normal spring is going to continue through next week. A couple days of scattered showers isn’t going to make up for the numerous dry days we have seen and will continue to see in the coming week. We could really use a good dose of rain, but sadly, that’s just the one thing I don’t see coming anytime soon…
Take care, stay safe and healthy, and have a great evening!!
It was definitely a very unusual April around here as we started off chilly and dry with some record low temps set around the region with lows dipping into the upper 20s on two separate occasions. Then we flipped the switch to warm and dry (very warm in fact). Whether it was cold or warm, the entire month was extremely dry for April. Some last minute rain Friday night bumped us up to 1.27″ (45% of normal) for the month. I almost hate to say this, but we could sure use some good soaking rainstorms over the next couple of months. Check out this graphic from Fox 12 Oregon for Portland where they saw even less rainfall setting a new all time record for driest April up there.
April ended up warmer than normal coming in at 2.27° above average for the month – pretty impressive considering we had lows in the upper 20s a couple days during the first half of the month. Those 80 degree days the second half sure did help to warm us up! Now let’s take a look at what the next 7 days hold for us.
Forecast
Highlights
Wednesday’s going to be the nice summer like day of the week with highs in the low 80s and lots of sunshine.
Thursday should start off dry, but showers and maybe even a few thundershowers move in during the afternoon and evening hours.
Frequent showers on Friday.
Saturday through next Monday will be partly cloudy with a couple of showers each day.
Interesting month so far. We started the month off with some very chilly – even record cold low temperatures, but wow how it has switched and turned around! We just had an incredible stretch of warm April weather with a new record high occurring this past Saturday with a high of 85° – a whopping 24 degrees above normal!!! This graphic from Mark Nelson with Fox 12 Oregon shows high temps in Portland and gives a good visual of our accent from very chilly weather earlier in the month to the record warmth we recently experienced.
The other record we are currently working on is a record dry April. Do you realize we have only picked up 5% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month? We are running way behind average! I have some good news though as rain looks to arrive this weekend. Okay, so rain on the weekend is not necessarily the best timing lol, but we need the rain; otherwise it’s going to be one heck of a summer.
The next 7 days and forecast highlights
Basically rain continues on and off through much of next week, so hopefully we make up some of that deficit.
The wettest days will be Saturday and Sunday. We do have a shot at seeing a few thundershowers on Sunday. Monday should be mostly dry with showers late in the day, and as it stands now, Tuesday looks to be a fairly dry.
There you have it. Have a great rest of your work week and stay safe!
The sunshine outside is making it feel like a distant memory, but it doesn’t change the fact that we have seen some really chilly nighttime lows (for April) lately. Sunday morning Salem tied its record low of 29°! This nice graphic from The National Weather Service in Portland shows how record lows were widespread this morning across western Oregon.
Despite having a few mild afternoons (our average high this time of year is 60°), Salem is actually running1.8 degrees below normal for the month thanks to these very cold morning lows. Change is coming this week as much warmer weather moves in.
The other interesting thing this month has been the unusually dry weather. Very odd for April to be this dry. Do you realize that we’ve seen a mere 9% of our typical rainfall for this point in the month?!? It’s going to be a long summer if we don’t get a few good soakings later this spring. This graph shows the total rainfall for each April since 1990. Red years were below average while blue ended up with wetter than normal rain totals.
This next map shows estimated total rainfall in inches through next Monday. Basically nothing more than maybe a tenth of an inch falling on next Monday which means our extremely dry April is going to continue.
Might as well make the most of the dry weather though. For all we know May could be gloomy and wet. This whole week and coming weekend will be dry – no question about it with the next chance of rain being (as stated above) next Monday at the soonest. The warmest days will be Thursday – Sunday with highs in the 70s and maybe even low 80s Saturday and Sunday!!
There you have it. Enjoy the sunny and warm weather!
Winter is done and it’s time to see how my outlook faired when compared to reality. This is the full meal deal with lots of info, so make sure you’re sitting comfortably for this one lol 🙂 . If you’re looking for a forecast just know that we have a few showers coming in tonight through Thursday morning and then one more cool and showery day on Saturday before we dry out and warm up setting the stage for a very mild and sunny stretch of weather next week.
