Extended forecast

After a very thorough soaking over this past weekend we are back to dry weather. Mild, sunny & dry weather is common this time of year as it’s not really the full blown “wet season” just yet; however, gone are the endless days of dry weather. I have forecast details below, but first a quick look at our rainfall totals from the weekend storm. These totals are rounded so they don’t tell the whole story. Salem’s official total from the storm was actually 1.49″. It was both a good start to our rainy season, and it made a big dent in the wildfire situation here in OR.

EXTENDED FORECAST

1.) Slight chance of a shower Wednesday. A very weak system will be sliding by to our north with a few more showers up around Portland. By 5PM the sky should clear up with Wed ending on a dry note.

2.) Thu – Sun look dry. This will be a great stretch of time to either play or get things done outside. Keep in mind it’s the second half of September which means warm temps during the day cool off quickly at night with lows around 52 – 54°. This will likely be the last really mild and dry weekend of the year, so take advantage if you can!!

3.) Mon looks to be wet as showers return to the area.

4.) Tue could end up being a very stormy day, but will have more updates as we get closer. For now at least plan on it being wet.

Take care out there and be kind to each other!

Happy Thursday!

Good morning! It’s been a truly historic summer in regards to heat and record high temps. I’ll have a final look back at our incredibly hot summer another time. For now I’m back in the forecasting saddle and it feels great to be back! Forecasting is a huge passion of mine; however, for the past 6 weeks I’ve been absolutely swamped with my new teaching job.  In fact it’s been a long time since you’ve heard from me as summer is already a slow time of year regarding the weather not to mention the many hikes and little trips I took over summer in addition to all the work I’ve had.

So yes, I’m back and it’s good to be returning to the swing of things. Looking ahead it’s very clear to me that summer is over. Sure, we will still have plenty of 70 degree days and maybe even a few more 80 degree days, but have you noticed the chillier nighttime lows? The heat of the day doesn’t last real long this time of year. Speaking of cool nighttime lows, the coolest temps we have seen since early June are occurring this morning with lots of low to mid 40s. Salem was at 45° as of AM. In fact check out all of the chilly temps this morning across the region!

Here’s a look at the next 7 days with highlights and details below.

Highlights

I’m confident rain should move in after “dinner time” Friday night meaning your Friday plans should be good to go through at least 7 or 8PM – maybe even later.


This map shows Salem picking up .8″ of rain in only 6 hours early Saturday morning with more as we go through the remainder of the day.

Indeed it’s going to be quite the soaker Friday night & Saturday morning with close to an inch of rain falling! Saturday afternoon will feature a more typical shower/sunbreak pattern – maybe a rumble of thunder.

Showers increase on Sunday. Again, slight chance for a rumble of thunder or even a funnel cloud.

The rain shuts off abruptly Sunday night making for a dry Monday (maybe some morning fog), and then Tue will be sunny and mild.

Forecasting confidence goes down on Wed as it looks like we will be on the edge of a weak system. For now plan on a mostly cloudy day with a light shower or two – nothing big.

Your dry days for getting things done outside are today, Friday, and again next Mon & Tue.

That’s all I have for now. Feels great making a forecast like this again! We have another La Nina winter in store which means it’s likely going to be a busy year with plenty of storms and exciting weather events, and I plan on being the guy you can count on to keep you informed and in the know 😉 🙂

Take care and I hope you all are staying healthy and safe!

Thundershowers

It’s been a long time since I gave an update. Mostly because number one, it’s summertime and our weather has been virtually the same every single day this month with very few variations. Basically we have been in the 80s or 90s the entire month with a few “cloudier” days, but still dry -nothing crazy or life altering. The other reason is that like many of you I do my best to squeeze in some fun outdoor activities this time of year thanks to the dry weather which means less time to post.

This is all changing today as a fetch of monsoon moisture has moved in bringing muggier weather. This airmass is also bringing a chance for a few showers and even some thunderstorms now through tonight, and then again Saturday night and into early Sunday morning.

We have an additional shot at some widespread rainfall later next week, especially as we head towards Friday and Saturday.

Looks like things are picking up again. I’ll have a second update later this weekend with a full extended forecast and more details on our additional rain chances.

For now just keep in mind that a few showers and even a thunderstorm or two is definitely likely now through Sunday morning. Storms are even more likely over the Cascades and through central Oregon.

June 2021

There were 3 major highlights from the month.

Number 1.) The sizzling hot start to the month. Salem set a new record for June 1st with a high of 97°! The heat didn’t last long before we cooled off quite a bit. Then the rain came…

Number 2.) After such a dry spring we finally saw a good soaking with 1 to 2 inches of rain falling between June 11th – 15th. Our wettest stretch of days since the February ice storm.

Number 3.) June 2021 hands down will be known for the insanely hot heatwave near the end of the month which brought record shattering high temperatures three days in a row.

Those high temps were 27, 35, and an incredible 39° above our usual highs for those three days!! Truly remarkable. Here were the high temps across the entire region from Monday (June 28th).

You can see the sharp cutoff in temps out along the coast. Of course this was the day we had that 40 to 45 degree drop in temperature in a matter of hours as the cool ocean air finally flooded the valley ending our unprecedented heatwave.

There are three things which really made this heatwave historic.  The first is (of course) the insanely hot temps.  Prior to this event Salem had never in recorded history been above 108°.  We blew through the record on Sunday with a high of 113 and then we blew through that new record the very next day with a high of 117!!

The warm nights were also a major aspect of this heatwave. Salem’s low temp Monday morning was 76° and there were parts of the Portland metro that never fell below 80° that night. YIKES!!! The warm starts to the days allowed us to warm up quickly which leads me to the third and final aspect of this heatwave and that was the duration of the heat. 

