Author: bryanweather

Cold weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

First some “old news.” The storm we had Saturday did not disappoint. Salem had over 12 hours of 30+mph gusts with a top speed of 47mph making it our windiest storm this season! The rainfall was also quite impressive with Salem receiving just over 2 inches of rain between Sat & Sun.

A much cooler airmass also rolled in with this storm allowing for copious amounts of snow to pile up in the Cascades. This image shows 2 to 3 feet of snow have fallen widespread across the Cascades with closer to 4 feet on the highest peaks! 6 to 12 inches of snow fell in the Coast Range. Take note this does not take into account all the snow that fell this afternoon/evening.

Hoodoo went from no snow at all last Tuesday to a base of 36″. Amazing to see how quickly things have turned around! Very low snow levels will be the theme for at least 2 more days.

FORECAST DETAILS

TUESDAY: A few isolated showers, but more dry weather than wet with some sunbreaks too. Anyone could see some snow in the air during the morning hours, but extremely low chance anyone sees anything more than just that – no accumulation is expected.

WEDNESDAY

There are a few things that pop out at me, but we could flirt with a little bit of snow early Wednesday morning.

1.) This scenario will favor the western Willamette Valley in a similar way to the January snowstorm we saw last winter – only this time we SHOULD be a few degrees warmer. Look for a quick final update Tuesday evening.

2.) Whether it snows or not, we will be very close to freezing, so plan on a cold day with snow at least in both the Coast Range and the Cascades with snow levels between 500 and 1500′.

3.) For now plan on snow as being a possibility Wednesday here in the valley – specifically the western valley locations like Corvallis, south and west Salem MAYBE, as well as in Independence, Dallas, Newberg, and McMinnville. This map shows this well with snow coming very close to the valley floor on the western side of the Willamette Valley while locations generally east of l-5 see a mix or just plain ol’ rain.

Again, I’m not calling for sure snow at this point, but we will be awfully close Wednesday, so look for that update Tuesday evening.

THURSDAY: A few showers.

FRIDAY: Dry. This is your one and probably only totally dry day for awhile…

SATURDAY: Rainy. Mountain snow.

Christmas week

Taking a peak at next week (the week of Christmas), it’s looking like it could be even colder – maybe much colder (snowy too maybe…). I’m definitely going to be watching things closely, but it seems likely the cooler/colder pattern is here to stay.

Okay, take care and drive safely!

Extended forecast

On By bryanweatherIn Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS, Weather Year 2021/2022Leave a comment

There are multiple items peaking my interest this evening on the weather models. I have forecast details below including an update on the Cascades. Here’s our 7 day forecast for all of us visual people first. 😉

Details and Highlights

1.) Chilly showers tonight through Friday evening with snow levels dipping close to 1000′. Could see some ice pellets and or wet snow mixing in with the heavier showers.

2.) A powerful storm is set to move in on Saturday. Saturday will be a complete washout all day long. Winds will be strong during the early morning hours with gusts around 40 to 45mph. This storm will have quite the impact across the region with even stronger winds on the coast Friday night and Saturday morning (gusts up to 65mph), plus heavy mountain snow, and heavy rain in the lowlands. Expect some really terrible travel conditions this weekend.

3.) Very low snow levels Monday – Thursday of next week with several storm systems rotating through the region all while cool air is in place. What is certain is the Cascades are going to get hammered with a ton of snow. I’m fairly confident the Coast Range will see a quite a bit of snow as well.

4.) Notice I don’t have any snowflakes on the forecast yet. Right now I’m thinking it will be a little too “warm” for snow next week with the snow level staying above 1000′, but watch for new updates in case anything changes.

5.) Watch for black ice on roads this coming week as we flirt with below freezing temperatures, especially if we have some clearing during the nights.

The Cascades

There was absolutely no snow at Hoodoo Tuesday afternoon. Mount Hood had a little in the upper most elevations, but all of this is just now beginning to change. First off, checkout just how awful our current snowpack is. As of Dec 6th the entire state was running way behind in the snow department. Fortunately, it is very early in the winter season, and as I mentioned things are changing.

