It’s been a very chilly month with Salem dropping to 22 this past Saturday morning making it the coldest temperature we have seen so far this winter and it’s going to get even colder. Tonight my confidence has dramatically increased for the mid that a fairly significant winter storm will impact the Willamette Valley Thursday – Saturday morning. Here’s the extended forecast and then details below.

Nothing exciting or special for Tuesday. Showers will increase later in the day, but that’s really it.

Wednesday morning an arctic airmass will begin to descend from the north bringing extremely cold weather. We will actually be right on the edge of this arctic airmass; however, its’ so cold that even a glancing blow will drop temperatures considerably. Slight chance of a snow shower this day, but odds favor the snow would not stick here in town.

Plan on Thursday and Friday (maybe Saturday too) having awful weather and horrible travel conditions with widespread freezing rain here in Salem, and snow and ice in the Portland metro and gorge. The combination of extremely cold temperatures in the lower part of the atmosphere and the moist pacific storm poised to move in Thursday and Friday is going to cause a big wintry mess. Reference this graphic to see why freezing rain is possible even though temperatures will only be in the 20s. It’s not about how cold it is at the surface as much as what is going on further up in the atmosphere.

Thursday: Frigid arctic air continues to pour in all day long while a storm approaches from the west. At some point during the day a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will begin before quickly changing to just freezing rain. Here at the surface icy winds from the gorge will keep us in the 20s which means roads will also freeze up. Best guess would be precip starts during the afternoon hours.

Freezing rain will continue on and off through Friday night before Salem finally moderates above freezing early Saturday morning. This is the plan at least.

Things still up in the air

1.) How cold do we actually get before the storm hits? The colder it is the longer it will take to “warm up.”

2.) How much moisture falls while we are below freezing? Right now I’m going with somewhere around half an inch of freezing rain which while is far less than the Feb ’21 storm, but is still enough to bring down power lines and tree limbs. Closer to an inch is possible near Portland.

NEED TO KNOW POINTS

1.) Be prepared for power outages to last through Christmas day or beyond. I know this sucks, but half an inch of ice to an inch of ice is expected to accumulate between Albany and Portland with the gorge having even more. This storm will cause a lot of outages and work crews will only be able to work so fast.

2.) PLAN ON I-84 THROUGH THE GORGE CLOSING THESE DAYS. In fact plan on a number of road closures Thursday through Saturday morning all across our region.

3.) Honestly this is why it’s good to have supplies at home as stores will be running low on things for a few days. Just keep that in mind and be gentle and kind when out and about this week. I imagine stores will be busier than usual thanks to Christmas shoppers and people preparing for the storm.

4.) A warmup should take place on Saturday, but ugh….. This is honestly the part that has me the most worried. There is no real good push of onshore wind expected to help wipe out the cold air. What will happen is eventually the inversion should break and we warm up from above. *Refer to graphic above showing freezing rain setup. If the cold air is stubborn and slower to leave then we could have issues Saturday too, but for the moment I’m planning on Saturday being okay here in Salem.

Let’s not even worry about possible flooding after the ice storm, but keep it in the back of your mind that the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day is looking very stormy.

Phew!! I plan to update frequently this week. Stay tuned and stay safe and healthy out there!

First things first, a few pics from the graupel and snow showers we had Thursday haha. I know that’s not what you’re on here for, but they are fun pics and they help me document our weather events. 🙂 Here’s a pic of snow sticking right along the ocean, and the second picture shows snow covering surfaces in Lincoln City at the Inn at the Spanish Head.

Okay, time for the forecast. It’s trickier than our usual snow forecasts and well, our usual are already pretty tricky lol… We have cool air in place with more moving in through the gorge tonight. Next there is a system spinning off the coast of northern California. I’ve pointed out the main energy band which will eventually swing up our way. This band of precip will bring rain and snow to the northern Willamette Valley, but more on that below.