The length of time it was hot each day added to the oppressiveness of the heat. Temps topped 90 degrees by 8AM on Monday! I’ve never seen that here before ever…   Typically on a really hot day we reach 100 degrees right around 3:30 or 4PM and will stay there for just a couple of hours at most.  This time though we experienced 100 degree weather for much longer all three days.  For example, on Sunday many valley locations were above 100 degrees for 7 to 8 hours.

June 2021 Summary

Overall we ended the month an astonishing 6.67° above normal!!! An incredibly hot month with 10 days above 90 and of course our three back to back to back 100 plus degree days. We just lived through one of the hottest months on record! I imagine you all (like myself) are tired of these “once in a lifetime” weather events. In less than a year we have had a historic fire and smoke disaster, a historic ice storm – which left many people without power for days and even weeks, a historically dry spring, and now a historic heatwave. Leaves us wondering what the next “historic” weather event here will be as we seem to be on a roll unfortunately….

What’s funny and odd is how June 2021 ended up being a wetter than normal month. Yes! I know it may not seem like that could be possible, but if you recall we had 5 very wet days right in a row earlier in June putting us at 1.72″ (138% of normal for the month). Goes to show how statistics can be misleading. Everyone will remember this month, and rightfully so, for the intense and historic heat, but few will recall that for the first time since February we had an above/wetter than normal month.

Forecast

Tuesday will be hot with highs in the low 90s.

Wed & Thu will be the nicest and coolest days of the week with AM clouds both days and highs only around 80 or 81°.

Fri & Sat will be hot again as we climb back into the mid 90s!

Next week should feature more typical summer weather with lots of 80s. Still no sign of any rainfall.

Stay cool and stay safe out there!

Monday update

A quick update for you. I’ll kick off by letting you know that yesterday Salem set a new record for the hottest temp ever recorded here with a high of 113°!!!! Today is running just as hot. Check out the hot temperatures as of 10AM across the PNW.

99° and it’s not even lunchtime yet…. That is just crazy! Fortunately there’s cooler air to our south with Roseburg sitting at a “cool” 85° indicating that relief is on the way. Cooler air will continue to push up from the southwest this afternoon.

Highlights

Number one: We have several more hours of intense heat to endure before we cool off dramatically. Our high temp today should occur closer to 2PM. It’s at that time when the cooler ocean air will finally push its way into the valley.

Number two: Gusty winds of 30 to almost 40mph will usher in fresh marine air this afternoon ending our hellish nightmare. Clouds may build with this push of cool air, but at this time I’m not expecting any showers… Tonight we should see lows dip to the mid 60s!

Number three: The rest of the week is still going to be hot. It just won’t be as hot with highs roughly 88 – 94° and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Hang in there a little bit longer. Relief is coming!

Heatwave update

The weather is absolutely wicked right now. Yesterday we set the record for the hottest temp ever seen here in Salem for the month of June with a high temp of 105°. Today we are seeing the hottest weather we have ever had here and it feels like it too. Check out our 4PM temps:

112°!!!!! What else can I say? It’s way too hot out there. 112 degrees is 4 degrees hotter than Salem’s all time hottest temp ever recorded, so we are smashing records today. Notice the central Oregon coast. It’s a nice 72 at Newport right now…

The only good news is Salem will “cool off” a little quicker than the Portland area will on Monday. We may see our high temp tomorrow closer to 1 or 2PM before cooling down some whereas today our high temp will likely come after 5PM.

Tue – next Sun: Highs 90 to 95 which is still really hot and way above normal, but definitely not as extreme as what we are seeing now. Lows should also dip close to and even below 60° after Tuesday making it easier to cool off at night.

Extreme heat

The forecast is still on track this afternoon. Basically we have “out of this world” record heat on the way through Monday with more regular Pacific Northwest heat continuing afterwards.

Here’s my latest 7 day forecast

A few thoughts for you all

1.) As mentioned in my previous forecast I can’t emphasize enough just how hot it’s going to be. It’s already hot out there as we are topping 90° right now, but it’s about to get even hotter. We could be looking at several hours of 100+ degree weather Sat, Sun, and Mon which would be a drastic difference from our typical heat waves were it takes all day to reach 100°. This is going to be rough. I’m telling you now in case you haven’t heard it enough elsewhere lol… The nighttime lows are also going to be much much warmer than normal making it tough to cool off houses and buildings at night. Please check up on and keep in mind those who do not have AC.

2.) I got to say it feels weird forecasting a high temperature of 111 as it would be hotter than anything we have ever seen here since records began in Salem over 120 years ago. Salem’s all time high temp is 108° recorded back in August 1981, and it blows my mind to think we could top that and maybe even by several degrees…

3.) The other thing to note is Salem may not be quite as hot as Portland for a few reasons. The biggest reason is there may be a push of slightly “cooler” marine air coming up from the south (yes, the south lol) Monday afternoon which should keep us several degrees cooler than Portland that day. Of course this only means we may be a few degrees over 100 whereas Portland could easily top 110 again that day too. Portland also has a more intense urban heat island effect than Salem keeping their temps a little bit warmer specifically in scenarios like this.

4.) There’s no sign whatsoever of below normal or even normal weather coming up. Basically nothing but hot weather for the next 10 plus days at least.

5.) Another reminder to be prepared should something unexpected happen like the power going out. If you’re able to, having a reasonable amount of supplies on hand is a prudent course of action.

6.) Conserve energy when possible to help ease the stress on the power grid.

7.) Lastly, please stay cool, safe and stay patient with each other. Heat has a way of making us short tempered and cranky. Try hard to be extra patient with those around you this week as it’s going to be brutal for everyone.