More snow is on the way for at least some of us here in the mid Willamette Valley, and just like what we have seen several times over the past week, elevation will play an important role in who gets snow and who doesn’t.

Timing

Late tonight (after 1 or 2AM) through Tuesday morning.

What to expect

 The higher hills around the valley including west and south Salem as well as the hills both up towards Amity and outside of Silverton could see up to 4 inches tonight.  Anyone, even locations down to the valley floor could also pick up some accumulating snow tonight; however, I’m thinking 2 inches is probably the max amount anyone on the valley floor gets with this storm.   Because of the showery nature of this system, there will also be locations that just don’t get any snow, but it’s close to impossible to nail down those places ahead of time.

There should be a bit of moisture to work with tonight through Tuesday morning aiding our chances for snow. Additionally, the airmass as a whole is colder tonight than the previous two nights adding to my confidence that someone in the Willamette Valley picks up a few inches of snow tonight. Where these bands of precip/snow setup will determine the big “winners” for getting snow, but everyone should prepare for snow to impact your morning commute Tuesday.

Time to see what happens, but my best guess is telling me the Salem area stands a decent chance of seeing accumulating snow tonight/Tuesday morning.

Recap

Anyone could see up to 2 inches of snow with 3 to 4 inches likely once you get around 5oo feet or higher. Some neighborhoods could miss out on the snow, but I have a feeling tomorrow more of us will see snow than those who don’t.

Of course the mountains will continue to get hammered with snow. Expect another 8 to 12 inches up in the Coast and Cascade Ranges.

The remainder of Tuesday here in Salem will be very chilly with temps in the upper 30s to around 40 coupled with additional showers of rain and snow. Maybe a snow shower or two Tuesday night before we dry out for Wednesday morning. Expect a widespread freeze Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 20s. Brrrr! Winter is just not done yet.

Today was a perfect example of the battle taking place between the increasingly strong sun angle and longer days versus the frigid airmass. I’ve been watching the forecast closely still, and yes, there are numerous chances for more snow coming up these next several days; however, because of the time of year, it does get harder and harder for snow to really stick during the daylight hours. Not impossible as we saw up in Portland this past Wednesday, but certainly more difficult than say the middle of December. Keep these things in mind as timing of storms will be important in factoring how much snow we get over the next couple of weeks, and yes, you read that right – the next couple of weeks. Strong signals on the forecast charts indicating that the pacific northwest stays in a very chilly pattern for the foreseeable future.

Alright, enough chit chat lol. Time for a forecast. 😉

Tonight/Sunday: As far as snow goes, I’m thinking we get a lot of snow in the air with maybe some slush during the middle of the night, and up to an inch of snow in the highest hills around town. During the day expect periods of rain and showers/brief downpours. My gut is telling me this will be nothing real exciting here in Salem as we will have too much of a south wind keeping us warm enough for just rain. The image below actually conveys my feelings pretty well. Blue is snow, greens and yellows represent rainfall, and it shows Salem right in the battle zone of rain and snow. It’s very rare for us to get a lot of snow when we are in that “battle zone.” Plus, like I mentioned earlier, a southerly breeze will keep us just warm enough.

Now, the Portland metro area will likely be a very different story as they could easily see an inch or two of snow before finally warming up Sunday morning as the south wind will have less of an influence up there.

Sunday during the day will feature rain and or rain/snow mix, but nothing that accumulates below say 1000′. Tons of snow up in the mountains though, with 8 to 12 inches falling between now and Sunday night!!

Below is a cool satellite image showing the snow cover on Friday. Notice a pretty substantial gap in snow coverage between the Portland metro area and Salem, and then very little snow south of the Salem area. Remember, Salem sits just below the 45th parallel line and is flanked by hills to the west and south.

Cool to see and look at. The Coast was also hit extremely hard by snow with nearly 8 inches falling in Lincoln City! Check out this snowy looking highway 101 in downtown Lincoln City. A rare sight for sure!

That’s all for tonight. I know there are many more chances for snow coming up this week, and you should plan on snow possibly effecting your lives at times in the coming days, but I just can’t tackle all that tonight haha, so stay tuned for future updates and take care. 🙂

It’s always interesting to see things progressing in real time versus what is forecasted, and on a personal note it’s both exciting and really nice to see things working out at least close to what I had in mind lol. So far so good. Today will certainly be a wild day for some of you with gusty winds, hail, downpours of rain, plus tons of snow up in the mountains. Tonight temps cool off even more dropping the snow level close to the valley floor. Anyone could see snow tonight/Wednesday morning, but the larger and more significant chance for snow comes Wednesday night through Thursday morning. More on that later.

