Author: bryanweather

The middle of summer

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS, Weather Year 2022/2023Leave a comment

It may be hard to believe, but with the exception of a few brief rainy days, western Oregon has largely been dry and warm since mid April. We are now in the heart of summertime here in the Willamette Valley. We have one item to address and that is a chance for some light showers next Monday and Tuesday.

Summer in Salem is a reliably dry time, but it’s normal to have a drippy day mixed in every great once in awhile, and that’s pretty much what is happening for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Here’s our extended forecast:

I don’t have raindrops on Tuesday, but don’t be shocked if a few fall from the sky that day too. Monday however, will feature the primary shower threat. Notice it’s right back to summer afterwards.

Sometimes it can be interesting to look back into the past for a glimpse at the larger picture as it can offer us a different perspective. This first chart shows total rainfall for each July here in Salem going back to 1970.

The wetter Julys back in the 70s and 80s versus the consistently dry Julys since the 90s really stands out to me. If you are a long term resident of Salem, than maybe you remember Julys being a little bit “rainier” than what we have seen lately, and you would be right. Between 1970 and 1993, we had six years where our July rainfall topped the one inch mark, but we have not topped one inch since ’93 – going on 30 years of Julys having less than an inch of rain. Seems like a drying trend, and to it is, but were Julys always wetter in the past????

Check out this next chart which shows total July rainfall by decade:

Seems like the 70s and 80s were more of an anomaly, and not so much “the usual.” The Julys of the 1950s saw a cumulative rainfall total almost identical to the total saw in the 2010s. July has always been (in my opinion) the peak summer month. Days are long with daylight stretching well into the evenings (which I love), and the weather is reliably dry and warm. August of course is a great month too, but those late evenings start to shorten a bit, and of course there is the “well known” idea that it always rains during the State Fair. We really are in the heart of summer right now. The cool and possibly drippy downturn next week will be very short lived, and before anyone knows it, we will be right back into the 80s. Enjoy and stay safe! 🙂

Active weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We are starting the day off with partly cloudy skies, but as the day goes on and the sun warms the surface a little more, showers, downpours, and even some thunderstorms will become increasingly likely. Some of these downpours could be really heavy, so just keep that in mind if you’re out and about today.

Expect some light rain and a few PM showers tomorrow, and then we dry out for Wednesday. Thursday through the weekend is looking to stay dry for the valley, but if for any reason that appears to change again I’ll be sure to let you all know. I still think the Cascades see a few thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Speaking of the Cascades, take a look at this wintry scene at the top of Hoodoo this morning.

That’s it for now. Have a wonderful day!!!

Wet weather returning

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

For the first time in over 40 days, we finally have rain and showers in the forecast. Western Oregon has been incredibly dry with locations like Los Angeles having seen more rain than we have since May! Anyway, things are finally changing.

Here’s a look at the next 7 days.

Today: Mostly dry. Probably not much more than some isolated sprinkles.

Sunday: WET. The action picks up a bit with showers and even some thunderstorms moving through the region. Some really nice downpours. Unfortunately, they will be just in time for Father’s Day…

Monday: WET. More thunderstorms and downpours with sunbreaks in between.

Tuesday: WET. Steady rain morning rain will transition into a few afternoon showers.

Wednesday: DRY. Temps should climb back into the lower 70s with partly cloudy skies.

Thursday – next weekend: DRY. Lower confidence for this time frame as we will be on the edge of a pesky upper level low. In “English” that means we could see some thunderstorms drift over our region if the low sets up in the right spot. Too far away to know yet. For now I’m going with a mostly dry forecast, but still hanging on to a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temps will be warm with highs close to 80. Chance for thunderstorms will be highest up in the Cascades. Even if we do see a storm during this period of time, the majority of these days will still be dry.

Happy weekend, happy end to the school year, and happy Father’s Day! 🙂

Dry summer like weather

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area ForecastLeave a comment

Summer arrived super early this year. We have hit or surpassed the 90 degree mark 5 times so far this spring with the first occurrence happening back on April 28th when we hit 91°. We reached it 3 days in May with two of those days topping out at 93°F. I remember those days well as we cooked in our classrooms at work, and then just last week we hit 91 on Tuesday. Overall May was a very warm month ending 4.2° above normal!