Now look at how much snow is expected to fall between now and Monday night.

Some 40 – 50 inches of snow up on the mountains in only 5 days!! That is a significant amount of snow in a fairly short timeframe. Travel across the mountain passes looks terrible this weekend, so use extreme caution if you find yourself headed that way.

This parade of storms will bring much needed rain to both Oregon and California – even southern California. Meanwhile, the Sierra Nevada will see feet and feet of snow along with many of the mountain ranges out west. Overall a wonderful pattern for building the snowpack, restoring groundwater, and replenishing the drought stricken regions out here in the western US. This map shows snowfall for the entire west coast now through Wednesday.

The downside to this will be the adverse impacts on travel. I suspect we will hear of highway closures in the coming week as heavy snow blankets the mountain passes across the region. This will effect travel and the delivery of goods – another reason I am all about staying prepared with food and supplies at home. Okay, have a great evening, and keep an eye out for more updates as the weather is looking to stay active!

Extremely mild and November 2021 recap

On By bryanweatherIn 2021, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, Weather Year 2021/2022Leave a comment

The second half of October and the first half of November were both quite stormy and active with several small to moderate wind events, plenty of rain, and mountain snow. Since then it has basically been a blowtorch around here. November 2021 ended up being 3.5° above normal which is fairly significant. We still managed to dip below freezing once on the 21st with a low of 30°, but overall it was quite mild with 9 days reaching at least 60°! In the precip category we came up a little bit short despite the very rainy and wet start to the month. 5.50″ was our grand total for the month which is 92% of the monthly average.

November is actually one of the months which became slightly drier when the new averages were updated this past year. Between 1980 and 2010 the normal rainfall for Salem during the month of November was 6.5″. When the 1980s were dropped and the 2010s were added, our average rainfall for November dropped by a little more than half an inch down to 5.95″. Meanwhile, both March and October have turned wetter over the past decade. Interesting don’t you think? The maps below show the changes in average precip for each of these months.

Total Salem rainfall for November going back to 1990.

1995, 1999, 2008, and 2016 all had really mild Novembers as well with temps very similar to what we have seen this year. All 4 of these years were also La Nina winters, and 3 of the 4 years listed ended up delivering at least one good snowstorm here in Salem. I’m sure some of you remember all the snow we had before Christmas in 2008, and then the winter of 2016/2017 had several snow events too, so a warm November does not at all mean a warm winter. It doesn’t guarantee a cold one either, but don’t be too worried about the lack of cold or mountain snow just yet. In fact weather maps are indicating this may be the last week of mild weather for quite some time, so get out there and enjoy it! 🙂

Quick forecast and look ahead

1.) Mild weather continues through Sunday; although today will likely be the last 60 degree day – finally…

2.) A few sprinkles are possible both Thursday and Saturday, but honestly it won’t amount to hardly anything.

3.) The nice weather ends Monday as a significant storm system rolls in bringing a good amount of rain. This storm will be the first of several storms bringing multiple rounds of showers, rain, and mountain snow for the rest of next week.

Wet November and stormy Monday

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

I know I’m at risk of losing popularity for saying this, but I have really enjoyed the rainy weather this fall. We were due for a really wet November. Saturday was the first totally dry day we have had this month. Hard to say if the second half of the month will be equally wet, but we are definitely on the “right track” for a wetter than average November. Here’s the extended forecast. Notice it’s not nearly as damp as what we saw last week.

Highlights and details

Monday is going to be a stormy day. A very potent cold front moves in Monday. This front will be a fairly strong with gusty south winds ahead of it. Gusts will range from 30 to 40mph. Expect a few hours of steady rain – some of which will be quite heavy and could lead to some isolated street flooding where drains are clogged. A sharp drop in temperature will follow behind the front as winds shift to the west northwest. Snow levels will drop from over 7000′ down to 3000′ Monday night; however, only a few inches of snow is expected in the passes as most of the precip with this storm will be fall on the warm side of the front.

