Thanksgiving is approaching and I hope you all have had a really nice weekend!

The theme over the next several days is grey. I still see no major rainstorms coming our way, but cloud cover remains rather persistent for the duration of the coming week with occasional shots of rain Tuesday through Saturday. Details below:

This next image illustrates why I think Salem will be wet Tuesday – Thursday of this week, but not a total washout. These are 234 hour rain totals ending early Thursday morning, and notice the steep increase as one heads north of Salem. This has Salem receiving 0.5″ (half an inch of rain), but well over an inch for Vancouver, Longview, and Kelso.

The final image shows 24 hour rain totals ending 10PM Friday night. You can see the shading is spotty and there are more greens and less blues and orange colors. This tells us we will see scattered showers and downpours Friday, but once again, I see no huge soakings for the Salem area.

I have slightly lower confidence in the forecast for the weekend, but I can tell you it will be cooler. Currently, I’m going for scattered showers Saturday, and then dry Sunday. By Monday morning (December 1st) I expect low temperatures will dip into the upper 20s for the first time this winter. Despite the cool weather, Monday should be mostly sunny and dry with highs in the lower 40s.

The Cascades

Other than some brief snowfall Friday, there should be no travel concerns for the Cascades this week. Good for travel, but not so good if you’re waiting to hit the slopes. Still very early in the season and remember, warm Novembers don’t necessarily lead to warm winters. Take a look at this post here for some evidence regarding the topic of Warm Novembers.

For now though, no big mountain snowfalls this week.

Have a great and safe week!

As predicted, the “storms” the past couple of days have been extremely weak. Plenty of clouds, but only 0.19″ of rainfall this entire week with a few sunbreaks – just not enough clearing to really see the aurora borealis earlier this week.

It has been very mild lately. We are running 4 degrees above average for the month so far! So, what’s ahead? Well, the short answer is not much. Just a cooler version of what we have been seeing:

1. No big storms through Friday.
2. No strong winds or heavy rains through Friday.
3. No big dumps of snow for the Cascades through Friday.

Looking beyond next Friday, I see the potential for cooler weather, maybe a chance for some bigger rain producers, and a higher chance for mountain snow. More details to come as time goes on, but it does appear our very mild November weather will be ending.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds with scattered showers. High of 54°.

MON – WED: A few light showers Monday, and then dry. Similar to what we have been seeing only cooler: lots of clouds and a few sunbreaks here and there. Lows 35 to 40°, and highs in the mid 50s.

THU: The “strongest” storm of the week will affect us Thursday bringing steadier rain, breezy winds (nothing big though), plus a few inches of mountain snow. Morning low of 44° and an afternoon high of 54°.

Have a wonderful rest of your weekend and as always, stay safe!

We basically have three separate storms rolling through our region, but these storms are very small, and the energy with them is sort of splitting. What does that mean for us? Well, I thought about writing a whole paragraph trying to explain it, but let’s use some visuals instead. 🙂

This first image shows what a healthy consolidated jet stream looks like. This is from last week when we experienced strong gusty winds and heavy showers.

Notice the nicely packed lines butting up right into Oregon (indicated with the arrow). This consolidated jet stream directs most of the energy in the atmosphere into the same spot allowing stronger storms to develop. Think of this stronger and more consolidated jet stream as like being a train directing all of its force into one location. Now, take a look at the forecasted pattern for this Thursday.

What a mess! There are three separate pieces of energy hitting the west coast. This splits up the energy resulting in several weaker storm systems versus one large consolidated storm. Think of this setup as producing a bunch of spinning tops. Compared to a train, there is very little weight or force behind these spinning tops making it tough to forecast the details of where showers will hit, when they will occur, and how much rainfall will fall at any given location.

Forecast

Expect showers at times Thursday through Saturday with sunbreaks mixed in between. Best chance for dry weather during these three days will be on Saturday. By Sunday, the jet stream will sort of have its act together and should deliver a slightly stronger cold front to the region.

I see no strong winds, prolonged heavy rain events, arctic blasts, snow, or ice storms on the horizon for us. The next 7 days look pretty calm – just a little wet at times. Maybe a stronger storm next Thursday, but plenty of time for those details later.

Enjoy the rest of your week!

We had plenty of rain this past week. Salem picked up almost 3 inches of rain just in the first six days of the month, so a break in the rain feels deserved. What’s even better is we have already broken free of the morning fog and low clouds and we are in the midst of a nice sunny Saturday, in November! 🙂 Enjoy! Sunday looks great too, although the fog might last longer on Sunday, but still nice and dry.

MON: Still dry, but cloudier. I could see a few sprinkles or light showers falling in the northern Coast Range and Cascade Range, but the valley should stay dry. A much gloomier day though.

TUE: Morning fog returns and may be slow to burn away. Partly cloudy afternoon. High of 56°.

WED: Partly cloudy. Increasing clouds late in the day. High near 60°.

Lows during the next several days will range from 38 to 43°. Nothing out of the ordinary.

THU: Rain returns. High of 55°.

An easy forecast for the most part. The morning fog is really the only weather related issue that could influence our lives a little between now and Thursday.

Enjoy the beautiful weather!! 🙂

Headlines

• Steady rain lasts all night long adding up to around half an inch.
• Winds turn gusty Wednesday – 30 to 40mph.
• Thunderstorms with stronger gusty winds and very heavy downpours are likely through Wednesday night. An additional half inch or more of rain is possible from these heavy showers.

Details

Sometimes in my forecasts I casually reference weather events from past dates, but then I have to remind myself that most normal people don’t keep such detailed weather records as me lol… Well, this time I’m only asking you to remember back two Saturdays ago which was the day we experienced gusty winds, heavy downpours, a few power outages, and some lightning. I think this Wednesday will be very similar.

Where and exactly when the heaviest showers and thunderstorms hit is impossible to know, but once again I’m relying on this estimated radar image (valid for 2pm) to give us a general idea of what we are looking at. Take a look!

Bright orange and red colors indicate heavy rain, and this clearly shows a good chance for numerous heavy showers/storms across much of western Oregon Wednesday. Storms could cause winds to briefly gust higher than 40mph, dump very intense/heavy rainfall, and even put down some lightning strikes. Watch for ponding on local roadways as well due to clogged drains.

The Coast

Coastal locations even have a slight chance of a funnel cloud or, if it touches ground, a tornado. This is the time of year is when the coast can see some of these weak funnel clouds or tornados. Rare, but they do happen more often in fall here. I’ll bee keeping an eye out for reports from the coast. Of course, this storm is also lining up perfectly with our first round of King Tides for the winter season. This makes it easier for large waves to travel higher up the beaches. Storm watching is a TON of fun here. Just be careful out there! 🙂

The rest of the forecast

Thu: More rain much of the day.

Fri: A few leftover showers.

Sat & Sun: Completely dry.

Mon & Tue: Slight chance for a little rain, but no big storms.

Highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s.

Still no real threat for mountain snow at the pass level this week, so I’m not worried about that affecting your travel plans.

Okay, enjoy the rainy night, and stormy Wednesday!