The more concerning issue has been the extremely dry weather. Since May 6th, we have only seen a sprinkle here or there, but nothing widespread. If we don’t see some good soaking rains soon, it could be a really tough summer. Salem ended the month of May with only 27% of our usual rainfall! Adding more evidence to the case, check out this map showing total rainfall over the past 30 days.

Western Oregon is one of the driest locations on this map. Heck, even Death Valley, California has picked up more rain than us during this span of time, so you can see why we could be in trouble if we don’t get some good rain soon.

Extended Forecast

We will see if it actually rains next weekend, but for now enjoy the warm and dry weather the best you can. 🙂

The week ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

I have a nice quick glance at our week ahead for you all. Let’s start off with today.

Mon: Lots of clouds and a few showers. Sunbreaks are possible later today, and there is a growing chance for some heavy showers and or storms from roughly Salem northward towards Portland late this afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of dropping significant amounts of rain as well as the possibility of thunder and lightning.

Tue & Wed: Both days will be nice with partly cloudy days conditions and maybe a few PM showers (or thunderstorms). The mountains will stand a higher chance of seeing any sort of showers or storms, but just like we saw this past week, anyone could see a storm. Just keep in mind that the majority of both these days will be dry.

Moving on, Thu and Friday will be nice with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Warmer than normal, but still fairly comfortable summer like weather.

Sat & Sun: The heat strikes back hard with highs soaring into the low 90s! Yes, it’s going to be a hot weekend!

If you feel ripped off because you didn’t see a storm this past week, well then welcome to the club lol. It’s just how it goes around here. The big winners were locations around the Eugene region, locations between Amity and McMinnville, and several Portland metro area neighborhoods. All those places experienced at least a little bit of thunder and lightning last week.

Okay, there you have it.

Happy Monday! 🙂

Setting the stage

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

Today is turning out to be a bit warmer than previous days this week, but the sun won’t last. A disturbance up in the atmosphere is rotating towards us right now. Couple it with the increased heat we are seeing today, and I expect numerous showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and lasting through the night, and even through the first half of Thursday. There will be a lot of lift in the atmosphere which helps to sustain storms even into the nighttime hours. These storms will be moving in an unusual direction for our region moving from the southeast to the northwest (so Cascades towards the valley and coast). Keep your eye to the sky as the next 24 hours could get sorta wild for our part of the world with gusty winds, heavy rain, and thunder and lighting all possible for at least some of us.

Friday through Sunday: We will see lots of cloud cover, and some showers at times with notable dry breaks in between.

Okay, Happy Wednesday!! 🙂

Spring showers

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Did you enjoy the warmer/hotter weather? It’s getting to be that time of year where we have more and more warm and sunny days and fewer rainy days. Our toasty high temperature of 91° on Friday actually fell short of the record for the day. Back on April 28th, 1926 Salem reached a scorching (for April) high of 93°. Of course, if you’ve been outside or had any windows open then you know we are done with the heat for now.

The forecast for this week is a bit tricky as a cutoff low is expected to send waves of showers over the area at sort of random times throughout the week making my job difficult. I’ll do my best to provide details, but keep in mind that timing of these showers will be extremely hard to pinpoint.

Main message

Monday through Friday: Same routine almost every single day with a period of rain or showers, but with lengthy dry breaks in between. This type of pattern is a decent thunderstorm producer too, so don’t be surprised to see a storm at some point this week. I have details for each day below:

Today and Monday

A lot of clouds, noticeably cooler, but should stay almost completely dry. Theses two days have the smallest chance for rain of all the days this week. Highs in the low 60s. As of noon today most places west of the Cascades are still in the upper 50s. Nice and warm east of the mountains though. 🙂

Monday night/Tuesday

This timeframe will feature our first real shot of seeing rain or thunderstorms. Highs on Tuesday should reach between 70 and 73°.

Wednesday

This day is currently looking mostly – if not totally dry. Expect highs in the low 70s. 🙂

Thursday

I’ve seen a lot of signs indicating this day will feature more showers with an elevated threat for thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s.

Friday

Cooler and cloudy with showers likely. Highs barely reaching 60°.

Expect similar conditions for next weekend too. Not a washout, but not totally dry either. Meanwhile, up in the Cascades it will be too warm for snow this week, so no concerns for snowy roads; however, heavy rain at times from thunderstorms could still cause travel issues if you find yourself up there this week.

Have a great rest of your day!!!