Then we have a two day stretch of cool, sunny, and dry weather. Could end up with a bit of stubborn fog here in the valley, but it will definitely be dry and the mountains and coast should be very nice and sunny!

I’m keeping a close eye on Thursday and Friday as another dynamic storm moves across the state. This one could bring another round of very gusty winds to the region along with mountain snow.

Have a great week!!

October 2021

On By bryanweatherIn 2021, Weather Year 2021/2022Leave a comment

This past October was odd in a few ways. Salem received rainfall 18 days this October; however, the vast majority of that rain was not heavy enough to give us a “wet month.” We ended up with 78% of our normal rainfall at 2.71″.

As far as temperature goes, it was a near average October. at 0.3° below normal. There was no widespread freeze this month with our coldest temp only being 35° on the 12th. We have had some cold October weather in recent years, but not this year. There were no significant warm spells either. In fact, our warmest temp was just 73° on the 3rd.

On October 24th and 25th a powerful low pressure spun up several hundred miles offshore. There were no historic impacts right here as it was several hundred miles away; however, the storm still brought some locally heavy rain and a solid 24 hours of south/southwest winds which gusted between 30 and 45mph right here in Salem. This lead to some power outages and a few downed tree branches and limbs. Massive waves were also common along the coast during this storm. Below is an image from Mark Nelson over at Fox12 Oregon. It shows the strength and path of both “bomb cyclones” which effected the Pacific Northwest. Had the storms moved up the coast “inside” (east) of the red line then we would have seen significant damage, so I guess you could say we dodged a couple of big bullets with these two storms.

Satellite image of the first big storm on the 21st.

SUMMARY

All in all it was a fairly typical October with a mostly dry first half, and then the rainy season showed up right on cue the second half of the month. Those two big cyclone storms were hands down the highlights of this month otherwise nothing too crazy.

Soaking rains

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

November 2021 is running well above normal in the precipitation department with a little over 2 inches of rain so far this month. Definitely a La Nina feel out there lately. The mountains also picked up a solid foot of snow over the weekend, and now we are looking at what will be the rainiest couple of days we have seen this fall. Take a look at the estimated rainfall for now through Saturday morning.

Moderate to heavy rain moves in overnight. By the time you wake up Thursday morning, over an inch of rain will likely have fallen with almost another inch expected during the day on Thursday through Friday night. This storm is ushering in very mild weather which means rain even up in the mountains. There is also a chance of thunderstorms with the rain tonight. It’s going to be one of those stormy nights.

All this rain plus the melting of our mini snowpack in the Cascades will lead to some flooding. We are under a flood watch and I suspect there will be some minor to moderate flooding along some of our low laying areas, creeks, and streams.

I don’t expect major flooding and I don’t expect any flooding on the large rivers like the Willamette.

The rain shuts off Friday night fairly quickly leaving Saturday and most of Sunday dry. Some showers might sneak in Sunday late in the day. If you have plans this weekend the good news is you should have some decent weather to go with them.

Another storm system rolls in on Monday bringing more rain, cooler air, and mountain snow.

There you have it. Stormy with no big dry stretch in sight. Stay safe and watch for flooding.

Stormy fall weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We have a nice fall like storm approaching our coastline tonight, and an overall very active and exciting weather pattern shaping up for the next several days. Here’s a satellite image from late this afternoon showing the looming storm.

Impacts here in the mid Willamette Valley

Below is an estimated radar image for around noon tomorrow showing the heavy showers expected on Thursday.

EXTENDED FORECAST

Thursday: Quite stormy with the gusty winds and numerous showers.

Friday: Showers. Dry and maybe even partly sunny near the end of the day. Will cool off quickly once the sun goes down.

Saturday: Much cooler with steady rainfall. Breezy afternoon.

Monday: This day could end up being mostly dry.

Tuesday: More rain and wind arrives and will likely last through Wed also.

I’ve got a nice little October recap in the works. Looks to stay active for awhile, so anticipate more updates in the coming days.

Take care, be extra kind, and stay safe!!