This next image illustrates just how difficult the snow prediction is with this storm. Notice how it shows snow falling west of Salem in cities like Independence, Monmouth, and Dallas while rain falls east of Salem in locations like Stayton and Sublimity. This of course puts Salem right on the line. Meanwhile a band of snow stretches across the Portland metro area, so you can see why this is so tricky. This makes the snow forecast from last Christmas look so easy lol…

The next two things to consider with this storm are the temperatures, and the exact location of where the heaviest precipitation sets up. Temps are marginal with this storm, and in order to get snow down to the valley floor Sunday we are going to need help from steady moderate to heavy precip. Steady precip allows for the atmosphere to cool more than it might typically do through a process known as “evaporative cooling.” Evaporative cooling is what lead to our “surprise” snow event here in Salem back in January 2021. Often times temps can drop from the upper 30s down to as low as 31 or 32 degrees within an hour or two. A similar thing occurred Thursday when we saw our heavy graupel and snow shower.

What you need to know

A rain/snow mix will likely start during the early morning hours (6 to 9AM). Depending on how heavy the precip is, it could turn to snow fairly quickly or even start out as snow. This scenario really favors the western Willamette Valley as well as locations north closer to the gorge; however, anyone in the valley could end up with some snow. This will be an extremely close call (again, reference the image above), but it’s time to make a guess, so right now plan on just a little bit of snow falling across the region. Just don’t be surprised if the snow is either short lived, and or ends up staying as a very cold rain or wet snow mix that doesn’t actually stick.

Snow will fall across the Cascades passes as well as through the gorge, so plan on snow covered highways in those regions.

Phew! Time to just see what happens… One of these days I’m hoping we will actually see a decently easy snow forecast, but this is not it. Happy Sunday!!

What a wild way to finish out November! Salem recorded a wind gust of 44mph last night making it the strongest wind so far this season! Several power outages occurred due to the strong winds too. It’s also been quite the soaker. Take a look at the rainfall totals as of 8PM:

The wild weather of course reached the Cascades. Copious amounts of snow have fallen in the mountains and there is more on the way. Take Hoodoo Ski Area for example which had only 5 inches of snow just 4 days ago. They currently have 36 inches with another foot yet to fall later this week. Definitely a great start to the ski season! Alright, on to the forecast!! 😉

Tonight and Thursday morning

Rain showers will transition to rain and snow showers and even just snow showers for some areas later tonight. These “estimated” radar images like the one I have below are great for showing the big picture. The big picture tonight is that just about any location in the mid Willamette Valley could see not only a snow shower, but perhaps some sticking snow as well. Here is the estimated radar for 5AM showing a mix of rain and snow showers moving through the region. More details below.

Highlights

Don’t expect the snow to stick, but don’t be surprised if you wake up to some either. That’s not meant to be a wishy washy forecast lol, it’s quite literally the truth. Again, reference the image above and you can see this is not a widespread snowstorm type of situation. This is just scattered showers/snow showers. Furthermore, temps will be very marginal (32 to 35°) which also limits how many people will see snow around here in the next 24 hours. Expect anything from nothing at all (more likely scenario) – 2 inches tops with better chances of seeing snow in the higher elevations around the valley.

Thursday

The middle of the day will feature sunbreaks and a few showers of rain, hail, graupel (which is similar to a mix of hail and snow we get sometimes), and possibly snow again in the heavier showers. Highs in the low 40s.

Friday

This day could start off icy depending on how quick or slow we are to dry out Thursday night. Regardless, we will start the day off chilly with lows 30 to 32° for most areas. Highs in the lower 40s.

My hope is to write a fresh forecast Thursday evening with an updated look into the weekend as we flirt with snow again possibly Saturday or Sunday. Currently there is still too much up in the air to say anything more about it.

Stay safe and have a wonderful Thursday!!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I really do think it’s so important we appreciate what we have in life whether it be good health, a place to sleep, or a working vehicle. Even more so, we should also be thankful for the people we have in our lives and I hope you all are able to do that this week.

Okay, I have a small, but important change to the forecast. What was originally just going to be “a few sprinkles Friday night and Saturday morning” has turned into more of a steady light rain which is now expected to last Friday afternoon through Friday night. This will not be a major storm by any means though

Saturday is still looking dry.

Sunday will be stormier with frequent showers and breezy winds out of the south southwest at 15 to 25mph.

Decent travel conditions through the Cascades this week with a little bit of snow briefly Friday night (1 to 2 inches), dry Saturday, and then several inches of snow with breezy winds Sunday. Sunday will hands down be the worse travel day in the mountains this week. Passes will likely stay snowy through next week too. Speaking of next week, it is currently looking both cold and maybe even snowy too….. Nothing certain yet 😉 So stay tuned for updates!