WINTER 2020/2021 REVIEW
Back in October it appeared as though we had a moderate La Nina on tap and I laid out several things that were more likely to occur during a La Nina winter based off of similar winters in the past. In case you wish to travel back in time to see what my thoughts and predictions were you can check out my 2020/2021 winter outlook here: https://bryanweatheralert.com/2020/09/28/winter-2020-2021-outlook/
1.) Wetter than normal: (OKAY). Nov and Dec were both slightly below normal, Jan was fairly wet, Feb came in a little above normal, but March finished out well below average. When all was said and done, Salem ended up right around average in the precip category. I stated in my winter outlook that a dry winter was very unlikely, and that part held true. This winter was definitely not a dry one, but to call it a wetter than normal winter would be a little bit of a stretch.
2.) Above normal mountain snow: (GOOD). We started the season off strong with above normal snowfall in November, but a warm and slightly drier than normal December brought the snowpack below normal by the time we rolled into January. Fortunately a few well timed storms in December kept enough snow on the ground through Christmas break to keep most of the ski areas operational – something we did not have the previous December.
The snowpack didn’t really increase much though until the end of January when we saw our brief snow event, and again with the colder weather during mid February. The cooler and wetter weather in February brought tons of snowfall to the mountains and pushed us above normal again. Occasional cool systems through the month of March maintained a very healthy snowpack as we headed into spring. With all things considered I call this forecast a hit with the snowpack being at or above normal for the majority of the winter.
3.) Flooding: This was not as much a forecast as it was more of a warning or heads up. I’m more than happy to have not had a big flood this year – something I think everyone could agree on… Flooding events are significantly more common during La Nina winters and that’s just a fact. We had no flooding on the Willamette River this year; however, we did have some localized flooding on several of our smaller rivers and streams in the region with a wet system in mid December, and then on a larger scale again in the first half of January when the valley saw 2 inches of rain in 24 hours with a storm on the 12th. Odds favor we see another La Nina next winter which means I would again sound the alarm for the potential for major flooding as this seems to be a trademark of La Nina winters around here.
4.) Snowfall. (GOOD). If you recall, I mentioned how the odds of seeing at least a little bit of snow increases with La Nina winters. Sure enough we saw some with our surprise snow event on January 26th which dumped a quick 1 to 4 inches of snow (depending on location) across Salem, and of course we also had our historic ice storm in February. So while the snow was short lived right here in Salem, we still picked up both snow and ice this year reinforcing the statement that La Nina winters tend to deliver at least some snow or ice. The official snowfall total I’m going with is 2.5″ and 1.25″ of freezing rain.
As far as wind goes, right here in Salem we had no major windstorms (widespread 50mph+ gusts). That said, the region did experience several minor to moderate wind events which brought scattered power outages to the Willamette Valley each time with the January 12th storm being the strongest windstorm
Next I have a graphic with the biggest highlights from this past winter.
This second graphic shows how each month stacked up compared to average in both temperature and precipitation. I also included total rainfall per month, snowfall, and ice accumulation. Kind of a nice and neat way of seeing how each month faired.
Having both December and January on the much warmer side of things is unusual for a La Nina. As far as the precip went, the wet January and February balanced out pretty well the three drier months leaving us right at average for the whole period. Looking ahead, early indications are La Nina will return in the fall. This is represented on the chart below which shows how most first year La Nina winters are usually followed by a second La Nina winter.
If next winter is indeed a La Nina, I would put my money on a more active year with a decent chance of a wetter than normal winter. I would also expect at least some valley snow again, a higher than usual chance for major flooding, an increased risk of a significant windstorm, and a healthy mountain snowpack. But let’s not get too excited or ahead of ourselves lol. I enjoy every season and the weather each one has to offer. I’m looking forward to some beautiful sunny spring weather – maybe a few thunderstorms mixed in (if we are lucky), and then hopefully a nice and warm, but wildfire free summer. 🙂
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