First let me show you a few images which will really help convey our weather for the next 3 days. This first image is for 4PM this afternoon. Basically what I see here are gusty winds as indicated by the tight isobar lines on the map, and it’s true, winds will be gusty today, especially higher up in foothills and mountains. Next, I see lots of blue in the Cascades which equals lots of snow up there, but I also see a skinny strip of blue in the Coast Range telling us the snow levels will indeed be very low.

Next is an image for 4AM Wednesday morning. This shows a bit of pink between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range which indicates even lower snow levels. This could easily be a 2 hour delay type of day as snow falls in the higher hills. This will be a showery setup, so even valley floor locations could see sticking snow in this scenario if a heavy shower were to pass over; however, the higher hills around town are definitely favored in this situation. Overall I expect nothing to an inch or so here in Salem, but probably little more than that.

At some point Wednesday evening a new low pressure system forms offshore. Very cold arctic air will be pulled from the north as well as from the east through the Columbia River Gorge. This sets us up nicely for widespread snow. By the time we reach Thursday morning (roughly 4AM), we are in well within a band of snow thanks to this perfect combo of cold arctic air from the northeast and moisture wrapping around a low pressure system. A storm like this could give anyone in the Willamette Valley several inches of snow. Trying to figure out where the heaviest bands of snow set up is tricky, but for the moment is seems like locations between Albany to Portland have a good shot at scoring some decent snowfall. Check out the image below showing this potential.

Lastly, here’s a quick glance at what temps were as of 7AM this morning across the region.

Have a safe and wonderful Tuesday! 🙂

I’ll have a nice more detailed update either tonight or early Tuesday morning. There is a LOT going on, and the next 3 days are going to be pretty wild by our mellow Oregon standards.

Tuesday

Salem area: Frequent showers/downpours with heavy rain, hail, and graupel (mix of snow and hail essentially) are all likely during the day Tuesday. Sunbreaks in between, and gusty winds 30 to 35mph at times. Some thunder is even possible. A wild day for sure!

The Coast Range: Snow levels will be low Tuesday – roughly 1000′, but lower at times which means Coast Range highways and roads will likely see heavy snow through the course of the day. The jet stream will be ripping Tuesday aiding orographic lift which always helps enhance precipitation in the mountains. 3 to 6 inches of snow on Tuesday in the Coast Range.

The Cascades: These mountains are going to get hit especially hard. High winds coupling with heavy snow all day long Tuesday will make for awful travel conditions. I highly recommend you do not travel this day if possible. Looking at 1 to 2 feet of new snow this day depending on elevation with wind gusts up to 45mph at times.

Wednesday and Thursday

Snow levels will lower to near the valley floor this day as onshore winds lighten up and colder air moves in. All this happening while snow showers move ashore. Anyone could see snow this day; however, accumulations will be spotty below 500 feet. I hold the chances for Salem seeing measurable/accumulation snow this day HIGHER than what we saw last week when we had our flirtation with snow. All day long snow and rain/snow mixed showers will fall with sunbreaks here and there in between.

Meanwhile it will be a second day of very snowy passes both in the Coast and Cascade Ranges. Another 4 to 8 inches in the Coast Range, and another foot or more in the Cascades.

At some point Wednesday evening, we switch to an even colder northeasterly wind which will transport frigid air from the north into our region. A new low pressure system forms somewhere just offshore along the edge of this arctic boundary setting the stage for widespread and heavier snow here in the Willamette Valley.

Between Wednesday night and Thursday morning anyone in the Salem area could pick up a few inches of new snow with this storm as it slides south. Seems like Thursday could end up being a rare snow day around here, but again, timing and the exact location of this low will determine how much snow falls and where it falls, so stay tuned for those updates.

Phew! It’s going to be a wild few days, so get ready!

Lots of talk about next week’s cold and snow, and for good reason. Right now it appears we will see the coldest temperatures we have seen since December, and this time chances for snow are looking better and better. That’s next week though, and plenty of time for things to change in any direction.

In the meantime, I wanted to give the “all clear” signal for this extended weekend – well extended for some. Nothing is really happening now through Monday. Nights and mornings will be cold, days will be chilly, but dry and with sunbreaks each day.

Travel to the coast. over the Cascades, and in central Oregon looks good as well. 🙂

Monday night and Tuesday will be windy and rainy with heavy mountain snow. A terrible period of time for travel, so be home by Monday evening if possible. I’ll have an update this weekend with cold and snow details, but for now it’s still too early to try and pin down specifics. Just keep in mind that we are going to be much colder next week and snow is also looking increasingly likely for much of the valley and even the coast…

Take care and stay safe! 🙂